Welcome back, everybody! NFL Week 15 is officially in the books, and that means we are onto the fantasy football playoffs! As we head into Week 16, my focus is shifting to rest-of-season outlooks for players, especially now that trade deadlines have passed. This means more emphasis on stock up and stock down for players and actionable insights like PrizePicks plays, player props, start/sit decisions, and who to stash, drop, or add off the waiver wire.
My goal remains the same: to do the heavy lifting for you by analyzing the key data points so you can focus on making the moves that matter for your fantasy football team. As my college marketing professor used to say, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is alive and well here.
I’ll continue to highlight critical data points from the past week – snap shares, routes run, and high-value opportunities – and help separate the noise from what’s actionable. Polarizing performances will remain a focal point, as they often create the most questions for fantasy managers.
This will also be the final edition featuring trade advice and graphics, as trade deadlines are now over. Moving forward, we’ll shift our attention to optimizing rosters and leveraging platforms like PrizePicks and other player-focused strategies.
Prizepicks has a great offer for those looking to dive into the platform for the first time- use my promo code PR-REQ653D – to get $25 in funds instantly!
And just so I can hit it up at the top, here are the top and bottom schedules for the rest of the season based on schedules to consider by each position via the FantasyPros SOS tool:
Top-Schedules:
- QB – Buccaneers, Eagles, Falcons, Titans, Cardinals, Browns
- RB – Buccaneers, Browns, Raiders, Eagles, Lions, Falcons
- WR – Bills, Rams, Patriots, Jets, Chargers, Steelers, Panthers
- TE – Giants, Titans, Buccaneers, Raiders, Eagles Jaguars
- DST – Jaguars, Colts, Buccaneers, Bills, Bengals, Chargers
- K – Joshua Karty, Tyler Bass, Cam Little, Chad Ryland, Chase McLaughlin
Bottom-Schedules:
- QB – Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Seahawks
- RB – Cowboys, Rams, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Steelers
- WR – Cowboys, 49ers, Bears, Colts, Saints
- TE – Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Jets, Panthers, Bills, Chargers
- DST – Jets, Texans. Bears
- K –Will Reichard, Younghoe Koo, Will Lutz, Jason Sanders
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the Fantasy Forecast and prepare to crush Week 16.
- More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Week 16 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below:
Los Angeles Rams
Hold Blake Corum | Stock Up Kyren Williams | Hold Matthew Stafford | Stock Down Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford completed 16 of 27 passes for 160 yards and no touchdowns, with a respectable 76.2 passer rating. Despite the lack of scoring through the air, Stafford spread the ball around to multiple receivers in rainy, wet conditions.
Kyren Williams led the charge on the ground with 29 carries for 108 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry but failing to find the end zone. Williams, the lead back, played 86% of the offensive snaps and totaled eight carries in the red zone.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford also added to the total with four carries for 18 yards, while Puka Nacua chipped in with two carries for 11 yards, and Blake Corum contributed three carries for 5 yards on a 14% snap rate.
Puka Nacua was the standout in the passing game, catching 7 of 8 targets for 97 yards, leading the team in receiving yards. Nacua had the most air yards (81), making up 46% of the total air yards for the Rams.
Demarcus Robinson saw substantial time as well, playing 78% of the snaps. He only drew one target.
Colby Parkinson, the tight end, finished with 21 yards on two receptions on five targets (31% target rate), adding depth to the passing attack. Tutu Atwell made a small impact with 6 yards on one catch, while Corum, a rookie, added 15 yards on two catches. Parkinson had 18% of the team’s air yards, while Tutu Atwell added 10%.
Parkinson played 49% of the snaps as a key contributor in the tight end rotation.
Hunter Long also had 17 yards on two catches, contributing in key moments.
Cooper Kupp, despite three targets, was unable to make a reception in the game. It should rebound (nowhere to go but up), but I think he is further from the back-end WR1 range. Note that he had zero targets in the second half when the rain started to let up, allowing the Rams offense to function closer to normal.
The Target share was well-distributed, with Nacua leading the team at 31%, followed by Parkinson at 19%, and Kupp at 12%.
This week, they are @ NYJ, and they close out the fantasy football season vs ARI.
With Nacua and Kupp healthy this season, Stafford has tossed for at least 250.5 passing yards in seven of his nine starts. Take the MORE than on PrizePicks for Week 16 with his passing yards prop set at 244.5 passing yards.
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San Francisco 49ers
Buy Jauan Jennings | Sell Deebo Samuel
Brock Purdy led the 49ers’ passing game, completing 14 of 31 passes for 142 yards. He didn’t throw any touchdowns or interceptions in the rain, finishing with a passer rating of 45.4.
According to Next Gen Stats, Brock Purdy attempted a career-high seven deep passes (20+ air yards) in Week 15, however, he finished 0-for-7 on deep passes including an interception.
Isaac Guerendo was the team’s top rusher, carrying the ball 16 times for 57 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, with a long of 16 yards. Guerendo added four receptions for 18 yards on four targets.
Although he didn’t find the end zone, his performance helped establish the run game in the rainy, wet conditions.
Deebo Samuel had two carries for 3 yards (1.5 average) and Brock Purdy added one carry for 3 yards (3.0 average) as the team mixed in some plays to keep the defense honest.
George Kittle was Purdy’s primary target, finishing with four receptions for 61 yards on seven targets (23% Target share). He was able to make several important catches, helping to move the chains. Guerendo had 76% of the snaps, playing a major role in the rushing and passing game despite entering the game with a questionable tag.
Kittle has had at least 40 receiving yards in every game this season besides one. 45-plus in ten straight games aside from the snowy Buffalo game. Over 54.5 yards in nine of his last 11 games.
Jauan Jennings added two receptions for 31 yards, converting nine targets into a solid, if unspectacular, outing. Jennings had a high air yards percentage, with 121 air yards, and recorded a 29% Target share. The conditions hurt him badly, and I think he will bounce back in Week 16.
He is clearly still the 49ers’ WR1 for the rest of the season, by all accounts.
Ricky Pearsall and Deebo Samuel also contributed. Pearsall had one reception for 16 yards, while Samuel caught just three passes for 16 yards, but he dropped an easy walk-in touchdown.
Samuel was involved in both the ground and passing games, as he was used in various ways. Samuel had 15% of the team’s air yards, with 57 total air yards and a 23% Target share.
Samuel has been beyond terrible for fantasy football purposes, and that was on full display Thursday night. At this point in the year, no kind of usage is going to change his production. He has had opportunities to deliver and has fallen well short of expectations. Take the LESS than on his receiving line on Prizepicks. It’s set at 47.5 yards. He hasn’t had more than 22 yards in five straight games.
Kittle and Jauan Jennings were heavily involved, playing 96% and 94% of the offensive snaps, respectively.
The 49ers finish the season with the Dolphins and Lions.
Go over on Brock Purdy‘s 247.5 passing yards on Prizepicks. He has been bad in three of his last four. But he has exceeded this number in 7 of his 13 games this season (54%) – six of nine with Kittle, Samuel, and Jennings all in the lineup.
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Miami Dolphins
Stock Down Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill | Buy De’Von Achane | Stock Up Jonnu Smith | Add Raheem Mostert & Malik Washington
Tua Tagovailoa completed 29 of 40 passes for 196 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 60.0. The three interceptions stalled several promising drives.
De’Von Achane: Led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 41 yards (3.4 YPC), with a long of 7 yards.
Achane was active in the passing game, catching all seven targets for 35 yards, with a long of 13 yards—66% snap share.
Raheem Mostert: Struggled to find space, managing only six carries for 8 yards (1.3 YPC), with a long of 6 yards. Raheem Mostert was efficient with limited opportunities, hauling in all three targets for 13 yards—38% snap share.
Jaylen Wright: Had 1 carry for 3 yards on just a 4% snap share. He can be dropped as Mostert has reclaimed handcuff status in Miami.
Malik Washington: Emerging as a reliable target, he caught 5 of 6 targets for 52 yards, including a long reception of 20 yards. He has already been the No. 3 WR in the offense, but he fully captured the role after the team cut ties with Odell Beckham Jr. Washington continued to show promise with big-play potential, leading the team with 52 receiving yards.
Jonnu Smith: Dominated the Target share with 11 targets (28% Target share and 36% target rate per route run), catching nine passes for 48 yards and the Dolphins’ only receiving touchdown (one of his two red-zone targets). Smith has led the Dolphins in catches/yards in the last seven weeks.
Tyreek Hill was limited to just two catches on seven targets for 36 yards, though he had a long reception of 21 yards. Hill was held in check by Texans CB Derek Stingley, which was Miami’s explosive passing game. Hill had chances with 108 air yards but couldn’t separate from the Texans’ defense.
According to Next Gen Stats, Stingley Jr. allowed only 30 yards on six receptions (10 targets) as the nearest defender in coverage in Week 15 against the Dolphins, including two interceptions (both on targets to Tyreek Hill).
Stingley’s 10 targets against are his most in a game since his rookie season. His -22.0 EPA, when targeted as the nearest defender this season, ranks 5th in the NFL, entering the rest of the Week 15 slate.
Durham Smythe: He had one reception for 8 yards on his only target. River Cracraft: Added one catch for 6 yards. Jaylen Waddle was targeted twice but recorded no receptions. He also left the game with an injury, but it is not deemed to be too serious.
Grant DuBose: Had one catch for -2 yards before being carted off with a very scary neck injury.
Miami will play vs. SF and @ CLE to round out the fantasy football season.
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Houston Texans
Drop C.J. Stroud | Stock Down Tank Dell | Stock Up Nico Collins
C.J. Stroud: Completed 18 of 26 passes for 131 yards with two touchdowns and 0 interceptions, posting a passer rating of 106.4. Stroud relied on quick, short passes to keep the offense moving.
Dare Ogunbowale: Recorded one carry for 35 yards, breaking off the Texans’ longest rushing play of the game on a fake punt play in the third quarter.
Joe Mixon: Led the backfield with 12 carries for 23 yards (1.9 YPC), with a long run of 5 yards, struggling to find room against a tough defensive front. He rushed thrice in the red zone but failed to score a touchdown.
Mixon was a primary option in both the run game and short passing game, leading the team in touches. Mixon was a reliable checkdown option, catching 5 of 6 targets (24% Target share) for 33 yards, with a long of 15 yards.
However, he did get hurt briefly in the second quarter, so monitor his injury status heading into Week 16 (a shorter week as the Texans play on Saturday). Early reports claim that he is “fine,” so hopefully nothing to worry about.
Tank Dell: He had one carry for 15 yards on an explosive run.
C.J. Stroud: Added six carries for 4 yards, often scrambling under pressure.
Nico Collins: Led the team with six targets (24% Target share), catching four passes for 17 yards and two touchdowns, solidifying his role as the Texans’ top red zone target. Collins dominated in the red zone, scoring both of Stroud’s passing touchdowns.
John Metchie: Caught 2 of 4 targets (one red-zone target, 22% Target share) for 17 yards, including a 10-yard grab.
Tank Dell: Hauled in both of his targets for 26 yards, showcasing his big-play ability with a long of 15 yards. After the bye week, this is where we expected to see a healthy Dell. But that was not the case. The downfield shots to Dell that inspired us last season are non-existent in 2024. He can be dropped.
Xavier Hutchinson: Made a single catch for 13 yards on his lone target.
Robert Woods: Caught both of his targets for 12 yards, with a long of 12 yards.
Dalton Schultz: Contributed two receptions on four targets for 13 yards, with a long of 9 yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Texans won despite putting up a season-low 181 total yards in Week 15 against the Dolphins. The 181 yards were the fewest by the Texans in a win since Week 17 of the 2006 season against the Cleveland Browns (179).
