Welcome to the most awkward and exclusive club of fantasy football players – those of use who are in the finals, in leagues that actually play in Week 18, and that use team defenses. It’s likely that most of you are in the second week of a two-week finals match on ESPN (where that setup is the default). After a lot of movement in the last two weeks, there are only a few QB situations that could look different this week.
- The Colts will start QB Sam Ehlinger this week, who entered last week’s game after Nick Foles suffered a rib injury. Ehlinger did not impress in two games as a starter in Weeks 8 and 9, though he did secure his first passing touchdown of the season last week.
- Dolphins QB Teddy Bridgewater had his finger dislocated last week, and is considered day-to-day. If he doesn’t play, Skylar Thompson, who appeared in relief, will start. If you’re considering the Jets’ defense, pay attention to the injury reports – Bridgewater is an OK matchup, but Thompson is a very good one. Tua Tagovailoa is not in the running to play in Miami’s final regular-season game.
- The Eagles are in line to start Jalen Hurts at QB this week, after losing both the games that he missed with a shoulder injury. This is big for the Eagles, who can secure the division and the NFC No. 1 seed with a win over the Giants. If they lose, the Cowboys could win the division by beating Washington. The Eagles losing would also open the door for San Francisco to take the No. 1 seed with a win over the Cardinals, even if the Eagles hold on to the division title by seeing the Cowboys lose.
- The Cardinals started David Blough last week, after Colt McCoy showed concussion symptoms in practice. We don’t yet know if McCoy will be available this week, but given that the Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs, I would be surprised if we don’t see Blough again.
Week 18 D/ST Projections
As always, Week 18 is a weird one. No team has officially announced that they’ll bench starters (outside of the “no reason to rush back an injured player” category), many are liable to. Many of the same teams with nothing to play for are bad anyway, so good matchups are easy to find. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter or Mastodon.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | |||||||||
| 1 | SF | ARI | 40 | -14 | 13 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 8.98 | 99% |
| 2 | PHI | NYG | 42.5 | -14 | 14.25 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 8.34 | 94% |
| 3 | IND | HOU | 38 | -2.5 | 17.75 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 7.01 | 21% |
| 4 | MIN | @CHI | 45.5 | -4 | 20.75 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.01 | 34% |
| 5 | JAC | TEN | 38.5 | -6.5 | 16 | 2 | 1.3 | 6.96 | 45% |
| 6 | DAL | @WAS | 41.5 | -4 | 18.75 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 6.79 | 94% |
| 7 | LAC | @DEN | 40 | -3 | 18.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 6.86 | 49% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | |||||||||
| 8 | HOU | @IND | 38 | 2.5 | 20.25 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 6.73 | 1% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | |||||||||
| 9 | NO | CAR | 41.5 | -3.5 | 19 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.66 | 27% |
| 10 | PIT | CLE | 39 | -3 | 18 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6.57 | 41% |
| 11 | SEA | LAR | 41.5 | -6.5 | 17.5 | 2 | 1.3 | 6.54 | 28% |
| 12 | BUF | NE | 42.5 | -7.5 | 17.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 6.53 | 93% |
| 13 | NYJ | @MIA | 38 | 1 | 19.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.5 | 37% |
| 14 | CIN | BAL | 42.5 | -7 | 17.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6.49 | 32% |
| 15 | TB | @ATL | 40.5 | 3 | 21.75 | 3 | 1.2 | 6.45 | 75% |
| 16 | CLE | @PIT | 39 | 3 | 21 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.12 | 36% |
| 17 | BAL | @CIN | 42.5 | 7 | 24.75 | 3 | 1.2 | 5.91 | 93% |
| 18 | MIA | NYJ | 38 | -1 | 18.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5.86 | 24% |
| 19 | LAR | @SEA | 41.5 | 6.5 | 24 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 5.81 | 32% |
| 20 | DEN | LAC | 40 | 3 | 21.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 55% |
| 21 | CAR | @NO | 41.5 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.57 | 13% |
