When it comes to fantasy football, few topics spark more debate than the most polarizing players-those whose values vary wildly from one expert to another. These are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that divide rankings, dominate draft-day discussions, and often determine whether you’re a contender or pretender. In this article, we asked our collection of Featured Pros to weigh in on one player at each key position with a high standard deviation, meaning analysts are all over the board in how they rank them. Whether it’s a breakout candidate you should be targeting or a risky pick to fade, our experts share who they’re significantly higher or lower on and why. Let’s dive into the most hotly debated Quarterbacks ahead of the 2025 fantasy football season.
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Polarizing Fantasy Football Players: Quarterbacks
Polarizing Players: Quarterbacks
Who is one QB with a high standard deviation you are higher or lower on and why?
Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
“I am higher than other experts on Dak Prescott. Since he came to the league, Dak’s worst finish in a season where he played more than 12 games was QB14. Even in 2022, when he played just 12 games, he still finished as QB18. This year he should be fully healthy and has an improved receiving corps as well, which tells me he’ll likely finish as a QB10 or better, as he has in five of the six seasons he played every game.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
“Dak Prescott’s ECR is sitting at QB15 right now, but his ADP is QB12. I am all aboard the Dak Express this season, but I can’t see pushing him up much beyond where he’s coming off the board in drafts here in June. While the passing game should be humming in Dallas, touchdowns can be elusive. And with Prescott running less than in years’ past, I’m unlikely to leave my 1QB drafts with Dak when I can get Drake Maye later, or take a swing on Matthew Stafford or Geno Smith for free.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“Dak Prescott (QB15 in ECR) will be a top-12 QB in 2025. My QB11, the Cowboys will need Dak and his arm to stay in games this year, simple as that. Despite Dak not running anywhere near like he once did, a healthy Dak Prescott is simply a really good quarterback for fantasy. The last two seasons Prescott has finished for Dallas, he recorded at least 4,440 passing yards and 36 TDs in both seasons (’21 and ’23), and has the likes of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson, to help him along in ’25. Prescott is an awesome QB to have in single and multiple QB setups that can easily outperform his QB2 ranking in the ECR.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
“Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers: Mayfield was excellent in 2024, finishing as the QB3 in total fantasy points. But that season turned up a huge 7.2% TD rate, one that’s bound to regress. We’ll also see how Chris Godwin looks coming off a serious leg injury.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“It’s easy to see why Baker Mayfield is QB6 going into 2025. He followed up his QB10 performance in 2023 with a QB3 finish last year. He has WRs for days. However, it’s just as easy to fade. It took an insane TD rate and an outlier rushing season for Baker to average 21.5PPG. If you’re going to draft a pocket passer, pick the one coming off a low TD-rate season that can be drafted later.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Justin Fields (QB – NYJ)
“I am significantly higher on Justin Fields (6.8 standard deviation) than the consensus rankings (QB14). While the veteran is a below-average starting quarterback in the NFL, he is an underrated fantasy option due to his rushing abilities. The former Ohio State star averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks of last season as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That average would have made him the QB8 on a points-per-game basis in 2024. More importantly, Fields was productive in his last year as the unquestioned starter, ranking as the QB9 on a points-per-game basis in 2023 among quarterbacks with at least nine games played.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“In 2023, Justin Fields averaged nearly 22 points per game from Week 4 onward. In his six starts during the 2024 season, Fields was the QB6 overall and QB7 in points per game (19.1). He was fourth in fantasy points per dropback (0.62). The new Jets RB rushed for at least 27 rushing yards in five of his six starts (surpassing 50 rushing yards three times). The Jets’ new QB1 has similar fantasy upside to the elite QB Tier with his rushing ability. One that new head coach Aaron Glenn is all too familiar with during his tenure in Detroit as the defensive coordinator. Fields faced the Lions five times during his time with the Bears, rushing for 100+ yards in three of those contests. The Jets’ new head coach has already expressed a desire to utilize Fields’ legs, which should be of interest to fantasy football drafters.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Running quarterbacks are a cheat code for fantasy football (duh). When Justin Fields started 15 games for the Bears in 2022, he ranked QB6 in fantasy scoring even though he missed two games and had mediocre passing numbers (2,242 yards, 17 TD passes). He ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns. Fields started the first six games of the season for the Steelers last season and was QB6 in fantasy scoring over that span. He has his shortcomings as a passer, but Fields is going to deliver needle-moving rushing production, and he now has job security with the Jets. ECR has Fields as a high-end QB2, but he’ll be a QB1 this year, barring injury.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
“2025 is setting up to be a really good year for Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars found a gem in 2024 with Brian Thomas Jr., and I think they found another one with rookie WR/CB Travis Hunter. Make no mistake, Hunter is viewed by scouts and NFL execs as having the same level of talent as the cream of last year’s draft class, Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. Ringo thinks the Jaguars’ talented WRs, combined with a shaky defense, is a recipe for a lot of shootouts/fantasy points in Jacksonville. With a consensus ranking at QB 19, Lawrence seems like a bargain for shrewd drafters willing to look past last year’s disappointing numbers.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)
“Matthew Stafford is far from an exciting, young option at QB these days, but he is being undervalued as a late-round option. Stafford will once again have two alpha receivers to target with Davante Adams joining a hopefully healthy Puka Nacua in 2025. They added athleticism at tight end with rookie Terrance Ferguson as well. This is still the same high-octane Sean McVay offense that has allowed Stafford to attempt over 500 passes in the last two years. Although there is obviously no rushing upside whatsoever, Stafford could outproduce QBs like Stroud, Love, Lawrence, and Purdy, who are all being drafted earlier.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
“Jared Goff is a quarterback that I am staying away from this season. He lost two of his offensive linemen and one of the best offensive coordinators in the league this past season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the offense takes a step back through this transitional season. Goff could easily finish outside of the top 15 in FPPG, and I would rather take a swing at someone like Brock Purdy, who has been a top 10 QB in FPPG the last two seasons.”
– Nick Penticoff (Fantasy Football Astronauts)
Drake Maye (QB – NE)
“Drake Maye is being undervalued at his QB17 ADP, despite flashing top-10 fantasy upside in 2024. In 10 full starts, he averaged 18.1 fantasy points per game while throwing to DeMario Douglas behind the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass-blocking line. Now in 2025, he gets Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, and major o-line upgrades, along with a new coaching staff. He quietly ranked second among QBs in scramble yards per game (31.3) and showed poise under pressure with a 60% catchable ball rate (QB13 of 42). With better protection and weapons, Maye’s TD rate and efficiency are set to explode, making him a prime QB1 breakout candidate, which is why I have him as my QB12 Overall.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (Armchair Scouting)
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