Has the end of fantasy football season got you talking weather reports with co-workers? Have no fear because fantasy LIVES ON in NFL.com’s fantasy football playoff challenge. Draft players from the remaining playoff teams and rack up multiplier points by correctly predicting which teams progress furthest—a game of wit and strategy like no other.
Here are my 11 players to target for the Playoff Challenge. For this list, I include four WRs, three RBs, two QBs, and two TEs.
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NFL.com Playoff Challenge Strategy, Advice & Players to Target
We discussed Josh Allen as the locked-and-loaded fantasy QB1 in the Wildcard Round, and he did not disappoint, throwing for 350-plus passing yards and three touchdowns. With the double-point bonus fully intact for the Bills quarterback, there are zero reasons to get away from him in the NFL PLayoff challenge in a home matchup versus the Bengals. From Weeks 11-16, when Cincy was facing legitimate quarterbacks and passing games – aka not the Baltimore Ravens – their defense ranked 21st in pass DVOA, facing the 5th-most pass attempts, 5th-most passing yards per game (267 yards/game) and the second-most air yards per game (317.5/game). Against the Miami Dolphins, Allen attempted 13 passes of 20-plus yards downfield for a whopping 608 total air yards.
Alright, folks, the time is now to cash in the double-points bonus for Patrick Mahomes, and a juicy 30-point implied team total on deck versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. From Weeks 6-15 — essentially excluding matchups versus horrible QBs later in the year that Jacksonville played — the Jaguars allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs (23.0) and 281 passing yards per game. And in this exact same matchup back in Week 10, Mahomes shredded the Jags’ defense to the tune of 331 passing yards and four passing TDs. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and own a bottom-5 red zone defense on the road this season. KC has the second-best red-zone scoring offense this season.
If you have an empty running back slot in your playoff challenge roster, look no further than Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon for some much-needed relief. No team has allowed more targets to RBs this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. McKinnon ranks second on the team in target share since Week 12 (16%), averaging 4.3 receptions, 5.3 targets, and 43 receiving yards per game. McKinnon also led the Chiefs backfield in snaps played in Week 18 (37%) while finishing first in targets the last time he faced the Jaguars (23% target share). We saw McKinnon get unleashed during the Chiefs’ 2021 playoff run, and the team looks ready to ride their exciting scat back with everything on the line yet again.
Chances are you already have Christian McCaffrey locked into your RB1 slot. But if you need an elite RB2 option looking primarily at scoring points this week, Saquon Barkley is the guy to target even if the Giants don’t advance. And that’s because no RB has more of a bell-cow role than Big Blue’s R1 among the remaining playoff teams. In the Wildcard Round, Barkley only had nine carries for 53 yards but scored two rushing TDs. He earned a 90% snap share and caught five balls on six targets for 56 receiving yards. Even though the matchup is tougher – since Week 12, the Eagles’ defense ranks 13th in run defense DVOA, allowing the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (74) at 4.1 yards per carry – the volume Barkley should garner will allow him to produce in fantasy at sub-10% ownership. The Eagles rank inside the top 10 in terms of receptions and receiving yards to opposing RBs since Week 12. And if the Giants are to stand any chance of coming away with an upset, you better believe Barkley will play a massive role in it. They have the offensive line up front that can create some holes for Barkley to burst through. The Giants boast the No. 2 run-blocking matchup in Week 20 per the 33rd Team’s Trenches Matchup Tool.
The last time we saw Miles Sanders on the gridiron, he delivered a very underwhelming performance. He rushed for just 33 yards on 11 carries against a Giants defense that rested key starters back in Week 18. The Eagles RB1 only played 40% of the snaps, just slightly ahead of Boston Scott, who rushed for 54 yards on nine carries while playing 33% of the snaps. The team went away from Sanders in the second half, giving him just three carries. However, we have seen Sanders’ production fluctuate up and down all year, so I’d go back to him in a super-plus matchup that we have already seen him go off in. Sanders rushed for a season-high 144 rushing yards versus the Giants back in Week 14. And since Week 12, the Giants have allowed the 6th-most rushing yards (118) at 5.1 yards per carry. The Eagles own the No. 1 run-blocking matchup in Week 20 per the 33rd Team’s Trenches Matchup Tool.
