Projections and rankings are valuable resources to utilize throughout the NFL offseason, especially as fantasy managers are preparing for their upcoming drafts. But those projections and rankings aren’t 100% accurate. Otherwise, fantasy football would be easy. The data shows that some players are overrated, and some are underrated. Identifying these players can be the difference between winning your league and missing the playoffs altogether, especially if you have that knowledge prior to your draft and can use it to your advantage.
Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the most overrated player on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.
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Most Overrated Player on Each NFC North Team
NFC North
TEAM | ANDREW | DEREK | PAT | JOE |
Chicago Bears | D.J. Moore | D.J. Moore | Khalil Herbert | Darnell Mooney |
Detroit Lions | Jameson Williams | Jahmyr Gibbs | Jameson Williams | David Montgomery |
Green Bay Packers | A.J. Dillon | A.J. Dillon | A.J. Dillon | A.J. Dillon |
Minnesota Vikings | T.J. Hockenson | T.J. Hockenson | Kirk Cousins | Jordan Addison |
Chicago Bears – D.J. Moore
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been a huge supporter of D.J. Moore, but his open score falling to 67th out of 82 qualifying wide receivers last year is concerning. Also, factor in the low pass rate for Chicago this season, and it makes it difficult to push the button on Moore as a top-24 wide receiver. – DBro
Detroit Lions – Jameson Williams
Despite my initial admiration for Jameson Williams as he entered the NFL, his rookie season left much to be desired. Coming off a torn ACL, it was understandable that he was eased back into action. However, finishing the season with just one catch on eight targets, albeit a 41-yard touchdown, is underwhelming. Adding to the concerns, Williams is set to serve a six-game suspension to open the upcoming season, making it challenging to justify his top-100 overall ADP, particularly in non-best-ball formats. – Fitzmaurice
While it’s possible that I may be overanalyzing the balance between Williams’ talent and his suspension, it’s crucial to acknowledge the increased uncertainty surrounding his draft value. Just know that if you want in on the Williams’ hype train it won’t be at the discount it should be. Williams was extremely limited in 2022 with just 34 routes run. The former 12th overall draft pick was hyper-targeted when on the field with a 26% target rate per route run to go along with the league’s 6th-highest average depth of target. – Erickson
Green Bay Packers – A.J. Dillon
With 16 touchdowns in 45 career games, Dillon hasn’t been able to establish himself as a goal-line specialist even though he’s 247 pounds. He contributes little as a pass catcher, and he has nothing close to a monopoly on early-down work for the Packers because teammate Aaron Jones is a better player. Dillon has averaged 1.8 targets a game over his three seasons, and he’s topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage only once, with 1,116 yards in 2021. NFL fans love their big backs — Earl Campbell, Derrick Henry, Mike Alstott, Craig “Ironhead” Heyward — but our love for the king-sized Dillon has thus far been unrequited. – Fitzmaurice
Minnesota Vikings – T.J. Hockenson
Last year after arriving in Minnesota, T.J. Hockenson saw a 21.8% target share (sixth-best) and 26% target per route run rate (11th-best). With the arrival of Jordan Addison, those numbers aren’t coming back. Hockenson had no problems beating out K.J. Osborn and a washed Adam Thielen for targets despite only ranking 30th in yards per route run over his final ten games. Addison won’t be such a pushover. Addison is immensely talented and can play both the boundary and the slot. After last year Hockenson is being valued as a borderline elite tight end which he is not. – DBro
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