Beyond the Waiver Wire: Fantasy Football Moves to Make (Week 2)

NFL Week 1 is in the books. Running backs smashed. Points were abundant (other than in the four prime-time games). It’s time to shift our fantasy football sights to Week 2. Waiver wire targets. Trades to make. Start/sit decisions. Let my “Beyond the Waiver Wire” series be your compass, guiding you to success in fantasy football for Week 2.

No fluff (or less fluff). Trust me, I am trying my best. Advanced metrics/data are provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS).

The order of the 32 teams is based on their Week 2 schedule.

LFG.

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Fantasy Football Beyond the Waiver Wire: Week 2

Detroit Lions

Buy Jameson Williams

Jahmyr Gibbs delivered a true workhorse, elite-efficiency game, and it’s the headline fantasy storyline from the Lions-Saints matchup. A complete workhorse profile: 29 carries for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns (both 1-yard scores), a 2-for-2 conversion rate on his scoring chances, plus 12 forced missed tackles — the most in any game of his career. He set career highs with 24 carries on plays with motion (131 yards, 2 touchdowns, 6 explosive runs — no player has had more explosive motion runs in a game since Justin Fields‘ 7 in Week 9, 2022) and 99 yards on 17 zone-blocking carries, both better than any single game he had in 2025 (NGS).

Gibbs’ actual goal-line role was even bigger than the box score suggests, as two additional carries inside the 2-yard line were wiped out by penalties (an offensive holding call and a minor Lions offside carry) on a drive that ultimately settled for a field goal instead of a third score.

We bet Gibbs’ anytime touchdown in Week 1, and it’s very much time to roll those winnings over into Week 2. You think he’s going to let his boy Knuckles (David Montgomery) post a hat trick against the Buffalo Bills’ defense in Week 1, only to fall behind against the same defense in Week 2? Sonic doesn’t fly that way. Thursday night. Get ready for Super Sonic Gibbs.

We should note that Detroit’s projected starting line wasn’t on the field for most of Week 1 — left guard Christian Mahogany left early with an injury and was ruled out, but his replacement, Ben Bartch, made an emergency start and was a genuine positive (2.8% pressure rate allowed, a career low). Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (left and returned twice).

Amon-Ra St. Brown remains Detroit’s clear-cut No. 1 WR. He had team-high 14 targets (35.9% target share), a game-high 95.0% route participation rate and a team-high 4 red-zone targets. He also scored twice (a 19-yard bomb and a 4-yard overtime score) — one big play, one red-zone conversion.

Sam LaPorta saw real, clear No. 1 TE usage behind St. Brown: 8 targets (20.5% target share), 82.5% route participation, 2 red-zone targets and 1 end-zone target. Trust the volume going forward. He appears to be 100% healthy, with no lingering effects from last year’s back injury or the one he suffered during the preseason.

Jameson Williams drew the second-most targets on the team with 9, good for a 23.1% target share, behind only St. Brown — real No. 2 WR volume worth tracking, though this stat line doesn’t capture the true game Williams could have had. He had multiple opportunities for massive plays, so he left some production on the cutting room floor. Williams is boom-or-bust by nature, so this can sometimes happen. But it also signals a clear buying opportunity whenever he comes off a down performance (4 catches for 45 yards in Week 1 plus a red-zone target with no score).

The underlying profile is exactly what you want from a wide receiver looking to boom — a team-high 14.1 average depth of target (aDOT), 54.0% air yard share and a 90.0% route-participation rate on an 86.3% snap share. The Lions will surely need him if they are going to keep pace with a high-powered Buffalo Bills offense that just posted a 36-burger on the Houston Texans’ defense on the road.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at BUF (Road) | Week 3 vs. NYJ (Home) | Week 4 at CAR (Road) | Week 5 at ARI (Road)

Buffalo Bills

Buy Dalton Kincaid

Week 1 gave us a genuine Bills-Texans shootout, and NGS puts the Houston Texans’ side of it in historical context. The 36 points Buffalo scored is the most a DeMeco Ryans-led Texans defense has allowed in a game since his first season as head coach (2023) — only Tampa Bay’s 37 points (Week 9, 2023) was worse for a Ryans defense. This wasn’t a garbage-time inflation story either: Buffalo led by double digits only briefly and had to answer a late Houston field goal with the game-sealing touchdown drive.

Josh Allen turned in a complete quarterback game — 20-of-29 for 334 yards and 2 passing touchdowns, plus 6 carries for 23 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns (a 21-yard scramble and a 1-yard sneak, both in the second quarter). Per NGS, he averaged 12.6 air yards per attempt, his highest in a game since Week 18 of 2022, and was 11-of-16 for 286 yards and 2 touchdowns on throws of 10+ air yards — the most downfield passing yards a Ryans-led Texans defense allowed in a game since he took over in 2023.

Two defensive pass interference (DPI) calls bookended the same shape of play — a real, would-be opportunity erased, followed later on the same drive by a touchdown. Houston’s Kamari Lassiter drew a 46-yard DPI on a deep target to DJ Moore, putting Buffalo at 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line; Allen scored on a sneak two snaps later. Buffalo’s Christian Benford drew a 21-yard DPI on a deep target to Nico Collins three plays before Collins capped that same drive with his own 12-yard touchdown catch.

Safety Cole Bishop left and returned; linebacker Terrel Bernard was injured in the third quarter and also returned.

Moore’s Buffalo debut (5 catches on 8 targets for 100 yards and 1 touchdown) came with real downfield stress on the Houston secondary. According to NGS, he caught 4 out of 7 targets of 10+ air yards for 93 yards — his highest downfield receiving total in a game since Week 17 of 2023 — and the 46-yard DPI above adds a fifth piece of evidence that he was drawing genuine coverage attention deep in his first game in a Buffalo uniform. That DPI set up Allen’s touchdown sneak.

Moore’s final box score almost undersells it — 10 true targets (two penalty-erased incompletions added back) equals a team-high 31.3% adjusted target share. His 74.2% route participation and a game-high 19.4 aDOT round out a “true no. 1 WR” signal in Week 1 of his tenure with the Bills.

Dalton Kincaid set a career high in yards with 130, catching 5 of his 6 targets, and he did it in an unusual manner for a tight end — all three of his wide-alignment targets were caught for 113 yards. That tied him with Kyle Pitts (Week 7, 2021) for the most receiving yards by a tight end aligned out wide in a single game during the NGS era (since 2016).

Kincaid had a team-high 76.9% snap share, but his 71.0% route participation trailed Moore’s 74.2% — some of his snaps are still blocking reps, not routes. But it’s still better than what Kincaid was working with (or against) last season as a more part-time player. Just like when Happy Gilmore learned how to putt… imagine what Kincaid could do with a more full-time role and functional PCLs.

James Cook was the clear lead back on paper (69.2% snap share) but had a light workload overall — 13 carries and a true 4 targets (12.5% adjusted target share), with no red-zone or goal-line carries logged. Both of Buffalo’s rushing scores went to Allen, not Cook.

Sometimes that will happen to Cook — Allen vulturing short scores at the goal line — but it hasn’t inhibited him too drastically in past seasons.

Khalil Shakir clearly operated as Buffalo’s third read (7 true targets, 22% adjusted target share) behind Moore and Kincaid, but his 3 red-zone targets were tied for the second-most of any player in the game — a real scoring-area role (which has traditionally not been Shakir’s domain). A name worth knowing for touchdown-prop purposes even in weeks when his target share stays low.

Joshua Palmer had just 1 catch on 2 targets, but it went for a 34-yard touchdown.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. DET (Home) | Week 3 vs. LAC (Home) | Week 4 vs. NE (Home) | Week 5 at LAR (Road)

Cincinnati Bengals

Buy Ja’Marr Chase

Oh, Ja’Marr Chase. Why do you have to do fantasy managers so dirty like this every year in Week 1? Just two catches for 12 yards for Chase versus the Buccaneers …marking yet another disappointing start to his season-long campaign. But we’ve done this same old song and dance before. Could we see 200 yards next week versus the Texans? Yup. Nobody should be panicked about the No. 3 consensus pick in 2026 fantasy football drafts.

I don’t expect tight end Mike Gesicki‘s usage to carry over week to week. Even though he was the headline of Week 1 for the Bengals’ passing attack.

Gesicki tied for the team target lead (7) on just a 33.3% snap share, thanks to a 47.2% route-participation rate — he’s a route-concentrated weapon, not a volume-snap player. He. scored from the 2-yard line, added +22 receiving yards over expected (RYOE) — his third-most in a game as a Bengal — and he ran 76.5% of his routes from the slot, catching 4 of his 6 slot targets for 76 yards (+21 RYOE) at a 46.2% slot target rate, his highest as a Bengal. His lone wide-alignment target was the touchdown itself.

The fact that Gesicki played so few snaps and was out-targeted by Chase/Tee Higgins by a decent chunk has me concerned about whether this is truly sustainable. Not to mention that he’s popped off in certain matchups in previous seasons, only to fade away the following week. I understand the allure of Gesicki as the de facto “No. 3 WR/slot receiver” in the Bengals’ offense, given his high target rate per route run (41%), but it was nearly identical to Noah Fant‘s Week 1 usage with the Saints. Do not overinflate his Week 1 performance.