Houston continues the fantasy football playoffs against the Chiefs and Ravens.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Stock Up Xavier Worthy | Stock Down Travis Kelce & Patrick Mahomes | Sell Kareem Hunt & Isiah Pacheco
Patrick Mahomes completed 19 of 38 passes for 159 yards, throwing two touchdowns with no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 78.7. Mahomes added mobility, rushing 2 times for 14 yards (7.0 YPC), with a long of 10 yards.
Carson Wentz played briefly, completing 2 of 2 passes for 20 yards, with a perfect passer rating of 108.3. Wentz logged three carries for 0 yards, primarily as a situational quarterback.
Obviously, the biggest concern is Mahomes’ availability for Weeks 16 and 17. The Chiefs have to play two games in the next ten games. He has been labeled week-to-week. KC has a one-game lead for the No. 1 seed, so they could technically afford to “rest” Mahomes for one game to have him a fuller strength for Weeks 17-18. They only have to win two of their last three remaining games to lock up the No. 1 seed.
If it’s Wentz under center, you might have to strongly consider benching all Chiefs players in Week 16.
Kareem Hunt: Led the backfield with 13 carries for 45 yards (3.5 YPC), including a long run of 12 yards. Hunt caught 1 pass on two targets for 4 yards.
Isiah Pacheco: Struggled to find running lanes, finishing with 13 carries for 32 yards (2.5 YPC), with a long of 9 yards. Pacheco: Added a catch, securing one target for 15 yards.
Samaje Perine had one carry for 11 yards, showing efficiency when called upon. Perine made his lone target count, with one reception for 23 yards.
The Chiefs RBs split snaps 28 apiece (37% each). First half-carries were 9 for Pacheco and 7 for Hunt. Hunt had the edge in the red zone with two carries in that area over Pacheco’s one.
I was afraid this backfield might get messy. KC is reluctant to turn it over fully to Pacheco, and Perine chipping in doesn’t help anyone.
KC will play vs HOU and @ PIT the next two weeks. Sell the backfield.
Rookie Xavier Worthy exploded on a trick play, rushing 3 times for 30 yards (10.0 YPC) and scoring one rushing touchdown, including a highlight 21-yard run.
Worthy also dominated targets, receiving 11 targets (two red-zone targets, 29% Target share, and 93 air yards) and catching six passes for 46 yards (7.7 YPR), with a long gain of 12 yards.
The rookie has been coming on lately, leading the Chiefs in receiving yards since Week 11.
He has four catches or more in five straight games, with 40-plus yards.
DeAndre Hopkins: Hauled in 5 of 6 targets for 36 yards (7.2 YPR), with a long catch of 12 yards.
The veteran WR continues to hover around the 45%-55% snap mark, but it hasn’t mattered because of his high target rate per route run (33% in Week 14 and 32% in Week 15). In the last five games, Hopkins has an 18% Target share but a 28% target rate per route run.
Travis Kelce: Steady but limited, catching 4 of 8 targets for 27 yards (6.8 YPR), including an 8-yard long reception. Kelce had 90 air yards and a 21% Target share.
Noah Gray: Scored a key red zone touchdown, catching 2 of 5 targets for 21 yards, including a long of 15 yards.
Given Gray’s emergence, Kelce’s decline, potential downgrade at QB, and a tough matchup versus the Texans, Kelce might be a sit this week among TEs if you don’t have any alternatives you feel strongly about. He will be ranked lower than he usually is. This season, Kelce has finished UNDER 45.5 receiving yards at a 50% hit rate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Finished with one reception on three targets for 7 yards, scoring 1 receiving touchdown in the red zone.
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Cleveland Browns
Add Jerome Ford & Cedric Tillman| Drop Elijah Moore | Stock Down Jerry Jeudy | Hold David Njoku
Jameis Winston: Completed 16 of 25 passes for 146 yards, with 0 touchdowns and three interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 40.2. He was benched.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Played relief snaps, completing 4 of 9 passes for 18 yards with one interception, posting a rating of 12.0. DTR showcased mobility, running 3 times for 16 yards (5.3 YPC) with a long run of 9 yards. He was announced as the Week 16 starter. Huge downgrade for the entire Browns offense.
Jerome Ford: Led the ground attack with seven carries for 84 yards (12.0 YPC), including a 62-yard touchdown run, showcasing his explosiveness. Ford made his presence felt in the passing game, catching 2 of 2 targets for 20 yards, with a long reception of 26 yards.
He finished with a 58% snap share and will look for a larger workload for the rest of the season.
Nick Chubb had consistent gains with nine carries for 41 yards (4.6 YPC), with a long of 8 yards. Chubb broke his foot and will miss the remainder of the season.
I would expect D’Onta Foreman to be active going forward, given the severity of Chubb’s injury.
The schedule is softer against the Bengals and Dolphins to finish the season for the Browns offense (assuming we get Winston back at QB).
Jerry Jeudy: Dominated the Target share with 14 targets, catching 11 passes for 108 yards (9.8 YPR), with a long gain of 20 yards. 44% Target share and air yard share (117 air yards).
Since Winston took over in Week 8, Jeudy has led the Browns in all major receiving categories. Although the usage has been relatively close between him, Moore, and Tillman on a per-game basis, the former first-round pick has made the most of his opportunities-which was apparent again in Week 15.
Jordan Akins: Hauled in 3 of 4 targets (13% Target share) for 30 yards, including a 12-yard catch. He filled in for David Njoku, who was inactive.
Michael Woods: Caught 2 of 3 targets for 7 yards playing in the Cedric Tillman role (also inactive). Woods played 100% of the snaps.
Elijah Moore: Targeted 6 times but managed only two catches for -1 yard. He had 84 air yards (32%).
Jamari Thrash, Nick Chubb, and Blake Whiteheart: Each had one target but recorded no receptions.
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Dallas Cowboys
Stock Up Rico Dowdle | Hold CeeDee Lamb | Hold Jake Ferguson
Cooper Rush completed 18 of 29 passes for 214 yards, throwing three touchdowns with 0 interceptions, and finished with an impressive 119.0 passer rating.
Rico Dowdle carried the ball 25 times for 149 yards (6.0 YPC), with a long run of 12 yards. Despite not finding the end zone, Dowdle was a workhorse for the offense playing 74% of the offensive snaps. Although he was not targeted in the passing game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Dowdle became the first undrafted player with three straight 100+ rushing-yard games since Arian Foster in Weeks 5-8, 2014.
Ezekiel Elliott contributed with nine carries for 30 yards (3.3 YPC), including a long of 5 yards. He only played 19% of the snaps. Elliott caught his only target for 11 yards.
KaVontae Turpin showed explosiveness on limited carries, rushing 2 times for 27 yards (13.5 YPC), including a team-long 16-yard run. Turpin was targeted once but failed to secure a reception.
Rush also added 4 carries for 5 yards (1.3 YPC), primarily on scrambles.
CeeDee Lamb delivered another top-tier elite performance, catching 9 of 13 targets (31.0% Target share) for 116 yards (12.9 YPR) and 1 touchdown. His longest reception was 28 yards. Caught a touchdown inside the red zone, continuing to be Rush’s most reliable target. The Cowboys No. 1 WR totaled a 46% Target share and 49% air yards share.
Brandin Cooks secured 3 receptions on 5 targets (18% Target share) for 34 yards (11.3 YPR), including a long gain of 18 yards.
Jake Ferguson: The tight end hauled in 2 of 4 targets (14% Target share) for 23 yards, with a long reception of 19 yards. His snaps/routes were down, but that’s more related to the blow-out factor—great matchup on deck versus the Buccaneers.
Jalen Brooks: Made a big play on his lone target, catching one pass for 17 yards and one red-zone touchdown.
Jalen Tolbert: Converted 1 of 2 targets into an 11-yard reception for a red-zone touchdown.
Brevin Spann-Ford: Added one catch on one target for 2 yards.
The rest of the schedule is as follows: vs TB, @ PHI. It’s a juicy matchup in Week 16, but Lamb remains a volume-dependent top-end fantasy WR2 without Dak Prescott. Not useless by any means but limited in some capacity. Tampa Bay is a great spot, but the Eagles will be a tough matchup for him to overcome.
Note that all his games with Rush back in 2022 weren’t great (similar to this season). It’s going to be up-and-down, and I’m fearful of being on the wrong side of the Rush experience come fantasy football playoff time. He could destroy you against the Eagles’ strong defense if he duds out.
Other than at Philly, Rush could be a solid streamer in Week 16.
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Carolina Panthers
Stock Up Chuba Hubbard | Add Jalen Coker | Stock Up Adam Thielen
Bryce Young only completed 19 of 28 passes for 219 yards, throwing 1 touchdown but also 2 interceptions, leading to a passer rating of 73.4.
Chuba Hubbard: Led the backfield with 10 carries for 32 yards (3.2 YPC), including a long run of 12 yards. He dominated the snaps with a 95% snap rate.
Hubbard contributed as a receiver, catching all 4 of 4 targets for 17 yards (4.3 YPR), with a long of 6 yards.
Mike Boone was the primary backup. He made the most of limited touches, rushing 2 times for 14 yards (7.0 YPC), with a long of 9 yards on his three offensive snaps.
Bryce Young flashed his mobility, adding three carries for 12 yards (4.0 YPC) and scoring one rushing touchdown.
Xavier Legette: Chipped in with one carry for 2 yards. Legette finished with 2 catches on 3 targets for 7 yards (3.5 YPR), including a 5-yard gain. He got hurt with a groin injury and will likely miss Week 16.
Jalen Coker: Exploded for a massive play, catching 4 of 6 targets (22% Target share and team-high 34% air yards share) for 110 yards (27.5 YPR) and 1 touchdown, highlighted by a stunning 83-yard reception. He had missed the last few games but was immediately thrown back into a full-time role. He played the highest snap rate of any Panthers WR at 87%, running the second-most routes. The undrafted rookie WR from Holy Cross led the Panthers in total targets (9) when you consider he had three more that were negated by penalties.
Adam Thielen remained a reliable target, securing five receptions on seven targets for 51 yards (10.2 YPR), with a long gain of 18 yards. The long-time veteran led the team with a 26% Target share.
David Moore finished with two catches on four targets for 19 yards, including a long of 16 yards. He saw the lone red-zone target for the Panthers.
Tommy Tremble: The tight end hauled in 2 catches on two targets for 15 yards (7.5 YPR), with a long of 8 yards.
Ja’Tavion Sanders: Targeted once but failed to secure a reception. Tremble still ran more routes, making both TEs difficult to trust.
Turnovers (2 interceptions) hampered the offense, limiting red zone opportunities and scoring chances.
Coming out of a disappointing loss, Carolina will face the Cardinals and Buccaneers in the next two weeks. It’s a pretty good playoff schedule for a QB who has been on the rise.
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Baltimore Ravens
Hold Mark Andrews | Stock Up Rashod Bateman
Lamar Jackson: Put together a near-perfect outing, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, with an elite passer rating of 154.6.
Derrick Henry: Led the ground game with 14 carries for 67 yards (4.8 YPC), with a long of 13 yards. Jackson: Used his legs effectively, rushing 6 times for 65 yards (10.8 YPC), including a 21-yard run.
Rasheen Ali: Contributed eight carries for 32 yards (4.0 YPC), with a long of 9 yards.
Justice Hill: Added 2 carries for 7 yards (3.5 YPC). Hill also played a key role in the passing game, catching all five targets (21% Target share) for 61 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 27 yards.
Rashod Bateman: Led the team with 3 catches on 5 targets (21% Target share) for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a long of 49 yards. The Ravens WR dominated the air yards with 112 (47%) as he took full advantage of the Giants’ bad deep ball defense. Both his TDs came on deep passes.
