The draft is fast approaching, and with so many interesting running backs in this year’s class, there will undoubtedly be some depth charts that are thrown into turmoil for fantasy football purposes, along with some that have already become conundrums after free agency. The players on this list are running backs to avoid for fantasy football in 2023 unless, of course, you’re getting them at a sizable discount.
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Running Backs To Avoid
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
Regardless of how electric D’Andre Swift has looked at times in his career, we can be pretty confident in saying that the Lions don’t feel head over heels in love with him. Two years ago they brought in Jamaal Williams and gave him huge amounts of high-value touches in 2022, as he scored 17 touchdowns, then with Williams departing, the Lions sought to upgrade their running back room, paying David Montgomery more money than Williams got on the open market. Montgomery is a better pass-catcher than Jamaal Williams, so it’s likely that Montgomery eats into Swift’s target share slightly, which Swift already can’t afford. Montgomery averaged 9.3 yards per catch in 2022, compared to Swift’s 8.0, and Montgomery also had Swift beat in receiving EPA. Over the three years Swift has been in the NFL, his rush attempts per game have been 8.5, 12.0, and 7.2; he simply has to be efficient with the touches he gets, but that isn’t always the case. In 2022 Swift ranked 37th in fantasy points over expected per game, whereas Montgomery was 23rd. As things currently stand, there is very little in the way of an upside case for D’Andre Swift.
I can't stop trading away D'Andre Swift for JK Dobbins
— Thomas Christopher (@ThomasCP_NFL) April 8, 2023
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
In 2022 it became completely clear that the Kansas City Chiefs no longer believe in former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who saw his snaps decline for seven straight weeks before his season ended with a knee injury. Down the stretch, the Chiefs turned the ball over to Isiah Pacheco, who was the 251st pick in the 2022 draft, with Pacheco out-touching and out-producing Jerick McKinnon, with 77 touches to McKinnon’s 43. The Chiefs have few holes on their roster, as one might expect for a team fresh off a Super Bowl win, and with Jerick McKinnon a soon to be 31-year old free agent, the Chiefs will no doubt look to bolster a position group that they want to rely upon in a draft class of rookie running backs that has more depth than the last few years. The Chiefs have also lost star left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who occasionally struggled in pass protection, but was an excellent run blocker. The warning lights might not be flashing at their strongest right now, but after the draft, the picture could be very different.
Isiah Pacheco is older than Cam Akers.
— Wyatt 🥃 (@WyattB_FF) April 15, 2023
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
The red flags are clear and obvious for Javonte Williams, but they remain worth reiterating. Williams tore his ACL and LCL in October, and reports suggest he could miss the entirety of the 2023 season. For anyone who had hoped to count on JK Dobbins in 2022 as he tried to recover from a similarly serious knee injury, this all brings back painful memories. Running backs often take time to get up to speed when they do return from ACL injuries, with the mental side of recovery as difficult as the physical. With the team unsure of Williams’s recovery time and going through drastic changes with Nathaniel Hackett and John Elway departing as Sean Payton stepped in, it is no wonder that they sought to bring in Samaje Perine as a priority free agent. Perine reportedly had the exact same monetary offer to stay with the Bengals but chose the Broncos because of the sales pitch Sean Payton delivered, including telling him that he always wants to utilize two running backs in an offense. Even if Williams does return for a healthy 2023 season, will we see anything but a committee?
Javonte Williams is priced RB18 in redraft, but RB8 in dynasty.
Rhamondre Stevenson is priced RB12 in redraft, but RB13 in dynasty.
Top-12 last year, not coming off an ACL year, projected to score more in 2023, & cheaper.
Take advantage of this.
SELL Javonte for Rhamondre+
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) February 11, 2023
A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
A year ago, there were many who thought that AJ Dillon was on the cusp of wrestling away the RB1 duties from Aaron Jones in Green Bay, but sadly for Dillon, at least, things didn’t play out that way. Between weeks two and eleven, Dillon averaged 6.1 PPR points per game and didn’t have a single double-digit performance which made him entirely useless for fantasy football unless you were convinced of his handcuff value. Dillon’s yards per carry, missed tackles forced percentage, rushing EPA, and fantasy points per touch all hit career lows as it became clear Aaron Jones was still the lead back. The Packers regressed heavily in 2022 from their contender-worthy status of 2021, but now in a new era that most likely is missing Aaron Rodgers, there is nothing to say the Packers won’t regress even further under Jordan Love.
The Packers drafted AJ Dillon in RD2 a year before Jamaal Williams rookie contract was up.
Dillon’s contract is up after this season, and it seems unlikely they’ll extend him. So, keep that in the back of your mind.
— Jacob (@NotionsOfJacob) April 17, 2023
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
The decline hits hard and fast at the running back position, and 2022 showed us exactly how harsh things could become for Alvin Kamara. During the course of Kamara’s career, he’s scored 49 rushing touchdowns, but only six of those have come in the last two years, and a dreadful two touchdowns were all Kamara had to show for his efforts in 2022. When the Saints got inside the 10-yard line, it was time for Taysom Hill to be subbed in and vulture the touchdowns, which makes sense given his build and ridiculous salary; the Saints have to use him for something. This offseason, the Saints further solidified the fact that they don’t see Kamara as a goal-line back by bringing in goal-line specialist Jamaal Williams, fresh off a 17-touchdown season, to take away more of the work from Kamara. All of this would be bad enough if it weren’t for the fact that Kamara also has a suspension coming his way at some point that could keep him off the field for up to six games. The only time it’s worth rostering Kamara is when you can get him at a discount to his already low cost.
Old news but Alvin Kamara also has a court date set for July 31 from the 2022 incident in Las Vegas . Both players also have pending civil suits against them. Neither has been disciplined by the NFL with court dates still pending.
— Katherine Terrell (@Kat_Terrell) April 11, 2023
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