NFL Conference Championship PrizePicks Player Prop Bet Predictions (2023)
Continuing through the NFL playoffs, I will provide my top player props from PrizePicks.com. Sign up now!
From under-or-overs to more-or-less, there’s really no better time to dive into player props with the fantasy football season concluded. Let the game sweats keep coming!
Prizepicks is also offering a freebie prop as well this week with Joe Burrow‘s passing yards prop set at just 0.5 passing yards. Never a better time now than to start playing! Use promo code: PR-REQ653D
Note that lines may change from the time this is published, in which case I will update the numbers in accordance with what the lines are on the platform, along with any newer props that I think are worthy of targeting.
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Best NFL Conference Championship PrizePicks Prop Bet Predictions
A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): OVER 69.5 receiving yards
- The 49ers’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points and third-most receiving yards to WRs since Week 7 (186 per game).
- Before the Divisional Round, Brown was Jalen Hurts‘ go-to WR the three games beforehand, compiling an absurd 35% target share and 55% air yards share.
- In fact, before last week, AJB had surpassed at least 70 receiving yards in six straight games, including Hurts’ last four regular season starts.
- Brown has almost been exclusively used downfield with six targets of 20-plus air yards and a team-high 14.2 aDOT over the last three weeks.
- San Fran has been devastated versus the long ball all year ranking 24th in DVOA versus deep passes thrown up to 15 yards downfield.
- And it’s been No.1s doing the majority of damage considering the 49ers have allowed the fourth-most targets (8.9) and fifth-most receiving yards to opposing No. 1s this season.
- Strongly consider pairing Brown’s OVER with Hurts’ OVER 238.5 passing yards. The 49ers are allowing the third-most passing yards per game (265) since Week 7.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): OVER 47.5 rushing yards
- Pacheco has rushed for over 47.5 rushing yards in nine of his last ten games since becoming a focal point of the Chiefs’ rushing attack in Week 10.
- Against the Bengals back in Week 13, Pacheco led the Chiefs with 14 carries for 66 yards and 1 rushing TD (62% opportunity share).
- Jerick McKinnon had 8 carries for 51 yards. The two backs totaled 117 rushing yards on 22 carries (5.3 yards per carry).
- KC was also uncharacteristically more run-heavy in their first matchup vs. CIN with a pass rate over expectation of -3%.
- They ran on early downs more often (52%) and averaged a higher EPA rushing (0.158) than on dropback passes (-0.150).
- With a more run-centric approach probable due to Patrick Mahomes‘ ankle injury, expect Pacheco to soar over the egregiously low rushing total.
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI): UNDER 6.5 receiving yards
- Sanders has gone under 6.5 receiving yards in his last five games played.
- He has totaled just three targets over that same time span, running a route on just 30% of dropbacks.
- Sanders has also run fewer routes than Kenneth Gainwell (39% route participation) and has been out-targeted 11-to-3.
- Bet the under on Sanders underwhelming receiving usage against a defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA versus RBs in the passing game.
- And parlay it with Gainwell’s OVER 6.5 receiving yards — a number he has hit in eight of his last nine games played. He is clearly the preferred pass-catching back in the Eagles’ offense.
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