6 Players Experts Do Not Draft (2026 Fantasy Football)

When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and which to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few players our fantasy football experts avoid in drafts.

2026 Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Players Experts Avoid

Here are players our experts avoid in fantasy football drafts.

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Last year, Matthew Stafford had a monster season as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, finishing with the most passing touchdowns and the third-highest passing yardage total of his career in a single season. Stafford can be very good this season, and I think it’s a tough bet to expect him to repeat those numbers in 2026. His 7.7% passing touchdown rate last year was absolute insanity. Since 2008, there have been only 12 seasons in which a passer has finished with a 7.5% or higher passing touchdown rate, and that’s including Stafford’s 2025 performance (minimum 250 passing attempts). At this point in Stafford’s career, we aren’t counting on any rushing production, so to repeat as a QB1 again in 2026, he’ll have to get it done exclusively through the air. He and his aging/injury-prone receiving room have to stay healthy in 2026 to even hope to come close to last year’s magical season. If Davante Adams and/or Puka Nacua miss any time, then Stafford’s production will take a hit with the top-heavy and thin nature of their receiving depth chart. Drafting Stafford this season feels like exclusively chasing last year’s production in the hopes that it repeats, and that’s not a bet I want to make.

Alec Pierce (WR – IND)

Alec Pierce finished as the WR23 in fantasy points per game last year after serving as Indy’s field stretcher. He had only a 17.4% target share (19.4 aDOT), but he turned that into 1,003 receiving yards and six scores. Indy was counting on Pierce to step into a heavier workload this season with Michael Pittman Jr. gone, but his ankle issues and the signing of Keenan Allen have complicated things. Pierce had left ankle surgery in March of 2026 and has had a bumpy recovery. He needed a PRP injection in January for the same ankle prior to surgery. Pierce will be slow out of the gate for 2026. That isn’t a question. The worry is how long before he’s 100% (if at all in 2026). The positives are Pierce are that last season, among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 12th in receiving yards per game and 16th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those efficiency marks are awesome, but the lingering concerns about Pierce’s health/effectiveness, his target-earning ability, Daniel Jones‘ health/effectiveness, and this Colts’ offense in general push him into the WR3/4 territory in drafts. With the addition of Keenan Allen and Pierce’s continued health struggles, I’m avoiding him in drafts this year.

Check out all of DBro’s top fantasy football draft picks to avoid

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

It’s easy to understand the appeal of Rashee Rice in fantasy football. Over the last two years, he’s averaged 6.4 catches and 71.6 receiving yards per game, with eight touchdowns in 12 regular-season games.

There are indications that RB Kenneth Walker III will be involved in the Chiefs’ screen game. Rice has made a lot of hay in the screen game in recent years, and screens to Walker are screens that Rice isn’t getting.

Rice has terrible personal judgment. He was involved in a high-speed street-racing incident in Dallas in 2024 that caused a multi-car crash, resulting in injuries. He pleaded guilty to third-degree felony charges of collision involving serious bodily injury and racing on a highway causing bodily injury.

In May, Rice violated the terms of his probation by testing positive for marijuana and was ordered to serve 30 days in jail. He recently had cleanup surgery on his knee and had to do his rehab in a Texas jail.

There were drafts in which I took the discount on Rice last year, when everyone knew he would have to serve a six-game suspension at the start of the season. He had a late-sixth-round ADP, and I got him cheaper than that in a couple of home leagues.

Now, Rice has an ADP of WR12 (30th overall). I’m fleeing at that price.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAC)

It could be a colossal mistake to fade a former first-round draft pick who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie.

But Year 2 for BTJ was rough: 48 catches for 707 yards and two touchdowns. His drop rate was 11%. His yards per route run fell by a full yard, from 2.45 to 1.45. The passer rating on throws to BTJ went from 106.2 as a rookie to 81.2 last year.

And when Trevor Lawrence was really cooking down the stretch last season, averaging 265 yards and throwing 18 TD passes over the final seven games of the regular season, Thomas was not getting his fair share of the spoils. He played in six of those seven games and averaged 3.0 receptions and 47.8 yards per game, and he caught just one of those 18 TD passes.

In fairness, BTJ was banged up for much of last season. He had a wrist injury early on that he seemed to be favoring when he caught only seven of his first 25 targets in the first three weeks of the season. He injured his shoulder at midseason, although he didn’t miss any time. And he missed three games with a high-ankle sprain in the second half of the season.

The question is whether the promise of a healthier season is enough for us to buy back in.

For me, it is not.

For one thing, a lot of BTJ’s rookie-year production came with Mac Jones at quarterback, not Trevor Lawrence. With Lawrence at QB in the first nine games of the season, BTJ averaged 5.9 targets, 3.9 catches and 66.1 yards per game. Which isn’t bad. But from Week 10 on, when it was Jones at quarterback for all but 10 pass attempts in one partial game for Lawrence, BTJ averaged 10.0 targets, 6.5 catches and 85.9 yards per game.

The target competition is stiffer now, with Jakobi Meyers joining the team midway through the 2025 season and Parker Washington looking like a breakout star late in the year. The Jags say two-way player Travis Hunter will be deployed primarily as a cornerback this year, but he’s a potential wild card as a target thief.

This just doesn’t seem like an ecosystem that sets up well for a Brian Thomas Jr. bounce-back.

Check out all of Fitz’s top fantasy football draft picks to avoid

Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)

Jake Ferguson averaged just 7.3 PPG when George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb were both healthy (> 50% snap share) in the lineup during the 2025 season (11 games). Five games without Lamb playing at least 50% of the snaps -> 13.5 PPG. Still, the overall production and career-high 8 TDs resulted in TE13 finishing in half-PPR scoring (per game). Top-5 in cumulative scoring in full PPR formats. With George Pickens returning to Dallas….Ferguson is facing a major uphill battle to rise above TD-or-bust TE territory. He’s being overvalued as a fringe TE1 because of his teammates’ missed games in 2025. I also think that Cowboys WR3, Ryan Flournoy, will seize a larger role in the Dallas offense.

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)

Mark Andrews was a flat-out bust in 75% of his games played last season. He finished as a weekly fantasy football TE1 (top-12) in under 20% of his games (3 of 17). He was the TE16 last season (TE23 in PPG), and he’s not getting any younger. I’m very concerned that he might just be closer to being cooked. Posted a career low in yards (422). His yards per route run TANKED to 1.22. His YAC tanked. Dead last in YAC/reception among 49 qualifying tight ends. Zach “never forced a missed tackle in his life” Ertz had more YAC than Andrews did last season. And Andrews was bad with and without Lamar Jackson last season. There’s a path for volume in the Ravens’ offense, which is why Andrews is being ranked/drafted as a top-15 consensus tight end. But I’m afraid his decline will continue after he has failed to command the same type of volume over the last two seasons. The training camp has been so poor regarding Andrews’ performances…that a lot of local beat reporters aren’t even mentioning the tight end because he’s been such a great Raven during his career. But for 2026? Not so much. Just say no.

Check out all of Erickson’s top fantasy football draft picks to avoid