The top five in Fantasy Football is a hard tier to crack for quarterbacks. Several young quarterbacks seem to have a stranglehold on the position that they do not plan on relinquishing anytime soon. Patrick Mahomes has been in the top-five four of the last five seasons. Josh Allen has also been a top-five QB for three straight seasons, and he was sixth back in 2019. Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow were both top-five QBs for the first time last year, but Burrow was eighth, and Hurts was ninth in 2022. All four of these quarterbacks are under 30 years old, and all four of them are expected to do big things in fantasy in 2023.

Geno Smith was the big surprise in the top-five last year. Despite being 32 years old and never being an elite fantasy quarterback, he finished the season with 4,282 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. Given that he has never played at that level previously, he would be the player among this group of five quarterbacks that most fantasy managers would not expect to be in the top five again in 2023.

That means that there is not a lot of hope for the rest of the quarterbacks in the league to hit that top-five tier. Still, some pretty big names finished as QB2 last year who could make a run for a top-five ranking in 2023 if Smith cannot duplicate his 2022 season or the other four names disappoint due to poor play or injury. Here is my list of QB2s from 2022 who have top-five potential in 2023. Current rankings based on 2023 Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

• Dynasty Trade Value Chart
• Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
• Derek Brown’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers
• Dynasty Rookie Draft Pick Trade Strategy & Advice
• Latest Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft

Quarterbacks With Top-5 Potential (2023 Fantasy Football)

Lamar Jackson (BAL): QB6

Lamar Jackson had a dominant fantasy football season in 2019, tallying 421.7 fantasy points in a season that saw him win the MVP award in only his second year in the league. He has never been able to come close to duplicating that fantasy ranking. He played 15 games in 2020, but his production dipped to 341.8 fantasy points in 2020. In the last two years, he has tallied only 253.0 and 243.1 fantasy points. That was due to missing five games each of those seasons with injury. He is now in a contract standoff with the Ravens that may result in a lengthy holdout or him going to another team. It could also be resolved before training camp, and he could be their starter in Week 1.

Jackson is an elite dual-threat quarterback. He has twice eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing in a season, and he has 24 rushing touchdowns in his career. He also had 36 passing touchdowns in 2019. The reason he is not being ranked as a top-five fantasy quarterback is that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding his contract and his durability. However, there is no denying his talent. When he is healthy and available, he is an elite fantasy option. Jackson was the fifth-ranked fantasy quarterback with 241.8 fantasy points in the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season. Even with him missing five games, he was the 13th-ranked fantasy quarterback.

If Jackson plays with the Ravens in 2023, he will have Odell Beckham Jr. joining an offense that will have a new coordinator, Todd Monken. Monken is expected to put the air back in the Ravens’ offense, which would help Jackson’s fantasy value. Jackson could easily return to the top of the fantasy rankings in 2023 if he stays in Baltimore. Even if he moves, his ability to make plays both on the ground and through the air makes him one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson Fantasy Seasons 2019-2022

Aaron Rodgers (GB): QB16

Nobody expects Rodgers to remain with Green Bay. The smart money is on him becoming a member of the New York Jets. Assuming he makes it to the Jets in 2023, there is a lot of skill position talent on their roster. Garrett Wilson was the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, playing with Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White. Allan Lazard comes over from the Packers to give Rodgers a familiar weapon. Mecole Hardman gives them some speed, and the Jets could add another weapon with the 13th pick in the NFL Draft, assuming they do not have to give up that pick to acquire Rodgers from Green Bay.

Rodgers was a top-five option as recently as 2020, and he was the sixth-ranked fantasy QB in 2021. Despite losing Davante Adams and having a very young and inexperienced receiver room, he still had 3,695 passing yards and 26 passing touchdowns, playing with an injured thumb for a large part of the season. Assuming he lands in New York, he will have Nathaniel Hackett as his offensive coordinator, which was an MVP combination in 2020 and 2021 in Green Bay. Therefore, it is not that far-fetched that Rodgers could return to being a top-five fantasy QB, given that he is just a year removed from back-to-back MVP awards.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): QB12

Tagovailoa was the 12th-ranked fantasy QB based on points per game, with 18.4 fantasy points per game. Had he not missed four games with an injury and been knocked out of two other games with injuries, he could have been one of the biggest fantasy stars in the NFL. Instead, he had only 400 pass attempts but tallied 3,548 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns and just eight interceptions. The offense was explosive, with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running routes. Those two are among the fastest players in the NFL, and they are both a big play or long touchdown waiting to happen.

Tagovailoa has a ton of injury risk. He is only 6-foot-1 and 217 pounds, and he suffered two concussions last year, the second one shutting him down for the last two games of the regular season and the Wild Card Round. I think one mistake fantasy managers make is they sour on players too quickly due to injury concerns. Any player can have injuries. It is possible to write anyone in the league if the rationale is that he is likely to be injured.

Still, the concussions are a concern. There is no arguing that a player with a concussion history is more susceptible to future concussions than a player with no concussion history. There is also no arguing that when he is healthy with these wide receivers, he can put up monster passing numbers and be an elite fantasy option. The potential is there for Tagovailoa to have a monster fantasy season in 2023 if he can stay healthy.

Russell Wilson (DEN): QB17

Wilson was really bad last year. The Broncos were the 23rd-ranked scoring offense and 19th-ranked yardage offense in 2021. Wilson was brought in to improve the offense. Instead, they plummeted to 32nd in points scored and 21st in yards gained. They had 11 games where they scored less than 17 points, and Wilson had only 3,524 passing yards, 16 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 236 fantasy points ranked 16th among fantasy quarterbacks. It was easily his worst season as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

I think it is a little early to jump ship on Wilson entirely. Wilson made nine Pro Bowls in 10 seasons in Seattle and finished as a top three option four times, with one of those performances coming as recently as 2019. He will no longer be coached by Nathaniel Hackett, who was a disaster as a head coach. Sean Payton is now in charge, and Payton has presided over offenses that finished in the top five in passing yards gained 11 times when he was the head coach in New Orleans. Wilson will have to reflect on his shortcomings in 2022 because he shares some of the blame with what went wrong in Denver last year. If he buys into Payton’s system, he could be in for a rebound season and a top-five fantasy finish in 2023.

Dak Prescott (DAL): QB9

Prescott has not been a top-five fantasy quarterback since finishing second in 2019, which was the year before Mike McCarthy arrived in Dallas. He was close, though, in 2021 when he finished seventh among fantasy quarterbacks. Last year he had his fantasy season derailed early, missing five games early in the season with a thumb injury. He averaged a healthy 17.8 fantasy points per game on a team that ranked sixth in rushing attempts (531) and 11th in pass-to-run ratio (51.1% to 48.9%).

The Cowboys have some issues on offense they need to address. Dalton Schultz was lost in free agency to the Houston Texans, and Ezekiel Elliott was released. However, they did add Brandin Cooks to team up with CeeDee Lamb at wide receiver, and Tony Pollard’s emergence in 2022 allowed them to move on from Elliott.

They also have an offensive coordinator change; Kellen Moore was replaced with Brian Schottenheimer. Mike McCarthy will be calling the plays in Dallas this year, and he had a lot of success earlier in his career calling plays for Rodgers in Green Bay. If Prescott can stay healthy and the Cowboys can retool the offense, Prescott has the arm talent to be a top-five fantasy option.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.