We fantasy football enthusiasts are hungry for free agency, and the Saints’ anticipated signing of Derek Carr is a tasty little bite ahead of the full meal — an amuse bouche, if you will.

Carr will reportedly sign a four-year deal with $150 million, including $100 million in guaranteed money. Carr is the first big QB domino to fall in the offseason. Aaron Rodgers could potentially land with a new team. Jimmy Garoppolo is a free agent likely to become a bridge starter for a QB-needy team. We’re likely to see four quarterbacks selected in the top 10 of this year’s NFL Draft.

But with the signing of Carr, the Saints’ QB situation is settled — at least in the near term.

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Derek Carr to Saints: Fantasy Football Impact

It’s fair to say that Carr represents an upgrade at quarterback for the Saints, but not a massive upgrade. The New Orleans passing game was inconsistent but functional last season with Andy Dalton as the starter from Week 4 on. The Saints’ passing offense ranked 22nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and was 17th in passing touchdowns (24), 16th in passing yards (3,969), 10th in team passer rating (93.6) and fifth in yards per pass attempt (7.8).

Carr was widely regarded as a solid but not championship-caliber quarterback for most of his tenure as the Raiders’ starter. He mostly looked like the same guy last season, but Carr had some statistical slippage. His completion percentage (60.8%) and passer rating (86.3) were the lowest since his rookie year. Carr’s yards per attempt (6.7) hit a five-year low. His 2.8% interception rate was the highest of his career.

Carr averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game in 2022, ranking QB19 in fantasy scoring among QBs who played at least 10 games. He’s finished in the QB1 range twice in his career (QB10 in 2016, QB12 in 2021). His best finish in fantasy points per game was QB10 (2016).

Derek Carr is the walking definition of a QB2. His new supporting cast isn’t going to substantially increase or decrease his fantasy value.

In dynasty leagues, Carr has value in 2QB and Superflex formats by virtue of being a starter, but he’s a low-level asset in 1QB leagues. Carr turns 32 later this month. He isn’t at the end of the line, but it’s fair to say that Carr, an avid golfer, has teed off on the back 9 of his career. He’s a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3 for dynasty purposes. In Superflex formats, Carr’s value is roughly equivalent to the 1.11 or 1.12 pick in rookie drafts, according to the FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart. In 1QB dynasty leagues, Carr has all the value of pocket lint.

More significant than the fantasy value of Carr himself is the effect his presence will have on other New Orleans fantasy performers — namely young WR Chris Olave and veteran RB Alvin Kamara.

Olave had an exciting rookie year in 2022, catching 72 passes for 1,042 yards and four touchdowns on 119 targets. His target share in the 15 games he played was 26.6%.

Carr’s primary target last season was his former college teammate at Fresno State, Davante Adams. Reunited with Carr after eight years in Green Bay, Adams finished second in the league in targets with 180 behind only Justin Jefferson. Adams’ target share was a whopping 32.3%. It would be unrealistic to expect Olave to finish with a target share north of 30%, but it’s reasonable to expect Olave’s already robust target share to either hold steady or increase a bit.

Carr will no doubt appreciate Olave’s precise route running, and there’s reason to believe Carr will try to capitalize on Olave’s deep speed. Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, according to Pro Football Reference, the fourth-highest in the league. That was a full yard higher than his 8.1 IAY/PA from 2020 and 2021 (which perhaps explains Carr’s lower-than-usual 2022 completion percentage). Andy Dalton averaged 7.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last season. Carr posted a 95.8 passer rating on throws of 20+ yards last season, 13th among QBs with at least 300 pass attempts. Dalton had a passer rating of 84.5 on such throws. Carr’s arrival in New Orleans should give Olave’s fantasy value at least a slight boost.

Kamara had 81 receptions in each of his first three seasons in New Orleans, then had 83 receptions in his fourth year. He’s caught 47 and 57 passes in the last two seasons. Kamara is facing battery charges for an incident in Las Vegas in February 2022, so it’s possible he’ll have to serve a league-issued suspension this year. But legal matters aside, Kamara figures to be prominently involved in the passing game with Carr quarterbacking the Saints. Raiders RBs finished top 11 in the percentage of team targets in eight of Carr’s nine seasons as their QB. Their yearly finishes in that category since Carr’s rookie year: 4th, 11th, 10th, 2nd, 8th, 8th, 9th, 4th, 17th. Kamara might not see as many targets this year as he did when Drew Brees was his QB, but the veteran RB should catch plenty of passes.

The Saints still have WR Michael Thomas under contract, but it’s impossible to gauge the 2023 value of a receiver who’s played only 10 games the last three years due to foot and soft-tissue injuries.

WR Rashid Shaheed posted intriguing rookie numbers last season, albeit on a 34-target sample size. Shaheed had 28-488-2 with averages of 17.4 yards per catch and 14.4 yards per target, with an average depth of target of 11.6. If Carr continues to throw downfield as aggressively as he did last season, Shaheed could be a fantasy-viable asset.

TE Juwan Johnson was a pleasant surprise for the Saints last season, finishing with 42-508-7 on 65 targets. Darren Waller had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons for the Raiders in 2019 and 2020, averaging 8.2 targets and 6.2 receptions a game over that span, so it’s fair to presume that Carr will bolster Johnson’s fantasy value.

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