Ted Chmyz | Tue, Jun 9th 2026, 7:15am EDT

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Value-Based Drafting (2026)

Last year, I wrote an article about one of fantasy football’s most fundamental strategies: Value-Based Drafting (VBD). I broke down the differences between Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), Value Over Next Available (VONA), and Value Over Last Starter (VOLS). Everything I said in that article still applies for this season, and I recommend reading it first if you are unfamiliar with value-based drafting strategies as a whole.

But, because everything from that previous article is still applicable, I’m not going to repeat myself today. Instead, I’m going to take the lessons of VBD and apply them to the 2026 fantasy football draft landscape, one position at a time. This year in particular is actually seeing some unique positional trends, so this process should be especially valuable. Let’s get right into it!

Value-Based Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 2026

Quarterback Value-Based Drafting Strategy

In some ways, the QB position is the perfect poster child for VBD strategies. Quarterbacks are consistently the highest-projected players in traditional fantasy football leagues, but that doesn’t make them the most valuable. There are so many consistently productive fantasy QBs that even the truly elite options don’t provide much surplus value. Additionally, those elite options can often be found later in drafts, like Drake Maye (QB2) and Matthew Stafford (QB3) were in 2025. The difference in both median projections and ranges of outcomes between mid-range QB1s and even backend QB2s is often marginal.

Intuitively, this means that a VBD strategy will suggest waiting on quarterbacks. And for this year’s ADP, that’s true … kind of. If we look just at FantasyPros’ VORP rankings, every single highly-drafted QB is being overdrafted, most by massive margins. But if we look instead at VOLS rankings, this trend switches. It’s not as consistent, but most players in the QB1 range are actually being undervalued according to VOLS.

However, this second fact overstates the projected value that most QBs are bringing compared to the last starting option. Assuming a 12-team league, VOLS is comparing quarterbacks to the QB12 in projections, who happens to be Justin Herbert. The gap between Herbert and even Jayden Daniels, the QB2 in projections, is just 28 points. With how much quarterback scoring can vary over a year — especially thanks to passing TD rates — this is essentially nothing.

VORP is also particularly valuable when evaluating quarterbacks because of how often that “replacement” player can simply become a genuine starting option. The VORP rankings use the QB17, Daniel Jones, as the replacement level QB. He is far, far more likely to become a consistently startable QB1 (which he was last year prior to injury) than the replacement-level running back (Tank Bigsby) or wide receiver (John Metchie III).

Beyond the overall positional trend of quarterbacks not having huge replacement values, there isn’t much to take from QB VORP/VOLS data. Josh Allen stands alone at the top, then the other elite dual-threat QBs (Daniels, Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson) form a clear second tier. After that, we reach a relatively flat tier of players who aren’t hugely far from either the replacement player or the last starter.

This isn’t too dissimilar from last year’s QB landscape, or indeed most years’. As always, a few top pocket passers (Joe Burrow, Caleb Williams, etc.) are overvalued compared to their median projections, while some dual-threat types (Hurts, Jaxson Dart, etc.) are undervalued. Median projections aren’t everything, of course, which is a limitation of any numbers-based VBD approach (this is a key caveat to remember throughout this article). But even a vibes-based analysis will lead to the same conclusion: Don’t spend too much on a quarterback, but if you do, make sure they add value with their legs.

Running Back Value-Based Drafting Strategy

Things were fairly cut-and-dry at QB, but it is a lot harder to make generalizations about how VBD views the 2026 fantasy running back options. In half-PPR, VORP tends to like highly drafted running backs more than ADP. But it’s not universal, and it’s not often by a huge margin. VOLS is even less conclusive, with zero trend in terms of the top RBs being good or bad picks at ADP. There are also fewer clear tiers here than at QB; both VOLS and VORP descend relatively smoothly throughout the running back rankings.

However, things get more interesting when we compare running back value metrics to those of players at other positions. VORP straight-up loves running backs. All of the top 10 and 25 out of the top 30 overall players in half-PPR VORP are running backs. Starting around RB20, essentially every running back is ranked far higher in VORP than they are in ADP. If we take these facts at face value, they would mean that fantasy managers should be absolutely smashing RBs in the early and especially middle rounds, where they provide massively more VORP than players with similar ADPs at other positions. But things aren’t quite that simple. Kenneth Gainwell may have the same mathematical VORP as Nico Collins (yes, that’s true), but he’s obviously a worse fantasy pick.

VORP loves running backs to an unhealthy degree simply because of the nature of the position. Each NFL team will only give consistent touches to one or two running backs, so median projections for the position fall off a cliff when we run out of those players. The “replacement-level” running back, Tank Bigsby, comes after that cliff. He is projected for a completely useless 3.8 half-PPR points per game. With Bigsby as their benchmark, every running back with a real role looks like a smash pick.

