Earlier than ever there are a plethora of Best Ball tournaments available for drafters to jump into and the latest offering from Underdog is a Superflex tournament, which is similar to the FFPC Superflex tournament also running right now. With both of these tournaments, the quarterback position is more important to get right than ever before and each pick matters greatly. This list will tell you which players you shouldn’t be wasting picks on unless they fall past their ADP.
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
- Introduction to Best Ball Leagues
- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): ADP 48.2
The lure of Kyler Murray is obvious, if he can return from his ACL and meniscus injury ahead of schedule then he has the potential to be a top-five quarterback at a fraction of the cost. The downside of this pick is that you potentially waste a pick on a player who might not play at all in 2023. Murray’s injury occurred in the middle of December, meaning the usual nine-month recovery would take Murray to right around the start of the season, but that’s only if everything goes to plan, which often isn’t the case. To add to this, Murray will be learning a new offense for the first time in his NFL career during what will surely be a Cardinals’ rebuild as they overhaul a roster with many holes and likely lose DeAndre Hopkins in the process. If Murray returns will he be able to trust his knee to extend plays and pick up the rushing production that makes him so valuable? We’ve seen him return from injuries before and be suboptimal for fantasy purposes and right now, that kind of headache seems like one we can do without, particularly when Murray is being drafted around studs such as Rhamondre Stevenson, Mark Andrews, and DK Metcalf.
George Kittle (TE – SF): ADP 65.5
Fading George Kittle is one of the most straightforward and simple decisions of this offseason despite him reaching a career-high in touchdowns with eleven in 2022. Kittle had the second-highest touchdown rate of any tight end who saw over 50 targets, but in the eight games with no touchdowns, he averaged a woefully disappointing 4.9 Half PPR points, which is not helping anyone in best ball. Kittle dominated against opponents who struggled to defend against tight ends, dominating the Seahawks and Cardinals in particular, with six touchdowns against them across three games. Kittle has had 2-5-5-6-2 and then 11 touchdowns so far in his career. 2022 was an outlier and 2023 looks set to start with the now routine questions around the Niners’ quarterback situation. Kittle has never gotten on the same page with Trey Lance in limited opportunities and Sam Darnold has a history of not relying on tight ends, which puts all of Kittle’s eggs into a Brock Purdy-shaped basket, which right now doesn’t look too safe. If the Niners move on from Brandon Aiyuk perhaps it would be easier to believe in Kittle, but right now with Kyle Pitts and Dallas Goedert available later on, it’s tough to pull the trigger on Kittle.
Jordan Love (QB – GB): ADP 55.5
The Packers turned to only their third quarterback in the last 31 years with the anointing of Jordan Love as the starter. Love was drafted with the 26th pick of the 2020 draft and has since had 91 career dropbacks, which is 33 fewer than the oft-referred to as inexperienced Trey Lance. On those 91 career dropbacks, Love has thrown for 606 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, completing 60.2% of his passes. The Packers must know more than we do about Love at this stage, and the simple truth is we know virtually nothing. His 80 pass attempts in three years are too small of a sample size to try and extrapolate with any true meaning, and with Love currently being drafted ahead of CJ Stroud and Matthew Stafford, his price is too steep right now. It is unlikely that Love’s ADP jumps too high unless the Packers acquire an elite pass-catcher, so instead, we can sit and wait for camp reports to decide if we’d like to cram in some exposure to him later on in the drafting season.
Mike Evans (WR – TB): ADP 94.4
Some wide receivers can be quarterback-proof and find ways to produce despite the circumstances around them, it feels more likely that Chris Godwin will be able to do that in 2023 than Mike Evans will. The Buccanneers look set for a true camp battle between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, a second-round pick who wasn’t given starts whenever Tom Brady sat in the last two years. It seems safe to assume we might see both quarterbacks at times this season and unless Kyle Trask has built up a very strong rapport with Mike Evans in practice, this feels disastrous for a player who counts on high-difficulty downfield passes that helped him rack up yardage and touchdowns. When Mayfield played in Cleveland he was far better at targeting Jarvis Landry in the slot than he was targeting Odell Beckham Jr. and it feels very easy to draw parallels in Tampa when trying to project which receivers may sustain success.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI): ADP 61.7
The Bears’ acquisition of a truly talented wide receiver in DJ Moore might mean more for their actual NFL production than fantasy results. DJ Moore is a good receiver but doesn’t earn targets in the same way a player like DeAndre Hopkins can. Additionally, Moore has never been reliable as a touchdown scorer, managing 21 in his last five seasons combined, which puts him firmly outside the top thirty touchdown scorers at the position. The Bears passed the ball at an unfathomable level in 2022, and some positive regression is coming, but it’s tricky projecting too huge of a leap. Justin Fields completed 12.8 passes per game, which was by far the fewest of any starter and if we were to increase that number up to 17 per game, close to Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill, it would represent an increase of 32%. That would be a big increase for a quarterback who was 56th in passing EPA among 57 quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks. The Bears should take a step forward, but expecting Moore to have a true breakout season might be a step too far.
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