Floor keeps you competitive. Ceiling hangs banners. All that matters is league-winning upside. The downside of a player is irrelevant. There is no difference between finishing second and last. We play to win fantasy football championships. We should draft like it.
A true league winner needs to meet some combination of a realistic path to fantasy-breaking production, value over replacement, positional advantage, and value relative to average draft position. This will be my foundation when identifying true league winners, with a focus on their fantasy ceiling.
Now, running backs and wide receivers are where we should focus most of our attention when looking for league winners. This is because these are the positions that historically have the most league winners.
Since you won’t find quarterbacks or tight ends in my list, here are the late-round quarterbacks to target. If you’re interested in tight ends, Ellis Bryn Johnson has a nice write-up on players to target.
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Fantasy Football League Winners (2026)
Running Backs
Over the past 10 years, 22 running backs drafted in the first two rounds have averaged 20 points per game or more. Only one running back drafted after the second round has done it. There is a reason 12 running backs are going within the first 20 picks. This is where you find league winners.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) & Bijan Robinson (ATL)
It is no surprise Gibbs and Robinson are at the top of the list. These two should be the 1.01 and 1.02 in standard, half-PPR, and PPR drafts. Every single time. These two alone could carry you to your championship, give you a significant positional advantage, and provide much more flexibility late in drafts due to the depth at wide receiver this year.
I list Gibbs first because over the past 10 years, the overall RB1 has played in a top-10 offense nine out of the 10 times. The only exception was Austin Ekeler in 2022 when he had 100 receptions. While Bijan could catch 100 passes from Tua Tagovailoa, I’d much rather bet on the running back in a projected top-10 offense who knows who his starting quarterback will be. Detroit is also one of the few teams insulated from a bad offensive coordinator because Dan Campbell can step in if things go wrong.
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
I know the concerns around CMC are that he is injury-prone, he is 30 years old, and he is coming off a 400+ touch season. I couldn’t care less. Since joining the 49ers in 2022, he has averaged over 20 points per game when he is on the field. I’m not passing on a player with this much league-winning upside because I am scared of what might happen. McCaffrey should be the 1.03, only behind Gibbs and Bijan.
Kenneth Walker III (KC)
The last time Andy Reid had a running back this talented was over a decade ago. His name was Jamaal Charles. In 2013, Reid’s first year with 26-year-old Charles, the back finished with 259 carries, 1,287 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 70 receptions, 693 receiving yards, and seven TDs. He finished with 22.9 points per game as the RB1. Kenneth Walker turns 26 in October. Coincidence or fate?
On a serious note, in 2025, 30-year-old Kareem Hunt fell into the end zone nine times while playing a part-time role with only 188 opportunities (RB31). Ten touchdowns for Walker seems like the absolute worst-case scenario.
This is because right now, Walker is arguably the best offensive weapon on the team. Travis Kelce-Swift is turning 37 years old in October. Rashee Rice has had off-field issues, and even now, reports out of camp haven’t been great when it comes to his on-field performance.
While Cyrus Allen has been the talk of camp due to the negatives surrounding Rice, if we come back to reality for a moment, the negative Rice news, if true, benefits Walker the most. This is because in 2025, 26% of Rice’s receiving yards came from screen plays, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. If Walker can eat into some of that work while also seeing the expected RB1 usage on the ground, he will end up being a league winner. He is currently being taken as the RB11 at the back end of the second round.
Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Mike McDaniel put Keaton Mitchell‘s photo in Jim Harbaugh’s office, encouraging him to sign Mitchell. Kimani Vidal showed he was a capable replacement when they needed him in 2025. McDaniel has also been very vocal about the potential of a split backfield and riding the hot hand.
According to @CoachspeakIndex, McDaniel was asked a very similar question about his Miami backfield in 2024. McDaniel said, “Who says we have to stop at two? Maybe we can just have four. I think you have to let the players determine who gets the ball and how frequently and how much they’re in the game.”
McDaniel then proceeded to feed Achane 290 opportunities. He finished with 15.3 points per game, all while Miami was in the bottom half of the league in total points and total yards.
The Chargers are projected to have one of the league’s best offenses. McDaniel has always had a tendency to feed his most talented playmakers. Omarion Hampton, a 2025 first-round pick in a very deep running back class, is the best talent in that backfield. The downside is already baked into his ADP. Worst-case scenario, he is a top-12 running back due to a split in the backfield.
I’m just not buying that Keaton Mitchell is going to eat into Hampton’s usage after the Ravens didn’t want to pay a $3.5 million free-agency tender with a chance to keep him behind a 32-year-old Derrick Henry, nor do I believe that a third-string running back, Kimani Vidal, will do it either. Once Hampton asserts his dominance over that backfield, McDaniel will lean into Hampton as he has done with his other stars. If that happens, watch out.
David Montgomery (HOU)
At his cost in the middle rounds, Montgomery has the potential to win your league. This isn’t because he is going to put up 20 points per game, but because if you wait on running back, he could be the life jacket that saves your team as a top-12 running back finisher.
Nick Caley’s offense ranked seventh in the NFL in man/gap scheme, and Montgomery averaged 5.36 YPC on man/gap plays (second). In 2025, Houston ranked 31st in touchdown conversion rate inside the 5-yard line. Over the past three years, Montgomery’s touchdown conversion rate has been 42% (RB3), per Fantasy Points Data Suite. To say Montgomery is an upgrade for this offense is an understatement.
While C.J. Stroud might not instill much confidence when it comes to offensive production, we know Houston has one of the best defenses in the NFL. They are projected to win 10 of their 15 games currently lined, which should give Montgomery a lot of positive game scripts to benefit from. Even with Woody Marks lingering in the shadows, Montgomery has the potential and talent to play the Joe Mixon role.