| 22 | ATL | TB | 40.5 | -3 | 18.75 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5.52 | 5% |
| 23 | KC | @LV | 53 | -8.5 | 22.25 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.48 | 90% |
| 24 | NE | @BUF | 42.5 | 7.5 | 25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.38 | 81% |
| 25 | WAS | DAL | 41.5 | 4 | 22.75 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.36 | 29% |
| 26 | TEN | @JAC | 38.5 | 6.5 | 22.5 | 2 | 1.2 | 5.25 | 48% |
| 27 | GB | DET | 49.5 | -4.5 | 22.5 | 2 | 1.2 | 5.19 | 40% |
| 28 | CHI | MIN | 45.5 | 4 | 24.75 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.73 | 3% |
| 29 | DET | @GB | 49.5 | 4.5 | 27 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4.66 | 7% |
| 30 | ARI | @SF | 40 | 14 | 27 | 2 | 1.2 | 4.42 | 18% |
| 31 | NYG | @PHI | 42.5 | 14 | 28.25 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.18 | 49% |
| 32 | LV | KC | 53 | 8.5 | 30.75 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3.25 | 20% |
Matchups
- SF vs ARI: The 49ers defense got lit up by the Raiders last week in Jarett Stidham’s first start. Props to Stidham, but it doesn’t really shake my confidence in starting San Francisco against the Cardinals. Colt McCoy might return this week, but I think another week of David Blough is more likely, given that Arizona has nothing to play for except squashing San Francisco’s shot at the No. 1 seed.
- PHI vs NYG: With Jalen Hurts back, it’s hard to imagine the Eagles as anything short of unstoppable in this game. While they haven’t announced anything yet, the Giants are locked for the No. 6 seed in the NFC, so they could bench their starters, especially if the Eagles take an early lead. The Vegas implied total of just 14.25 seems low for the Giants after a good offensive showing last week, but the possibility that they bench starters is a factor in that number.
- IND vs HOU: The Davis Mills-led Texans managed just a field goal last week against the Jaguars, and Jags’ defense is pretty weak. This is an offense I would target with almost any team, and an average defense like the Colts certainly fits the bill.
- MIN @CHI: There’s a real possibility that the Bears let Justin Fields and other starters rest next week, since the 3-12 team doesn’t have anything to play for. They can’t even really play spoiler, since the Vikings are locked to win the division, but don’t have a path to the No. 1 seed (even if they end up tied at 13-4 at the top of the table, they would lose to the Eagles, Cowboys or 49ers on tiebreakers).
- JAC vs TEN: The Titans are in line to start QB Joshua Dobbs again, who made his first start last week. He led the team to just 13 points against a tough Cowboys defense, and turned the ball over twice. This is a playoff win-and-in for both teams, but it’s in line to be a low-scoring one with a total of just 38.
- DAL @ WAS: The Cowboys have everything to play for this week. If the Eagles lose, a win for the Cowboys would mean the division title, and those two games will be played at the same time. (They would also have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in that scenario, if the 49ers lose to the Cardinals). The Commanders, by contrast, are eliminated from playoff contention. Wentz will probably start, though seeing Heinicke again isn’t out of the question with nothing really on the line for Washington. Both are good matchups for a great defense.
- LAC @ DEN: The degree to which the 4-12 Broncos are a disaster is well-known at this point. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Russell Wilson doesn’t play – I’m sure he’d love to be done with this season. If Brett Rypien starts, that actually probably a downgrade to the Chargers DST.
- HOU @ IND: The Colts will start Sam Ehlinger, after Nick Foles sustained a rib injury last week. This could be a very low-scoring game, with both teams incentivized to lose, for draft pick reasons.
- NO vs CAR: The Panthers are another team that could bench their starters, in which case the Saints would be a solid fantasy start. If Sam Darnold does end up playing, however, I’m not interested.
- PIT vs CLE: The Steelers will be playing for a chance at a wild card spot – they’ll make the playoffs if they win, and the Patriots and Dolphins both lose (all three games happen at the same time). The Browns, by contrast, suck and have nothing to play for.
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