Let’s look at four late-round fantasy football draft targets as you prepare for the 2025 NFL season.
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Not every handcuff running back is created equal, and not every non-workhorse running back is a handcuff. Some non-starters are pass-catching specialists or change-of-pace options. Additionally, some backfields are ambiguous and unsettled, and it would be inaccurate or disingenuous to label members of those backfields as handcuffs. Thus, no one from Jacksonville’s backfield is featured. Also, while I love casting late-round darts in best ball in the direction of Brashard Smith and Elijah Mitchell, I wouldn’t label them as handcuffs since I view Kansas City’s backfield as unclaimed and unsettled. Instead, the following running backs have a clearly defined starter ahead of them and can accurately be described as handcuffs by even the strictest definition.
Isaac Guerendo (RB – SF): 143.3 Underdog Best Ball ADP/147.3 DraftKings Best Ball ADP | RB44/RB44
Isaac Guerendo put on a show at the NFL Draft Combine in 2024.
Isaac Guerendo was drafted in round 4 pick 129 in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.90 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 20 out of 1903 RB from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/awjXiOBIw9 pic.twitter.com/WEbGOEtSZ8
– RAS.football (@MathBomb) April 27, 2024
He became the latest freak show speedster in Kyle Shanahan’s offense last season and made the most of his opportunities.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs last year, Guerendo was seventh in yards per carry (5.00), sixth in explosive run rate (7.1%), tied for fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.23) and fourth in yards before contact per attempt (2.94).
Guerendo wasn’t San Francisco’s only backup running back to make the most of their opportunities last season, as Jordan Mason also thrived. According to Sumer Sports, the 49ers were 11th in expected points added (EPA) per rush last season. Additionally, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), San Francisco was the third-best run-blocking team last year.
Guerendo isn’t a slouch as a receiver, either. He has 0.17 targets per route run, a 3.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 1.63 yards per route run (Y/RR), 9.5 yards per target and 10.13 yards per reception on 15 receptions last season.
Christian McCaffrey‘s standing atop San Francisco’s depth chart is unchallenged when he’s healthy. However, he played only four games last year and just three games in 2020 and seven in 2021 before back-to-back healthy campaigns in 2022 and 2023. Guerendo has massive upside if CMC misses games this year, and his home-run ability could allow him to hit best ball lineups occasionally this season on limited touches as the backup.
Ray Davis (RB – BUF): 147.3 Underdog Best Ball ADP/157.1 DraftKings Best Ball ADP | RB46/RB48
First, I’ll address the elephant in the room. I didn’t include Ray Davis in this piece with the expectation of James Cook holding out into the regular season. Cook is in the final year of his rookie contract and wants a sizable contract extension. Still, he doesn’t have leverage in contract negotiations. Cook might hold out as long as he can before the regular season, which could theoretically result in a slow ramp-up early in the regular season. So, those are fringe benefits and considerations for drafting Davis.
More importantly, the second-year running back is in a highly productive running game with a mauling offensive line. The Bills were second in EPA per rush last year, admittedly aided by Josh Allen‘s rushing ability. They were also graded as the 13th-best run-blocking team by PFF last season.
Understandably, the Bills loved to lean on their productive running game last year. Per the pace app at RotoViz, Buffalo was tied for the fifth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (49%) last season.
The Bills have a consensus team win total of 11.5, juiced -145 to the over. If they meet the betting expectations, they will have many neutral and positive game scripts this year.
The environment should be outstanding for Buffalo’s running backs in 2025. Davis’s 3.98 yards per carry as a rookie weren’t anything to write home about. Still, he had other encouraging metrics. Among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts last year, Davis was 28th in explosive run rate (4.2%), tied for third in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25), 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.57) and 19th in success rate (50.0%) on zone concept runs. Davis also garnered 0.17 targets per route run, a 1.2-yard aDOT, 1.85 Y/RR, 11.12 yards per target and 11.12 yards per reception.
Davis would likely cede most passing-down and two-minute drill work to Ty Johnson, even if he filled in for Cook. Regardless, Davis has the receiving chops to add value through the air when he’s on the field, and Allen happily targeted his running backs last season.
Finally, Davis was outstanding in the two games he had over a 50% snap share (Week 6 and Week 18). Davis was the RB14 in half-point per reception (half PPR) points (16.7) in Week 6 and the RB14 in half PPR points (13.5) in Week 18. He had the following stats in those two games.
- 35 rush attempts
- 161 rushing yards (80.5 per game)
- 4.60 yards per carry
- 1.37 yards before contact per attempt
- 3.23 yards after contact per attempt
- 0.20 missed tackles forced per attempt
- 45.7 Stuff%
- 57.1% success rate in zone concepts
- 46.2% success rate in man/gap concepts
- 44.4% route participation rate
- 0.18 targets per route run
- Five targets (2.5 per game)
- Five receptions (2.5 per game)
- 6.8-yard aDOT
- 56 receiving yards (28 per game)
- 2.00 Y/RR
- 11.2 yards per target
- 11.2 yards per reception
- One receiving touchdown
- 15.1 half PPR points per game
- 14.0 expected half PPR points per game
Davis had a well-rounded statistical profile in his two extended opportunities last season.
Blake Corum (RB – LAR): 198.6 Underdog Best Ball ADP/201.2 DraftKings Best Ball ADP | RB61/RB62
Jarquez Hunter (RB – LAR): 198.7 Underdog Best Ball ADP/217.2 DraftKings Best Ball ADP | RB62/RB67
I don’t have a leaning in Blake Corum’s or Jarquez Hunter’s direction for which player is the handcuff to Kyren Williams. Nevertheless, I’m unconvinced Williams stays healthy or retains his bell-cow role the entire 2025 season. It’s his final year on his rookie contract, and Williams’ efficiency cratered last year while his fumbles surged.
Sean McVay typically uses a workhorse running back, and Williams is merely the most recent beneficiary of McVay’s preference to lean on one running back. Williams had a position-high 87% snap share last year after pacing the position at 82% in 2023.
Even though Williams doesn’t have impressive measurables, he parlayed his fantasy-friendly role into the RB2 finish in half PPR points per game (19.9) in 2023 and tied for an RB8 half PPR points per game (15.9) finish in 2024.
The Rams had PFF’s sixth-best run-blocking grade last year. They were just 20th in EPA per rush in 2024 but seventh in EPA per rush in 2023. Williams’ fumbles lost and slide in rushing efficiency undoubtedly impacted their EPA per rush in 2024.
Corum or Hunter would significantly outperform their ADP at both best ball platforms if they usurped Williams on the depth chart or if the fourth-year pro were injured. Double-dipping on them at DraftKings is an exciting and low-cost investment, and palatable there since they have 20 roster spots. It’s a bit less appealing at Underdog since they have only 18 roster spots, but doubling up on Corum and Hunter makes sense for Zero RB constructions featuring seven running backs. Conversely, selecting both can work well in top-heavy backfields, namely those without overlapping bye weeks. In other lineup constructions at Underdog, gamers can mix Corum and Hunter into their portfolios equally until a pecking order is more clearly established closer to the regular season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
