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Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Data Analysis (2024 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Data Analysis (2024 Fantasy Football)

Free agency is in full swing but the draft still looms large on the calendar. Until then, we are left with little to do in regards to rookies but to complete dynasty mock drafts or select them in best ball leagues. This article will compare rookie average draft position (ADP) from our mock draft simulator and rankings with the current best ball data from Underdog to see how they compare.

Analyzing Rookie ADP Data

1.01: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – OSU)

The unquestioned 1.01 in single-QB dynasty formats is also by far the earliest rookie taken in best ball drafts with Marvin Harrison Jr. going at pick 17.8 as the WR11. While Harrison’s potential outlook in dynasty is easy to accept as being excellent, no matter the landing spot, it matters more for redraft than dynasty where a player lands. Over a few years, it’s much easier for a player to return value in dynasty as schemes and position groups get shuffled around. However, a bad landing spot for a rookie, perhaps like the New England Patriots, could make it difficult for Harrison Jr. to pay off straightaway. It’s entirely possible Harrison Jr. is being drafted at his ceiling right now.

1.02: Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)

Coming off a dominant third-year season, Malik Nabers put up 1,568 yards and 14 touchdowns for LSU and is very close to, if not ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr in many analysts’ rookie models. Many people in dynasty drafts are already considering if they can trade back to gain a haul and still acquire Malik Nabers because of their proximity. In best ball drafts, though, Nabers goes 16 picks later than Harrison Jr. at 33.4. Nabers is being drafted as the WR23. If anything, he’s slightly undervalued while Harrison Jr. is slightly overvalued. 

1.03: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)

Single-QB dynasty leagues tend to have a lot of variance at quarterback but our rankings and mock draft simulator have Caleb Williams at 1.03, while Sleeper has him at 1.04. In best ball, however, Williams is the QB15, being drafted at pick 114.6. Williams is viewed as the closest comparable player to Patrick Mahomes since Mahomes entered the league in 2017. He is also viewed as the first overall pick in April’s draft. The Bears have been heavily linked to upgrading the pass-catching core around DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, making a splash for D’Andre Swift on Day One of free agency. If another flashy receiver is added, then it might be time Williams starts climbing up draft boards into the top 100 picks.

1.04: Rome Odunze (WR – WAS)

Depending on where you look, you might see Brock Bowers ahead of Rome Odunze. Odunze’s impressive combine performance, competing in all drills, brought him closer to the big two wide receivers at the top of draft boards in both best ball and dynasty. Odunze is pick 47 in best ball, WR26 overall in a very similar range to where Ja’Marr Chase was drafted in his rookie year. As a late breakout player, who really got going in his third year and then exploded in his fourth year, there is a wider range of outcomes with Odunze than the receivers ahead of him.

1.05: Brock Bowers (TE – Georgia)

In TE-premium formats, it was speculated not too long ago that Brock Bowers was the type of talent who could be taken first overall as a true difference-maker out the gate. There still seems to be an air of trepidation around rookie tight ends, though, thanks in no small part to the savage hand-burning many received getting on board the Kyle Pitts hype train. Not to mention Dalton Kincaid being the chosen one in 2023 and being outplayed by Sam LaPorta, who was available 40 picks later in best ball. Bowers has been mocked as high as the fifth pick in the draft and as low as the late teens, making it hard to gauge his landing spot. Unlike Caleb Williams, there is plenty of the unknown here, keeping Bowers from getting too expensive in best ball where he has an ADP of 76, notably lower than Kyle Pitts’ rookie season ADP of 48.

1.06: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)

In dynasty drafts, we’ve approached the area where the speedster wide receivers go off the board, and for good reason with them being high-ceiling plays. In best ball, Brian Thomas Jr. goes ahead of Brock Bowers at pick 66.1 in a similar range to Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison and George Pickens. It feels like the right range of the draft to take a dart throw on a player who ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 209 pounds. Thomas needs to refine his route running to massively return fantasy value. However, at this range of best ball ADP, we can deal with some low-floor weeks if it means we’re mixing in some high-ceiling weeks.

1.07: Xavier Worthy (WR – Texas)

The new NFL Combine 40-yard dash record holder, Xavier Worthy, heads to the NFL as a very different prospect from the last player who broke the record (John Ross). Worthy broke out at age 18 and had an interesting college career, being utilized or living on manufactured touches. In best ball, the community is unexpectedly calm about Worthy, drafting him at 114.6 overall (WR7). Worthy can absolutely return value at this price in the right landing spot. Currently, it’s not uncommon to see Worthy mocked to the Chiefs. If that happens, expect a two-round jump in ADP.

1.08: Troy Franklin (WR – Oregon)

The speedster out of Oregon was viewed as someone who could be a solid contributor right out of the gate but after a disappointing NFL Combine performance, the 176-pound receiver sat just inside the top 100 at pick 98.4. Troy Franklin struggles to create separation if he doesn’t have a free release and sometimes struggles with more physical corners, which doesn’t spell great things for his adjustment to the NFL. Franklin is going between Diontae Johnson and Jakobi Meyers, both more appealing options.

1.09: Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)

The rookie RB1 in dynasty ADP, despite suffering an ACL injury in November, Jonathon Brooks is being drafted as the RB2 on Underdog, with an ADP of 117.3, just behind the RB1, Trey Benson at pick 116. Drafting running backs coming off an ACL injury typically doesn’t tend to work out but recency bias might have people remembering Breece Hall overcoming the odds to succeed in 2023. Hall had a litany of things in his favor, however, including quarterbacks prone to checking down and an established role in the offense. Meanwhile, Brooks will miss most or all of training camp, which is problematic for a rookie who will have to earn touches. I would be more comfortable drafting Brooks around the 150 range but drafters think otherwise.

1.10: Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)

Keon Coleman saved his less-than-impressive 4.61 40-yard dash result with an impressive showing in the gauntlet drill. Nevertheless, his stock overall has slipped somewhat from where he was expected to be drafted a few months ago. In best ball, Coleman is the rookie WR8, being drafted behind Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell at pick 119.9. Drafters are mindful of last year’s burned picks on Quentin Johnston, who went in a similar range. Until Coleman has a landing spot, he’s unlikely to climb higher in ADP.

1.11: Adonai Mitchell (WR – Texas)

One of the flashiest prospects in this draft, Adonai Mitchell is the eighth wide receiver drafted in rookie drafts but the sixth rookie receiver off the board in best ball, drafted at pick 107.6, ahead of Worthy and Coleman. Mitchell is drafted between Courtland Sutton and Marquise Brown. Mitchell belongs in that tier as he’s by no means a sure-fire prospect, rarely playing up to his size and strength against corners, which will get worse in the NFL. Mitchell is a fine pick in best ball as your WR5 or WR6. 

1.12: Drake Maye (QB – UNC)

In single-QB formats, it won’t be uncommon to see just one quarterback make it off the board in the first round. When a second does, it may well be Jayden Daniels, who is drafted 20 picks ahead of Drake Maye on Underdog, with Daniels at 124.1 and Maye at 144.1. Maye doesn’t possess the same dual-threat abilities Daniels does but he rushed for almost 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college. Maye is a more polished passer than Daniels and should be able to sustain hits better. At pick 144.1, Maye is in a similar range to where CJ Stroud went last year, who was also largely ignored by drafters. Lightning might not strike twice but some exposure to Maye sounds sensible.

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