4 Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates (2026)

Regression is a big part of every fantasy baseball season. Some players go through wild swings in-season. Some players don’t see regression happen (good or bad) until the following season. With the calendar turned to September, it’s time to look at regression candidates for next season.

This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression relative to their performance, helping fantasy managers assess each player accurately. Digging beneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine whether a given player is overperforming or underperforming expectations.

With the first five months of the Major League Baseball season behind us and still about 25 games to go for every team, this last article of the season will look at who should be in line for regression next season (and maybe some regression in the last couple of weeks of 2026). Let’s take a look at some of the largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.

Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates

(Stats up to date through August 31st)

Players Due for Positive Regression in 2027

Gunnar Henderson (SS – BAL)

Gunnar Henderson is Exhibit A for a player whose batting average in 2026 makes his season look worse than it actually has been. He is hitting only .223, but his .245 xBA and .319 xwOBA are both better than his actual numbers.

Henderson’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has been terrible (.254), falling well below the level he established during his first two full seasons. For a player with Henderson’s speed and ability to square up the ball, there is plenty of room for that number to rebound in 2027.

Most importantly, the gap between his actual and expected numbers suggests that some of the decline is being driven by poor results on balls in play rather than a collapse in skills.

Henderson has hit 22 home runs, but has stolen just 10 bases compared to 30 in 2025. That speed needs to return in 2027. Having a healthier BABIP combined with his strong power and plate discipline (his walk rate and strikeout rate from 2025-2026 are essentially identical) should make him a much better fantasy hitter in 2027.

Manny Machado (3B – SDP)

Manny Machado’s complete 2026 season looks much worse on the surface than it does underneath, especially when you look at his production over the last month (he is hitting .256 in the second half).

Machado is one of the better positive-regression candidates for 2027. He is hitting just .220 in 2026, but his .249 xBA and .332 xwOBA suggest there is more talent than his actual numbers indicate. The biggest reason has been an abnormally low BABIP (.240), which has been well below his career norm (.295).

There are some legitimate signs of decline, such as Machado’s 44.7% hard-hit rate (51.5% in 2025) and 90.5 miles per hour (MPH) exit velocity, both of which are down from recent seasons. But neither number suggests his bat has suddenly disappeared.

Machado’s 9.3% barrel rate also gives him hope for more power. More importantly, his .332 xwOBA is 21 points higher than his actual wOBA. Machado is obviously entering the later stages of his career, so expecting a return to his peak isn’t realistic.

A significant rebound in batting average and overall fantasy production should follow if his BABIP moves closer to his career levels and his batted-ball results regress.

Players Due for Negative Regression in 2027

Jordan Walker (OF – STL)

Jordan Walker was, without a doubt, the fantasy baseball breakout player of 2026. He is hitting .285 with 27 home runs, 97 RBI and 18 steals, while his 92.4 MPH exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate and 13.5% barrel rate are all excellent. His .352 xwOBA is also strong, meaning this isn’t just a case where his entire season is being driven by good luck.

The concern is that Walker has received a boost from a huge .340 BABIP, well above what he has established previously in the Majors (.310 in 2025, .252 in 2024). Even with his ability to hit the ball hard, maintaining a BABIP that high over another full season will be difficult. Walker’s HR/FB rate (17.5%) is also close to being triple what it was in 2025 (6.6%).

That makes Walker a prime case of a player who can regress while still being a good pick. The improved hard-hit and barrel rates suggest he has finally developed into a better hitter, but the combination of a .285 average, .340 BABIP, 24.3% strikeout rate and elevated home runs should have us thinking carefully about where he should be drafted in 2027.

Colson Montgomery (SS – CWS)

Colson Montgomery’s 2026 power breakout was one of the fantasy baseball stories of the season, but there are warning signs in his profile that make him a negative-regression candidate for 2027.

Montgomery has 29 home runs with 77 RBI (21/55 in 2025), but the biggest change has been how dramatically he has altered his launch profile. He has a 51% fly-ball rate in 2026, despite never posting a fly-ball rate above 42% in the minors before this season. That is an enormous change, and maybe the White Sox are encouraging him to hit like this, but it’s something to monitor.

Montgomery’s 88.9 MPH average exit velocity is modest, while his strikeout rate has climbed into the 34% range. His walk rate hasn’t increased enough to offset those additional strikeouts, meaning he is putting fewer balls in play while relying heavily on his fly-ball power to generate offense.

It worries me anytime I see a power spike and a huge strikeout spike. If Montgomery’s fly-ball rate moves back toward his historical levels and his HR/FB rate regresses at the same time, the mid-30s-homer pace could prove difficult to repeat.