Tonight’s Underdog Fantasy pick ’em selections begin with a burgeoning superstar in a tasty matchup. A young righty with strikeout potential is the second pick. The final three choices are correlated in the Pacific Northwest. A struggling lefty could get knocked around, putting his strikeout prop in peril. And two of his opponents have the potential to erupt against him.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Wander Franco: 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Franco’s well-rounded offensive profile is perfect for scoring fantasy points. He does an elite job of putting the ball in play, hitting it hard and swiping bases when he’s on the basepaths. According to FanGraphs, he has four homers, three stolen bases, a .368 OBP, .358 ISO and 191 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances this year.
His batted-ball data validate the power outburst. Franco has an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph, a 19.8-degree launch angle and a .385 xwOBA. Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is still mired in a funk after a horrendous 2022 campaign. Since last year, hitters have crushed Berrios for a 5.55 ERA, and he’s yielded a .375 wOBA to left-handed batters. So, Franco should eat tonight.
Tanner Houck: 5.0 Strikeouts – Higher
Houck isn’t a flawless pitcher. Additionally, Fenway Park is a treacherous park for pitchers. The right-handed hurler is good at striking out batters, though. The 26-year-old righty has had a 28.0 K% and 10.20 K/9 in 102.1 innings as a starter in his career. In two starts totaling 10.0 innings this year, he’s punched out nine hitters. And Houck’s 11.8 SwStr% and 34.7 CSW% this year are excellent.
The Angels have some top-shelf talent, namely Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Still, they have had high strikeout rates against righties since 2021. Additionally, the Angels will likely start six right-handed batters, and Houck has had a 31.2 K% against righties in his career. As a result, over 5.0 strikeouts for Houck is an enticing pick.
Austin Gomber: 4.5 Strikeouts – Lower
It would be understandable to have a preconceived notion about Gomber’s ugly numbers since 2021 as a member of the Rockies being a product of pitching his home games at Coors Field. But, instead, Gomber’s been a mess on the road. In 126.2 innings on the road since joining the Rockies in 2021, he’s had a 6.04 ERA.
Gomber’s 23.2 K% in that sample might provide pause for taking the under for 4.5 strikeouts. However, he’s gone under 4.5 strikeouts eight times in his last 13 road starts. Further, Seattle’s lineup kills lefties and can chase him quickly tonight. Seven of their projected starters have had at least a 117 wRC+ since 2021 (or 2022 for players who debuted last year) against lefties. So, add Gomber’s under for 4.5 strikeouts to your Underdog Fantasy pick ’em portfolio tonight.
Julio Rodriguez: 9.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Rodriguez gets the first crack at the aforementioned Gomber. The do-it-all stud has slotted atop the lineup for the Mariners. The right-handed-hitting outfielder has thrived with the platoon advantage. In 146 plate appearances against lefties, he’s had a .356 OBP, .202 ISO and 141 wRC+.
J-Rod can also score fantasy points with his legs. He stole 25 bases as a rookie last year and has swiped four already this season. Additionally, the matchup is great. Right-handed batters have teed off for a .345 OBP, .539 slugging and .376 wOBA against Gomber since last year. So, the M’s should hang a crooked number on the scoreboard, and Rodriguez should get in on the fun out of the chute.
Teoscar Hernandez: Over 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Hernandez is one of the game’s premier lefty-killers. Since 2021, he’s smashed them for a .716 slugging, .380 ISO and 194 wRC+. Hernandez has muscled up for 21 doubles and 22 homers in 246 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
Additionally, the free-swinging slugging outfielder has had a .336 batting average and only 5.7 BB% during that stretch. Therefore, Hernandez isn’t likely to work walks and has a few paths to exceed 1.5 total bases. Hernandez’s high batting average could allow him to have more than 1.5 total bases on a couple of singles. Yet, the apparent route is ripping an extra-base hit. So, Hernandez’s over for 1.5 total bases is one of the best picks on Underdog Fantasy tonight.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
