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NFL.com Playoff Challenge Super Bowl LVII Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

NFL.com Playoff Challenge Super Bowl LVII Advice (2023 Fantasy Football)

Has the end of fantasy football season got you talking weather reports with co-workers? Have no fear because fantasy LIVES ON in NFL.com’s fantasy football playoff challenge. Draft players from the Super Bowl and watch the points increase with multiplier bonuses on players from the Chiefs and Eagles you could have drafted back at the start of the playoffs.

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2023 Fantasy Football Best Ball Draft Advice

NFL.com Playoff Challenge Strategy, Advice & Players to Target

Here are my eight players to target for the Playoff Challenge optimal lineup. For this list, I include two WRs, two RBs, 1 QB, 1 TEs, 1 DST and 1 Kicker.

Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)

Since Week 10, the Chiefs are allowing the 5th-most fantasy points per game to QBs (19.5) allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards (33/game) and 223 passing yards per game (21st). Their defense has struggled mightily in the red zone all year ranking 30th in red-zone scoring rate. The Eagles offense ranks 3rd in red-zone scoring offense (69%). Jalen Hurts has also seen his rushing numbers return to form, with an average of ten carries for 36.5 yards and 1 rushing TD in his last two games played. Good for 19.8 expected fantasy points per game and for the starting nod in my lineup.

Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)

The Eagles rank 24th in DVOA vs RBs in the passing game and inside the top half of the league in terms of receptions, targets, and receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs since Week 12. Christian McCaffrey earned a 27% target share in the conference title game, catching all four of his targets for 22 yards. The Eagles’ defense is much better versus the run, ranking 12th in run defense DVOA, allowing the 7th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs (77) at 4.5 yards per carry. Therefore I side with Jerick McKinnon as my preferred Chiefs RB in this contest. He was out-snapped last week by Isiah Pacheco but that was due to injury. Reports are he is fully healthy for the “Big Game” setting him up nicely to expose a weak part of the Eagles’ defense. Recall that since Week 10 – excluding the Divisional Round where McKinnon randomly had zero targets in a game that Patrick Mahomes missed time in – McKinnon ranks 2nd on the team in targets receptions overall and in the red zone. A healthy McKinnon has also consistently out-snapped Pacheco since Week 14.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI)

I’m sure it’s shocking to some that Miles Sanders isn’t the selection from the Eagles backfield. But the matchup calls for Kenneth Gainwell to have a big game especially if the Eagles face a negative game script. The Chiefs have bled fantasy points to RBs in the passing game, allowing the most receptions to the position per game (six) and third-most receiving yards (46.9) this season. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon combined for 6 receptions, 7 targets, and 19 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game versus the Chiefs…with both guys catching 3 passes. And for four straight games, Sanders has played 40% of the snaps after never playing fewer than 50% of the snaps from Weeks 1-16. Since Week 15, Sanders has also run fewer routes than Kenneth Gainwell and has been out-targeted 14-to-4. Bet on Gainwell’s receiving usage against a defense that ranks No. 28th in DVOA versus RBs in the passing game as the preferred pass-catching back in the Eagles’ offense. He has at least two receptions in four of his last six games (67%). Smells like an over prop bet to me.

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A.J. Brown (WR – PHI)

The Chiefs have allowed an average of 13 receptions per game to wide receivers, a bottom-10 mark in the league this year and since the start of Week 10. And the last time KC failed to hold an opposing No. 1 WR to fewer than five catches was in Week 15 versus the Texans. They’ve allowed at least five receptions to an opposing No. 1 in every other game since Week 12. Brown has been Jalen Hurts’ go-to WR in the last four games they have played together excluding the Divisional Round, with a 33% target share and 47% air yards share. In the NFC Championship Game, Brown commanded a 33% target share and 39% air yards share on eight targets, catching four for 28 yards (all in the first half). Simply put, AJB is going to get the rock and make the Chiefs’ secondary pay. Kansas City ranks 31st in DVOA against No. 1 WRs this year, allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing alphas (81.2). They also run predominately man coverage, which Brown has dominated. Versus man coverage, Brown owns a whopping 37% target share (4th), 34% target rate per route run, and 42% air yards share. His 3.62 yards per route run versus man coverage ranks third-best among all WRs this season.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

With so much investment in the Eagles’ offense already, doubling down on a concentrated passing game is the optimal move here with DeVonta Smith. Philly’s 1B wide receiver leads the team in yards, receptions, and targets over the last four games, and since Week 10, he has twice as many red-zone targets (12) as any other Eagles player. I’d rather take the points with Smith and his solidified role than risk any of the Chiefs’ WRs with so much uncertainty. Besides, you already have KC’s No.1 pass-catcher locked and loaded.

Travis Kelce (TE – KC)

You have been riding Travis Kelce throughout the NFL Playoff Challenge, so no need to get cute here. Even though Dallas Goedert has an intriguing matchup. KC ranks last versus tight ends in the slot this season. Goedert earned three slot targets last week. He ranks 4th in PFF receiving grade for TEs from the slot this season, plus he owns a 50% slot rate since Week 16. But Kelce’s vice grip as the best tight end in fantasy is still too good to pass up with a 32% target share in KC’s last three games versus an Eagles defense that ranks ninth in TE targets faced this season.

Harrison Butker (K – KC)

Harrison Butker has been money for the Chiefs in the playoffs thus far hitting all five of his field goal attempts, four of which have been 40-plus yard kicks. He’s hit at least three extra points and/or double-digit field goals in every game since Week 16, making him the best kicker option on Super Bowl Sunday. The Chiefs have an inferior red-zone defense compared to the Eagles, making it more likely that Philly attempts fewer field goals inside Kansas City’s 20-yard line.

Eagles D/ST

The matchup in the trenches heavily favors the Eagles’ defensive line against the Chiefs’ offensive line. Kansas City is likely to drop back more than the Eagles anyway, giving Philly’s pass rush more of the opportunities they need to create chaos for Patrick Mahomes. Their defense finished second in pressure rate and led the NFL with a whopping 70 sacks during the regular season.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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