This is, once again, a quirk of VORP being based entirely on median projections. Unfortunately, these projections are particularly unhelpful for non-starting running backs. Because running back fantasy production is so heavily based on usage, the range of outcomes for late-round running backs is wider than at other positions. Bigsby, the theoretical “replacement” RB, may straight-up suck in terms of median projections. But there’s a realistic universe where he takes over for an injured Saquon Barkley and is a legit league-winner (or at least a weekly starter). That’s not the case for replacement-level options at other positions.

So running backs aren’t as valuable as VORP might make them seem. But VBD still makes a convincing case for drafting RBs early and often. We know that truly elite RB seasons win leagues like nothing else (as supported by Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs having easily the highest VORPs of any players). And, while there is a higher chance of finding truly great RB production on waivers than at other positions, the true replacement-level options are often truly disgusting. This makes solid RBs more valuable as trade chips, so you’ll probably never regret having too many running backs.

Wide Receiver Value-Based Drafting Strategy

One of the recurring themes of fantasy football discussions this offseason has been “Death of The WR2“, as non-elite fantasy wideouts are struggling to separate from the plentiful good-not-great options at the position. To an extent, this theory is borne out by the VBD data (aka projections). Garrett Wilson, the WR14 in both projections and ADP, has a VOLS of just 40 half-PPR points, less than 2.4 points per game across the whole season.

The Jets’ WR1 is clearly the start of a tier, and there are reasonable arguments to make that tier truly massive. Would anyone be surprised if Luther Burden III (WR29 in VORP) outscored Wilson? What about Mike Evans (WR32), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR36), or even Josh Downs (WR51)? Downs may be a bit of a stretch, but he’s just two spots ahead of the “replacement player,” John Metchie. Once the true WR1s are off the board, drafting an expensive wideout is probably a bad move from a VBD perspective.

This is confirmed when we compare ADP to VORP. Every single one of the top 30 wide receivers is ranked lower in VORP than they are in ADP. And this makes sense intuitively. Outside of absurdly deep leagues, there are normally some relatively usable WR options on the waiver wire.

Of course, this is the corollary to every running back being undervalued, and it should be taken with a similar grain of salt. Picking a wide receiver in the early rounds isn’t inherently a mistake. If anything, the most elite options are actually more valuable because they can truly separate from the pack; if we look at VOLS instead of VORP, we see that most WR1s are ranked higher than their ADPs.

Another way to look at this data is that wide receiver value is more often found in VOLS than VORP — elite WRs are valuable, but “solid” options are relatively replaceable. With this in mind, the main actionable takeaway is to target high-upside wideouts with your middle-round picks, even if they come with correspondingly lower floors. If you hit on a breakout WR, you have a very valuable asset. If you miss, the “replacement” options on waivers won’t be too bad, especially in shallower leagues.

Tight End Value-Based Drafting Strategy

In most years, tight end is a position defined by a few true difference-makers and then a bunch of roughly interchangeable members of what I like to call the Tight End Wasteland(TM). A quick glance at the position’s VORP and VOLS charts for 2026 indicates that we are likely headed for another year along those lines. Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Colston Loveland are the only TEs with VORP values above 50 half-PPR points. The gap in projections between the TE4 (Tyler Warren) and the TE14 (Jake Ferguson) is less than 30 points.

Arguably, projections show only two truly elite fantasy tight ends heading into the 2026 season. Even Loveland is projected to outscore TE12 Isaiah Likely by under 2.0 points per game. This is why it’s always tempting to pay up for an elite TE or punt the position entirely. Personally, if I don’t land either McBride or Bowers early, I’ll probably be one of the last managers to take a tight end in most drafts.

In terms of comparing VORP to ADP, things are ugly for tight ends. Among top-12 TEs, only Dallas Goedert — who consensus projections are clearly much higher on than the market — isn’t considered overvalued by this metric. The elite names at the top are by no means immune from this: McBride and Bowers are ranked a whopping 36 and 46 spots higher in ADP than VORP.

All of these numbers make a compelling case for simply punting the TE position entirely. In traditional one-TE formats, there are enough Hunter Henry/Dalton Schultz/Brenton Strange types available that you will never be completely doomed at the position. And most other options at the position won’t score enough to leave your bargain streamer in the dust.

However, while late-round TE is certainly a viable strategy, tight end is unique in that true breakouts are exceedingly rare. To win a fantasy championship, you want your team to be above-average at every single position. And, aside from a few exceptions, most cheap tight ends have essentially zero chance to emerge as genuinely top-tier options. Don’t be too focused on “value” to the detriment of simply building a roster that is ready to compete in Week 1 and beyond.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

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