Jonathon Brooks (CAR)
It is probably strange seeing a running back on this list who hasn’t played in the NFL in two years, but there are three reasons he makes my list.
First, he is an eighth-to-ninth-round running back, so you can get him cheap. Second, Chuba Hubbard is cooked. Not overdone, not half-baked, cooked. I could give you six different efficiency metrics that show Chuba finished at the bottom of the league in all of them, but I will only give you one.
Over the past five years, among running backs with at least 75 carries, only one had zero explosive rushing yards. His name was Chuba Hubbard, and he did it with 134 carries, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Cooked.
Third is Dave Canales. Canales has one of the most favorable environments for running backs in the NFL. When he finds his bell cow, he feeds him. We all remember 2025 mid-season league winner, Rico Dowdle. In 2024 and 2025, Panthers running backs as a unit ranked 13th and 14th in combined carries and targets. They even did this with a 13-21 record.
Jonathon Brooks legitimately has the potential to be a three-down back in a run-focused offense come Week 1. You can’t say that about any other RB in this range.
Wide Receivers
The NFL has changed. In 2025, teams averaged just 210 passing yards per game, which was the lowest mark since 2006. While there are a lot of variables, two recent rule changes have played a role in the shift. Touchbacks now come out to the 35-yard line, creating shorter fields, while changes to the K-ball rule give kickers a full week to prepare, kicking balls instead of just an hour before the game. Fields are getting shorter, and kickers are making longer field goals at a higher rate. This has made receiving yards harder to come by, increasing the value of touchdowns for receivers. This will be a focus when trying to identify these league winners.
Malik Nabers (NYG)
Nabers’ injury and the signing of offensive coordinator Matt Nagy have pulled down his average draft position to the third and sometimes fourth round. He is consistently being taken outside the top-10 wide receivers. People so quickly forget that in 2025, he was being drafted as the WR5 at the end of the first round. As a rookie, he finished as WR7 with 15.1 points per game despite catching passes from Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito.
Now Nabers has a very capable Jaxson Dart throwing him passes, and his biggest target competition is currently TE Isaiah Likely. I don’t see a world where he isn’t seeing seven to 10 targets a game, which would put him on pace to be top five in WR volume. The Giants are projected to lose 11 of their currently lined games, and they face Detroit and Dallas in Weeks 16 and 17 for the fantasy playoffs. Not only does he bring league-winning potential, but you can get him at a discount with a very favorable playoff schedule.
Tee Higgins (CIN)
Higgins is George Pickens at about a two-round discount. Over the past two years, in games when Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins all played, and each receiver ran at least a 70% route share, Higgins averaged 15 points per game, making him the WR4, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Even if we don’t get that specific, Higgins finished with 15.5 PPG (WR4) in 2024 and 12.1 PPG (WR12) in 2025. In a Joe Burrow-led offense where the Bengals have ranked top two in pass attempts per game over the past two years, Higgins is undoubtedly a WR1 being drafted like a late value WR2.
Christian Watson (GB)
Once Watson was ramped up and playing full time in a crowded Green Bay wide receiver room in 2025, Watson posted a 24% TPRR, 61 receiving yards per game (WR19), 2.49 YPRR, and a 28% first-read target share, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Now, both Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs are gone. While this obviously helps Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft, it is significantly more impactful for Watson. It doesn’t help the other two nearly as much because both were already playing their respective roles full time, Kraft at tight end and Reed in the slot.
Watson predominantly ran routes out wide, directly competing with Doubs and Wicks. Those two vacated 440 routes and 97 targets out wide. While Matthew Golden will eat into some of this opportunity, Watson should be the main beneficiary of the reduced receiving competition. Green Bay is projected to have a top-10 scoring offense. Josh Jacobs was added to the NFL Commissioner’s Exempt List, which means he should miss time. The focus has shifted to running back MarShawn Lloyd, but the Jacobs news makes me even more bullish on Watson.
Mike Evans (SF), Terry McLaurin (WAS), and Davante Adams (LAR)
I’m lumping these three together as my old guys with touchdown upside. While I don’t want too many old guys (in football years, respectfully), I will be targeting one of these three in all of my drafts. We could see a repeat of what Davante Adams did in 2025 with his top-12 wide receiver finish.
While all of these guys might net us negative yards after the catch, they are our touchdown kings. All three should be on a top offense and have been heavily targeted in the end zone throughout their careers. They all still separate and win against their defenders at a high level, and all of them have the potential to pull a hammy walking to the refrigerator. While they carry heavy injury risk, at WR25-WR30 in ADP, I am willing to bet one of them breaks into the top-12 WR tier if they can stay on the field.
De’Zhaun Stribling (SF)
The hype is very real. As a prospect, I was extremely low on Stribling. He profiled as one of the worst second-round wide receiver draft picks in my projection model. But the situation sometimes trumps the profile.
It doesn’t really matter who Kyle Shanahan rolls out each week on offense. If they are the focal point of the offense, they score fantasy points. In 2025, Jauan Jennings finished with 10.2 PPG (WR28) when he ran above a 60% route share. Kendrick Bourne finished with 17.9 points per game when he was the wide receiver one for two weeks. Jake Tonges was a top-12 tight end when Kittle was injured. If we look back through the past few years, it tells the same story.
If the 49ers are unable to stay healthy, it might just be the Stribling show due to a lack of options. Throw in that Kyle Shanahan received a lot of flak over the offseason for his questionable draft picks. He might just force-feed Stribling the ball to prove he was right and everyone else was wrong. Either way, as a very late-round wide receiver dart throw, he makes sense as a potential league winner with the opportunity to significantly outperform his ADP in this high-powered 49ers offense.
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