5 Dynasty Rookie Draft Busts to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

We’ll have you covered as you prepare for your dynasty rookie drafts. In order to dominate your dynasty rookie draft, check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings. And sync your league to practice with fast and free dynasty rookie mock drafts. Below, I provide a few potential dynasty rookie draft busts to avoid as you prepare for your leagues.

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Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington): Overall ECR 1QB/SF 27/17 | QB5

Penix has good zip on the ball. He’s a max effort thrower and tosses the pigskin like a shot put. In a clean pocket, he can put some nice second-level and layered throws on tape. He has pretty good ball placement, but it can be inconsistent. He limits YAC opportunities for his wide receivers on some reps as he delivers a catchable ball, but it’s not in stride with his receivers as they are left waiting on the ball. Penix feels a tick behind on plenty of plays. There are too many instances of him holding the ball on film and missing a receiver running open only to deliver the ball after a corner is closing in. He’s very much a see-it, throw-it quarterback at this juncture, as there aren’t enough instances of him throwing with anticipation. His receivers will be at the top of their stem, and the ball should come out, but he’ll hold it until they have cleared a corner. Too often, Penix locks on his first read. While there are a ton of plays where he gets the ball out quickly, those plays, in many instances, are scripted plays or wide receiver screens. When his first read is covered, Penix tends to force the ball to his receiver anyway. There’s plenty to be said for tossing it up and expecting his receivers to win 50/50 balls, but this is more than that. He gets hyper-focused on his first reads and stares them down from the moment the ball is snapped. Penix too often leaves yards on the field. He shies away from using the middle of the field and, many times, won’t see a receiver streaking wide open on a slant or crosser until they cross his face. Penix has a decent pocket presence. He’ll roll out to avoid pressure, but rarely will you see him hang in and climb the pocket. He has no issues hanging in versus pressure, though, and taking a big hit to deliver the ball to his receiver. Overall, he feels a tick slow to feel pressure or the pass rush.

Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State): Overall ECR 6 | WR4

Coleman relies upon being a catch-point bully. Coleman is saved at the catch point by his ridiculous wing span and strong hands. He is adept at corralling high-point balls but doesn’t display the ability to adjust well to low throws or passes that might be behind him, which hinders me from saying that he has a huge catch radius. It also has to be stated that he dealt with poor ball placement from his quarterbacks in 2023. He has a lot of rounded routes, lacking suddenness and nuance on his ledger. Coleman doesn’t display the route running or release package skill set at this juncture to look at him as a consistent separator off the line or during his stem. Corners have no issues hanging with him on most routes. He doesn’t have the raw speed to stack corners, but he flashes strong ball tracking downfield. Coleman should translate as a red zone weapon to the NFL. With his size and high point skills, that should be an avenue of usage from Day 1. He also boxes out defenders well, like a power forward going up for a rebound. He’s not a consistent YAC threat. Coleman doesn’t have the quick twitch or raw speed to do a ton after the catch with screens. He can break tackles, though, simply because of his upper body strength, especially against smaller defenders.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU): Overall ECR 9 | WR6

Thomas is a traits-based prospect with a legit 4.4-lifting speed. He can take the top off a defense and burn by a corner in the blink of an eye. Thomas faced a ton of off-coverage in college, with corners afraid to get beat over the top by him. As a field stretcher, he offers solid ball tracking deep and a “my ball” mentality at the catch point. He has good body control for a receiver his size. He’ll be a good fit in an offense built upon creating explosives and with a strong deep ball rate. Thomas was tasked with a limited route tree at LSU. His game logs consisted of a ton of stop routes, gos, and fade routes. He was tasked with running to space against zone. You won’t find many in-breaking routes on his film outside of the occasional crosser. Thomas has a decent gear down for his size with the ability to gain separation on comebacks, but he saw hefty cushions in coverage. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles corners pressing him or playing tighter in the NFL. He has the upper body strength and hand-fighting to put up a fight against press, but it’s more of a projection since we haven’t seen him do it much. He’s not much of a threat after the catch, with only 5.3 yards after the catch per reception in college. His transition from receiver to rusher is methodical, considering his size. He’s not a twitchy player, as his hips look stiff once he has the ball in his hands and is asked to create after the catch.

Xavier Legette (WR – South Carolina): Overall ECR 24 | WR12

Legette is a long-striding boundary receiver. He plays bigger than his listed size suggests. He has superb back-shoulder ball skills and body control in the air. Legette has a big catch radius as he high points the ball well with a pair of strong hands. He is a developmental wide receiver who needs to improve on the little things of the position. Legette has good deceleration at the top of his stem for his size, but it can be inconsistent. He’ll have a few routes where he sharply drops his hips and decelerates, leaving corners searching, and then he’ll be lax and get clunky with his footwork at the top of his stem. Legette needs to sell his vertical push more consistently. Many routes look strong, but then he’ll sneak in some reps where he’s telegraphing his intentions. The need for consistency bleeds over into other areas of his game. He lacks consistent spatial awareness against zone drifting on some routes where he should put the brakes on in space. His releases need work. Legette opts for speed releases on many routes, but he needs to continue to hone his footwork and add more release tactics to the tool bag. His footwork has to continue to improve if he hopes to gain separation off the line in the NFL, especially on short area and intermediate routes. He plays bigger than his size would indicate, which is a plus in some areas, but it’s not here as he runs and has the footwork speed of a bigger-bodied wide receiver.

Devontez Walker (WR – North Carolina): Overall ECR 26 | WR13

Field stretcher. Walker finished his collegiate career with 16.8 ypr and a 17.1 aDOT. He was a limited route tree player, with the majority of his opportunities coming on stop routes and go balls with some screens and posts tossed in. I would have loved to have seen Walker utilized on slants more where he could take advantage of his size and strong hands in traffic. Walker must continue to add to his bag of tricks as a receiver. He will round off his routes and routinely leaves corners unstacked on nine routes, which leads to issues at the catch point. Walker’s strong mitts and solid ball placement by Drake Maye helped to mitigate corners at the catch point, but this will be an issue for him in the NFL. He does have some good reps, exhibiting good body control and the ability to play above the rim. Walker needs to continue to improve his gear down and sink his hips on comebacks and curls. He’s a long strider with build-up speed that plays better with downfield assignments. Walker likely slots in as a situational deep threat in the NFL unless he can continue to improve in these other areas.

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