Year after year the tight end position is volatile and untrustworthy, with the gulf between the elite and the field widening and widening. Many tight ends are touchdown reliant and some are just flat-out bad for fantasy purposes but talked up because of a lack of competition on their rosters. This article will lay out some of the tight ends you should be staying away from in 2023, or looking to trade off of, in dynasty leagues.
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Tight Ends to Avoid
Which tight ends should fantasy players steer clear of?
George Kittle (TE – SF)
It might seem strange to start this list with a tight end who scored eleven touchdowns in 2022, which was the second-most, only trailing year in, year out stud, Travis Kelce, but there are plenty of red flags for George Kittle’s 2023 outlook. The Niners are embarking on yet another year of quarterback issues with the best-case scenario seemingly that Brock Purdy might be ready by the early stages of the season, but it seems fair to wonder if he can be as effective in 2023 as he was in the playoffs, or will he experience a return to Earth in the way Nick Foles did after the Eagles’ Super Bowl win in 2018? If Purdy is unable to start the season then Kittle’s fortunes lie with Sam Darnold or Trey Lance, both of whom have question marks hanging over their own heads. Combine the quarterback issues with how Kittle scored his points in 2022 and the picture gets a little more detailed. Of the eleven touchdowns Kittle scored, six came against the Cardinals and Seahawks, who were both bottom-five defenses against the position and routinely allowed tight ends to perform above their normal numbers when facing them. When Kittle didn’t score touchdowns he averaged 4.9 Half-PPR points per game, which could likely cost you a matchup. If the Niners decide to move on from Brandon Aiyuk, it might open up more targets for Kittle, but for now, he’s an easy fade.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI)
In 2022 Cole Kmet was the epitome of the tight end position, managing eight finishes outside the top twenty at the position and scoring less than 10 PPR points in 75% of his appearances, but Kmet did have a two-week spell where he scored 45.4 PPR points. The problem with those points is that you likely had Kmet on the bench for at least one of those games after he had scored 16.8 PPR points in the previous three weeks combined. Kmet’s 19.3% target share was the seventh-highest among all tight ends, but his yards per route run of 1.2 was 43rd among tight ends with 10 or more receptions. Simply put, Kmet was unable to turn targets into production despite working against very little pass-catching competition in Chicago and now with the arrivals of DJ Moore and Robert Tonyan, there is no reason to believe Kmet can take a leap forward, even if the Bears do increase their pass completions per game from the woefully low number of 12.8 which Justin Fields managed in 2022.
Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN)
The number of believers in Irv Smith Jr. might have dwindled, but those left behind are still as passionate and committed as ever, despite Smith Jr. having shown next to nothing in the NFL. Smith Jr. has never been able to earn consistent targets, ranking 58th in targets per route run in 2019 and 59th in 2020. The moment TJ Hockenson arrived in Minnesota, he was able to earn targets and be productive in a way that Smith Jr. never was. The Bengals have been a reasonable stop for tight end journeymen over the last couple of years with both CJ Uzomah and Hayden Hurst spending a year there before moving on to reasonable contracts elsewhere. The trouble is for fantasy purposes that the Bengals aren’t a tight end-driven offense, thanks to their elite wide receivers and above-average production from running backs. In 2022 Joe Burrow targeted tight ends 94 times, which was the ninth-lowest amount of any offense in the league. Hayden Hurst averaged 7.1 PPR points in games without a touchdown and had only two touchdowns all season. Two-thirds of Hurst’s games resulted in single-digit fantasy returns and it requires quite the leap to imagine Irv Smith Jr. doing any better than this.
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR)
The Rams head into 2023 in the midst of a soft rebuild, trying to retain a level of competitiveness while also being realistic about the overhaul their roster needs. Tyler Higbee’s cap number is $9M for 2023 and the Rams could save $7M by moving on from him if they wait until after June 1st. Higbee’s 5.8 yards per target ranked 56th among 69 tight ends with 10 or more receptions, as he was rarely able to turn targets into big plays. If you need a depth piece for a dynasty roster or a third tight end for a best ball team, then Higbee isn’t atrocious, but we can be realistic about what he brings to fantasy football, even if the Rams’ quarterback play should be better under a healthy Matthew Stafford in 2023.
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