According to Next Gen Stats, Bateman now has 4 TD receptions on deep targets this season, tied for 2nd-most in the NFL, fewer than only Terry McLaurin (5).
Zay Flowers: Hauled in 6 catches on seven targets for 53 yards, with a long of 15 yards. He led the team with a 29% Target share, so do not panic.
Nelson Agholor: Made the most of his lone target, catching one pass for 26 yards.
Mark Andrews: Reliable as ever, catching 2 of 2 targets for 24 yards and one touchdown, with a 13-yard long. Isaiah Likely: Finished with two receptions on two targets for 17 yards, including an 11-yard long. The tight ends split snaps 50/50, with each playing 66% of the snaps. But Andrews dominated the routes at 76% route participation.
Rookie Devontez Walker had one catch for 21 yards and one touchdown on one target. Maybe this will lead to more playing time, but for now, he is still buried on the depth chart. Tylan Wallace: Recorded one catch for 8 yards on one target.
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New York Giants
Hold Malik Nabers | Stock Down Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tim Boyle: Completed 12 of 24 passes for 123 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 61.6.
Tommy DeVito started and was more efficient before leaving with a concussion, completing 10 of 13 passes for 68 yards with a passer rating of 88.0.
Tyrone Tracy: Led the team in carries with 10 attempts for 31 yards (3.1 YPC), including a long of 12 yards. He had nine carries in the first half.
Devin Singletary: Rushed 8 times for 25 yards (3.1 YPC) and scored 1 rushing touchdown, with a long run of 5 yards. Back-breaking vulture TD. Singletary also added three catches on three targets for 16 yards, with a long of 8 yards. Tracy caught 1 pass on four targets for 4 yards.
Tracy still dominated the snaps over Singletary at 68% to 34%, but fantasy managers cannot afford to lose any opportunities for players in the Giants’ offense. Singletary earning goal-line work is not good.
However, if Drew Lock is back at QB, expect Tracy to get fed with dump-offs. The only way Lock was able to move the ball was through quick passes.
Malik Nabers dominated as the top target, hauling in 10 receptions on 14 targets (two red-zone targets, 41% Target share) for 82 yards and one touchdown, including a long of 23 yards. He also drew three penalties on balls thrown his way.
Nabers’ talent is helping him overcome his bad QB play, as are the plus-matchups he has had. Luckily for him, the plus-matchups aren’t done yet.
Wan’Dale Robinson: Caught 4 of 9 targets for 38 yards, with a long reception of 25 yards. He is seeing all the usage we could ask for a No. 2 WR, but it’s not translating with the bad QB play.
Daniel Bellinger: Reliable at tight end, catching all three targets for 35 yards, including a 17-yard gain.
Darius Slayton: Made one catch for 16 yards on one target.
The Giants’ remaining schedule: @ ATL and vs IND. It’s a great schedule for WRs, but the ceiling is certainly capped with the current QB play.
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New York Jets
Stock Down Braelon Allen | Buy Garrett Wilson | Stock Up Aaron Rodgers & Davante Adams | Hold Breece Hall
Aaron Rodgers completed 16 of 30 passes for 289 yards, with three touchdowns and 0 interceptions, earning a passer rating of 120.0. Rodgers hit big plays to Adams and Wilson, keeping the offense efficient and dangerous. Rodgers surprised with mobility, recording six carries for 45 yards (7.5 YPC), including a long run of 18 yards.
Breece Hall led the backfield with nine carries for 30 yards and a touchdown, averaging 3.3 yards per carry with a long of 18 yards. Hall added two catches on two targets for 21 yards, with a long of 14 yards.
Isaiah Davis contributed five carries for 24 yards (4.8 YPC), showing flashes of explosiveness with an 11-yard run. Davis had one catch for 2 yards on his lone target.
Braelon Allen managed two carries for 5 yards, chipping in to spell the lead backs.
Hall led the backfield with a 48% snap share, followed by Davis at 41% and Allen at 17%. This suggests to me that Davis might be the handcuff to Hall. Either way, Allen can be dropped in most formats. Part of his dip in playing time might be related to a back injury he suffered in the second quarter.
He did out-carry Davis in the first half (2 vs 1). Hall saved his fantasy day with the TD because he was sitting at eight touches for 29 yards before the 1-yard plunge. Fantasy managers can feel better about his usage if he practices in full leading up to Week 16.
Davante Adams: Stole the show with a dominant performance, catching 9 of 12 targets for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Adams recorded a 71-yard reception, showcasing his game-breaking ability.
Adams accounted for the bulk of the offensive production with his 198 receiving yards and two touchdowns, including a game-changing 71-yard play. He exploded in the second half, finishing the game with a 43% Target share and 45% air yards share (156 air yards).
According to Next Gen Stats, Adams finished with 198 receiving yards on 9 receptions (12 targets) and 2 TDs against the Jaguars with all 9 receptions coming in the second half. Adams accumulated 191 of his receiving yards on just three routes: Go (3 receptions, 95 yards, 2 TDs on three targets), Crossing Routes (3 receptions, 53 yards on 4 targets), and slant routes (1 reception, 43 yards on one target).
Garrett Wilson: Hauled in 3 of 6 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown, including a 22-yard catch to stretch the defense. He still had over 100 air yards and posted a very respectable 21% Target share.
Jeremy Ruckert: Managed one reception on three targets for 12 yards, contributing as a secondary option. He played 67% of the snaps with Tyler Conklin scratched.
Allen Lazard: Was targeted 4 times but failed to record a reception (72 air yards,
All the weeks of talking up the Jets’ passing game in preparation for the Jaguars matchup paid off. Now we get the Rams in Week 16. Giddy up.
Gang Green will play vs LAR and @ BUF to finish the fantasy football season.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Stock Up Brian Thomas Jr. | Stock Down Tank Bigsby | Stock Up Travis Etienne Jr. | Add Brenton Strange
Mac Jones: Completed 31 of 46 passes for 294 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, earning a passer rating of 81.2. Jones spread the ball effectively, leaning on his top receivers.
Travis Etienne led the ground game with 14 carries for 65 yards (4.6 YPC), including a 10-yard long run. Etienne added value as a pass-catcher, catching 4 of 5 targets for 20 yards, with a long of 8 yards. Etienne also totaled three touches in the red zone and had another 40-yard catch wiped away due to an offensive pass interference call.
Tank Bigsby contributed 11 carries for 42 yards (3.8 YPC, two red-zone carries), showing flashes of power with a 14-yard long. Bigsby was targeted once but failed to secure a reception.
A week after Bigsby dominated the touches, Etienne dominated the snaps 73% to 26% in Week 15 against the Jets. Part of this was the overall pass-heavy game script, as ETN dominated the routes out of the backfield.
Given that this week is the Raiders, you’d think we could “trust” Bigsby in a better game script. But he fumbled against the Jets in the first quarter, raising concern about his job security.
And that doesn’t mean he should be ranked ahead of Etienne. In the first half, Etienne had 10 carries for 51 yards. I know that he’s been a bust for fantasy football purposes, but he hasn’t been that poor as a rusher. During the year, he ranked 15th in rushing success rate (43%).
Mac Jones surprised with four carries for 29 yards (7.3 YPC), including a key 13-yard scramble.
Brian Thomas Jr. dominated as the go-to target, catching 10 of 14 targets (three red-zone targets) for 105 yards and two touchdowns, including a 41-yard explosive play. The rookie commanded a 29% air yards share, 33% Target share, and 86 air yards.
He is proving his worth as a “QB-proof” asset in recent weeks.
In the last four games, BTJ has averaged over 20 PPR points, a 30% Target share, a 40% air yards share, and 87-plus receiving yards per game. BTJ WR1 szn.
Brenton Strange was reliable in short yardage, hauling in 11 of 12 targets for 73 yards, with a long of 9 yards (28% Target share and 31% target rate per route run). Strange remained heavily involved with Evan Engram placed on IR. The second-year tight end played 82% of the snaps in the full-time role.
Parker Washington: Made big plays when needed, recording three catches on six targets for 54 yards, highlighted by a 29-yard catch. He had nearly 100 air yards.
Devin Duvernay: Efficient with three catches on four targets for 42 yards, including a long reception of 28 yards.
Josh Reynolds: He had one target but was held without a catch.
Brian Thomas Jr. led the way offensively, scoring two touchdowns and recording over 100 yards. Travis Etienne contributed on the ground and through the air, maintaining his dual-threat role.
Despite Mac Jones‘ two interceptions, his 294 passing yards highlighted the Jaguars’ ability to move the ball effectively.
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Washington Commanders
Add Jeremy McNichols & Ben Sinnott | Stock Up Terry McLaurin & Brian Robinson Jr.
Jayden Daniels completed 25 of 31 passes for 226 yards, two touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, achieving a stellar passer rating of 118.5. Daniels delivered a composed and accurate performance, leading multiple scoring drives. The rookie QB displayed his dual-threat ability with 11 carries for 66 yards (6.0 YPC), including a 24-yard run.
However, the matchup coming up versus the Eagles is going to be rough. No QB has hit their closing line passing yards prop versus the Eagles since their bye week. Daniels passed for just 191 yards when these teams last played. Take the LESS THAN on Daniels’ 223.5 passing yards projection on Prizepicks for Week 16. The projections have him under 200 passing yards.
Brian Robinson: Served as the workhorse back, carrying the ball 21 times for 65 yards (3.1 YPC), with a long run of 20 yards. He played one of his highest snap shares of the season at 74%. Robinson also contributed in the passing game, catching three passes for 22 yards on three targets, with a long of 9 yards.
The Commanders RB1 was unable to find the end zone, despite four red-zone attempts.
He is going to need the additional receiving usage in a tough matchup next week versus the Eagles.
Jeremy McNichols: Contributed two carries for 4 yards (2.0 YPC). Chris Rodriguez: Added one carry for 2 yards (2.0 YPC). McNichols was the RB2, seeing 28% of the snaps.
Terry McLaurin: Led the team with 10 targets (32% Target share), hauling in 7 receptions for 73 yards and two red-zone touchdowns, including a long reception of 25 yards. McLaurin was the primary red zone target and key chain-mover. He owned a 68% air yards share (179 air yards). Guy could have had two more TDs.
Olamide Zaccheaus: Reliable on his opportunities, catching 3 of 4 targets for 36 yards, with a long gain of 14 yards. Zaccheaus scored, but it was called back on a penalty. He operated as the Commanders’ WR3. He has had a red zone target two games in a row.
Dyami Brown: Recorded three receptions on five targets for 30 yards, highlighted by a 16-yard catch. He ran the second-most routes among WRs, as expected, with Noah Brown placed on IR earlier last week. Brown also had another long gain of 23 yards wiped away by a holding penalty.
Jamison Crowder: Caught all 3 of his targets for 27 yards, including a 12-yard gain.
Zach Ertz: Made his presence felt with two receptions on two targets for 25 yards, with a long catch of 19 yards. Ertz got knocked out of the game early.
Ben Sinnott: Added one reception for 7 yards on his lone target.
John Bates: Caught his only target for 6 yards. The two backup TEs each played 54% of the snaps. However, Sinnott is the one to target off waivers, given he absorbed the majority of routes run (47%).
Jeremy McNichols: Finished with one reception for 0 yards on two targets. Luke McCaffrey: Had one reception for 0 yards on his only target.
The remaining playoff schedule features the Eagles and Falcons after Week 14.
PHI-WAS is a rematch from a Thursday night game back in Week 11. Here’s what happened via that week’s fantasy forecast:
“Brian Robinson Jr. led the ground game with 16 carries for 63 yards and one touchdown, averaging 3.9 yards per carry with a long of 18 yards-two red-zone rushing attempts, with one converted into a touchdown.
