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Early Fantasy Football Sleepers Picks & Predictions (2023)

Early Fantasy Football Sleepers Picks & Predictions (2023)

It is never too soon to start preparing for season-long fantasy football drafts. While a lot can change between now and August, some players won’t be on anyone’s radar unless you’re plugged in all offseason.

Therefore, identifying sleeper candidates – players outside the top 100 in the FantasyPros PPR Expert Consensus Draft Rankings – is critical to getting ahead and staying ahead come draft time.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Way-Too-Early Redraft Sleepers

Samaje Perine (RB – DEN): ECR 127 | RB48

The Denver Broncos RB room is an interesting case, especially given the unknowns surrounding Javonte Williams‘ return from a devastating knee injury in 2022. Denver signed free agent RB Samaje Perine this offseason in an apparent attempt to provide depth at the position. Still, he could factor heavily into the offense pending the return of Williams.

In 2022, behind RB Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, Perine thrived as a change-of-pace back, especially in the passing attack. He averaged 4.15 yards per carry (YPC) and caught 38 of 51 targets for 287 yards and four touchdowns. He finished as the overall Point Per Reception (PPR) RB34, which is impressive for someone behind a star back like Mixon.

There is a good chance Perine will get the starting nod for the Broncos until Williams returns to the field. With his mix of rushing acumen and pass-catching abilities in head coach Sean Payton’s offense, he is almost a lock to outperform his RB48 projection in 2023. If his ECR holds through August, Perine is a potential league-winning steal in redraft formats.

Joshua Kelley (RB – LAC): ECR 176 | RB57

In 2022, Chargers RB Joshua Kelley established himself as a solid second rushing option in San Diego behind elite RB Austin Ekeler. He averaged 5.3 carries per game and 4.2 YPC behind Ekeler and saw consistent usage in the passing attack behind the best receiving back in the league.

Frustrated by the franchise’s unwillingness to ink him to a long-term contract extension, Ekeler has been permitted to seek a trade. While the market has been quiet thus far, he could be an NFL Draft day trade candidate, and Kelley could be a significant beneficiary of his moving on to a new team. In addition, new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has publicly stated his desire to get him more involved in the offense in 2023, regardless of Ekeler’s status.

Moore’s offense in Dallas allowed Ezekiel Elliot (PPR RB22) and Tony Pollard (PPR RB8) to thrive last season. While it would be over-the-top to say we could see similar results for an Ekeler/Kelley tandem, Kelley could finish 2023 well ahead of his RB57 ranking. Additionally, if the team can find a trade partner for Ekeler and they don’t draft a running back, Kelley could see himself with an opportunity to sneak into the RB2/3 range this upcoming season.

Alec Pierce (WR – IND): ECR 160 |WR65

The Indianapolis Colts are a team in transition heading into the 2023 season. Their starting QB is likely missing from the roster, WR Parris Campbell has moved on to New York and no one really knows how healthy RB Jonathan Taylor will be entering the season. The team will roll into next season with second-year pass-catcher Alec Pierce as the WR2 behind Michael Pittman.

Pierce saw consistent volume in his rookie season, drawing five or more targets in eight games. Unfortunately, just as he was starting to heat up, the team pivoted from veteran QB Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger behind center, and the entire team was a mess for the rest of the 2022 season. Pierce finished the season as the PPR WR63, catching 41 of his 78 targets for 593 yards and two touchdowns. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but it could have been much worse considering the situation.

Heading into the 2023 season, Pierce is bound to see an increase in volume, regardless of who is under center. New head coach Shane Steichen brings an offensive mindset to a team that struggled to produce in 2022. Steichen’s WR2 as the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, DeVonta Smith, saw 136 targets last season and finished as the PPR WR9. While Pierce isn’t going to crack into the WR1 tier, he could end up as a WR3 on volume alone, with an opportunity to sneak into WR2 territory if he can find the endzone a handful of times. That’s excellent value for a WR going in the 13th round or later of your fantasy drafts.

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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.

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