Gesicki played fewer snaps than Drew Sample (65.1% snap share but a modest 36.% route participation) and just one more snap than Erick All Jr.

It seems like malpractice to chase Gesicki’s production even after the Texans got cooked by Dalton Kincaid in Week 1.

Chase Brown posted a 72% snap share, matching a true bell-cow workload — team-high 16 carries, including a designed goal-line touchdown, plus 5 catches on 6 targets.

Samaje Perine was back in his normal role as the complementary passing-down back behind Brown (28.6% snap share) — 5 carries and 3 targets is real but secondary volume, with no standalone path to a bigger role as things stand in the Bengals’ backfield.

A replay reversal wiped out what would have been Higgins’ longest catch of the day. In the third quarter, an on-field ruling of a 33-yard completion to Higgins was challenged by Tampa Bay and overturned to an incomplete pass. The Bengals’ No. 2 WR finished the game with a 72% snap share, 80.6% route participation, a 30.2% air yard share and 13.9 aDOT. His official stat line was 6/3/59.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at HOU (Road) | Week 3 at PIT (Road) | Week 4 vs. JAX (Home) | Week 5 at MIA (Road)

Houston Texans

Sell David Montgomery & Add Dalton Schultz

Houston’s offense matched Buffalo blow for blow in a track-meet loss — and its defense allowed the most points by a DeMeco Ryans-coached unit since 2023.

Nico Collins is Houston’s unquestioned No. 1 WR — he had the highest true target share, highest route participation and a touchdown on the same drive as his own erased deep shot. Collins commanded a true 12 targets (up from an already team-high 10 official targets) and a 28.6% adjusted target share. His touchdown catch came on the same drive as his own erased 21-yard DPI target three plays earlier.

The backfield split looks like a committee by snaps (50.7% for David Montgomery / 49.3% for Woody Marks), but wasn’t one by usage — Montgomery took every touch that mattered (all 3 touchdowns, the lead carry share).

Montgomery had a complete 3-touchdown workhorse game (60 rushing yards, 2 rush touchdowns, plus a 7-yard receiving score). However, a closer look at the backfield split does raise concerns about whether Montgomery can maintain this pace, given that he won’t face the Buffalo Bills’ notably poor run defense (which played its first game under a new defensive coordinator/scheme in Week 1) every week.

Now don’t get me wrong. Or understate Montgomery’s red-zone role. Every scoring opportunity in this backfield ran through him. And Montgomery was the preferred back in the first half (14 touches to Marks’ 4).

But going beyond the box score (or the waiver wire, given the article’s title) suggests that Montgomery might be a prime sell-high candidate. He didn’t exactly light up the box score with just 60 rushing yards on 20 carries compared to Marks’ 42 yards on 9 carries. Montgomery also averaged fewer than 2.0 yards after contact per attempt and a 35% rushing success rate. Both were inferior marks to Marks in Week 1.

Tight end Dalton Schultz earned solid complementary volume — 8 true targets (19.0% adjusted share) on a 73.2% route rate — but is clearly Houston’s No. 2 target behind Collins, with no red-zone/end-zone targets logged this week, suggesting no standalone scoring equity yet. Not super productive despite good volume – likely attributable to how effective this Bills’ defensive personnel has been at defending tight ends in past years. That likely won’t be the case next week, given the Bengals’ defense, which has the opposite reputation against tight ends.

Kayshon Boutte‘s Texans debut was much better than Romeo Doubs‘ patriots debut (not a high bar to pass). The official box score (2 targets, 1 catch, 21 yards) initially looks thin, but his true target count is 3 after Houston’s own chop-block penalty wiped out a six-yard catch — worth knowing that the box score undersold his involvement by a full target, even if the overall role remains a work in progress given Boutte’s late arrival to the roster. He ran fewer routes than Xavier Hutchinson, but I have to imagine this will increase in the upcoming games. Jaylin Noel (cry emoji) is still buried in usage. Be better, Houston.

Linebacker Jake Hummel was hurt (labeled as week-to-week) and was later ruled out for the game. Offensive lineman Evan Brown was evaluated for an injury but quickly returned to action.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. CIN (Home) | Week 3 at IND (Road) | Week 4 vs. DAL (Home) | Week 5 at TEN (Road)

Green Bay Packers

Buy Christian Watson

One of the wildest fourth-quarter collapses in Week 1. Green Bay led 22-10 after three quarters and 22-17 into the fourth quarter, but Minnesota scored 22 unanswered points in the final period to win 39-22 — fueled almost entirely by three separate Green Bay giveaways/failures in Vikings territory.

A Green Bay interception in the end zone was wiped off the board by Green Bay’s own penalty, and Minnesota scored a touchdown two plays later. In the fourth quarter, Wentz’s pass intended for Jordan Addison was intercepted by Evan Williams and returned 17 yards — but a defensive holding penalty on Xavier McKinney was enforced, erasing the interception and handing Minnesota a fresh 1st-and-goal at the Packers’ 3-yard line instead of a turnover. Aaron Jones scored from there two plays later, and the ensuing two-point conversion gave Minnesota its first lead of the game (25-22)

A Green Bay field goal was also nullified by a penalty, resulting in an unusual outcome — it cost Green Bay points instead of earning them. A made 40-yard Trey Smack field goal in the fourth quarter was wiped out by a defensive offside penalty on Minnesota’s Dallas Turner, giving Green Bay a fresh set of downs instead of the three points — Green Bay went for it and was stuffed for no gain, turning a would-be field goal into zero points on the possession.

Christian Watson had the signature play of the game and a genuinely explosive overall day — 6 catches on 8 targets for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns, including an 81-yard score on Green Bay’s first offensive touchdown of the day. Watson caught 4 of his 5 targets for 131 yards and two touchdowns on vertical routes against the Vikings.

In 10 games last season, Watson caught just 6 receptions for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns on vertical routes. Watson reached a top speed of 21.09 miles per hour (MPH) on his 81-yard touchdown, the fourth-fastest top speed of his career. According to NGS, Watson became the first Packers wide receiver with 100+ receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single game since his performance against Dallas in Week 10 of the 2022 season.

Christian WR1SZN.

Matthew Golden‘s team-high 12 targets came with modest per-target efficiency (6 catches, 95 yards). He had the clear true No. 1 WR role: 28.6% target share, 82% snap share and 87.0% route participation — all top among Packers pass-catchers. Plus, Golden recorded team-high marks of 3 red-zone and 2 end-zone targets.

Jayden Reed was back to his capped rotational role: 7 targets (16.7% share) on a 57% snap share, but shallow usage underneath (6.2 aDOT, 9.7% air yard share, 1 red-zone target). We know he’s talented, but the part-time role doesn’t boost his fantasy value.

Should note that offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich mentioned he wanted to get Reed more involved, so in Week 2 we could see more designed looks his way.

Tucker Kraft commanded 6 targets (14.3% share) on a 66% snap share, but zero red-zone or end-zone targets and a modest 11.6 aDOT. But he looked healthy coming back from his 2025 mid-season ACL injury. Only 3 catches, but they went for 65 yards (north of 20 yards per reception). Expect Kraft to ramp up as the season progresses, given that he was not in his typical full-time role. Even though he was fourth in overall targets, Kraft commanded a high 27% target rate per route run. Kraft never played fewer than 66% of the snaps in any game he played through the first eight weeks of the 2025 season before his injury.

The backfield in Green Bay didn’t belong to MarShawn Lloyd as I had thought heading into Week 1. Chris Brooks led the backfield with a 56% snap rate, compared to Lloyd’s 44%. The touch distribution was less of a split. Lloyd touted the rock 13 times for 37 yards (with a few explosive rushes) versus Brooks’ 7 carries for 29 yards. (Each saw one target).

Neither back for the Packers was particularly effective given the Packers’ offensive line played poorly against the Vikings’ front four.

The Jets should be a softer matchup, but not if the Packers can’t create space up front. Lloyd is nothing more than an RB3/FLEX option for Week 2.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at NYJ (Road) | Week 3 vs. ATL (Home) | Week 4 at TB (Road) | Week 5 vs. CHI (Home)

New York Jets

Add Braelon Allen

Big win for Gang Green. It was a total lopsided matchup. Per NGS, the Jets outgained the Titans by 172 yards — their best Week 1 margin in total yards since 2014, when they outgained the Raiders by 244 yards.

Geno Smith was excellent targeting receivers aligned out wide. He completed 8 of 9 such attempts for 133 yards, with Garrett Wilson going 5-for-5 for 73 yards and Adonai Mitchell catching all 3 of his wide-alignment targets for 60 yards. By route type, Wilson caught all 4 of his in-breaking-route targets for 69 yards — his highest mark since 2024 — while Mitchell’s 2 out-breaking-route targets went for a career-high 58 yards.

The third-year receiver’s box score (3-3-60) undersells his true per-target explosiveness — a 19.6 aDOT points to a downfield, big-play role rather than a high-floor, possession role. Mitchell’s 91.7% route participation (tied with Wilson) on a smaller 67% snap share points to a low-volume, high-ceiling complementary piece worth buying into for target growth as his route diet expands.

Meanwhile, Wilson was the clear-cut alpha receiver for the Jets. Officially 7 targets (29.2%), but a 10-yard DPI and a 4-yard completion erased by New York’s own illegal formation add 2 more for 9 true targets and a 35% adjusted target share, well ahead of the rest of the Jets’ offense.

