It’s that time again! Time to look at the new crop of dynasty assets coming to a roster near you. It’s still very early in my own research, and I’m fully admitting that my mind can be changed, but at this stage, there are already some players I’m getting worried about. Not talent-wise, but price-wise.
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Expert Consensus 2023 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft Rankings: Top-50 
Overvalued Rookies to Avoid (2023)
After looking at some early mocks, here are some players in FantasyPros current rookie ECR that I’m likely avoiding if their cost stays where it’s at when I’m on the clock.
Will Levis (ECR QB3)
Levis is somewhat polarizing in both NFL and dynasty circles. It feels like most people don’t think he’ll be a stud, but some think he’s the next big thing at QB. His size is definitely top notch while his mobility and arm strength can remind people of a Josh Allen archetype. That being said, he’s got a little bit of work to do to become a solid starter in the NFL.
Levis’ accuracy leaves a little to be desired and his landing spot will play a large role in his dynasty impact. I don’t mind the QB3 ranking, but I’m probably avoiding him at his current mid-first value in most SuperFlex mocks that I’ve seen and waiting until 1.11 to pull the trigger on him.
Zach Charbonnet (RB3)
Charbonnet is big, strong, and fast. He looks like a prototypical running back when you watch him play. I’m not knocking the talent here, he’s got that in droves. What worries me about him is that he tends to need open space to make plays.
In today’s NFL ,space is at a premium and I’m worried that Charbonnet’s lack of quickness through the hole could be an issue. He could prove me wrong, but at RB3 I’d rather go a different direction knowing what we know at the moment.
Ultimately that’s what it comes down to. Drafting Charbonnet as the 3rd running back off the board is just a little too risky for my liking. The fact that we don’t yet know what offensive scheme he’ll be a part of worries me too. He’s definitely a first-round dynasty rookie talent, and I wouldn’t mind having him on my roster, but there are other running backs I prefer that are going after him in the early mocks I’m seeing.
Devon Achane (RB4)
Achine is currently ranked 4th in ECR right behind Charbonnet. Again, I don’t hate the talent, I just don’t love the value. Achane is smaller than most workhorse running backs and doesn’t feel like someone a team can lean on to get three yards in a cloud of dust. However, the way that the NFL is going that might not be as much of a bad thing as it used to be.
Achane is fast and shifty and can score from anywhere on the field. He’s one of those guys that you will enjoy watching as he racks up yards on your fantasy team. But will you start him in your lineup?
I feel like Achane is a perfect 1B to someone else’s 1A. Part-time running backs are becoming very common these days, but at RB4 in the rookie draft I’d really prefer drafting someone who I don’t have to worry will be splitting carries. Again, don’t hate the talent, just not a fan of his cost right now.
Quentin Johnston (WR2)
Wide receiver is often a crapshoot and this year is no different. Johnston is one of those guys that just screams first-round NFL draft talent but who could disappoint in the wrong system. Johnston is huge, 6’4″ and 215 lbs, and personifies the phrase “everything is bigger in Texas.” But that’s not quite enough for him to be WR2 this early in the process.
Johnston is ranked behind consensus WR1 Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and rightfully so in my opinion. However, he’s ranked ahead of prospects that I think are better in Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers.
Johnston could end up proving me wrong here, but I just like the talent and depth at the wide receiver position this year more than most. In other classes, WR2 would make sense, but from what little I’ve seen so far, I’m not sold on it just yet. He’s someone I’m keeping an eye on though, that’s for sure.
Michael Mayer (TE1)
Ah, tight end. That mythical position in dynasty that always gets talked about but rarely comes through. Historically, tight ends have taken longer to adapt to the speed of the pro game. Outside of a few rare examples like Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram, rookie tight ends rarely make a splash for dynasty purposes. This year’s entry for rookie TE to potentially bust is unfortunately Mr. Mayer.
It’s not that I don’t like drafting tight ends in dynasty, I just don’t like doing so with an early pick in a deeper draft at other positions. Mayer could be really good in the NFL, but the odds are against him. When I’m drafting rookies I try to play the odds whenever possible.
I’m fine taking Mayer in the second, but in some mocks, he’s going at the back of the first, which is just too much for me at the moment. Maybe my mind will change once we know his draft capital and landing spot, but I doubt it.
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, follow him @AndrewHallFF.