Daniels added seven rushes for 18 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry with a long of 7 yards. He hasn’t been as effective as a rusher since the rib injury.
Austin Ekeler had two carries for 7 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per rush with a long of 6 yards.
Jeremy McNichols contributed three carries for 5 yards, averaging 1.7 yards per carry with a long of 6 yards.
Austin Ekeler was the top receiver, catching 8 of 9 targets for 89 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per reception with a long of 34 yards and 102 yards after the catch. Ekeler ran a route on 43% of dropbacks and earned a team-high 28% Target share. Brian Robinson Jr. added one reception on one target for 9 yards.
In his return from injury, Robinson reclaimed his RB1 role, leading the team with a 53% snap share to Ekeler’s 52%.
The playoff schedule features the Saints, Eagles, and Falcons fresh off a Week 14 bye week.
It’s the fifth-best schedule for RBs for the rest of the season. Buy B-Rob.
Zach Ertz hauled in 6 of 7 targets (21% Target share) for 47 yards and one touchdown at the end of the game, averaging 7.8 yards per catch with a long of 16 yards and 17 yards after the catch. Ertz ran a route on 80% of dropbacks. Two red-zone targets resulted in one catch and a touchdown.
John Bates secured 2 of 3 targets for 17 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per catch with a long of 9 yards.
Terry McLaurin had one reception on two targets for 10 yards-an outlier performance. Buy low.”
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New Orleans Saints
Stock Down Alvin Kamara | Add Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Juwan Johnson | Add Kendre Miller
Jake Haener: Struggled with accuracy, completing 4 of 10 passes for 49 yards and one interception, finishing with a 16.2 passer rating.
Spencer Rattler came in for a struggling Haener, completing 10 of 21 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown, and 0 interceptions, posting a passer rating of 84.4.
Cedrick Wilson: Delivered a perfect 1-for-1 pass for 21 yards and one touchdown, recording a 158.3 passer rating.
Kendre Miller: Led the backfield with nine carries (two in the red zone) for 46 yards (5.1 YPC), including a long run of 17 yards. Miller also had one target but failed to record a reception.
Alvin Kamara: Managed five carries for 12 yards (2.4 YPC) with a long of 6 yards.
Kamara was key in the passing game, hauling in 4 of 5 targets for 58 yards and one beautiful touchdown, including a long catch of 29 yards. However, he left with an injury that limited him to just a 45% snap share. Should AK41 miss, we would expect Miller to take on a very large workload.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling registered one carry for 4 yards (4.0 YPC). And despite only two receptions on seven targets, he totaled 64 yards, including a 39-yard big play from Rattler. MVS was the Saints’ snap leader and Target share leader (24%). He also had just shy of 100 air yards.
Foster Moreau: Caught all 4 of his targets (two in the red-zone targets) for 39 yards and one touchdown, with a long gain of 19 yards. However, Moreau did not play the most TE snaps for the Saints. That was still Juwan Johnson, who ran a route on 75% of the dropbacks.
Dante Pettis: Added two receptions for 24 yards on five targets, including a 12-yard catch. Juwan Johnson: Contributed two catches for 12 yards on three targets (one red-zone target), with a long of 9 yards. All three of his targets (including a fourth in the failed two-point conversion) came with Rattler at quarterback.
Kevin Austin: Caught one pass for 8 yards on three targets operating as the Saints WR2. Cedrick Wilson: Targeted once but did not register a reception.
MVS and Johnson are the only dart-throw pieces you can even entertain adding this week. But with Derek Carr on the shelf, it’s hardly a confident bet.
The remaining schedule is Packers and Raiders to round out the season.
Next week on the road in Lambeau is going to be tough for this entire offense.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Stock Down Mike Gesicki | Buy Tee Higgins | Stock Up Chase Brown | Hold Khalil Herbert
In Week 15, the Cincinnati Bengals defeated their opponent with a solid offensive performance. Quarterback Joe Burrow completed 26 of 37 passes for 271 yards, throwing three touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 95.7.
According to Next Gen Stats, Sunday marked Joe Burrow‘s sixth straight game with three-plus passing touchdowns. Only Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Peyton Manning have recorded longer streaks in NFL history.
The Bengals’ rushing attack was led by Chase Brown, who carried the ball 25 times for 97 yards and a touchdown, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Brown played 93% of the snaps and totaled 10 touches in the red zone. Chase Brown is on a six-game streak of 90+ yards from scrimmage.
Khalil Herbert had one carry for 4 yards, while Burrow added a small contribution on the ground with no significant rushing yards.
In the receiving game, Ja’Marr Chase was the clear top target, receiving 11 passes (32% Target share) on nine receptions for 94 yards, although he did not score a touchdown. His Target share was impressive at 30%, with Tee Higgins coming in second with eight targets, catching 5 for 88 yards and a touchdown, good for a 24% Target share, 98 air yards, and 41% air yards share.Higgins and Chase each saw two red-zone targets apiece.
Tight end Mike Gesicki also contributed with three catches for 37 yards, but Chase Brown, who was primarily a rusher, caught all 3 of his targets for 16 yards and a touchdown. Gesicki only played 32% of the snaps and ran a route on 47% of the dropbacks.
Backup tight end Cam Grandy saw two targets, catching both for 12 yards (both red-zone targets).
The Bengals’ passing attack also involved Tanner Hudson (1 catch for 9 yards), Drew Sample (1 catch for 8 yards), and Andre Iosivas (1 catch for 5 yards), while defensive lineman Sam Hubbard caught a short touchdown pass for 2 yards.
Sample played the most tight end snaps at 68%. The playoff schedule between the Browns next and the Broncos in Week 17 isn’t great. The 6-8 Bengals also have a 6% chance of making the postseason…so it’s all but over for them. But don’t tell them that.
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Tennessee Titans
Drop Will Levis | Stock Down Calvin Ridley | Hold Tony Pollard | Add Tyjae Spears
In Week 15, the Tennessee Titans struggled to put together a consistent offensive performance. Tony Pollard led the rushing attack, carrying the ball 17 times for 45 yards and one touchdown, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry with a long of 15 yards.
Calvin Ridley added 19 yards on a single carry, showcasing a 19.0-yard average, though he did not score.
Mason Rudolph had 14 yards on two carries (7.0 YPC), while Tyjae Spears contributed 5 yards on four carries, scoring one red-zone touchdown with a long of 6 yards. Will Levis, the quarterback, had two rushing attempts but finished with no yardage.
Spears commanded seven targets (19%), catching six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown, including a long of 43 yards.
He also led the backfield with a 56% snap share to Pollard’s 44%. Pollard, however, still dominated the red zone carries four versus two. The Titans starter also out-carried Spears 9-4 in the first half.
A lot of Spears’ usage came as a receiver, aside from the goal-line TD in the first half. Just be careful about putting too much trust in him, even in a plus-matchup versus the Colts. Pollard fumbled versus the Bengals, but it didn’t seem to affect his playing status. He does have a lingering ankle injury though, so monitor his status.
In the passing game, Rudolph completed 21 of 26 passes for 209 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 109.8.
Will Levis completed 8 of 12 passes for 89 yards, with no touchdowns but three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 49.0. He was benched.
Mason Rudolph came in for Will Levis at the beginning of the 3rd quarter against the Bengals after Levis had turned the ball over 3 times within seven offensive plays (Next Gen Stats).
Chig Okonkwo was another major target, hauling in 8 receptions on 10 targets for 59 yards. He led the team with a 27% Target share. The Titans TE was hyper-targeted seeing a target on 48% of his routes run. When you include penalties, Okonkwo totaled a whopping 13 targets in Week 15.
Eleven of the last 12 tight ends the Bengals have faced this season have gone OVER their receptions prop.
Ridley caught 3 of 5 targets for 41 yards, while Tyler Boyd caught 2 of 3 targets for 39 yards. Ridley led with a 35% air yards share (72 air yards). The air yards have been there for Ridley, but the production has not been. At least he has good matchups coming up and potentially a more accurate QB under center in Rudolph.
Josh Whyle also contributed, securing five receptions for 37 yards and a red-zone touchdown.
Mason Kinsey and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine each made small contributions in the passing game, with Kinsey catching one pass for 11 yards and Westbrook-Ikhine adding two receptions for 9 yards (one red-zone target).
Bryce Oliver caught one pass for 8 yards, and Nick Vannett rounded out the receiving effort with one catch for 7 yards.
The rest of the schedule: @ IND and @ JAC. The No. 1 schedule for fantasy QBs.
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New England Patriots
Hold Hunter Henry | Sell Rhamondre Stevenson | Add Drake Maye
In Week 15, the New England Patriots were led by Rhamondre Stevenson in the rushing game, as he carried the ball 13 times for 69 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, though he did not score. Stevenson contributed with one reception for 16 yards. Antonio Gibson contributed 33 yards on seven carries (4.7 YPC), and Drake Maye added 14 yards on four carries, including a touchdown, with a long run of 6 yards.
Stevenson played 65% of the snaps to Gibson’s 31%.
Like I said in Week 13, I think I’ve reached the point with Stevenson that I only care about chasing his potential ceiling. In closer games, he should remain productive. That could become problematic against Buffalo, where the Patriots find themselves as double-digit road underdogs.
In the passing game, Maye completed 19 of 23 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 99.6. He played an efficient game, though his lone interception was a blemish.
The rookie quarterback is the only glimmering hope on this Patriots’ anemic offense. I think he’s a low-end streamer against Buffalo, who has given up a ton of points over the last two games. We also know that Maye can add easy fantasy points with his legs.
The receiving game was highlighted by Kendrick Bourne, who caught all three of his targets for 44 yards, including a long reception of 37 yards. Bourne had a 14% Target share with 39 air yards (22% air yards share).
Austin Hooper caught all 3 of his targets for 38 yards, while Antonio Gibson added 31 yards on two catches. Hooper finished third on the team in routes run as the Patriots continue to lean into a heavy 12-personnel offense.
Hunter Henry caught all 4 of his targets for 25 yards (18% Target share). Henry was involved in 80% of the snaps, reflecting his significant role in the passing game. Three of his four targets came in the first half.
Kayshon Boutte had two catches for 19 yards, and DB Marcus Jones added one reception for 18 yards. Boutte led the team in air yards with 98 (54% air yards share) and a 23% Target share. Boutte was targeted 5 times. Boutte was on the field for 88% of the snaps, playing a key role in the offense.
DeMario Douglas caught three passes for 11 yards, scoring the Patriots’ lone receiving touchdown in the red zone.
Bourne participated in 53% of the snaps, contributing to the offense in a limited but consistent manner. Douglas played 61% of the snaps.
Ja’Lynn Polk saw limited action, recording no catches on one target.
They will play the at the Bills in Week 16 and then be home versus the Chargers in Week 17.
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Arizona Cardinals
Hold Kyler Murray & James Conner & Trey McBride | Hold Marvin Harrison Jr.
In Week 15, the Arizona Cardinals were led by James Conner in both the rushing and receiving games. Conner carried the ball 16 times for 110 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per carry, and scored two touchdowns, with his longest rush being 53 yards.
Conner struggled with a negative four air yard total on five targets, gaining 28 receiving yards, but without a touchdown. The Cardinals RB1 totaled six touches inside the red zone.
Trey Benson added 22 yards on five carries, while DeeJay Dallas rushed for 15 yards on four carries. Benson, however, left the game with an ankle injury.
If the Benson injury is serious, Conner is looking at an enormous workload in the best possible matchup against Carolina in Week 16.
Quarterback Kyler Murray contributed 11 rushing yards on five attempts, while Greg Dortch had 6 yards on one carry. His longest carry came in the red zone, and he fumbled into the end zone. The Cardinals recovered it for a touchdown.
Backup quarterback Clayton Tune added a carry but lost 1 yard.