New York leaned unusually heavily on under-center rushing, running from under center on 69.4% of called runs — their highest rate under head coach Aaron Glenn — good for 25 of 36 called runs, 115 yards and both of the team’s rushing touchdowns. Breece Hall led the way with 17 under-center carries for 85 yards and a touchdown, including 3 explosive runs (10+ yards), tied for a career high. He finished the day with 102 yards on the ground on 22 total carries (24 total touches for 118 yards from scrimmage). Hall’s receiving work was negligible — a true 2 targets (7.7% adjusted target share). Only 10 routes run.

The backfield split was wider than the touch totals alone suggest. Hall’s 58% snap share is slightly short of a true every-down number, with Braelon Allen mixed in on 40% of snaps — but Hall dominated the goal-line role (one goal-line attempt and four red-zone carries).

Even so… a real touchdown was wiped off the board, and it cost New York real points. Allen’s 23-yard touchdown run in the third quarter on a 4th-and-1 play was nullified by an offensive holding penalty on lineman Josh Myers, a foul entirely unrelated to Allen’s own run. The drive still produced points, but only a 51-yard field goal instead of a touchdown — a direct, quantifiable four-point cost. Allen will always be somewhat of a threat to Hall in the red zone, but Week 1 suggests that it won’t be as bad as Seattle’s backfield was last season.

Rookie first-rounder Kenyon Sadiq scored New York’s other rushing touchdown; notable gadget/goal-line usage out of the tight end spot and a red-zone conversion worth flagging for anytime-touchdown tracking.

Otherwise, the Oregon product was limited as a receiver: 3 targets (12.5% target share), a -0.1 aDOT, 0% air-yard share. That screams checkdown/gadget role, not a downfield threat. Hard to rely on given he ran fewer routes than Mason Taylor. Sadiq was out-snapped by both Taylor and Jeremy Ruckert.

Fellow first-round pick, wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., ran one route. But he was targeted on that play and turned it into a 30-yard gain. Have to imagine his role grows as a result. Isaiah Williams logged real route volume and playing time (61.9% snap share, 83.3% route participation) but had almost no target competition (1 target). But alas, Cooper’s time to shine will have to wait. He suffered an ankle sprain and will be week-to-week.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. GB (Home) | Week 3 at DET (Road) | Week 4 at CHI (Road) | Week 5 vs. CLE (Home)

New Orleans Saints

Add Tyler Shough & Sell Travis Etienne Jr.

One of the wildest comeback stories in Week 1. Detroit led 21-0 through three quarters before New Orleans scored on three straight possessions (a rushing touchdown, then two passing touchdowns) to tie it 24-24 at the end of regulation, force overtime and very nearly win it outright — only a failed two-point conversion after New Orleans’ overtime touchdown kept Detroit’s 31-30 win intact.

Two separate replay reversals — not penalties — were arguably the two biggest plays of the game, and both briefly wiped out New Orleans’ defensive/turnover advantages, though the second ultimately still worked in New Orleans’ favor:

1. In the second quarter, a Jared Goff strip-sack fumble was originally recovered by New Orleans’ Jonas Sanker for what was ruled a touchdown on the field. On review, it was overturned to a simple incomplete pass, erasing the sack, the fumble and the touchdown entirely (Detroit’s drive continued instead of losing seven points off the board… to New Orleans).
2. Minutes later, a Jahmyr Gibbs catch-and-run was originally ruled down by contact for a 4-yard gain — New Orleans challenged, and it was reversed to a fumble, which New Orleans recovered.

Second-year quarterback Tyler Shough‘s game was a genuine tale of two halves, and NGS quantifies exactly how extreme the split was. Through three quarters, he was 18-of-28 for 179 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions and a 55.0 passer rating. In the fourth quarter and overtime alone, he went 17-of-23 for 231 yards, 2 touchdowns and a 134.5 passer rating. Only one player in the entire 2025 season had a bigger fourth-quarter/overtime passing-yardage game than Shough’s Week 1 (Josh Allen‘s 251 yards in Week 1 versus Baltimore).

The turnaround tracked directly with blitz handling (2-of-7, 17 yards, an interception and a sack-fumble vs. the blitz in the first half; 8-of-11, 79 yards, 3 touchdowns vs. the blitz after) and downfield aggression — 11-of-16 for 261 yards and a touchdown on throws of 10+ air yards in the surge, the most such yards by a Saints signal-caller since Drew Brees in Week 6, 2016.

Shough can be added off waivers if you need a quarterback streamer… but note that the Ravens on the road aren’t nearly the same kind of smash spot that Detroit offered in Week 1. And the fact that Shough was so poor at the start of the game does raise his bust level considerably. Jesse Minter’s defensive schemes are no joke.

Free-agent running back acquisition Travis Etienne Jr. (9 carries) was the clear receiving back in a run-game committee with Kendre Miller (9 carries) and rookie CJ Donaldson (2 carries) — no standalone workhorse here. Donaldson saw some work in short-yardage situations.

Etienne’s 7 catches on a true 11 targets (9 official, plus 2 erased by penalty — an illegal-contact extension of a two-minute drill and a zero-value target erased by illegal use of hands) gave him an 18.6% adjusted target share, second among Saints pass-catchers behind Chris Olave (41% target rate).

But the real concern was no red-zone or goal-line touches logged for him — a solid PPR floor via check-down volume, but a capped ceiling with a standalone touchdown role established. This is extremely concerning for Etienne’s long-term outlook given that he has not been effective in the red zone over the last two seasons — and his receiving usage could take a hit when Alvin Kamara returns.

All in all, a disappointing debut for the former Jaguars running back. His best carry of the game (18 yards) came on a draw play with less than 30 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Without that rush, Etienne would have finished the game with 8 carries for 28 yards (3.5 yards per carry).

Miller operated as a change-of-pace role behind Etienne (9 carries, 0 targets), and produced a red-zone conversion (an 8-yard touchdown run).

The box score doesn’t completely capture Devaughn Vele‘s impact in Week 1. The box score (7-9-69-1) undersells the role: 90.7% snap share and 85.2% route participation are both team highs among Saints pass-catchers (ahead of Olave, who missed some time with an injury), and his true 10 targets (9 official plus a deep shot erased by DPI) included 1 end-zone target and 1 red-zone target for a 17% adjusted share.

Vele’s touchdown wasn’t a fluke — the erased DPI target came on the snap immediately before the score, a real near-miss-then-convert red-zone sequence on the same drive.

Vele was getting hyped during the offseason, but it cooled after the team selected Jordyn Tyson in the first round. However, it was clear from the get-go that he was the No. 2 pass-game option behind Olave in Week 1.

I had Olave as a top-five fantasy wideout in Week 1, and he delivered big time. The former Ohio State Buckeye set a career-high 182 receiving yards on a team-high true 13 targets (22.0% adjusted share). It did come with zero touchdowns — and the shape of the usage explains why: An 18.6 aDOT and team-high 48.7% air yard share point to almost entirely big-play/intermediate production, with just 1 red-zone target and 0 end-zone targets logged.

The volume is unambiguous, so this reads as a positive-touchdown-regression candidate rather than any concern about his role — a name to buy into for scoring upside even off a “quiet” (in touchdown terms) Week 1.

Juwan Johnson had a much shakier Week 1. I was also really high on his prospects, and not just in Week 1. That, however, did not come to fruition until very late in the game. He was a complete non-factor until late in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Overall, the Saints’ hybrid wide receiver/tight end logged 7 true targets (11.9% adjusted share). But his 3 red-zone targets were the second-most of any player in the game, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s 4, and he converted one into a touchdown.

Johnson had a real, touchdown-relevant role for a tight end, even on modest overall volume, backed by a heavy 83.7% snap share. The issue with Johnson was that he was losing out on targets to Vele and Noah Fant.

Fant had a limited-snap role (43.0% snap share, just 29.5% route participation against a 14.3% target share) but still produced the overtime-tying touchdown on a true 8 targets, including 1 end-zone target — an efficient, low-volume piece rather than an every-down one. The following two-point try went to Bryce Lance (incomplete), not Fant. However, Fant’s 45% target rate per route run did lead the Saints in Week 1.

Speaking of Lance… he was clearly the No. 3WR on the offense. He ran real routes (67.4% snap share, 67.2% route participation) just without real volume — 3 official targets/4 true targets (6.8% adjusted share) — and was the intended target on the potential game-winning two-point conversion after Fant’s overtime score. The two-point look is worth remembering if usage trends in his direction again. Also worth noting that he did catch the key fourth-down conversion that kept the Saints’ drive alive late.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at BAL (Road) | Week 3 vs. LV (Home) | Week 4 vs. ATL (Home) | Week 5 vs. MIN (Home)

Baltimore Ravens

Add Rashod Bateman

Baltimore controlled Week 1 from the opening minutes — a 31-13 halftime lead ballooned to 41-16 through three quarters before Indianapolis scored a late, garbage-time-adjacent touchdown. Along the way, there was a nullified Ravens touchdown, a forced-and-recovered Colts fumble, a Ravens sack-fumble turnover of their own and a DPI-fueled Colts scoring drive — a busier book than the final score alone suggests.

