Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Start’em
Jordan Love is the QB15 in fantasy points per game with one QB1 weekly finish this season (QB6). Among 40 qualifying passers, Love ranks fourth in yards per attempt and passer rating, tenth in CPOE, and ninth in hero throw rate. Love could easily post QB1 numbers this week. Cincy’s pass defense remains dreadful, allowing the eighth-highest success rate per dropback, the fourth-most passing yards per game, the eighth-most yards per attempt, and the second-most passing touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford has been absolutely ballin’ out. He’s the QB9 in fantasy points per game with at least 25.6 fantasy points in each of the last two games. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford ranks second in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns, seventh in passer rating, and first in hero throw rate. Stafford should smash again this week. Baltimore’s pass defense is in shambles, allowing the third-most passing yards per game, the most passing touchdowns, the third-highest in CPOE, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
Caleb Williams is the QB6 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 outings in his four games (QB9, QB1). Her per-dropback metrics haven’t been nearly as good as his fantasy production. Among 40 qualifying passers, he ranks 18th in yards per attempt, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and he has the sixth-highest off-target rate. Williams and Ben Johnson are still smoothing out the wrinkles in the offense, but Williams has to show more consistency moving forward. He could easily smash again this week. The Commanders’ pass defense hasn’t been great this season, allowing the fifth-most yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the tenth-highest CPOE and passer rating. Williams is a volatile fantasy option that could pay off handsomely this week.
Jones is the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but has been held below 17 fantasy points in each of his last three starts. Since Week 3, he hasn’t had a rushing touchdown and has surpassed 20 rushing yards in a game only once. Jones has passed for multiple touchdowns in only one game this season. Now, that doesn’t mean that he isn’t playing at a high level because he is. The fantasy production just hasn’t been there. Among 40 qualifying passers, Jones ranks third in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, seventh in catchable target rate, and 12th in hero throw rate. Jones has a tall order this week, but he should be up to the task. Arizona has allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-fewest passing touchdowns, but they have also surrendered the fifth-most passing yards per game and rank 17th in CPOE. Jones should at least post solid QB2 numbers.
Bo Nix is the QB19 in fantasy points per game as he’s run hot and cold. He has surpassed 20 fantasy points in two games while being held below 18 fantasy points in the other three contests. Nix has regressed big time from his monster rookie season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 28th in passer rating, 29th in highly accurate throw rate, 32nd in catchable target rate, and he has the seventh-highest off-target rate. With all that said, this matchup lines up as another probable spike week for Nix because the Jets’ pass defense has been horrendous. New York has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the third-highest passer rating, and manufactured the fourth-lowest pressure rate.
Sam Darnold has been ballin’ this season. Last week, Seattle let him chuck it more with the matchup and script. He finished as the QB2 for the week with 341 through the air, 10.0 yards per attempt, and four passing touchdowns. Overall, he is the QB21 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying passers, Darnold ranks first in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, second in highly accurate throw rate, and third in hero throw rate. The matchup this week isn’t nearly as good, but Seattle could be forced to pass more this week with the Jaguars also fielding a strong run defense. Jacksonville has allowed the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest CPOE, but Jacksonville has also given up the sixth-most passing yards per game and the 12th-most passing touchdowns per game. Darnold should have a solid day with the upside to be a QB1 again.
Brock Purdy isn’t practicing to open the week. I expect Mac Jones to make another start for San Francisco this week. Jones has finished as a QB1 in weekly scoring in two of his three starts (QB9, QB10). The Shanny magic has been real as Jones’ per-dropback metrics SCREAM game manager and system quarterback for Jones. Among 40 qualifying passers, he ranks 21st in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, and 17th in CPOE. Those are the good things. Among the same sample of passers, he also has the sixth-lowest aDOT, the lowest deep throw rate, is 27th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate. At the end of the day, all we care about is fantasy points, but Shanny’s smoke and mirrors largely fuel his production. Jones could be a QB1 again this week against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has allowed the 13th-most passing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per attempt, the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the second-highest success rate per dropback.
Sit’em
Michael Penix Jr. has been hit-or-miss this season with two QB1 outings (QB10, QB12) and two games outside the top 30 fantasy quarterbacks for the week (QB32, QB31). Among 40 qualifying passers, Penix Jr. is 14th in yards per attempt, 17th in passing yards per game, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. Penix Jr. looks headed for another down game. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game, the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.
Tua Tagovailoa has one QB1 weekly finish this season (last week, QB9). In his four other starts, he has finished as the QB17 or lower in each game. He has surpassed 260 yards passing only once this season. Among 40 qualifying passers, he ranks 27th in yards per attempt, 15th in highly accurate throw rate and catchable target rate, and he has the eighth-lowest aDOT. Tagovailoa is third in passing touchdowns (tied), though. This isn’t the matchup to look to stream him against. The Chargers have allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the fourth-fewest passing yards per game, and the lowest CPOE.
The wheels are falling off for Geno Smith. He has failed to surpass 13 fantasy points in three of his five games this season. Across his last two games, he hasn’t finished with more than 228 passing yards, and he has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2:5. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Smith ranks 17th in yards per attempt, 26th in highly accurate throw rate, and 37th in catchable target rate. He leads that sample of quarterbacks in interceptions and off-target rate. Smith is a risky QB2 this week, facing a Titans’ secondary that ranks 15th in passer rating and success rate per dropback and 14th in CPOE.
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