Fantasy football is a game of expecting the unexpected. Every year the preseason ADP never looks like the end-of-season results. However, the most volatile position is arguably quarterback.
Last year, the top five quarterbacks in the preseason ADP were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Yet, only Allen and Mahomes ended the season in the top five, finishing as the top-two scoring quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was the QB3 last season, while Joe Burrow and Geno Smith rounded out the top five. Hurts and Burrow had a top-10 ADP during the preseason, but Smith was well off the fantasy radar.
So which quarterbacks could be this year’s version of Smith? Let’s look at quarterbacks with an ADP outside the top 12 that could end the season in the top five.
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QB2s with Top-5 Potential
Trey Lance (SF) | QB26
Yes, Lance has to earn the starting role in San Francisco before becoming a top-five fantasy quarterback. However, Brock Purdy isn’t guaranteed the starting role either.
We’ve seen backup quarterbacks under Kyle Shanahan have a hot run before reverting to their natural position, including C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens. Lance was a No. 3 overall pick that has barely played in his career. Yet, he’s been productive when on the field.
Lance started two games as a rookie and played the second half of another matchup. In those games, he averaged 18 fantasy points per contest. However, considering that he only played 10 quarters of football instead of 12, the former North Dakota State star would have averaged 21.6 fantasy points per matchup. That would have made him the QB5 on a points-per-game basis last year.
Lance has the top supporting cast in the NFL. If he earns the starting role, the third-year quarterback has top-five potential.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
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