Two turnovers, one each way. Baltimore’s Marlon Humphrey forced and recovered his own fumble on a Jonathan Taylor catch-and-run; later, Lamar Jackson was sacked and stripped, with the ball recovered by Indianapolis’ DeForest Buckner, setting up a short-field Colts touchdown drive.

Trey Hendrickson‘s pass rush was a story in itself — Baltimore’s pressure rate swung from 58.6% (2 sacks) with him on the field to just 20.0% (0 sacks) without him, and all 8 of his pressures came against Colts left tackle Bernhard Raimann across 21 individual matchups.

A real touchdown was also wiped off the board. Rookie wideout Jakobi Lane caught a 4-yard touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson in the second quarter, but the touchdown was nullified by an offensive holding penalty on an offensive lineman — a foul entirely unrelated to Lane’s catch. Baltimore turned the ball over on downs at the Indianapolis 3-yard line two plays later.

Really poor runout for Lane — who, by all accounts, was having a breakout training camp. He will now miss time after suffering a fractured wrist. I’d expect fourth-round rookie wide receiver Elijah Sarratt to be active next week.

Rashod Bateman‘s box score (1 target, 0 catches, 0 yards) badly understates his game. He actually hauled in a real 19-yard catch on a separate drive that was wiped out by an unrelated holding penalty — his true line is 2 targets, 1 catch, 19 yards.

Bateman’s 96.3% route-participation rate is the highest among Baltimore pass-catchers, and his 79.7% snap share confirms he was a full-time piece on the field all game. Minter mentioned that big days are still ahead for Bateman even after an empty box score in Week 1.

Zay Flowers had a monster half and then left the game. He caught 5 of 6 targets for a career-high 150 yards and a touchdown — all in the first half — before exiting at halftime with a hamstring injury and did not return.

Most of Flowers’ production came away from Sauce Gardner, including 67 yards on two catches against rookie corner Justin Walley. His true adjusted target share (21.4%) and box score are otherwise aligned — no target volume was hidden here, unlike several of his teammates. He’s worth tracking closely for next week, given how much of the box score he was responsible for — monitor his hamstring status before locking in his Week 2 role.

Minter has labeled Flowers as day-to-day. Adam Schefter reported it’s probably unrealistic to expect him in Week 2. As a heavy Flowers investor, I’d rather he take extra time to get back to 100% than risk re-injury.

Gardner completely blanketed Flowers when matched up on him, playing man coverage at a career-high 67.7% rate and holding Flowers to 1 catch for 12 yards on his only two targets of the day.

Lamar Jackson‘s box score (17-of-25, 324 yards, 1 passing touchdown, plus a 5-yard rushing touchdown) undersells the day — a second passing touchdown (to Lane) was actually scored and then wiped out by penalty. His play-action work (7-of-8, 128 yards, 16.0 yards per attempt) was the third-best qualifying game of his career by that measure. He was also strip-sacked.

Derrick Henry made all the haters eat it once again (including me; shout-out to Fitz for having Henry ranked higher in the Week 1 rankings show), and he finished with 24 carries for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns (4, 32, 3 yards).

Mark Andrews was Baltimore’s true target-share leader (25% adjusted, tied for the team high) once his 11-yard catch, erased by an Illegal Shift penalty, is counted — officially 6-4-49-0, but a true 7 targets. His 77.8% route participation and a 70.3% snap share confirm a full-time role, even though the box score reads as modest (4-49).

One red-zone target logged, no end-zone looks — a solid, high-floor complementary piece rather than a true focal point. But without Lane and now Flowers… Andrews is going to be out there. Even if he’s cooked, he can still fall into the end zone and score.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. NO (Home) | Week 3 at DAL (Neutral – Rio de Janeiro) | Week 4 vs. TEN (Home) | Week 5 at ATL (Road)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Add Pat Freiermuth & Hold DK Metcalf

Aaron Rodgers‘ day was a study in two very different efficiency profiles. His 9.2 air yards per target were the most he’s recorded as a Steeler, and his 2.95-second average time-to-throw was his third-highest in a game with Pittsburgh — but his efficiency dropped hard as he pushed the ball downfield: 20-of-24 (83.3%) on throws under 10 air yards versus just 4-of-12 (33.3%) for 73 yards and a touchdown on throws of 10+ air yards.

DK Metcalf‘s own penalty wiped out his longest gain of the day. A 19-yard catch in the final minute of the first half was erased by his own offensive pass interference call — a self-inflicted negation. Still, Metcalf was the clear volume leader. 11 true targets, 25.6% adjusted target share, 93.0% route participation and 151 incomplete air yards on a team-high 60 snaps, including Pittsburgh’s only end-zone target of the week — but he caught just 4 of his 10 official targets for 40 yards, and his own offensive pass interference wiped out his longest gain (a 19-yard catch). The role is a true WR1 signal, even though the per-target efficiency was rough; treat this week’s box score as an outlier given the underlying volume. The production will come especially if the Steelers remain willing to throw the ball downfield.

But hard not to be disappointed with Metcalf’s lack of efficiency/production given that Michael Pittman Jr. out-gained him on significantly less volume. The former Colts WR’s snap share well exceeded his target share — only 3 official/true targets (7.0% adjusted share).

Still, given all the reports about Metcalf being the No. 1 guy for Pittsburgh…volume will continue coming his way. That being said… he does have a challenging stretch of projected No. 1 CBs over the next month with the Steelers’ schedule.

More of a reason to buy into some of the other Pittsburgh pass-catchers, with Metcalf garnering more attention from defenses.

Roman Wilson had a real 37-yard opportunity wiped out by a defensive pass interference call on an incomplete deep target. 54.7% snap share, 58.1% route participation, but a game-high-adjacent 20.0 aDOT. True targets came in at 7 (6 official + 1 erased by DPI on a 37-yard deep shot), a 16.3% adjusted target share.

The Steelers backfield was a muddled committee, without a clear lead back. Rico Dowdle logged the higher snap share (57.8% vs. Jaylen Warren‘s 35.9%), but Warren actually out-touched him on paper (10 carries and a true 6 targets vs. Dowdle’s 8 carries and a true 5 targets) — snaps and usage are pointing in different directions, so neither back should be trusted as a lead option into Week 2. It’s what was supposed to be expected – a true 50/50 split.

Freiermuth posted an efficient scoring-area role, going a perfect 5-for-5 on targets (5 true targets, 11.6% adjusted share) for the touchdown, with 1 end-zone target and 2 red-zone targets logged — real goal-line involvement to match the target volume.

The low 5.4 aDOT confirms this is a short-area, high-floor role rather than a big-play one — a reliable possession/touchdown-equity option as long as Rodgers keeps operating underneath.

Freiermuth also played clearly ahead of Darnell Washington, more than doubling his routes (31 versus 15).

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at NE (Road) | Week 3 vs. CIN (Home) | Week 4 at CLE (Road) | Week 5 vs. IND (Home)

New England Patriots

Add Mack Hollins

New England was without second-year RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) all game, which directly explains Rhamondre Stevenson‘s expanded workload. 23 touches, 18 carries for 51 yards (85% snap share). Including 5 catches for 44 yards on six targets.

Expect volume to come back down once Henderson is healthy; monitor his Week 2 status before treating Stevenson as an every-week bell-cow. Henderson returned to practice ahead of Week 2.

Would expect Henderson to step into a substantial role immediately, especially if Stevenson looks as slow as he did in the opener (22% rushing success rate, -0.51 EPA/rush).

A.J. Brown exited with an ankle injury in the third quarter and was later downgraded to out in the fourth quarter. Subsequently, he was placed on IR and will miss the next four weeks with a high ankle sprain.

Very much contemplating buying low on AJB 100% across the board and just living with the consequences of my actions of trading for an older WR coming off a notoriously bad injury that lingers.

But man…what a comeback story it would be???? https://t.co/nIcpSqclZO

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 11, 2026

Brown was dominating the looks in the offense prior to his departure (4 targets with a long DPI that set up an Eli Raridon red-zone touchdown catch). In the aftermath, we saw bumps in usage for guys like Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs, the latter of whom barely played before Brown’s injury.

While Doubs was dropping passes, Hollins stepped up big time. The journeyman wideout — not the guy the Patriots paid for in free agency — drew 4 targets after Brown left, the most of any NE receiver in that span, en route to a game total of 5 targets (15.2% / 14.7% adjusted). He was also the only other NE pass-catcher besides Raridon with a logged end-zone/red-zone target (1 each).

Back to Doubs. Woof. Terrible game.

Zero catches on 3 targets (one intercepted); looks like nothing happened. But nothing would have been better than his negative contributions.

Hollins clearly has his quarterback’s trust. Doubs? That remains to be seen. Keep in mind Hollins was playing ahead of Doubs even before A.J. Brown‘s injury.

#Patriots wide receiver snap counts in the first half:

Brown – 26
Hollins – 17
Douglas – 15
Doubs – 12

New England favoring Hollins over Doubs in 12 personnel.

— Evan Lazar (@ezlazar) September 10, 2026

Part of that was 12-personnel-based, but Hollins’ versatility should also allow him to play a full-time role in 12 personnel without Brown (given how much more involved he was in the second half of Week 1). Would hardly be the first time the Patriots draft or sign a wideout with high-end capital just to feature another player on their roster.

