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3 Burning Questions: Fantasy Football Lineup Advice (Week 1)

3 Burning Questions: Fantasy Football Lineup Advice (Week 1)

NFL Week 1 is already underway, but the first two games were merely an appetizer for Sunday’s main course, with Monday for dessert. Fantasy gamers have plenty of decisions to make, and those decisions prompt questions. Fortunately, with the start of the new season, I’m back for Friday fantasy football AMAs on Discord, and the way to get in on asking questions is to join our Discord. Let’s look at three questions from Friday evening’s AMA.

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Fantasy Football Discord AMA: Week 1

Can Gamers Trust Malik Nabers?

Gamers are in a pickle with Malik Nabers. The Giants play on Sunday Night, and Nabers is listed as questionable. It’s unclear whether he’ll play, and he hasn’t provided much clarity.

It appears there is a legitimate chance he won’t suit up.

Whether gamers should start Nabers or sit him is a nuanced discussion. Gamers who are behind the eight ball after poor games from Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown or others from the first two games of the year are probably best served swinging for the fences with Nabers. Embracing the risk is worth it for underdogs.

Gamers in favorable positions to lock up a win with even modest performances from their starters should probably fade the risk of starting Nabers. Many gamers are stuck in the middle, though.

For instance, one FantasyPros Discord member in a tight matchup was weighing whether to start DJ Moore — in a brutal matchup — against the Texans or Nabers. I suggested they start Moore if there isn’t more news about Nabers’ availability before the 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff.

Gamers with bench options from the Giants, Cowboys, Chiefs or Broncos have a bit more flexibility to wait and see. For instance, another FantasyPros Discord member provided a list of three alternatives to using Nabers, and one was J.K. Dobbins. That user can keep Nabers in the lineup and pivot to Dobbins if Nabers is inactive.

Sadly, there isn’t a blanket answer on whether to trust Nabers, but gamers weighing the decision should consider what they need to win their matchup. Perhaps an NFL insider will provide more clarity on the likelihood of Nabers suiting up by late Sunday morning.

How Should MarShawn Lloyd be Valued in Week 1?

MarShawn Lloyd isn’t a set-it-and-forget-it RB2 or FLEX. He has a potentially brutal Week 1 matchup. The Vikings were tied for the 21st-best matchup for running backs last year, allowing only 18.4 half-PPR points per game to the position.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Vikings held running backs to only 3.90 yards per carry and 4.73 yards per target. They also held running backs to only 3.9 targets per game (tied for 31st), 3.1 receptions per game and 18.6 receiving yards per game.

Part of the reason running backs didn’t enjoy receiving success against the Vikings last season might have been the need to keep them in as blockers. Brian Flores is notoriously blitz-happy. The Vikings led the NFL in blitz rate last season at 44.7%; the league average was only 27.2%. Last year isn’t a one-year blip, either. Minnesota’s 46% blitz rate since 2023 is the highest in the NFL, and it’s 5.2% above the second-highest mark.

Minnesota’s blitzing tendencies could also keep Lloyd off the field in potential passing situations. Chris Brooks is a trusted pass-blocking back. As a result, Lloyd could be game-script dependent, and the Packers are 1.5-point underdogs.

Lloyd also might simply struggle. Injuries have derailed the young running back’s career. He’s played in only one game since the Packers picked him in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

All that said, Lloyd was a top-100 pick, going 88th overall, because he’s dynamic. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Lloyd ripped off 816 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns on 115 carries and 7.1 yards per carry in 11 games in his final collegiate campaign at USC. He also turned 18 targets and 13 receptions on 190 routes into 232 rushing yards and 1.22 yards per route run (YPRR).

Lloyd has home-run ability, and while the team intends to use a running back by committee, a hot start from Lloyd could push him to the top of the heap. Lloyd profiles best as a volatile FLEX option this week. As for holding him or trading him, he likely doesn’t have a robust trade market. Gamers are likely best served by holding him to see how things shake out after a few weeks.

Start Juwan Johnson or Michael Mayer?

Gamers who waited at tight end should be overjoyed, as Juwan Johnson and Michael Mayer are both compelling starting options who cost little or nothing in most leagues. Mayer emerged as a streaming option after the Raiders shockingly announced Brock Bowers underwent a meniscus trim and will miss a game or two — which could conceivably turn into more than two games.

Nevertheless, I second the expert consensus rankings (ECR), in which Johnson is TE9 and Mayer is TE14 in half-PPR formats. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, the Saints played at the fastest pace last season, and the Seahawks, with Klint Kubiak as their offensive coordinator, were tied for 18th. Additionally, New Orleans was 19th in pass rate over expected (-0.6% PROE), and Seattle was 27th (-2.8%).

Johnson is in a more fantasy-friendly setup. He’s also coming off a stellar showing when playing with Tyler Shough. In 10 games when Shough played at least 20 snaps last season, Johnson logged the following numbers:

  • 71.3% route participation rate
  • 4.6 receptions per game
  • 57.4 receiving yards per game
  • 1.97 YPRR
  • 2 receiving touchdowns
  • 9.14 half-PPR points per game
  • 7.77 expected half-PPR points per game (xFP)

Mayer also played well without Bowers last year, producing the following numbers in four games without Bowers:

  • 78.4% route participation rate
  • 4.5 receptions per game
  • 49.0 receiving yards per game
  • 2.25 YPRR
  • 1 receiving touchdown
  • 8.65 half-PPR points per game
  • 7.55 xFP

It’s close, but Johnson is a more appealing option at tight end than Mayer.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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