Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: Michael Pittman Jr. (2023 Fantasy Football)

Let’s look at what to expect from Michael Pittman Jr. as you prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season.

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Dynasty Fantasy Football Advice: Michael Pittman Jr. (2023)

Here is our dynasty fantasy football outlook for Michael Pittman Jr.

2022 Production

Team	Player	REC	TGT	YDS	Y/R	LG	TD	G	FPTS	Rank	FPTS/G
Indianapolis Colts	Michael Pittman Jr.	99	141	925	9.3	28	4	16	167.0	23rd	10.4, 29th

Career Contextualization

The Indianapolis Colts drafted Michael Pittman Jr. in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft out of USC, but a severe calf injury almost derailed his rookie season. However, it wasn’t enough to stop him from showcasing his big-play ability in Year 1.

He caught seven balls for 101 yards in Week 10 of the 2020 season and commanded a season-high nine targets in the Colts’ lone playoff game, hauling in five for 90 yards. Pittman was a fiend with the ball in his hands, ranking third best among wide receivers in yards after the catch per reception (7.4).

Pittman’s path to alpha status was set, with a clean bill of health and little competition around him for targets in the Colts offense entering Year 2.

He got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks – third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja’Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league’s eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.

He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches – fourth most in the NFL. Additionally, his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy’s WR1 chair heading into 2022.

The only reason he didn’t finish higher than WR15 in half-point scoring was that the Colts ranked 29th in pass-play rate and 27th in pass attempts.

Heading into his third season, expectations were high for Pittman with Matt Ryan under center. Ryan’s past ability to throw downfield – 11th in PFF passing grade on throws of 20-plus air yards in 2021 – looked like the perfect fit with Pittman as a vertical threat. The Colts’ wide receiver finished 19th in air yards share (29%) in 2021.

However, Ryan and the Colts’ offensive line struggled immensely in 2022, putting Pittman in a position to be strictly used as an underneath option. His 7.7 aDOT ranked 13th-lowest among 101 qualifying WRs last season, so even though the Colts WR maintained his alpha role — 93% route participation, 27% target share, 12th in total targets —his sheer lack of high-value opportunities made it very difficult for Pittman to deliver spiked weeks of fantasy production if he didn’t score.

I always knew in the back of my mind that if Pittman failed to deliver in 2022, it would be due to a lack of TDs; that fear played out in the worst way, with him only scoring four touchdowns.

Pittman remains an interesting buy-low candidate this offseason with the sour taste he left in people’s mouths. He still commanded an elite 27% target share, but the yardage and TDs just weren’t there in Indianapolis’ anemic offense. No guarantee that he will improve his production in 2023 with mobile rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson under center sooner rather than later. No doubt Pittman will be valued extremely closer to his floor than his ceiling heading into next season. In 2022 he was definitely being drafted at his ceiling, which was why his WR23 finish seems like a major L.

Current Situation

Entering 2023, Pittman’s ADP has fallen to WR28 in early best ball drafts as the projected No.1 WR for the Colts. He is still the clear alpha in a projected run-heavy offense, ahead of second-year WR Alec Pierce and journeyman special teamer Isaiah McKenzie. The Colts also drafted slot WR Josh Downs in the third round, which could create more opportunities for Pittman to run more downfield routes. Recall that Pittman posted a 10.3 aDOT as a sophomore when he finished top-20 in yards per route run, PFF receiving grade and total fantasy points scored (half-PPR) at the wide receiver position.

Still, the glaring concern for Pittman is that Colts offense will likely be at the bottom of the league in total passing attempts. Also, Richarson hardly profiles as a super accurate quarterback in Year 1 that will fuel Pittman to a top fantasy finish. The first-rounder’s big arm and Pittman’s talent/every down role will no doubt result in spike weeks, but the consistency won’t be there for Pittman with an inexperienced passer at the helm.

General Outlook for 2023 and Rest of Career

It makes sense to be bearish on Pittman heading into the 2023 season because the situation he is in has not improved. He is still the clear alpha in a low-volume passing offense that will likely experience shoddy quarterback play. It’s unfortunate for his real-life situation as he is slated to hit free agency in 2024, as it will be tough for him to increase his free agency stock. However, that also means his situation could change drastically in the future, making him a player I would buy low on a rebuilding team. The talent is clearly there for the 25-year-old, but I can’t envision a scenario where he returns anything but WR3 fantasy value in 2023 alone.

Case in point, he is WR21 in the FantasyPros Dynasty Value Chart, but lands at WR28 in the 2023 ECR rankings. I have him ranked as WR32, so I am currently not getting any exposure to him. It wouldn’t shock me if Pierce puts up similar production or an even share of spike weeks to Pittman as the Colts’ true deep threat in an expanded full-time role. Pierce finished 10th in yards per reception (14.5) and first in the percentage of routes run aligned on the perimeter (93.2%). The 2022 second-rounder’s ADP is WR65.