Blindly projecting a player’s stats from the previous season to the following season is unwise. Digging under the hood is imperative for setting expectations for the 2023 fantasy baseball season. Sadly, the Statcast data for the following trio of hitters is discouraging for their 2023 outlook.

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Hitters to Target Based on Statcast Data (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL): 49.6 ADP & 52.2 ECR

Albies played in only 64 games last year because of injuries. Still, his injuries don’t explain his nosedive in production from a monstrous 2021 fantasy baseball campaign. Albies had eight homers, three stolen bases and a career-low .247 batting average in 269 plate appearances in 2022.

Was he unlucky? Not exactly. According to FanGraphs, he had a .239 xBA and .387 xSLG, lower than his .247 batting average and .387 slugging. Additionally, Albies had his lowest barrel rate (5.4 Barrel%) since 2018 and the lowest hard-hit rate (26.5 HardHit%) of his career.

Albies was also inefficient on the bases, stealing only three in eight attempts. Per Baseball Savant, Albies’ 27.5 ft/sec sprint speed was only a pinch above average and the worst mark in his career. The young second baseman is only a year removed from a 30/20 season with 103 runs, 106 RBI and a .259 batting average. So, the allure of selecting him is understandable. Unfortunately, his most recent season looked more like his underwhelming 2020 campaign. As a result, selecting him in the first five rounds of a 12-team mixed league is too rich.

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU): 62.8 ADP & 65.5 ECR

Bregman’s mastery of the strike zone and elite ability to avoid strikeouts are undeniable. But, unfortunately, those skills only elevate his floor as his batted-ball data is mediocre or worse.

According to FanGraphs, Bregman was 77th out of 130 qualified hitters in 2022 in barrel rate (7.3 Barrel%) and tied for 75th in exit velocity (88.9 mph). The veteran third baseman’s middling power produced a .416 xSLG, far lower than his .454 slugging.

As a result, Bregman’s 23 homers in 656 plate appearances might have been a little flukey. Bregman had only 12 homers in 400 plate appearances in 2021, with only a slightly lower exit velocity and barrel rate. He did lift his launch angle from 15.9 degrees in 2021 to 19.5 degrees last year. Nonetheless, last year’s homer output is probably closer to his high-end output than his floor.

Bregman isn’t a threat to steal bases, either. He’s stolen only two since 2020. Bregman’s largely reliant on runs and RBI to generate value. He was the 45th-ranked hitter last year when he exceeded his expected stats and is drafted 39th among hitters this year. It doesn’t make sense. Bregman is overrated in drafts.

Xander Bogaerts (SS – BOS): 76.2 ADP & 73.4 ECR

Bogaerts’ surface stats were fantasy-friendly last year. He hit 15 homers, stole eight bases and raked to the tune of a .307 batting average. However, he needed a .362 BABIP, markedly higher than his .334 BABIP in 1,526 plate appearances from 2019 through 2021, to inflate his batting average.

Predictably, Bogaerts’ expected batting average was much higher than his actual batting average. In fact, Bogaerts’ batting average was 48 points higher than his .259 xBA, the sixth-highest positive difference among hitters with at least 100 balls in play. The veteran shortstop’s .456 slugging also trounced his .383 xSLG. It gets worse. Bogaerts’ 88.1 mph exit velocity and 6.5 Barrel% were his lowest marks since 2017.

He was likely to regress this year without a change of scenery. Unfortunately, Bogaerts is downgrading home venues after signing a lucrative deal with the Padres. According to our park factors, Fenway Park has the third-highest park factor for runs (1.210), and PETCO Park has the lowest mark (0.856). Additionally, while Fenway Park increases homers (1.095), singles (1.116), doubles (1.298) and triples (1.643), PETCO park decreases homers (0.986), singles (0.916), doubles (0.849) and triples (0.508). Bogaerts’ Statcast data, coupled with his park-factor downgrade, make him more of a fringe top-100 player than a top-80 option.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.