DeMario Douglas posted the team-leading volume among New England’s healthy pass-catchers: 7 targets (21.2% / 20.6% adjusted), on a team-high 32 routes and 88.9% route participation. But a 4.0 aDOT (the lowest on the team) and zero red-zone/end-zone targets mark this as pure underneath/checkdown/slot usage.

Hunter Henry was quiet across the board: 3 targets (9.1% / 8.8% adjusted) and zero red-zone looks.

Rookie Eli Raridon popped with the first score of the 2026 season, but didn’t do much after that. 53.7% snap share, but routes run on only 22.2% of those snaps. His lone target was the touchdown, manufactured almost entirely by Brown’s DPI, who moved the ball to the 2-yard line on the previous play.

New England won time of possession (34:17-25:43) despite trailing in total net yards (277 to Seattle’s 285). They turned it over 3 times in the fourth quarter alone (all Drake Maye interceptions). That collapse is the headline team-level story of the loss despite facing a backup quarterback.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. PIT (Home) | Week 3 at JAX (Road) | Week 4 at BUF (Road) | Week 5 vs. LV (Home)

Cleveland Browns

Add Denzel Boston & Sell Quinshon Judkins

Per NGS, this was the Browns’ worst season-opening loss since 2020, and head coach Todd Monken became the 15th straight Browns head coach (including interims) to lose in his debut with the team — the longest such streak in NFL history.

Cleveland’s offense was defined as much by negated production as by anything else. A Deshaun Watson-to-Isaiah Bond target was wiped out by a holding penalty from Zion Johnson and doesn’t appear anywhere in the box score. Even so a terrible day for the Browns QB other than his fourth-quarter touchdown toss to second-rounder Denzel Boston).

Watson’s final line (16-of-22, 205 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception) came despite Cleveland’s defense — not his opponent — barely blitzing (12.0%). Real offensive line dysfunction (two erased scrambles, one for 9 yards) means his true rushing work was a touch higher than the box score shows, but hardly enough to move the needle.

The Browns quarterback benefited from a genuine replay reversal on a fourth-quarter 4th-and-6 scramble (ruled a fumble/turnover on the field, overturned to down-by-contact) that kept a drive alive. Ultimately a moot play, since Cleveland took consecutive sacks and turned it over on downs two plays later anyway.

The Browns’ backfield is an early-down/passing-down split, not a true committee: Quinshon Judkins owns the early-down/carry work (67.3% snap share, 12 carries), while Raheim Sanders is the passing-down complement (just 32.7% of snaps but more targets than Judkins, 3 to 2). We will need to track whether that receiving-work edge for Sanders holds as a real signal into Week 2. Dylan Sampson left this game with an injury.

Browns RB Dylan Sampson is expected to miss significant time due to the knee injury suffered Sunday in Jacksonville, per sources.

Sampson was spotted on crutches after the game. pic.twitter.com/CCJFq4GyDj

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) September 15, 2026

Judkins had a light receiving role — only 2 true targets (8.7% adjusted target share) and no red-zone/goal-line work. It was a tough spot for him, and he struggled immensely. Can’t say we should expect different results in Week 2 versus a fierce front seven for Tampa Bay.

Denzel Boston‘s box score (4 targets, 2 catches, 59 yards, Cleveland’s only touchdown) actually undersells a legitimate big-play role: A game-leading 29.1 aDOT, 48.7% air-yard share and 96.3% route participation on a near-every-snap workload (93.9%). Impressive for a rookie wideout to see this much work out of the gate (attached to Watson no less).

Still, he wasn’t the most targeted rookie receiver for the Browns – KC Concepcion actually led Cleveland in targets both officially and adjusted (5, 22%) despite a lower snap share (69.4%) than Boston or tight end Harold Fannin Jr. Functionally, he was the team’s most-targeted option, working a shorter/intermediate area (13.2 aDOT) than Boston’s downfield role.

Fannin posted a high floor in snaps and routes (81.6% snap share, 74.1% route participation) but a shallow target profile (3 targets, only a 3.2 aDOT and 4.2% air-yard share) limited his Week 1 upside. The rookies the Browns drafted are negatively impacting his target share. At least he should see more volume against Tampa Bay, who just gave up a boatload of production to Mike Gesicki.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at TB (Road) | Week 3 vs. CAR (Home) | Week 4 vs. PIT (Home) | Week 5 at NYJ (Road)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy Bucky Irving

The headline from Buccaneers-Bengals was Tampa Bay’s turnover problem, not a major talent gap. The Buccaneers lost all four of their fumbles — quarterback Baker Mayfield alone was responsible for two of them (a strip-sack recovered for a Cincinnati touchdown in the first quarter, and a scramble-strip late in the second quarter that resulted in a touchback while Tampa Bay was sitting at the Bengals’ 4-yard line).

On top of that, Tampa Bay avoided a fifth turnover only on a penalty — a Mayfield target to Emeka Egbuka was intercepted by Tacario Davis, but the interception was wiped out by a defensive pass interference call. None of this shows up as a talent or usage problem in the underlying numbers; it’s specifically what turned a competitive, back-and-forth yardage battle (Tampa Bay actually had a stretch of real offensive success) into a six-point final margin.ay

Still, the Bengals’ defense showed some signs of improvement compared to last year. Cincinnati’s defense generated a 38.9% pressure rate on Mayfield, forcing 2 of the game’s turnovers directly off pressure, and their 4 fumble recoveries were worth +22.5 EPA and +38.7% win probability on their own — a huge share of the game’s outcome traced to that single category.

Now, to be fair… each team scored exactly one non-offensive touchdown. Cincinnati’s Demetrius Knight returned Mayfield’s first-quarter fumble 27 yards for a score; Tampa Bay’s Josiah Trotter returned a Burrow interception 38 yards for a score in the third quarter. Hence… we hit the over.

Mayfield threw almost exclusively short: 4.7 air yards per attempt (4th-fewest in the league this week), 2.0 air yards per completion (his 3rd-fewest career game) and completed all 12 of his behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws — 18-of-19 under 10 air yards for 134 yards, just 5-of-8 over 10 air yards for 82 yards. Given the pressure he faced, this reads as game-plan-driven rather than a talent ceiling.

Rushing floor is real and secondary-scoring-relevant: 5 carries, 30 yards, and a 9-yard broken-pocket scrambling touchdown — a legitimate short-yardage/goal-line scoring threat separate from his passing line.

The Buccaneers’ backfield hierarchy was clean: Irving is the every-down back; Gainwell the change-of-pace/passing-down piece — no committee ambiguity here.

Irving was the clear dual-threat workhorse: 61.5% snap share, a team-high 7 targets (all caught for 48 yards, though he did lose one on a fumble), plus 8 carries for 45 yards and a red-zone rushing touchdown. His target volume tracks directly with Mayfield’s checkdown-heavy plan, so don’t read it as a standalone role signal in isolation — but the snap share and touch volume back it up as a real three-down role either way. He was also very efficient as a rusher (similar to his rookie and pre-injury sophomore campaign), rushing 8 times for 45 yards.

Also had a 5-yard gain into red-zone-adjacent territory wiped out by a defensive penalty before the drive stalled two plays later on Mayfield’s fumble/touchback — a real, moderate opportunity erased, reinforcing that his role near the goal line is more than just the one scored carry. This was a pain point for fantasy managers all year with Irving… but it appears he can and will be used in the red zone.

Gainwell was in the backup role at a 46.2% snap share. His true target count is 2, not 1 — the box score misses a real, executed fourth-down conversion catch that was wiped out and then awarded by penalty instead. Adjusted target share (6.7%) trailed Irving badly; treat him as a change-of-pace back, not a standalone streamer.

Emeka Egbuka‘s underwhelming box score (5-63) undersells the role: 96.9% route participation and a team-high 65.6% air yard share (13.8 aDOT) point to a real downfield role behind Irving’s short-area volume. True targets are 7, not 6 — but that 7th target was a near-disaster: A pass that was nearly intercepted, saved only by a DPI call.

Cade Otton did what he always does. Plays nearly all snaps with no production to speak of — 98.1% snap share, 93.8% route participation, and 2 red-zone targets — ahead of both Egbuka and Godwin on that specific measure, despite a low 4.8 aDOT. A real, sticky tight end red-zone role worth valuing even on quiet box-score weeks.

Chris Godwin was on the field every snap, with a 100% route participation rate and 84.6% snap share, but the usage was almost entirely horizontal — 0.2 aDOT and just a 0.8% air yard share on 4 targets (4 catches for 40 yards).

Rookie Ted Hurst only earned 3 targets, but he’s a real vertical threat and a full-time role player: 90.6% route participation, an 11.4 aDOT and a 26.9% air yard share — a legitimate deep-ball complement if his target share climbs. Worth a speculative watch if Jalen McMillan remains sidelined.

Tez Johnson had a situational, high-leverage-only role (18.8% route participation, just 1 target) — but that lone target was an end-zone target that also counted as a red-zone target. Small sample, but exactly the kind of hidden-touchdown-equity signal worth a deep-league watch-list flag and/or a long-shot anytime/first-touchdown bet.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. CLE (Home) | Week 3 vs. MIN (Home) | Week 4 vs. GB (Home) | Week 5 at DAL (Road)

Carolina Panthers

Sell Chuba Hubbard

Two fully executed, whistled touchdowns were wiped off the board for the Panthers in Week 1. Darren Waller‘s 1-yard touchdown catch was nullified by his own offensive pass interference, while Mitchell Evans‘ 1-yard touchdown catch was wiped out by Jalen Coker‘s penalty.