In the passing game, Kyler Murray completed 23 of 30 passes for 224 yards, finishing with a passer rating of 97.1 but no touchdowns. Clayton Tune completed both of his pass attempts for 8 yards but also did not record a touchdown.
In receiving, Trey McBride was Murray’s primary target, finishing with nine catches on 10 targets for 87 yards. McBride, the team’s top tight end, played a significant role, seeing 57 air yards (35% of the team’s total), with a Target share of 32%. But as usual, he also failed to score.
The broadcast made sure to let the audience know about McBride’s TD drought, and the team did its best to get him a quick, easy TD on a shovel pass at the goal line. McBridge got stuffed. According to Next Gen Stats, McBride has the most receptions (86) and most receiving yards (963) in a season without a touchdown.
At least the Panthers are next, which is the defense that has allowed the most TDs to TEs this season. Now or never.
Greg Dortch had three receptions for 60 yards, including a long reception of 39 yards.
Marvin Harrison caught 2 of 6 targets for 32 yards, while James Conner had five catches for 28 yards.
Harrison Jr. had 88 air yards (55% of the team’s air yards), contributing 32 receiving yards on six targets, with two catches but no touchdowns despite multiple end-zone targets.
According to Next Gen Stats, Harrison Jr. faced Christian Gonzalez on 21 of his 29 routes (72.4%) on Sunday, with Gonzalez aligning in press on 13 of 21 of those matchups (61.9%).
Harrison Jr. was targeted 5 times against Gonzalez as the nearest defender, hauling in only one reception for 23 yards. Harrison Jr. caught his only other target against cornerback Alex Austin for 9 yards.
Michael Wilson had two receptions for 9 yards, and Tip Reiman added two catches for 8 yards.
Elijah Higgins and Zay Jones each contributed one catch for 5 and 3 yards, respectively.
ROS schedule: @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF. This offense should be productive in the last two weeks of the fantasy football season.
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Buffalo Bills
Stock Up Dalton Kincaid & James Cook | Add Keon Coleman & Ray Davis | Stock Down Amari Cooper
In Week 15, the Buffalo Bills had an impressive offensive showing, with contributions across the rushing and passing games.
James Cook led the rushing attack with 105 yards on 14 carries, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and scoring two touchdowns, including a long rush of 41 yards. The Bills RB1 totaled five red-zone carries to Davis’ two red-zone touches.
Josh Allen added 68 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries, averaging 6.2 yards per carry, with a long rush of 21 yards. Ray Davis rushed for 15 yards on seven carries (2.1 YPC), while Ty Johnson had 9 yards on two carries, averaging 4.5 yards per rush.
In the passing game, Josh Allen completed 23 of 34 passes for 362 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 122.4. Allen’s performance was highlighted by an efficient passing game, with key contributions from his receivers.
Ty Johnson led the receiving corps with five catches on five targets for 114 yards, though he did not score a touchdown. Johnson had 74 air yards (22% air yard share), with a strong Target share of 16%.
Cook played 41% of the snaps, and Johnson played 30%.
Get access to the Bills backfield where you can. The Patriots/Jets are in the fantasy playoffs.
Rookie Keon Coleman contributed with 64 yards on one reception, and Dalton Kincaid caught four passes for 53 yards. Kincaid led the team in receiving air yards with 84 yards (24% air yard share) and a Target share of 22%, catching four passes for 53 yards. He was the most targeted player in the game, with eight targets. He caught a 10-yard TD that was called back on an offensive holding call.
He was the biggest winner among the Bills’ skill position players, being targeted on 38% of his routes run. Even with a limited role, I’d expect his routes/snaps to increase another week back from his injury.
I think his Prizepicks line is way too low at 36.5 yards for Week 16. Take the MORE THAN. Projections have him well OVER 40 receiving yards.
Coleman contributed 79 air yards (23% air yard share) with a Target share of 6%, catching one pass for 64 yards.
Dawson Knox had two catches for 42 yards, while Khalil Shakir added six receptions for 39 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 10 yards.
Shakir accounted for 11% of the air yards (36 yards), with a Target share of 22%.
Knox had 26 air yards (8% air yards share), with a 9% Target share, catching two passes for 42 yards.
Knox played 73% of the snaps and led the team in routes run. Coleman played 63% and led the Bills WRs in snaps. Shakir played 59% of snaps, Hollins played 50%, and Kincaid played 49%.
James Cook caught one pass for 28 yards, Ray Davis caught two passes for 14 yards and one touchdown, Mack Hollins had one reception for 7 yards, and Curtis Samuel added one catch for 1 yard. Cook had 17 air yards (5% air yard share) with a 3% Target share.
Hollins had 22 air yards (6% air yard share) with a 9% Target share.
Shakir, Samuel, Hollins, and Knox all had one red-zone target.
Amari Cooper has zero targets on 13 routes run. He played 46% of the snaps but ran fewer routes than Coleman. Buffalo split reps as much as possible between all the WRs/TEs/RBs, with Cooper finishing as the odd man out.
This is as classic as Amari Cooper bust games come. Unfortunately, it makes him nearly impossible to trust in Week 16 even in a plus-matchup. In Week 15, Buffalo posted a +4% pass rate over expectation.
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Detroit Lions
Stock Up Jahmyr Gibbs | Hold Sam LaPorta | Drop Jared Goff
In Week 15, the Detroit Lions had an explosive offensive performance, led by a record-setting game from Jared Goff.
Jahmyr Gibbs led the rushing attack on the ground with 31 yards on eight carries, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, including a touchdown.
Jared Goff contributed 13 yards on two carries, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, while David Montgomery had just 4 yards on five carries, struggling to find any significant yardage.
Jahmyr Gibbs had three rushing attempts in the red zone, one rushing touchdown, and two targets with one reception and one touchdown. Gibbs had 75% of the snaps, and David Montgomery played 30% of the snaps. Monty got game-scripted out with just one carry in the entire second half.
The Lions RB duo has played 10 games this season when they BOTH have scored.
Jared Goff had a remarkable passing performance, completing 38 of 59 passes for 494 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 118.9. His performance was the key to the Lions’ success on offense.
The receiving game was led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who caught 14 passes on 18 targets for 193 yards and one touchdown, including a long reception of 66 yards. ARSB led the air yards with 139 yards (34% air yards share) and a Target share of 34%.
Sam LaPorta was also heavily involved, catching seven passes for 111 yards. LaPorta accounted for 28% of the air yards (115 yards) with 19% Target share on 10 targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs added five catches for 83 yards and one touchdown.
Jameson Williams contributed three catches for 37 yards and one touchdown on five targets. Williams had 66 air yards (16%) and a 9% Target share, catching three passes for 37 yards and one touchdown.
David Montgomery had four receptions for 31 yards on four targets, and Tim Patrick added four catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. David Montgomery has over 15.5 receiving yards in seven straight games and in 11 of his 14 games played this season (80%).
We got news that Montgomery will miss the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Absolutely brutal turnout for the Lions’ Sonic and Knuckles combination. But this is going to send Jahmyr Gibbs‘ projection ROS to top-3 overall, if not higher, given the strength of the Lions’ remaining opponents.
Patrick had 83 air yards (20%) and 15% Target share, with four catches for 30 yards and one touchdown on eight targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tim Patrick, and Jameson Williams were targeted in the red zone, with Tim Patrick scoring one touchdown on one of his two red-zone targets. St. Brown was targeted six times in the red zone.
OL Dan Skipper caught one pass for 9 yards and a touchdown, while Allen Robinson was targeted once but did not record any receptions.
The Lions’ injuries on defense are another big takeaway from this game. The list is continuing to get longer. Carlton Davis and Alim McNeill are expected to miss the rest of the season. What does this mean for fantasy football? The Lions offense is going to have to score A LOT of points.
Detroit plays @ CHI and @ SF to finish the fantasy football season. Great schedule for fantasy RBs.
The Lions passed their first scheduling quirk by playing outdoors for the first time all season a few months ago in Green Bay.
Still, it could get dicey in Chicago in Week 16 if it’s cold and/or bad weather. At least the Bears’ run defense has struggled, putting Detroit in the driver’s seat even in the fantasy football playoffs.
Chicago hardly slowed down the Lions’ rushing attack on Thanksgiving, even if neither RB scored.
Although the box score doesn’t tell the whole story, specifically in the red zone. According to Next Gen Stats, the Lions offense struggled on the ground in the red zone, generating -0.1 yards before contact per carry, being contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 57.1% of their seven rushes, and fumbling the ball late in the second quarter. When not in the red zone, they averaged 2.5 yards before contact per carry and were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 30.4% of carries.
Note that the Lions’ passing game ROS doesn’t have the same soft schedule. For the rest of the season, their quarterbacks have the 32nd-ranked schedule. I think a sneaky “landmine” move might be to drop Goff ahead of this outdoor matchup versus the Bears.
Therefore, I am going LESS THAN on Goff’s 258.5 passing yards projection on Prizepicks this week. He is 50% at this number in all his road games this season. He failed to hit over 222 yards the last time he played the Bears at home. In his lone game outdoors this season, he passed for under 150 yards. The projections have him well below 240 passing yards.
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Indianapolis Colts
Drop Anthony Richardson | Hold Jonathan Taylor | Stock Down Alec Pierce
In Week 15, the Indianapolis Colts were led by Jonathan Taylor in the running game. Taylor rushed 22 times for 107 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, although he did not find the end zone. Well, he did but he decided to drop the ball before he scored, and it resulted in a touchback. WOOF.
Anthony Richardson contributed 46 yards and a touchdown on seven carries, averaging 6.6 yards per rush, with a long run of 23 yards. Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson each added 3 yards on one carry, while Adonai Mitchell lost 10 yards on his sole rush attempt.
At quarterback, Anthony Richardson completed 17 of 38 passes for 172 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 36.3. The passing game struggled as Richardson failed to find the end zone. Mitchell threw a pick-six on a trick play to throw the ball BACK to Richardson.
Richardson is virtually impossible to trust as a passer, but he did enough as a rusher for fantasy purposes. Start him at your own risk. Chances are you can find a better option.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the leading receiver, hauling in 6 catches on nine targets (one red-zone target) for 58 yards, though he did not score a touchdown. He also lost a fumble—67 air yards (21% of the team’s total).
Kylen Granson was productive as well, catching three passes for 47 yards, while Josh Downs caught three passes for 32 yards despite eight targets. Downs was the standout in the passing game, contributing 70 air yards (22% of the team’s total).
Anthony Gould had 1 reception for 23 yards, and Trey Sermon added two catches for 9 yards. Taylor contributed one reception for 4 yards, while Alec Pierce, AD Mitchell, Will Mallory, and Richardson himself were less involved, with no catches or minimal production. Taylor also struggled in the passing game, gaining -2 air yards on two targets and catching one pass for 4 yards.
Mitchell and Pierce each recorded 66 and 65 air yards, respectively, but neither was able to make a significant impact. Both had four targets, but neither caught a pass. Curious that Pierce/Mitchell split snaps as the WR3, although Pierce did get hurt at the end of the first half. Case in point, all of Mitchell’s targets came in the second half, where Pierce saw his four in the first half.
Mitchell and Pierce played 49% and 46% of the snaps, respectively. Both guys had chances to score as well.
The remaining schedule is vs. TEN, and @ NYG. Tough sledding until the Giants.
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Denver Broncos
Stock Up Courtland Sutton | Stock Up Marvin Mims & Troy Franklin | Stock Down Javonte Williams & Jaleel McLaughlin|
In Week 15, the Denver Broncos offense struggled to move the ball effectively but had key contributions in the passing game.
