It’s a busy night in Major League Baseball, providing Underdog Fantasy gamers with tons of pick ’em options. Tonight’s picks have a slight pitcher leaning, with three strikeout props included. However, two hitters also have eye-catching props.
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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Martin Perez: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Perez has basically been a five-and-dive pitcher for the Rangers this year. He’s pitched 5.2, 5.0, 5.0 and 5.2 innings in four starts, striking out seven, five, four and three batters in those turns. Perez’s inability to pitch deep into games this year means he has to strike out roughly a batter per inning tonight to hit his prop.
At a glance, that might not seem daunting. According to FanGraphs, the Reds have a 25.9 K% against lefties this season. However, many of their most strikeout-prone players are buried in the lineup. For instance, Jose Barrero (33.3 K% against lefties since 2021) and Curt Casali (29.9 K% versus southpaws since 2021) are projected to hit eighth and ninth.
Meanwhile, the Reds have four projected starters who’ve struck out in fewer than 19.0% of their plate appearances against lefties since 2021. Those four batters are projected to hit first, fourth, sixth and seventh, respectively. Finally, Great American Ball Park is a hitter-friendly ballpark and could result in an early hook for Perez if he’s not sharp.
Jose Berrios: 5.0 Strikeouts – Higher
I’m infatuated with Berrios’s strikeout prop tonight. So much so that this is the second time I’m writing about it today. In fact, gamers are getting a more desirable number at Underdog Fantasy than at the sportsbooks. I wrote about Berrios’s strikeout prop at 5.5 strikeouts for Props. Readers should check out that piece for a complete analysis of why I love his over.
In short, Berrios’s 30.6 CSW% is the 18th-highest mark among pitchers who’ve pitched at least 20 innings this year. Furthermore, Chicago’s projected starters include seven players with at least a 20.2 K% against righties since 2021 or since debuting in the majors. So, Berrios should be capable of punching out more than five batters tonight.
Brett Baty: 0.5 Hits – Higher
Josiah Gray is hittable and inept against left-handed batters. Gray has allowed a .277 average this year. And since last year, he’s coughed up a .257 batting average to left-handed batters.
Sadly, Baty hasn’t had a seamless transition to the majors. Yet, it’s only a 64-plate appearance sample. Nevertheless, the youngster’s numbers in the upper minors were brilliant. In 462 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A since last year, he’s had a .322 batting average.
Finally, Baty’s .279 xBA is markedly better than his .238 batting average in 22 plate appearances for the Mets this year. So, his .238 batting average undersells his quality of contact. Baty should make the most of the platoon advantage against Gray tonight.
Eric Lauer: 6.0 Strikeouts – Lower
The Tigers are undoubtedly a soft matchup for southpaws. Detroit is dead last in wRC+ (58) against lefties this year. They’ve also struck out at an eye-popping 29.7% clip against them. Many of their projected starters also have a high strikeout rate against lefties over a larger sample.
Nevertheless, Lauer probably isn’t the pitcher to exploit Detroit’s swing-and-miss issue. According to FanGraphs, Lauer’s average fastball velocity cratered from 93.4 mph in 2022 to 90.4 mph this year. Predictably, Lauer’s swinging-strike rate has followed suit, dipping from a 9.8 SwStr% in 2022 to a 7.8 SwStr% this season.
The veteran lefty struck out six batters in his first start this year. However, he’s struck out just four, five and four in three subsequent starts. Additionally, Lauer’s average fastball velocity was under 90.0 mph in his most recent start at a season-low 89.6 mph.
And while velocity isn’t everything, Lauer also lacks a quality putaway pitch. Instead, he throws four pitches with a 7.5 SwStr% or lower, and his cutter (11.8 SwStr%) is his best swing-and-miss pitch. As a result, I expect Lauer to strike out fewer than 6.0 batters for his fourth consecutive start.
Joc Pederson: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Pederson has thrived for the Giants and enjoyed the platoon advantage at home while on the club. In 195 plate appearances at Oracle Park against righties since last year, Pederson’s had a .379 OBP, .256 ISO and 160 wRC+.
In addition, the left-handed slugger’s Statcast data is jaw-dropping this year. First, per Baseball Savant, Pederson’s 100.6 mph average FB/LD exit velocity is tied for the 12th-highest mark. Second, Pederson’s 20.8 Barrel% and 95.1-mph average exit velocity this year are 14th and 13th among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances this year.
Conversely, Jake Woodford has struggled with lefties and coughs up hard contact. Since last year, he’s allowed a .381 OBP, .463 SLG and .370 wOBA to lefties. And among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this season, Woodford’s allowed the fourth-highest hard-hit rate (60.3 HardHit%). Thus, this is a mouthwatering matchup for Pederson and a golden opportunity to score fantasy points.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