Coker and Tetairoa McMillan both played true, every-down No. 1 WR-caliber routes (87.1% and a team-high 90.0% route participation, respectively). Coker scored the touchdowns (a 51-yard bomb and an 8-yard red-zone score on a team-high 9 targets) while McMillan’s real volume (8 targets, 75 yards) came up empty on scores, making him a clean positive-regression buy, should he find the end zone in Week 2.

Still, what Coker did in Week 1 should not be ignored. Again: Team-high 9 targets (23.7%/22.0% adjusted) and 2 touchdowns that came two different ways — a 51-yard field-stretching shot and an 8-yard red-zone underneath score — on an 87.1% route-participation rate.

That dual big-play/red-zone usage profile is exactly what supports weekly touchdown equity going forward. Unfortunately for Coker, he was seen in a boot after the game (ankle injury), though he does not expect to miss any time. Proceed cautiously, given that he has a history of injuries two years into his NFL career. But one week in, I am definitely eating crow after pouring cold water on a Tera/DBro joint bold prediction that Coker would outscore McMillan in 2026. Let the record show I like both, but clearly the average draft position (ADP) gap was too large this offseason. Great call by my colleagues.

Chuba Hubbard was Carolina’s unambiguous goal-line/short-yardage back, and the box score undersells it. Look away, Jonathon Brooks-stans. Beyond Hubbard’s 2 official touchdowns (one rush, one catch), he had a completed red-zone reception (erased by an illegal use of hands penalty on Chicago) and a goal-line carry (erased by Carolina’s own illegal shift), both wiped out on the same drive — a true 4-touch red-zone game, on a 70% snap share well above committee-back level. He finished the day with 10 carries for 49 yards. Hubbad recorded 13 total touches for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns. Through the air, he had 3 targets, 3 catches, 38 yards and 1 touchdown.

Brooks was the change-of-pace back behind Hubbard: 19.4% snap share, 4 carries, 2 targets. Not a standalone fantasy play unless Hubbard’s role changes. But I expect Brooks’ role to grow, as he was dealing with an injury leading up to Week 1 that might have limited his role.

The third-year back caught a wheel route for nearly 50 yards, showcasing how dangerous he can be as a receiver in Week 1.

I think the backfield gap between Hubbard and Brooks will close as the season progresses. If you can cash out after the 2-touchdown performance (or flip Hubbard for Brooks straight up), that’s the move I’d like to make.

A Jimmy Horn muffed punt and a blocked extra-point attempt (the only missed kick of the game for either side) gave Chicago extra scoring chances, and Chicago recovered Carolina’s desperation onside kick down 52-31 to seal it.

Tommy Tremble was in a solid No. 2 TE-type role: 5 targets (13.2%/12.2% adjusted) on a 56.5% snap share, though a modest 4.7 aDOT and 40.0% route participation.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at ATL (Road) | Week 3 at CLE (Road) | Week 4 vs. DET (Home) | Week 5 – BYE

Atlanta Falcons

Buy Drake London & Sell Kyle Pitts

Bijan Robinson delivered an elite, three-down bell-cow back performance in Week 1, and the final score doesn’t reflect how much he was actually used. A career-high 65.9% touch rate (29 of 44 snaps) plus 12 forced missed tackles (tying his career high, 80% of the team’s total) is about as complete a workhorse day as you will find in an NFL backfield.

Robinson had 21 carries and a true 10 targets. His 41.7% adjusted target share was easily the team’s largest offensive workload, capped by an 8-catch, 90-yard, 1-touchdown receiving line. Cooper Rush loves to check the ball down.

The consensus 1.02 in drafts, his 77% snap share is the one number that looks light next to that touch rate — Brian Robinson Jr. (25% snaps, 9 carries, 0 targets) soaked up pure early-down relief work — but the touch and target concentration is all about the team’s No. 1 RB.

Rush’s protection/pocket-time issue is the bigger concern. Zero completions when pressured and a collapse to 6-of-14 for 83 yards and both interceptions once plays extended past 2.5 seconds — versus a clean 6-of-8 for 60 yards and a touchdown on quick throws — points to a protection or play-design problem that should temper passing-game expectations for every Falcons pass-catcher until it’s fixed — in the form of Michael Penix Jr. under center.

Rush went 12-of-22 for 143 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, but NGS shows the real story is pocket time, not accuracy — again, a 0% completion rate under pressure. Both interceptions came on those extended-time throws, including the game-deciding pick-six off a short that T.J. Watt read and returned 35 yards to the house. The fact that the Steelers needed a pick-six to beat the Falcons at home is alarming in itself.

The Atlanta passing-game pecking order remained concentrated (good) but light on sheer volume (bad).

Dead last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (-17.3%) in Week 1? The Atlanta Falcons.

Drake London is and remains the unquestioned No. 1 WR by role, Jahan Dotson is a low-volume cardio king and Kyle Pitts barely registered as a target. Classic Pitts not drawing targets whenever London is active.

According to FantasyPros’ With or Without You Tool, Pitts averages nearly 7.7 fewer points per game (PPG) with London since 2023. Just 5 targets per game. Pitts also averaged fewer PPG with Penix at quarterback (6.4 PPG).

The Falcons tight end is unplayable under the current quarterback room. Hoping that Tua Tagovailoa will save Pitts is not a prayer.

Pitts also had fringe usage in Week 1: 63.2% snap share (32nd among tight ends in Week 1). His 80.8% route participation produced only two true targets (1 official + 1 zero-value target erased by Atlanta’s own holding) and he had an 8.3% adjusted target share. High route involvement without target follow-through suggests a decoy role more than a passing-game priority right now.

London owns the Atlanta No. 1 WR role, with a 98.2% snap share and a team-high 92.3% route participation. True targets came in at 5 (4 official + 1 erased by Atlanta’s own holding on an 8-yard catch), a 20.8% adjusted target share — the clear top mark on the team. Production was bad (2 catches for 29 yards), but there’s hope at the end of the tunnel in Penix. Buy low on London before he gets his QB1 back under center.

In his first 14 games played with Penix over the last two seasons, London was nearly eclipsing 20 fantasy PPG in full PPR (nearly 92 receiving yards and 11 targets per game). Elite-level numbers.

Also, as an injury note, Falcons offensive lineman Chris Lindstrom is in the concussion protocol.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. CAR (Home) | Week 3 at GB (Road) | Week 4 at NO (Road) | Week 5 vs. BAL (Home)

Philadelphia Eagles

No Recommended Moves to Make

Jalen Hurts was excellent throwing downfield: 6-of-9 for 176 yards and 3 touchdowns on throws of 10+ air yards, the eighth-highest yardage total of his career on such throws, and just the sixth time he’s thrown 3+ downfield touchdowns in a game.

Hurts was most effective targeting receivers aligned wide (7-of-9, 118 yards, 1 touchdown), and when working between the numbers, he was outstanding specifically to Dallas Goedert in the seam (3-of-4, 65 yards, 2 touchdowns) versus a pedestrian 4-of-6 for just 1 yard to every other receiver in that area.

Zack Baun had one of the best coverage days a linebacker can have. Per NGS, he was targeted 6 times and allowed just 3 receptions for -2 yards, adding 2 passes defensed — one of only two defenders since the start of last season (alongside Denzel Ward) to face 5+ targets in a game and allow negative receiving yardage. He also added 10 run-defense tackles (including one behind the line of scrimmage) while missing only a single run tackle all game.

Philadelphia’s defense continued a two-year trend of suffocating opponents. Per NGS, holding Washington to 295 total yards is the 19th time the Eagles have held an opponent to fewer than 300 yards since hiring Vic Fangio in 2024 — second-most in the NFL, behind only Seattle’s 21.

Saquon Barkley‘s day was almost entirely one explosive play. He finished with 15 carries for 83 yards (5.5 yards per carry), but over half of that yardage came on a single 42-yard second-quarter run — his only explosive run of the day.

On his other 14 carries, Barkley was contacted behind the line of scrimmage on exactly half of those plays (7), totaling just 41 yards. Per NGS, he forced 5 missed tackles and picked up 78 of his 83 yards after contact, against just 5 yards before contact — a heavily contact-reliant, low-space day overall.

A heavy snap share (71%, 39 of 55 offensive snaps) didn’t translate to heavy touches for Barkley: 15 carries and a true 3 targets (11.5% adjusted target share, up from an official 8.0% once a 5-yard catch wiped by Philadelphia’s own holding penalty is credited back).

Goedert was the clear touchdown-equity winner: 2 receiving touchdowns on 5 targets (20.0%/19.2% adjusted share), including 2 red-zone looks and 1 end-zone target. His 94.3% snap share tied DeVonta Smith for the team lead, but only 75.0% route participation — real in-line/blocking responsibility remains mixed into the role even on a 2-touchdown day.

It was confirmed by NGS that this wasn’t red-zone luck — Goedert was targeted specifically in the seam. Hurts went 3-of-4 for 65 yards and both scores. A clearly distinct and superior matchup read that should keep Goedert’s touchdown equity elevated most weeks Hurts is playing well.