On the ground, Bo Nix led the rushing attack with 23 yards on eight carries, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. I like Nix’s chances of running a lot against the Chargers in Week 16. He rushed for 60-plus yards against them earlier this season, and the Chargers have allowed a ton of yardage to opposing QBs. Entering Week 15, the Chargers had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards over expected (+68), 6th-most yards per carry (9.1), and tied for the 2nd-most first downs (16) against scrambles this season (Next Gen Stats). Baker Mayfield rushed for 25 yards on two carries in Week 16 versus the Bolts.
Take the MORE THAN 17.5 rushing yards for Nix on Prizepicks this week for Thursday Night Football.
Jaleel McLaughlin had 21 yards on seven carries (3.0 YPC), and Javonte Williams rushed for 15 yards on six attempts (2.5 YPC). McLaughlin had the lone red zone attempt while catching three passes for 13 yards. In the first half, McLaughlin led the way with five carries to Williams’ three.
McLaughlin started, but he only played 24% of the snaps – less than half of what Williams played.
Audric Estime added 13 yards on five carries (2.6 YPC), while Marvin Mims had no rushing yards on one carry. Estime played 21% of the snaps.
More classic Broncos backfield usage. Unpredictable. Once we feel good about one guy, Sean Payton mixes it up. Good grief. Nobody can be trusted in what has become a three-headed disaster.
In the passing game, Nix completed 20 of 33 passes for 130 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 61.4. Despite the turnovers, Nix was able to find the end zone with three touchdown passes.
The Broncos’ receiving game saw Courtland Sutton leading the team with three receptions on nine targets for 32 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long of 20 yards.
Sutton led the team in receiving with an impressive 133 air yards, accounting for 77% of the total air yards. Sutton finished the game with 28% of the team’s Target share.
Mims also contributed, catching four passes for 20 yards on four targets (36% target rate per route run). He continues to be hyper-targeted.
The routes still aren’t there for Mims, but he has had five-plus touches in four of his last five games.
Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins each caught two passes for 20 yards, with Trautman adding one touchdown and Adkins catching a long 15-yard pass for a touchdown (both on red-zone targets).
McLaughlin caught three passes for 13 yards, while Troy Franklin added two receptions for 9 yards. Franklin had another red-zone target and deep ball, but alas, no production.
Franklin was targeted 5 times (29% target rate per route run). He contributed to the Broncos’ air yards with 26, making up 15% of the total. His Target share was 16%, though he did not find the end zone.
Williams (three targets) and Lucas Krull each caught two passes, totaling 8 yards each. Estime caught one pass for 5 yards, and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey and Devaughn Vele were targeted once each but did not record any catches. Vele and Javonte Williams played 60% and 54% of the snaps, respectively.
Troy Franklin and Adam Trautman (WR and TE) played 46 and 43% of the snaps, respectively.
Franklin played more snaps than in Week 13 and is so close to hauling in a deep pass from his old college QB. A matchup against a leaky Chargers defense might be exactly what the former Oregon Duck product needs to finally pop. Back-to-back games where he has posted strong per-route-target numbers.
The ROS schedule goes @ LAC (Thursday Night Football) @ CIN, and vs. KC.
Note that the Broncos could be without star CB Pat Surtain after he got hurt at the end of the win against the Colts (however he was listed as a full participant in Monday’s injury report).
Thursday night will be a rematch for the Broncos-Chargers. Here’s what shook out the last time these teams played, as reviewed in the Week 7 forecast:
“The Denver Broncos relied on an efficient performance from quarterback Bo Nix, who completed 19 of 33 passes for 216 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished the game with a passer rating of 84.9 and added 61 rushing yards on six carries, including a long run of 21 yards.
In the run game, Javonte Williams led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Audric Estime contributed 13 yards on two carries, including an 11-yard run, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 8 yards on three carries. Williams also lost a fumble.
Snaps: Javonte Williams: 67%, Jaleel McLaughlin: 25%, Audric Estime: 4%
The Broncos’ passing attack was spread out across several key contributors. Devaughn Vele led the way with 78 receiving yards on four catches out of six targets, including a 37-yard reception and commanding an 18% Target share. However, his first catch didn’t come until the fourth quarter.
Courtland Sutton caught four of his six targets (19% Target share) for 53 yards and a touchdown, including a long catch of 20 yards. Sutton had a 46-yard chunk gain removed due to an offensive holding penalty. Sutton had one red zone target, converting it into a touchdown with his only catch.
Wide receiver Troy Franklin had an explosive impact, catching two passes for 31 yards, including a 29-yard reception and one touchdown. Franklin had one red zone target and converted it into a touchdown.
It is important to note the routes here because Josh Reynolds was inactive. Instead of the Lil’Jordan Humphrey show, the Broncos relied on the rookie WRs (never Marvin Mims).
Vele ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks, and Franklin ran a route on 61%. Franklin has continued to trend up the last few weeks. Stash him.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Broncos have a No.1-most favorable schedule for WRs. Vele (27%) and Franklin (26%) have both been targeted at a hyper rate this season.
McLaughlin and Williams also got involved in the passing game, with McLaughlin catching two passes for 17 yards and Williams recording three receptions for 13 yards on six targets. Lucas Krull, who saw four targets, finished with 11 yards on two catches.
Marvin Mims goose-egged on three targets. His one catch came off the board because of a penalty. Mims had 107 air yards and a team-high 32% air yard share. Will I bet Mims will score an anytime TD on Thursday night? Probably.”
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stock Down Cade Otton | Stock Up Rachaad White & Bucky Irving & Mike Evans | Add Jalen McMillan
In Week 15, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put together an impressive offensive performance, led by a balanced rushing attack and a strong game from quarterback Baker Mayfield.
On the ground, Bucky Irving had a standout game with 117 yards on 15 carries, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, and a long rush of 54 yards.
Rachaad White contributed 64 yards on 15 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per carry, while Baker Mayfield added 25 yards on two carries, including a long run of 21 yards. Sean Tucker had 17 yards on seven carries.
White played 37 snaps (51%), Irving played 32 snaps (44%), and Tucker played eight snaps (11%).
Both White and Irving were used in the red zone, seeing multiple carries and targets, but only White scored through the air. They split carries in the first half. White also got banged up but returned quickly to game action. He also lost a fumble.
In the passing game, Baker Mayfield was highly efficient, completing 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 135.3. Mayfield was instrumental in moving the ball downfield, and his four touchdowns helped fuel the Buccaneers’ offensive success.
Mike Evans was the top receiving target, catching nine passes on 11 targets (42% Target share) for 159 yards and two touchdowns, including a long of 57 yards. Evans racked up 136 air yards, which accounted for 56% of the team’s total.
According to Next Gen Stats, after throwing just two deep touchdowns (20+ air yards) in Weeks 1-14, Baker Mayfield threw 2 deep touchdowns in the Buccaneers win over the Chargers on Sunday, both to Mike Evans.
LAC is a bad team for defending the deep ball,, which was apparent on Sunday.
Evans needs to average 84 yards per game for the rest of the season to hit 1K. So far, since returning from injury, Big Mike has 68-plus in four straight games.
Jalen McMillan also had a strong showing, catching five passes for 75 yards and one touchdown, with a long of 26 yards. He had 76 air yards, contributing 31% of the team’s total. The rookie posted a 23% Target share and six targets—back-to-back strong weeks for the rookie. The heavy involvement in the first half suggests his role will carry over the rest of the season.
Cade Otton contributed with two catches for 24 yards on three targets, while White caught both of his targets for 17 yards and one touchdown. Irving, primarily a rusher, had two receptions but lost 4 yards on those catches.
Otton’s targets have dipped to 15% since Evans’ return. Otton has now been under 4.5 catches in more than 70% of his games played with Mike Evans this season. Sterling Shepard had one reception for 16 yards on his one target, and Ryan Miller added one reception for 1 yard.
The two teams remaining for Tampa Bay are the Cowboys and Panthers.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Hold/Add J.K. Dobbins | Buy Ladd McConkey | Hold Quentin Johnston | Add Kimani Vidal & Stone Smartt
In Week 15, the Los Angeles Chargers had a balanced offensive attack led by Justin Herbert in the passing game.
On the ground, Gus Edwards led the team with 23 yards on eight carries, averaging 2.9 yards per carry, while Kimani Vidal added 9 yards on three carries, averaging 3.0 yards per rush. Neither running back found the end zone.
Vidal played the most snaps at 67% compared to Edwards’ 27%. The rookie RB played more in a negative game script.
Vidal seems to be starting to emerge in this backfield, but it won’t likely be more than a 1A/1B situation. We still can’t be certain of a large red zone role for the rookie alongside the Gus Bus. Edwards also saw his five carries in the first half (5 versus 2).
The Gus Bus has been stuck on neutral since his return to the lineup. He has fewer than 37.5 rushing yards in five straight games and has 50-plus yards in just two games played this season. Take the LESS THAN 37.5 rushing yards prop this week on Prizepicks.
Also, something to keep in mind: I am hesitant to drop J.K. Dobbins because he could return in Week 17 against the Patriots (great matchup). They said on the SNF broadcast two weeks ago that he intends to return in Week 17. If Dobbins was dropped, he would be a great stash for the playoffs.
In the passing game, Justin Herbert completed 21 of 33 passes for 195 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 87.3.
Backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke completed his only pass attempt for 4 yards but did not throw a touchdown or interception, posting a passer rating of 83.3.
The receiving corps was led by Ladd McConkey, who caught five passes on seven targets for 58 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 20 yards. McConkey had 56 air yards (21%) with a 22% Target share.
Stone Smartt caught five passes for 50 yards (one red-zone target), while Quentin Johnston also had a solid game, grabbing five catches for 45 yards and one red-zone touchdown (two red-zone targets), with a long of 13 yards. QJ was the standout receiver, with 109 air yards (41% of the team’s total) and 31% of the Target share. He finished with 10 targets.
Smartt was also a key contributor, contributing 56 air yards (21% of the total). He earned five receptions from 6 targets (19% Target share), accumulating 50 yards, but did not score. Smartt played 67% of the snaps and was targeted on 27% of his routes. He also picked two penalties on deep pass targets, so a total of eight targets in his starting debut. He fumbled, though.
Hebert loves to target his tight end at a high rate, regardless of who the tight end is. I like taking the MORE THAN on Smartt’s 36.5 receiving yards prop on Prizepicks this week. Over in back-to-back games.
D.J. Chark contributed two receptions for 16 yards, and Vidal had two catches for 13 yards.
Josh Palmer caught two passes for 10 yards, and Tucker Fisk had one reception for 7 yards. Palmer was involved in 75% of the snaps, commanding three targets.
The remaining schedule vs. DEN (Thursday Night Football) and @ NE.
Thursday night will be a rematch for the Broncos-Chargers. Here’s what shook out the last time these teams played, as reviewed in the Week 7 forecast:
“J.K. Dobbins led the way on the ground, rushing 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards. He also was involved in the passing game catching both of his targets for six yards.
Dobbins rushed four times for 12 yards and scored one rushing touchdown. He had one red zone target but no receiving touchdown.
Fun stat courtesy of Next Gen Stats: J.K. Dobbins had most of his success on the ground come on runs to the left side of the formation against the Broncos, accumulating 72 of his 96 rushing yards, including three runs of 10+ yards. Dobbins ran to the left side of the formation (17 carries) more than twice as often as runs to the right (8 carries). On the season, Dobbins has gained 350 of his 439 yards on runs to the left through his first five games with the Chargers.
The run-heavy approach was complemented by contributions from Derius Davis, who had 14 yards on two carries, and Kimani Vidal, who added 11 yards on four carries. Vidal had one red zone rushing attempt, losing one yard without any targets.
Herbert contributed with four rushes of his own, though he only managed two yards. Hassan Haskins chipped in five yards on two carries.
