NFL DFS Picks: Super Bowl LVII Showdown Advice (Eagles vs. Chiefs)
Break out the wings (No, boneless wings are not wings. They are adult chicken nuggets) and Buffalo chicken dip. It’s Super Bowl time, baby! From betting on the length of the National Anthem to the color of Gatorade tossed on the winning coach, it’s a wonderful spectacle to enjoy with skin in the game via betting and DFS.
We’ll watch Patrick Mahomes continue to build on a possible Hall of Fame career with a W or Jalen Hurts firmly establish himself as one of the league’s best young signal callers. Only one Kelce brother will walk away from this game with a giant grin and a diamond-studded ring.
Enjoy it, fam. It’s the last game of the 2022 NFL Season.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Super Bowl LVII (Chiefs vs. Eagles)
Let’s take a look at a few of our favorite NFL DFS Showdown Captains.
Favorite Showdown Captains
NFL DFS Player Picks & Notes
Check out all of our Super Bowl LVII player break downs here >>
Jalen Hurts: Since returning from injury, Hurts hasn’t been the same player. In three games of action, he’s completed 60.7% of his passes with 6.0 yards per attempt and a 54.8 PFF passing grade. With more time to recover from his shoulder injury, the hope is that Hurts more closely resembles the quarterback who was sixth in PFF passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, 12th in big-time throws, and ninth in adjusted completion rate this season (minimum 150 dropbacks). Since Week 14, the Chiefs have been 11th in passing yards per game, fifth in EPA per drop back, and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed. There’s a path to a ceiling game for Hurts if he is closer to 100%. Since Week 15, the Chiefs have deployed zone coverage on 52-55% of their corners’ snaps. Hurts is 11th in EPA per play against zone this season. Since Week 13, the Chiefs have allowed 6.6 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns to Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Davis Mills, and Trevor Lawrence. Mahomes will be the more popular of the two quarterbacks for showdown lineups. I do side with Mahomes if you’re looking to prioritize one of them or you’re only able to fit one quarterback into a lineup. Still, I’ll try constructing two quarterback lineups as much as possible to be contrarian.
Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell has been on a tear in the playoffs. He’s played 37-42% of the snaps averaging 14.5 touches and 97.5 total yards. His 42% of the snaps last week matched his season-high. Gainwell has been explosive when he’s been utilized. He has seven games with at least five rushing attempts. In four of those contests, he managed at least 3.20 yards after contact per attempt. He has taken 17.7% of his carries for ten yards or more this season. Gainwell has breakaway run rates of 45.5% and 35.4% in his two playoff games this year. Gainwell has been the passing down back in the playoffs with a 10.4% target share, 35.8% route run rate, and 1.84 yards per route run. This is the perfect matchup to deploy Gainwell heavily in the passing game. The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions, the fourth-most receiving yards, and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. Since Week 16, Gainwell has led the team in YAC per reception. Gainwell is a priority flex play, and a fantastic contrarian captain play.
Travis Kelce: Kelce has continued his playoff prowess this season. He’s seen a 34.2% target share averaging 11 receptions and 90.5 receiving yards with a 50% end zone target share and 2.62 yards per route run. Kelce will be among the most popular captain plays on this one game slate for good reason. He’s had at least 95 receiving yards in seven of his last eight playoff games. In those eight games he’s scored nine touchdowns. Since Week 15, the Eagles have been 23rd in catch rate and 26th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.
Dallas Goedert: Since his Week 16 return, Goedert has had an 18.6% target share, a 14.3% end zone target share, and a 79.9% route run rate. Since Week 15, the Chiefs have been fourth in catch rate, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 23rd in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Goedert is among the elites at the tight end position in the NFL. He is fourth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run among tight ends (minimum 30 targets). His biggest asset is his after the catch ability. Goedert ranks third in YAC per reception and ninth in missed tackles forced (minimum 30 targets). Kansas City has bled out YAC all year as they have struggled to tackle. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most YAC and sixth-most (tied) missed tackles in the NFL.
Favorite Showdown Flex plays
- DeVonta Smith
- Isiah Pacheco
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Miles Sanders
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Kadarius Toney
- Jody Fortson
- PHI DST
- KC DST
- Harrison Butker
NFL DFS Player Picks & Notes
Check out all of our Super Bowl LVII player break downs here >>
Miles Sanders: Sanders has seen his usage take a small tumble in the playoffs. He’s averaged 35% of the snaps with 14 carries and 66 rushing yards per game. Sanders remains a near zero in the passing game, with only one target over his last two games. Sanders hasn’t seen more than one target in a game since Week 14. Sanders’ usage could easily flip in this game, as we’ve seen him log at least 20 carries three times this season. This game could be another venue for him to see plenty of rushing work. Sanders ranks 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in missed tackles forced, and 28th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 100 carries). Since Week 14, Kansas City has ranked ninth in rushing success rate and tenth in rushing yards per game, but they have also been 23rd in EPA per rush and 16th in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is a fine flex and large field captain play with 25-30 DK point upside.
Kadarius Toney: Toney is still dealing with a high ankle sprain. Yes, we saw Mahomes still play at a high level as he managed his high ankle issue, but playing quarterback with this ailment versus wide receiver is a completely different equation. Per our own Dr. Deepak Chona, Toney could be more limited as “high ankles at only two weeks do decrease production.” In Weeks 16-20, Toney had an 11.9% target share and 28.3% route run rate despite blistering efficiency with 3.24 yards per route run and a 37% target per route run rate. The Chiefs have been hesitant at every turn to increase Toney’s role, and with him less than 100%, I doubt we see that here. Does that mean Toney is off the board? No. It’s one game. If Toney can manage to play through the pain in the Super Bowl, he will. Toney also has four red zone targets over his last four full games played. Toney will run about 54% of his routes against Slay and Bradberry.
KC DST: The Chiefs’ defense has scored at least eight DK points in five of their last nine games. They have four weeks this season with double-digit DK points. Kansas City ranked 21st in drives ending in a turnover, 22nd in interceptions, and second in sacks in the regular season. They were fifth in pressure rate despite only blitzing on 24.2% of their snaps (14th). Each defense makes the most sense in builds where you project a lower-scoring affair or a rout.
PHI DST: The Eagles are sixth in total defensive DVOA and first in pass defense DVOA. They led the NFL in sacks while sitting at second in pressure rate. Philadelphia has finished with double-digit DK points in nine games. They are third in drives ending in a turnover and second in yards per play allowed. If picking between the two defenses, I’ll have more exposure to the Eagles. Pairing Sanders or Scott with the PHI DST is a route I’ll also mix into builds.
Harrison Butker: Butker has six double-digit DK point games this season. This season, the Eagles are 11th in red zone scoring (TD only). The more drives that Philly can force the Chiefs to stall near the goal line will equal more Butker points.
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All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.