Smith commanded a team-high volume on a near-every-snap workload: 6 targets (24.0%/23.1% adjusted share), 94.3% snap share and a team-best 96.4% route participation. A 13.9 aDOT and team-high 37.1% air-yard share confirm he’s still Philadelphia’s primary early-down/possession option.

Notably, zero red-zone or end-zone targets. And the box score is obviously a disappointment with just three catches for 53 yards.

Dontayvion Wicks earned a true full-time role: 90.6% snap share and 92.9% route participation, with 4 targets (16.0%/15.4% adjusted share) that included a red-zone target, an end-zone target and the game’s third passing touchdown. His 21.3 aDOT was the deepest target-weighted average of any pass-catcher (converted into two catches for 73 yards).

Rookie wideout Makai Lemon posted meaningful, if under-the-radar, volume: 4 targets (16.0% official / 15.4% adjusted target share, tied for third on the team with Wicks) on a healthy 64% snap share (35 snaps).

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at TEN (Road) | Week 3 at CHI (Road) | Week 4 vs. LAR (Home) | Week 5 at JAX (Neutral – London)

Tennessee Titans

Hold Carnell Tate

Cam Ward had a brutal day under pressure. He faced pressure on 42.1% of his dropbacks — the second-highest rate of his career (50% in Week 1, 2025 versus the Broncos) — and was nearly unplayable when hurried: 3-of-10 for 17 yards under pressure, versus 16-of-22 for 123 yards and a touchdown when kept clean. Rookie David Bailey led all pass-rushers with a team-high 6 pressures.

Next up for the second-year quarterback is the… Eagles. Woof.

Tyjae Spears predictably split the backfield evenly on snaps with Tony Pollard but leaned toward the passing-down role: just 3 carries, but a true 4 targets (12.5% adjusted target share) — the receiving half of a true committee.

Pollard matched Spears’ snap share but did the early-down rushing work (7 carries to Spears’ 3) with only 2 targets (6.3%) — currently the ground-game half of the same committee, not a passing-down factor. Neither back looks like they will be fantasy relevant anytime soon. Same issue as last season. Spears at least has some appeal in deeper full PPR formats, but the upside is capped within the confines of a committee approach and a bad offensive line. Eagles up next? Just say no.

Carnell Tate was Tennessee’s most-used player, with an 88% snap share, 33 routes, and a game-high 94.3% route participation. He tied veteran Wan’Dale Robinson for the official target lead (6, 18.8%) but didn’t convert that volume into scoring-zone work — 0 end-zone/red-zone targets and 32 incomplete air yards on a 10.2 aDOT.

Robinson tied Tate for the team’s official target lead (6, 18.8%) on an even larger 82% snap share. If you have to make a move this week, I’m fine cutting bait on Robinson. A 3.9 aDOT (5 catches for 38 yards) can only help you so much.

But I want to hold onto Tate a bit longer. Still a top-five real-life draft pick that I am not ready to cut bait with after one game.

Gunnar Helm‘s logged the only end-zone (1) and red-zone targets (1) for the team’s receivers this week — a real, early goal-to-go role on a 76% snap share, 60% route participation and 5 targets (15.6% target share).

Elic Ayomanor scored Tennessee’s only touchdown (an 11-yard reception) on the game’s best-executed drive of the day — a clean red-zone conversion — and he drew 2 red-zone targets, tying for the team’s most among tracked pass-catchers.

Modest overall snap share (53.1%/52%) and target share (9.4%), but a real 13.0 aDOT and 24.3% air-yard share point to a legitimate downfield/scoring-zone role that punches above its raw target count. Given that Calvin Ridley posted zero targets on a 65.7% routes-run rate, it might be a matter of time until he gets benched in favor of Ayomanor.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. PHI (Home) | Week 3 at NYG (Road) | Week 4 at BAL (Road) | Week 5 vs. HOU (Home)

Minnesota Vikings

No Recommended Moves to Make

Kyler Murray started under center and was injured on a 2-yard scramble in the first quarter — and did not return (officially ruled out by the second quarter).

Carson Wentz took over and threw all 3 of Minnesota’s passing touchdowns, including the two that keyed the fourth-quarter comeback. Wentz completed 12 of his 19 pass attempts for 133 yards and three touchdowns in the Vikings’ Week 1 win over the Packers.

Wentz was most effective on passes with a time to throw over 2.5 seconds, completing 7 of 12 such attempts for 91 yards and all three touchdowns. It was the sixth time he has thrown for three touchdowns on such passes in his career.

The Vikings defeated the Packers 39-22 in Week 1 despite being outgained by 180 total yards — the first win in franchise history by 15+ points while being outgained by 150+ total yards. Minnesota is the third team over the last 10 seasons to accomplish the feat, joining the 49ers (Week 11, 2025) and the Lions (Week 8, 2024), according to NGS.

Justin Jefferson led the Vikings with 8 receptions, 92 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in Week 1. He posted a team-high 9 targets (37.5% share) and 2 touchdowns, one of which came on a short field set up by the erased-interception sequence.

T.J. Hockenson‘s true receiving line (6 targets, 4 catches, 36 yards, 1 touchdown) is a touch better than the box score shows, and he remains a red-zone weapon for Minnesota regardless. The Week 2 shootout game script makes Hockenson a viable waiver wire option. He had a 70% route participation and showed some rapport with Wentz in the past — 8.10 PPG, 4.5 receptions and just under 6 targets in the last 6 games with Wentz.

Jordan Addison had 2 targets and 0 catches, yet a team-high 96.3% route participation on an 83% snap share.

Aaron Jones totaled 12 carries and a true 1 target (4.2% share) on a 46% snap share. His lone touchdown (a 3-yard rush) came two plays after the erased interception sequence handed Minnesota a short field.

Jordan Mason out-carried Jones 15-to-12 on a similar 45% snap share, and his own touchdown (1-yard rush) was likewise set up by a short field — this one off a Jordan Love sack-fumble.

Mason is dealing with a thumb injury.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at CHI (Road) | Week 3 at TB (Road) | Week 4 vs. MIA (Home) | Week 5 at NO (Road)

Chicago Bears

Buy Colston Loveland

The Panthers and Bears combined for 552 (Bears) and 478 (Panthers) net yards, with 8 total touchdowns for Chicago alone (5 for Carolina) and five lead changes before Chicago pulled away for good in the third quarter. Both offenses finished a perfect 4-of-4 in the red zone.

No offensive skill-position injuries of consequence for either team. Several defensive players left and returned to the game at various points, but nothing here changes either team’s offensive outlook into next week.

A Jimmy Horn muffed punt handed Chicago a scoring-range short field in the first quarter, and Chicago cleanly recovered Carolina’s desperation onside kick down 52-31 in the fourth quarter, sealing the game before Carolina’s offense got another possession. Horn caused Seth to lose his Panthers first-half Moneyline bet.

Now to the good stuff.

D’Andre Swift went nuclear — and the box score actually understates his workload — 3 total touchdowns (both goal-line scores plus a 28-yard breakaway), 124 yards on 18 official carries and three additional carries wiped out by his own teammates’ penalties.

Swift posted a 55.6% rushing success rate (his fourth-highest on record), and 7 forced missed tackles (tied for third-most in a single game of his career). Per NGS, he was dramatically better with Williams under center (career-high 116 yards on 14 such carries, 8.3 yards per carry) than on his other 4 carries combined (8 yards) — worth tracking Chicago’s under-center rate with Swift in the backfield as a real week-to-week variable, on top of the direct-snap wrinkle.

Kyle Monangai earned a legitimate rotation share (43% snaps), but his lone touchdown (a 61-yard explosive run) is a big-play outcome and benefit of playing behind an elite run-blocking scheme orchestrated by head coach Ben Johnson. The second-year back hit 100 yards on just 10 carries (124 yards from scrimmage).

Chicago’s backfield was a two-way rotation (Swift: 57%, Monangai: 43%).

Williams’ zero-interception box score overstates a clean process day. He nearly threw a goal-line interception (intended for Colston Loveland, picked by Bobby Brown) that didn’t count because of a defensive penalty, and NGS showed he was 0-for-5 passing, with both his sacks coming on 13 pressured dropbacks — a rough day, especially when protection broke down.

The flip side is real and arguably the bigger story: His rushing was a career-best, legitimately elite outlier — 8 scrambles for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns (all career highs). He had a 20.80 MPH top speed on his second touchdown run, and he now leads all quarterbacks since 2025 with 7 carries of 20+ MPH (the rest of the league has combined for 5). That rushing equity is a real, repeatable weapon; the pressure-passing numbers are the more actionable Week 2 watch item.

Jahdae Walker scored on zero underlying volume — don’t chase it. His lone target of the night was the touchdown, manufactured by field position (the ball was already at the 1-yard line) rather than a repeatable role. Loveland, by contrast, saw real red-zone target volume (a 3rd target that would have been an interception at the goal line) without converting any of it — a much quieter and more concerning red-zone day for a tight end than the box score (2 targets, 0 catches) even suggests.

Loveland is the ultimate buy-low target given he still led all Bears in routes run (33) and snaps among the skill position players (87% snap share). The Bears’ second-year tight end posted the highest route participation among all players at his position in Week 1.

The fact that the Bears posted 59 points and none of their pass-catchers went off is such an anomaly. Well, I shouldn’t say none of them went off.

