Every year leagues are lost because players bust, get injured or underperform expectations. Sometimes these issues are unavoidable, but sometimes there are red flags we ignore when it come to potential fantasy baseball busts. Here are the 10 fantasy baseball busts you should not draft based on average draft position data (ADP) from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC).
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Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters to Avoid
Avoid these fantasy baseball busts in 2025 drafts.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL) | NFBC ADP: 24.89
Ronald Acuna Jr. was the best fantasy baseball player in 2023 but he only played in 49 games in 2024 after injuring his knee. The upside is immense and a lot of people will draft him because of his upside.
However, Acuna doesn’t have a clear return timetable and the latest reports are that he likely won’t be ready for Opening Day. There is a good chance he just doesn’t steal a ton or struggles coming off of a second major knee injury. The risk is just too much for such a high fantasy ADP.
Oneil Cruz (SS, OF – PIT) | NFBC ADP: 42.09
With power and speed, there isn’t much not to love in a guy like Oneil Cruz. He made this list because of the players he is going above who do not have the risk profile Cruz does.
Cruz is going ahead of a stalwart in Corey Seager and an up-and-coming stud in CJ Abrams. While Cruz has that power/speed combo, he also struggles with in-zone contact and swing-and-miss. This makes him inherently risky, especially over upside players with safer floors.
Michael Harris (OF – ATL) | NFBC ADP: 39.98
Michael Harris has been a fantasy darling since breaking out in 2022, but he has struggled with staying on the field since then and he has a bad plate approach.
This bad approach often leads him to hitting ninth in the lineup when he is struggling. While he is projected to start the season atop the order in Atlanta, I just don’t trust him to stay there or on the field for a full season.
Yainer Diaz (C, 1B, DH – HOU) | NFBC ADP: 58.14
Yainer Diaz is a really good young, offensive catcher. He had a great year in 2023 where he hit for power and also average, but didn’t get a ton of plate appearances. In 2024, he racked up the plate appearances and kept the average gains, but the power wasn’t as massive.
The problem with Diaz is that with Christian Walker on the team he won’t get the extra at-bats he did last year to earn those extra plate appearances. You need the power to return for him to return value. I am not confident in that.
Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS) | NFBC ADP: 88.42
Luis Robert is a massive power/speed threat when healthy and on the field, but that has become a rare feat for him. He has zero seasons with 600 plate appearances and just one season with 450 plate appearances.
The other concerning part is that his underlying contact skills have regressed. He has put up back-to-back seasons with a sub-82% contact rate, which is down seven percentage points from his 2022 season.
Triston Casas (1B – BOS) | NFBC ADP: 114.29
Triston Casas was great when he was on the field last year, hitting 13 home runs in just 243 plate appearances, but he missed most of the season with an injury.
Casas is a former top prospect with a lot of power, but his issue is contact. He made just 76.7% zone contact and had a 31.7% strikeout rate last season. He does walk but the scary contact numbers could lead to a crating in average, which is backed up by a .219 expected batting average (xBA).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC) | NFBC ADP: 132.94
Pete Crow-Armstrong is a popular player coming off of a season where he hit 10 home runs and stole 27 bases in 410 plate appearances. While he only hit .237, he hit .265 in the second half, which is where seven of his home runs came from.
However, the underlying contact skills are terrible. Crow-Armstrong is a good defender, so he could continue to play even if he struggles, but offensively, he could be a massive average drain.
Alex Bregman (3B – FA) | NFBC ADP: 143.88
This has nothing to do with the fact Alex Bregman hasn’t signed yet because he will land somewhere. The main issue is it won’t be in Houston with that fantastic lineup and the Crawford Boxes, which were perfect for his pull-happy approach.
Unless he lands in a similarly good park, he is going to take a big hit in power and counting categories in 2025.
Ceddanne Rafaela (2B, SS, OF – BOS) | NFBC ADP: 173.24
Ceddanne Rafaela has loud tools with good power and a lot of speed. However, he struggles with his approach and contact skills. His 49.5% O-Swing was the worst of any qualified hitter in baseball and his 79.7% z-contact was eighth-worst in baseball.
The Red Sox loves his defense, so he likely will keep a roll, but he could crush your average and hit at the bottom of the order unless he fixes these issues.
Francisco Alvarez (C – NYM) | NFBC ADP: 154.77
Francisco Alvarez is a former top prospect who has flashed power at the position. The problem is his hype outweighs the production.
The contact skills aren’t great and while he hits the ball hard, a lot of it is on the ground, which limits the homer upside. There are just too many issues for him to be going this high.
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