Snaps: J.K. Dobbins: 73%, Kimani Vidal: 24%
In the passing game, Simi Fehoko was Herbert’s most productive receiver, catching two of four targets for 44 yards, including a 30-yard reception. Fehoko ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks.
Ladd McConkey was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 43 yards, accounting for a 26% Target share and 97 air yards. Fell just short of a TD with two targets inside the 10-yard line.
McConkey ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks despite suffering a head injury during the game. He does look to be okay, though, after returning to action. Assuming he is healthy, McConkey remains a top-trade target.
He has a 27% Target share on the season. Top 12 on the season. A great matchup is on deck versus Arizona, who just roasted from the slot.
Vidal was also involved in the passing game, catching two passes for 40 yards on two targets, including a long reception of 38 yards that went for a TD on a wheel route.
Josh Palmer also made an impact, grabbing two of his three targets for 38 yards, including a 24-yard reception. Palmer ran a route on 55% of the dropbacks.
Tight end Will Dissly caught four of his five targets for 26 yards, providing a reliable option in the short passing game. Hayden Hurst got hurt during the game. Dissly ran a route on 52.63% of the dropbacks.
Wide receiver Quentin Johnston was targeted four times but only managed 22 receiving yards on three catches. Johnston did miss time with an injury but returned. He ran a route on 45% of the dropbacks.”
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Stock Up Pat Freiermuth | Sell Najee Harris
In Week 15, the Pittsburgh Steelers struggled to establish a consistent offensive rhythm, especially in the running game.
Najee Harris led the team in rushing with 14 yards on six carries, averaging just 2.3 yards per carry. His rushing attempts yielded minimal yardage, contributing 33% of the snaps.
Russell Wilson added 13 yards on four attempts, while Jaylen Warren contributed 12 yards on four carries. Harris contributed with one reception for 7 yards, and Jaylen Warren added one reception for 3 yards. Warren played 53% of the snaps. Both Steelers RBs saw one red zone carry.
Warren has out-snapped Harris in back-to-back weeks.
Cordarrelle Patterson had 9 yards on two carries, and Justin Fields had 8 yards on one carry.
As alluded to last week, the Steelers RBs were heading in the wrong direction. The rest of the schedule is brutal for these Steelers RBs. The Steelers play vs @ BAL and vs KC. 32nd-ranked schedule for fantasy RBs.
To make matters worse for Harris, he also lost a fumble – although the final box score credits his QB with the lost fumble.
At quarterback, Russell Wilson completed 14 of 22 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 94.5. He managed the game efficiently but had limited passing yardage and touchdowns.
The Steelers’ receiving corps was led by Calvin Austin, who caught five passes on five targets for 65 yards, though he did not score. Austin had a strong performance with 52 air yards (35% of air yards share) and 24% of the Target share.
Tight end Pat Freiermuth was the only player to score, catching 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards and one touchdown. Freiermuth had 50 air yards (34% of air yards share), with six targets, three receptions for 22 yards, and one touchdown on one of his two red-zone targets. The Steelers tight end was targeted on 32% of his routes run with a team-high 29% Target share. He had another catch reversed on a review as well.
Three straight strong games for the Muth with Russ at QB. No doubt his role has been boosted without George Pickens available. Last three games, Pat Freiermuth has a team-high 20% Target share, with 12 catches for 138 yards and 3 TDs.
Ben Skowronek had one reception for 17 yards, while Mike Williams caught one pass for 15 yards on two targets. Williams contributed just 16 air yards (11% of air yards share).
Williams only played 35% of the snaps, finishing third in WR routes run. He didn’t see much of an increased role with George Pickens out of the lineup in a difficult matchup.
Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, and Patterson also had minimal involvement in the passing game, with Jefferson and Miller failing to register any receptions and Patterson losing 1 yard on his only catch. Miller and Jefferson each had one red-zone target.
Jefferson contributed 43 air yards (29% of air yards share), catching one pass for no yardage.
Calvin Austin, Van Jefferson, and Pat Freiermuth were on the field for 81%, 81%, and 70% of the snaps, respectively.
T.J. Watt also got banged up toward the end of the Steelers-Eagles contest.
Also, keep in mind that the Steelers barely had the ball in the second half. In fact, they ran 11 offensive plays. So, although the raw numbers are disappointing, it’s not realistic about what we should usually see from this offense. Expect a bounce back versus the Ravens.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Stock Up Jalen Hurts & DeVonta Smith & A.J. Brown | Add Kenneth Gainwell
In Week 15, the Philadelphia Eagles were led by a strong offensive performance, particularly from Jalen Hurts and the receiving corps.
Saquon Barkley was the leading rusher, carrying the ball 19 times for 65 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, though he did not find the end zone. Barkley played 61% of the snaps to Gainwell’s 39% snap share.
Jalen Hurts added 45 yards and one touchdown on 15 carries, including a long rush of 23 yards. Kenneth Gainwell contributed 20 yards on seven carries, while DeVonta Smith had a minimal 1-yard rush on one attempt in the red zone.
Kenneth Gainwell had three catches for 40 yards, with a long of 16 yards and two red-zone targets. Gainwell had a 10% Target share. Saquon Barkley added two receptions for 9 yards. Barkley and Gainwell each had three red zone carries, but neither scored a rushing TD. Gainwell was getting in more work in the contest because Barkley didn’t play much after taking a bit of a hit. He should be fine, but make sure Gainwell is rostered just in case.
In the passing game, Jalen Hurts completed 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 125.3. Hurts’ efficient performance led to a successful day for the Eagles’ offense.
The receiving game was led by A.J. Brown, who caught 8 of 11 targets for 110 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long reception of 21 yards. Brown had an outstanding game with 92 air yards, 35% of the Target share. Brown had 44% of the team’s air yards.
DeVonta Smith also had a standout performance, catching 11 passes on 12 targets for 109 yards and one red-zone touchdown, with a long reception of 22 yards. Smith followed with 68 air yards, 39% of the Target share. Smith contributed 33% of the air yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Smith recorded a career-high 11 receptions for 107 yards and a touchdown across 12 targets in Week 15 against the Steelers.
Smith was especially productive when aligned in the slot, where he gained 79 yards on five receptions and averaged 5.5 yards of separation (2nd-most in a game this season). Smith’s 35.3% target rate was his 2nd-highest in a game this season.
Tight end Grant Calcaterra caught 1 pass for 22 yards, while Jahan Dotson and Jonny Wilson were not involved in the passing game, failing to record any receptions. Dotson saw minimal action, with one target but no receptions or yards.
From Weeks 16-17, Philly plays the Commanders and Cowboys.
PHI-WAS is a rematch from a Thursday night game back in Week 11. Here’s what happened via that week’s fantasy forecast:
“Saquon Barkley was a workhorse with 26 carries for 146 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with a long rush of 39 yards: three red-zone rushing attempts but no touchdowns.
Kenneth Gainwell added four carries for 43 yards, averaging 10.8 yards per carry, with a long of 14 yards-one red zone rushing attempt without a score.
Hurts contributed 10 carries for 39 yards and one touchdown, averaging 3.9 yards per carry, with a long rush of 9 yards.
A.J. Brown led the team with five receptions on eight targets (32% Target share and 45% air yard share) for 65 yards, averaging 13 yards per catch, with a long of 25 yards and 21 yards after the catch.
Dallas Goedert caught all 5 of his targets for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per reception, with a long of 32 yards and 31 yards after the catch—20% Target share.
Saquon Barkley was impactful in the passing game as well, hauling in 2 of 3 targets for 52 yards, averaging 26 yards per catch, with a long of 43 yards and 48 yards after the catch.
DeVonta Smith caught 4 of 6 targets for 29 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per catch, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch-24% Target share.”
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Green Bay Packers
Stock Up Jayden Reed | Buy Christian Watson | Add Romeo Doubs | Sell Jordan Love
Jordan Love completed 20 of 27 passes for 229 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a passer rating of 123.8.
Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack, carrying 26 times for 94 yards (3.6 AVG), scoring one touchdown with a long of 19 yards. Jacobs also had four receptions for 42 yards on four targets. 75% snap share for Jacobs to go with five red-zone carries.
Jacobs will be a top-5 fantasy RB option next week versus the Saints.
Jayden Reed rushed 3 times for 27 yards (9.0 AVG) but did not score, with a long of 13 yards.
Emmanuel Wilson had 9 yards on three carries (3.0 AVG). Christopher Brooks added 6 yards on one carry (6.0 AVG). Brooks out-snapped Wilson 25% to 9%. Brooks out-snapped Wilson for the seventh straight game.
Love also rushed once for 4 yards (4.0 AVG).
Christian Watson was the top target, with six receptions on three targets for 56 yards. Watson led the team with 53% air yards (94 yards) and a Target share of 23%. He also picked up another DPI call.
In the last seven games, Watson leads the Packers in targets (37), air yards (687), and receiving yards (463) – even after a doughnut in Week 12. What’s curious is he has zero TDs over this span. That won’t last. We just saw the Saints defense get ripped by the speedy Terry McLaurin, and I think Watson could find similar success.
Romeo Doubs caught 3 of 5 targets for 40 yards and two touchdowns. Doubs had 40% air yards (71 yards), a 19% Target share, and two red-zone targets. Doubs led the Packers in routes run in his first game back from his concussion. He also picked up another DPI penalty that led to a Packers FG.
The Doubs role is the one that has traditionally been seen the most from a red-zone target perspective in the Packers’ offense.
Jayden Reed had five catches on six targets (23% Target share) for 34 yards. Reed had just 1% air yards but a strong 23% Target share with five receptions. He also had a red zone target but did not score. Good to see him more involved than last week, even if it was not an eruption game. Totaled eight touches overall (two in the red zone).
Tucker Kraft had two receptions on two targets for 34 yards. Kraft contributed 15% of air yards (26 yards) with an 8% Target share. Post bye-week, Seattle has allowed receiving prop overs to the last four TEs they have faced.
Dontayvion Wicks caught two passes for 14 yards on two targets.
Watson, Romeo Doubs, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft played key roles, logging significant snap percentages (78% for Watson, 75% for Doubs, and 89% for Kraft).
Chris Brooks added one reception for 9 yards.
The Packers also lost linebacker Quay Walker to an injury in this game.
The remaining schedule: vs. NO and @ MIN.
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Seattle Seahawks
Sell Kenneth Walker | Stock Up Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Stock Down DK Metcalf
Geno Smith completed 15 of 19 passes for 149 yards and 0 touchdowns, with one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 77.4. Sam Howell completed 5 of 14 passes for 24 yards, 0 touchdowns, and one interception, with a passer rating of 14.6.
Smith left the game with an injury and was replaced by Howell.
Zach Charbonnet led the ground game with 54 yards on eight carries, averaging 6.8 yards per carry, and scored one touchdown with a long of 24 yards. Zach Charbonnet played 80% of the snaps. He added one catch for 12 yards on four targets.
Kenny McIntosh had 9 yards on three carries (3.0 YPC). He played 15% of the snaps.
George Holani contributed 10 yards on three carries (3.3 YPC).
Smith ran 1 time for 5 yards (5.0 YPC). Howell also added 2 yards on one carry (2.0 YPC).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the top receiver with 12 targets (39% Target share), catching 10 passes for 83 yards and no touchdowns, with a long reception of 25 yards. Smith-Njigba had 59 air yards (29% air yards share), with a Target share of 39% and 83 receiving yards. JSN also had two red-zone targets but did not score.
According to Next Gen Stats, Smith-Njigba caught 10 passes on 12 targets for 83 yards in Week 15, catching all 6 of his targets from slot alignments for 59 yards.