Sanders has also seen his usage spike after down games all year long. In four games following rushing, totaling under 50 rushing yards, Sanders has posted rushing lines of 27 for 134, 21 for 143, 17 for 144, and 21 for 65. An average of 21.5 carries for 121.5 rushing yards. Expect a big game from Sanders and lock up his 2x multiplier heading into the NFC Championship with the Eagles’ heavy home favorites.
Giants No.1 cornerback Adoree Jackson‘s return to the lineup helped limit the production of Vikings superstar WR Justin Jefferson in the Wildcard Round. Suppose we see something similar with Jackson potentially slowing down the production of Eagles No.1 A.J. Brown. In that case, we could see DeVonta Smith go nuclear versus a Giants defense that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs since Week 7. Smith owns a 26% target share averaging six catches for 65.5 yards and eight targets per game in two games versus Big Blue this season. And in those two contests, Smith saw season-highs in slot snap rate. A potential move inside should open the target and production floodgates for the Slim Reaper, as the Giants allowed 83% of their fantasy points to Vikings WRs from the slot in the Wildcard Round.
Is Playoff Gabe Davis a real thing? You better believe it. The Buffalo Bills’ big-bodied WR turned on the afterburners versus the Miami Dolphins, making up for a lackluster Week 18 performance that saw him flop with three catches for 39 yards on just 10 targets. In the Wildcard Round, Davis tied Stefon Diggs with a team-high nine targets, catching six balls for 113 receiving yards and 1 TD. He saw over 160 air yards. And over the last four weeks, Davis actually leads the Bills with a 24% target share and 31% air yards share. He’s averaged four catches for 63 yards on nearly eight targets per game. I’d expect the opportunities to keep coming Davis’ way against the Bengals secondary that ranks 31st in DVOA versus No. 2 WRs this season.
The best way to attack the 49ers’ defense? Through the air. San Franciso’s elite run defense makes them a quintessential pass-funnel unit, with teams electing to throw opposed to running into their stout front seven. As a result, the 49ers have allowed the second-most fantasy points and second-most receiving yards to WRs since Week 7. And the majority of WR production has come from inside, where safety Jimmie Ward has allowed the most targets, catches, and receiving yards while in slot coverage. The matchup foreshadows a massive day incoming for Dallas’ No. 1 WR, CeeDee Lamb, fresh off a solid Monday night outing.
Since Week 8, Dallas is allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to WRs and the second-most to points per game to perimeter WRs (19.9). They have had no methods of addressing the injuries in their secondary, which has led them to rank 32nd in DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs, allowing a league-high 64 receiving yards per game. With Deebo Samuel back in the fold, Brandon Aiyuk returns to No. 2 WR status, which could benefit him in this matchup. He ran a route on 97% of the dropbacks in the Wildcard Round while leading the team with a 35% air yards share (110 air yards). And despite a tough matchup against one of the league’s best defenses on the perimeter, Aiyuk posted three catches for 73 yards on five targets versus Seattle. And he left production on the table after dropping a TD in the back of the end zone. Wouldn’t bet on that happening two weeks in a row.
Was taking the zero through the Wildcard Round worth rostering Travis Kelce with a 2x multiplier for the Divisional Round? You better believe it. The Jaguars’ defense simply cannot contain or stop tight-end production. The Jaguars rank dead last in DVOA versus tight ends this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to TEs lined up in the slot. Kelce ranks 1st among TEs and sixth among all players in yards from the slot in 2022. Wheels way up for the No. 1 tight end in fantasy football.
As great as the matchup is for Kelce, Dallas Goedert’s might be even better. The New York Giants have been a punching bag for tight ends in fantasy throughout 2022, ranking 31st in DVOA versus the position. They have been destroyed by T.J. Hockenson twice over the last month, with a solid Goedert performance thrown in the mix during Week 18. DG went 6 for 46 on seven targets in the regular season finale after missing the Week 14 matchup versus Big Blue. In their last four games, the Giants have allowed the most fantasy points and an absurd 83% catch rate to the TE position.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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