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NFL Conference Championship PrizePicks Player Prop Bet Predictions

Jan 26, 2023
Isiah Pacheco

Continuing through the NFL playoffs, I will provide my top player props from Sign up now!

From under-or-overs to more-or-less, there’s really no better time to dive into player props with the fantasy football season concluded. Let the game sweats keep coming!

Prizepicks is also offering a freebie prop as well this week with Joe Burrow‘s passing yards prop set at just 0.5 passing yards. Never a better time now than to start playing! Use promo code: PR-REQ653D

Note that lines may change from the time this is published, in which case I will update the numbers in accordance with what the lines are on the platform, along with any newer props that I think are worthy of targeting.

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Best NFL Conference Championship PrizePicks Prop Bet Predictions

A.J. Brown (WR – PHI): OVER 69.5 receiving yards

  • The 49ers’ defense has allowed the most fantasy points and third-most receiving yards to WRs since Week 7 (186 per game).
  • Before the Divisional Round, Brown was Jalen Hurts‘ go-to WR the three games beforehand, compiling an absurd 35% target share and 55% air yards share.
  • In fact, before last week, AJB had surpassed at least 70 receiving yards in six straight games, including Hurts’ last four regular season starts.
  • Brown has almost been exclusively used downfield with six targets of 20-plus air yards and a team-high 14.2 aDOT over the last three weeks.
  • San Fran has been devastated versus the long ball all year ranking 24th in DVOA versus deep passes thrown up to 15 yards downfield.
  • And it’s been No.1s doing the majority of damage considering the 49ers have allowed the fourth-most targets (8.9) and fifth-most receiving yards to opposing No. 1s this season.
  • Strongly consider pairing Brown’s OVER with Hurts’ OVER 242.5 passing yards. The 49ers are allowing the third-most passing yards per game (265) since Week 7.

A.J. Brown Reception Yards Prop Bet Analysis

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): OVER 47.5 rushing yards

  • Pacheco has rushed for over 47.5 rushing yards in nine of his last ten games since becoming a focal point of the Chiefs’ rushing attack in Week 10.
  • Against the Bengals back in Week 13, Pacheco led the Chiefs with 14 carries for 66 yards and 1 rushing TD (62% opportunity share).
  • Jerick McKinnon had 8 carries for 51 yards. The two backs totaled 117 rushing yards on 22 carries (5.3 yards per carry).
  • KC was also uncharacteristically more run-heavy in their first matchup vs. CIN with a pass rate over expectation of -3%.
  • They ran on early downs more often (52%) and averaged a higher EPA rushing (0.158) than on dropback passes (-0.150).
  • With a more run-centric approach probable due to Patrick Mahomes‘ ankle injury, expect Pacheco to soar over the egregiously low rushing total.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI): UNDER 6.5 receiving yards

  • Sanders has gone under 6.5 receiving yards in his last five games played.
  • He has totaled just three targets over that same time span, running a route on just 30% of dropbacks.
  • Sanders has also run fewer routes than Kenneth Gainwell (39% route participation) and has been out-targeted 11-to-3.
  • Bet the under on Sanders underwhelming receiving usage against a defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA versus RBs in the passing game.
  • And parlay it with Gainwell’s OVER 6.5 receiving yards — a number he has hit in eight of his last nine games played. He is clearly the preferred pass-catching back in the Eagles’ offense.

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