Smith-Njigba has recorded 826 receiving yards from the slot this season, 263 more than the next closest player. Across all alignments, Smith-Njigba has recorded the 2nd-most receptions over expected (+7.5) and 2nd-highest catch rate (80.8%) among wide receivers since Week 9 (min. 30 targets over that span).
D.K. Metcalf caught three passes on three targets for 28 yards, while Tyler Lockett caught one pass for 22 yards. Metcalf accounted for 13% of the air yards (27 air yards) with a Target share of 10%, catching 28 yards. Lockett contributed 22 air yards, accounting for 11% of the air yards share.
Metcalf’s snaps were increased, but his targets tanked. He is not the focal point of the Seahawks’ passing game.
Noah Fant had three receptions for 15 yards. Fant had 26 air yards (15%) and a 23% Target share, with three receptions on seven targets. The Seahawks TE had one red zone target and played 59% of the snaps. He was also targeted on 27% of his routes run. Fant has 2.5-plus catches in seven straight games.
Jake Bobo caught one pass for 8 yards.
AJ Barner contributed one reception for 5 yards.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Seahawks are tied for the bottom-5-ranked schedule for quarterbacks: vs MIN and @ CHI. It’s going to be tough for this offense to function at a high level, with sack-machine Howell potentially under center.
Seattle also lost their starting center, Olu Oluwatimi, in Week 15’s loss to the Packers.
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Chicago Bears
Stock Down Caleb Williams | Hold D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Stock Down Rome Odunze | Stock Up Keenan Allen
The Chicago Bears were led offensively by quarterback Caleb Williams, who completed 18 of 31 passes for 191 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions, earning a passer rating of 86.9.
In the rushing department, D’Andre Swift led the team with 19 carries for 79 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry but no touchdowns, with a long of 17 yards. The Bears starting RB played 69% of the snaps and commanded three red-zone carries. He didn’t score because his 1-yard TD was called back on a penalty.
D.J. Moore added three carries for 24 yards, averaging 8.0 yards per carry, while Travis Homer had three carries for 7 yards (2.3 yards per carry). Williams contributed four carries for 3 yards (0.8 yards per carry).
The Bears’ receiving attack was led by Keenan Allen, who was targeted 13 times, recording six catches for 82 yards and one touchdown (one of the three red-zone targets), with a long reception of 26 yards. Allen dominated the Bears’ offense in terms of air yards, registering 142 air yards, with a 42% Target share and a solid aDOT of 10.92.
Moore followed with eight targets (26% Target share), catching eight passes for 46 yards, but failed to score. Moore posted 46 air yards, with a low aDOT of 0.5, earning just 2% of the team’s total air yards as he was regulated to mostly bubble screen targets near or behind the line of scrimmage.
Rome Odunze had seven targets (23% Target share), catching two passes for 39 yards, while tight end Cole Kmet added a catch for 14 yards. The rookie contributed 69 air yards with an aDOT of 9.85, showcasing a solid 32% air yards percentage. He was targeted four times in the red zone but didn’t score. Odunze also had a drop in the red zone.
Swift had one reception for 10 yards, and Tyler Scott caught one pass for 5 yards in garbage time. No other Bears player beyond the top 3 WRs had more than one target.
Every week, it seems like it’s going to be a different Bears WR that pops off. Over the last five games, Allen has led the team in targets (49, 29%) and TDs (4). Moore leads the team in catches (36) and receiving yards (360) Odunze/Allen are neck-and-neck in terms of air yards.
From Weeks 16-17, the Bears play DET and SEA.
The Bears offense “should” produce against the Lions’ banged-up defense at home in Week 16.
Here’s how the targets shook out the first time these teams played from the post-week Week 14 forecast:
“The Chicago Bears failed to pull off the upset win despite a gritty second-half performance from quarterback Caleb Williams, who threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns without turning the ball over. Although Williams completed just over half of his passes (20 of 39), his three touchdown throws and mobility helped propel the Bears’ offense.
D’Andre Swift led the backfield with 11 carries for 39 yards (3.5 yards per carry) but couldn’t find the end zone on his lone red-zone carry. He also contributed in the passing game, catching two of his three targets for 35 yards (17.5 yards per catch). Swift played a commanding 69% of the snaps, especially after Roschon Johnson left the game early due to a concussion. Johnson only played 3% of the offensive snaps before exiting. Swift was the workhorse back, handling the majority of the snaps after Johnson’s early exit.
Travis Homer stepped in as the RB2 following Johnson’s injury.
D.J. Moore led the receiving corps with a dominant performance, catching eight of his 16 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown. He commanded a massive 41% Target share and accounted for 40% of the team’s air yards (169 air yards). Moore had two red-zone targets, catching one but failing to score.
It was nice to see Moore not only heavily targeted but also used more downfield in conjunction with the screen game.
Keenan Allen was also a major factor, catching five of his eight targets for 73 yards and scoring two touchdowns, including one on his lone red-zone target. Allen earned a 21% Target share and accounted for over 100 air yards.
Rookie Rome Odunze added two catches for 25 yards on six targets, including one red-zone target that he failed to convert into a touchdown. Odunze earned a respectable 15% Target share and accounted for over 100 air yards in a complementary role.”
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Minnesota Vikings
Buy Justin Jefferson | Stock Up Aaron Jones & Jordan Addison & T.J. Hockenson | Add Cam Akers
Aaron Jones led the Vikings’ rushing attack with 18 carries for 86 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scoring one touchdown with a long of 14 yards.
Jones also contributed as a receiving back, catching two passes for 20 yards with a long of 17 yards. His air yard percentage was -1%.
Cam Akers contributed 10 carries for 24 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry and scoring a touchdown with a long of 11 yards.
Jones had a 61% snap share as a running back, while Akers played 27% of snaps. Jones also led the backfield with three red-zone rushes to Akers’ one.
Akers got most of his work toward the end of the game, and he took advantage of a bad run defense. Ty Chandler had one carry for 4 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, with a long of 4 yards.
Sam Darnold started at quarterback and completed 24 of 40 attempts for 231 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a rating of 74.1.
Justin Jefferson led all receivers with 13 targets (two red-zone targets), catching seven passes for 73 yards and one touchdown. He registered a long reception of 21 yards. Jefferson had an air yard percentage of 51% and a Target share of 35%. Jefferson led the team with 153 air yards.
According to Next Gen Stats, Jaylon Johnson lined up against Justin Jefferson on 16 of 40 routes and was targeted only once for an 8-yard reception.
Across 23 routes against all other Bears defenders, Jefferson finished with six receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets.
Jordan Addison followed closely with nine targets, catching seven passes for 63 yards, but he was unable to find the end zone. He had an air yard percentage of 27% and a Target share of 24%, with a long reception of 16 yards. Addison tallied 80 air yards.
T.J. Hockenson saw seven targets (one in the red zone), catching five passes for 52 yards. His air yard percentage was 18%, with a Target share of 19% and a long of 16 yards. Hockenson had 55 air yards. Great matchup next week versus the Seahawks.
Jalen Nailor caught one pass for 5 yards, and Trent Sherfield added one reception for 6 yards.
Hockenson was on the field for 65% of the snaps, and Jalen Nailor played 53% of the snaps as a wide receiver. The Vikings TE was back to a full-time role, running 33 routes (third-most on the team).
Brandon Powell added a reception for 12 yards on one target, with an air yard percentage of 4%.
Minnesota is at @ SEA and vs GB. This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend. Hold your Vikings tight.
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Atlanta Falcons
Stock Down Kyle Pitts & Kirk Cousins & Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson & Tyler Allgeier | Add Falcons DST
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons had a balanced offensive performance with key contributions from their rushing and passing game. Bijan Robinson led the way on the ground with 22 carries for 125 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, but did not find the end zone.
Robinson, although primarily known for his rushing, also chipped in with a 10-yard reception.
Tyler Allgeier added 43 yards on 12 attempts, averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Robinson played 44 snaps, 76%, while Allgeier played 15 snaps, 26%.
Kirk Cousins, the quarterback, also contributed on the ground with three carries for 0 yards but was effective in the air with a 112-yard performance on 11 completions from 17 attempts. Cousins threw for one touchdown but also tossed an interception, earning a passer rating of 78.6.
The offense had zero interest in throwing the ball. Their pass rate over expectations was -21%. Against the Giants, expect another run-heavy approach as the Dirty Birds look to hide Cousins.
The receiving game was headlined by Drake London, who registered three receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown on three targets (19% Target share). His touchdown came from a 30-yard reception as the first score in the game. London led the team with a solid 36% air yards share and a 13-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Kyle Pitts contributed four catches for 28 yards, while Ray-Ray McCloud caught one pass for 14 yards. McCloud followed with a Target share of 19% and posted solid air yardage, while Kyle Pitts had a respectable Target share of 25% that led the Falcons and added 19 yards in the air.
Pitts finished third in snaps among the Falcons TEs. However, he ran the second-most routes and was hyper-targeted at a 27% clip.
Charlie Woerner had two catches for 7 yards on three targets, and Darnell Mooney failed to record any yards on his sole target. Mooney led the Falcons in routes run, but goose egged. It was a tougher matchup against the Raiders defense that has limited big downfield plays, so he should rebound.
I think Mooney is good for a deep ball against the Giants’ poor deep ball defense, but his ceiling is otherwise capped without high projected volume.
The remaining Falcons schedule includes vs. NYG and @ WAS. Add the Falcons DST.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Stock Down Brock Bowers & Jakobi Meyers | Add Alexander Mattison
The Las Vegas Raiders’ offense in Week 15 was led by quarterback Desmond Ridder, who attempted 39 passes, completing 23 for 208 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 60.6. Ridder was also active in the run game, rushing for 28 yards on five attempts, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Alexander Mattison contributed 21 yards on seven carries (3.0 YPC), while Sincere McCormick added 8 yards on seven carries, and Ameer Abdullah rushed for 8 yards on three attempts. McCormick left the game early with an ankle injury.
In the passing game, Jakobi Meyers was the leading target, receiving nine targets (26% Target share), catching five passes for 59 yards. He posted an air yards percentage of 37%, and his aDOT was 12 yards, reflecting his deep involvement in the offense. All of his production came in the second half of the game.
Brock Bowers, the tight end, had just six targets (18% Target share), catching 3 of them for 35 yards, while Tre Tucker added two catches for 18 yards on three targets.
Fingers crossed that Aidan O’Connell can return to boost the value of Meyers/Bowers for Weeks 16+17.
Ameer Abdullah was also heavily involved in the passing game, catching all 7 of his targets for 58 yards and one red-zone touchdown (21% Target share), with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 2 yards.
Michael Mayer and Sincere McCormick added contributions, catching 1 pass each.
Terrace Marshall Jr. and Alexander Mattison had minimal involvement, with Marshall catching one pass for 7 yards and Mattison recording two receptions for just 3 yards (four targets).
The Raiders’ offensive snap distribution included Jakobi Meyers (90% snap share), Bowers (94%), and Tucker (96%) leading the wideouts and tight ends. The running backs, including Abdullah (46%) and Mattison (33%), played crucial roles in the rushing and passing game.
Should McCormick miss time with his ankle injury, Mattison would likely take on the early-down rushing role, with Abdullah sprinkling in as a receiver.
I would tread lightly in trusting this backfield. Mattison fumbled on his first carry and didn’t come back until McCormick was injured.
Overall, the Raiders had a balanced offensive performance. Still, the passing game struggled with a low completion percentage and only one touchdown pass, though the team managed to gain 208 total passing yards and 125 rushing yards.
The Raiders have a good playoff schedule for RBs. The remaining Las Vegas schedule is vs JAC and @ NO.
It’s the fifth-best schedule for fantasy RBs. You could do worse than adding a Vegas RB like Mattison. Just cross your fingers that Aidan O’Connell returns sooner rather than later.
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