Skip to main content

NFL Championship Round Picks: Against the Spread, Over/Under & Prop Bets (2023 Playoffs)

NFL Championship Round Picks: Against the Spread, Over/Under & Prop Bets (2023 Playoffs)

We’re down to the final four teams for the NFL Playoffs, with the San Francisco 49ers traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Kansas City to face the Chiefs this Sunday. We asked our experts for their most confident spread, over/under and prop bet picks.

2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide partner-arrow

FantasyPros Mobile Apps: Dominate your NFL, MLB and NBA fantasy leagues from anywhere

NFL Championship Round Picks

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

Eagles -2.5 vs. 49ers
Philly boasts the 3rd-best record ATS at home this season (7-2, 77%) with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
Andrew Erickson

Eagles -2.5 vs. 49ers
Brock Purdy has done an admirable job carrying the 49ers this far into the playoffs. However, with both RBs dealing with injuries and Dallas exposing some weaknesses Sunday, I think Purdy’s Cinderella story ends here. Plus, Philly is a tough environment. Purdy has yet to experience that road environment in his career.
Joe Pisapia

Eagles -2.5 vs. 49ers
The Eagles have the fifth-highest point differential at home in the NFL, outscoring their opponents by an average of 8.1. The Eagles are a juggernaut, ranking sixth in EPA per dropback on offense while also sitting top five in total yards, EPA per play, and EPA per dropback on defense. The Eagles roll this week.
Derek Brown

Chiefs +1 vs. Bengals
Yes, the Bengals beat the Chiefs 27-24 both in last season’s AFC Championship Game and in Week 13 of this season, but the Chiefs still offer terrific value as a home underdog, even with QB Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high-ankle sprain. I trust Andy Reid to draw up a gameplan that accounts for Mahomes’ decreased mobility. It seems strange to me that the market appears unfazed by the Bengals’ offensive line injuries. Cincinnati’s offensive line was terrific last week, pushing around the Bills’ defensive front seven in the snow, but the Bengals might have a harder time this week on a dry field against a Chiefs defense that had 55 sacks during the regular season.
Pat Fitzmaurice

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

SF-PHI under 46.5 points
This matchup features two defenses that finished top-6 in points allowed per game this season. Both defenses allowed fewer than 20 points per game.
Andrew Erickson

CIN-KC over 47.5 points
Two prolific QBs and a history of games over 50 and the current 47.5 is just too low. You can even get 46.5 at some houses.
Joe Pisapia

SF-PHI under 46.5 points
While Philadelphia has been seventh in overall pace since Week 15, the 49ers have been 29th. Over this same span, the Eagles have ranked 12th in explosive pass rate and 15th in explosive run rate allowed. If the 49ers can’t dial up big plays, their likely limited number of possessions could limit the number of points they put up on the board, thus dragging the total to the under.
Derek Brown

CIN-KC over 47 points
The last two Bengals-Chiefs games both produced 51 points. The total for the Chiefs-Bengals game in Week 13 was 53.5 points. The total for Sunday’s AFC Championship is clearly being driven down by Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury, but I don’t think the injury is worth more than a point or two. I see value in the over here.
Pat Fitzmaurice

Q3. What is your single favorite prop bet for this weekend’s games and why?

 Isiah Pacheco OVER 47.5 rushing yards
Isiah Pacheco has rushed for over 47.5 rushing yards in nine of his last ten games since becoming a focal point of the Chiefs rushing attack in Week 10.
Andrew Erickson

Ja’Marr Chase OVER 6.5 receptions
Chase had seven or more catches in every game from Week 5 through the end of the season and a history of lighting up the Chiefs.
Joe Pisapia

Ja'Marr Chase Recs Prop

Travis Kelce OVER 78.5 receiving yards
Kelce has yet to finish a postseason game with less than 95 receiving yards since 2020 (seven straight playoff games smashing the over). Kelce had a ridiculous 50% target share last week (17 targets). Since Week 15, Cincinnati has been 24th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
Derek Brown

Brock Purdy UNDER 220.5 passing yards
The Eagles held opposing quarterbacks to 207 passing yards per game during the regular season, and they limited the Giants’ Daniel Jones to 135 passing yards last week. Philadelphia’s pass rush racked up 70 sacks during the regular season, the most by any team since the 1984 Chicago Bears had 72. The Eagles have held opponents to a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Philadelphia’s run defense is far more vulnerable than its airtight pass defense, so expect the 49ers to go with a run-heavy gameplan. I doubt Purdy comes close to this number.
Pat Fitzmaurice

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by player with our Prop Bet Analyzer partner-arrow

Join the FantasyPros Discord Server!

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

More Articles

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

3 min read

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Up - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Article