Kalif Raymond led the team with 9 targets (31.0% official / 30.0% adjusted target share) despite playing just 60% of snaps and running only 71.0% of routes. Do not chase.

Luther Burden earned 5 targets (17.2%/16.7% adjusted) on an 80.6% route-participation rate and 73% snap share. Good to see him in a more full-time role compared to his rookie campaign. Caught all 5 of his targets for a solid 63 yards (second on the team).

Rome Odunze played a pure downfield role: a game-high 28.2 aDOT and 31.4% air-yard share on just 3 targets (2 catches for 52 yards), with 38 incomplete air yards showing the shots simply weren’t connecting yet. A big-play/boom-or-bust profile that could prove very profitable against the Vikings’ defense that surrendered a lot of production to Packers wide receivers in Week 1.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. MIN (Home) | Week 3 vs. PHI (Home) | Week 4 vs. NYJ (Home) | Week 5 at GB (Road)

Las Vegas Raiders

Add Michael Mayer

Ashton Jeanty had one of the best two-way days a running back can have: 23 carries for 102 yards on the ground, plus 6 catches (on 6 targets) for 45 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns.

Per NGS, it’s his second career game with 100+ rushing yards and multiple receiving touchdowns — tying Brian Westbrook and Christian McCaffrey for the most such games in NFL history. Both of his multi-receiving-touchdown games are the most by any running back since he entered the league in 2025. A true workhorse touch total (29: 23 carries + 6 targets) and a strong snap share (74%).

Las Vegas leaned unusually hard on 21 personnel (2 RB, 1 TE) — their highest rate in the NGS era (since 2016), at 24 of 67 offensive plays (35.8%), averaging 6.4 yards per play (154 yards, 2 touchdowns) from that grouping. Both Jeanty touchdowns came from 21 personnel, where he caught all 4 of his targets for 36 yards.

Will be curious to see how this holds over time… given the Raiders should get Brock Bowers back soon after he missed Week 1. Because Mike Washington Jr. saw 7 carries in just 13 snaps (19.4%).

Kirk Cousins‘ Raiders debut was defined by touchdowns and turnovers in roughly equal measure — 21-of-30 for 160 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions (88.2 rating). Both interceptions came in the second half on drives that otherwise had scoring potential. Threw short and often — 160 yards on 21 completions — consistent with Michael Mayer‘s low 4.1 aDOT, leading the team in targets.

Mayer earned 7 official targets (23.3% share, 22.6% adjusted) — and was the only pass-catcher with both an end-zone target and a red-zone target, making him the clearest goal-to-go weapon sans Bowers. His 81% snap share (team high among pass-catchers) didn’t fully translate into route participation — 76.7% was below Tre Tucker‘s 90.0%.

The target share, position designation and red-zone/end-zone role make him the more fantasy-relevant piece of the two regardless. If he scores, you feel much better about him as a streaming option.

Bowers is being listed as day-to-day.

Jalen Nailor was actually second among pass catchers in true targets (5, 16.7% official / 16.1% adjusted) with a 12.5 aDOT and 28.0% air-yard share — a legitimate downfield complement to Mayer’s short/intermediate work, though a 60% snap/route share keeps him behind the Mayer-Jeanty combo in overall passing-game equity.

Jack Bech scored the touchdown (15 yards) that capped Las Vegas’ opening drive, and logged 2 red-zone targets — the most of any Raiders pass-catcher — but did it on a light 40.3% snap share, well behind Tucker and Mayer.

A made field goal was wiped out by a penalty and simply remade from further back. Las Vegas’ Matt Gay made a 25-yard field goal in the third quarter, but it was nullified by an offensive offside penalty.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at LAC (Road) | Week 3 at NO (Road) | Week 4 vs. KC (Home) | Week 5 at NE (Road)

Los Angeles Chargers

Add Tre’ Harris & Add David Njoku

Justin Herbert‘s efficiency was almost entirely dependent on play-action. Per NGS, Los Angeles used play-action on 29.4% of his dropbacks, and those seven attempts produced 100 yards — his best per-play work of the day by far. On his 20 non-play-action attempts, he completed just 11 for 109 yards, the fourth-lowest such total of his career.

A 48-yard DPI penalty wiped out one of Herbert’s biggest shots of the day — a deep target to Tre’ Harris, erased by Arizona’s Max Melton. It’s completely invisible in Harris’ final 6-target, 20-yard official line.

A blocked punt directly gifted Arizona its second touchdown. Los Angeles punter Jordan Scott had a punt blocked by Simi Fehoko in the fourth quarter; the Chargers recovered it themselves at their own 3-yard line, but the short field cost them immediately — Arizona needed only 2 plays and 3 yards to cash in a Trey McBride touchdown catch. L.A. also turned the ball over on downs in Arizona territory instead of tying the game 10-10 by opting to go for it instead of kicking a field goal.

Derwin James‘ 100% defensive snap share lines up exactly with his shadow assignment on McBride discussed in the NGS section — he was on the field for every single Cardinals offensive snap, by design. He had some wins, but McBride more than got his against the All-Pro safety.

No. 2 RB Keaton Mitchell had a real completed target that is almost entirely invisible in the box score. A 4-yard catch was wiped out by his own team’s holding penalty, leaving the Chargers’ leading rusher-in-touches with zero official pass-game targets despite a real, if minor, receiving rep.

Mitchel played just 17 snaps (31%) — clearly the Chargers’ clear-cut No. 2 RB/change-of-pace role behind Hampton’s 32 snaps (58%) — so the single target (erased by penalty) fits a small, secondary role rather than suggesting untapped pass-game upside. Hampton also lost a fumble on the second drive.

The second-year running back made the most of an early-down/goal-line role with 12 rush attempts and the Chargers’ only rushing touchdown (a clean 8-yard conversion).

Hampton had a bull-dozing run into the end zone that he earned. Can’t see the Chargers not utilizing him as the primary red-zone threat. Zero targets logged, though.

Definitely have some concerns about Hampton after Week 1, but the next two weeks should be very good for his touchdown appeal (Raiders, Bills).

Very curious about the Chargers' sheer lack of RB targets in Week 1.

Zero for Omarion Hampton, one for Keaton Mitchell (wiped away by a flag).

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 14, 2026

Both teams’ accepted-penalty yardage totals reconcile exactly against the play-by-play (Arizona 8-111, Los Angeles 7-64) — with two additional penalties correctly declined.

Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert‘s clear top read (a true 8 targets, 82 yards, a touchdown). McConkey also got hurt in this game, limiting him to just 49% of the snaps. Before his injury, the third-year receiver was cooking. The latest is that he is battling a rib injury, and he will be monitored throughout the week. Not great.

Quentin Johnston‘s true target share (7, up from 6 official) and Mitchell’s fully invisible target (0 official, 1 true) both point to Los Angeles spreading the ball around even in a losing, run-neutralized game script — worth watching as secondary-target volume plays going forward, especially if McConkey is forced to miss any more time.

Harris and Johnston ran the same number of routes. Identical 83.3% route participation rates with nearly identical route counts (25 each). Given McConkey’s injury, I think Harris is worth the speculative add, along with David Njoku.

The former Browns tight end headlined the Chargers’ tight end room, tying Charlie Kolar with a 55% snap rate but seeing much more involvement as a receiver. Njoku saw one red-zone target. He totaled 5 targets (18.5% official / 16.1% adjusted share) and a 53.3% route participation.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. LV (Home) | Week 3 at BUF (Road) | Week 4 at SEA (Road) | Week 5 vs. DEN (Home)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Bhayshul Tuten

Trevor Lawrence was close to flawless in Week 1, and NGS quantifies just how good. He completed 10-of-11 passes for 179 yards and 3 touchdowns specifically on throws of 10+ air yards — the most such touchdowns in a game in his career — including a perfect 8-for-8 for 117 yards and a score on intermediate throws (10-19 air yards) and 2-of-3 for 62 yards and 2 touchdowns on deep shots (20+ air yards).

Lawrence feasted on a passive Cleveland pass rush — the Browns blitzed on just 3 of 25 dropbacks (12.0%, tied for their fewest since last season), and Lawrence went 17-of-21 for 223 yards and 4 touchdowns against four-or-fewer rushers while facing pressure on only 18.2% of those snaps. A genuinely clean pocket day, worth weighing against how he performs when defenses actually bring pressure.

Jacksonville’s win streak reached nine straight games (tied for the second-longest in franchise history), and the 34-10 final score reflected a genuinely elite offensive environment behind Lawrence in his second season with Liam Coen. His four passing touchdowns were spread across four different players (Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Cameron) with no single receiver monopolizing red-zone work — good for the offense’s overall scoring floor, but a real complication for identifying one clear must-start target beyond Washington.

Washington commanded a team-high 6 targets (26.1% official/25.0% adjusted target share), a 61% snap share, 70.8% route participation rate and a team-leading 43.3% air-yard share — all converted into a clean 30-yard touchdown. The clear top target to build around. It’s Washington WR1 SZN.

Meyers’ final stat line of 2 targets undersells his role. He actually led all Jacksonville pass-catchers in route participation (79.2%, ahead of even Washington) and ran the deepest routes among the primary options (19.2 aDOT), including an end-zone target — and still turned that light target share into a 32-yard touchdown.

Brian Thomas Jr. was nothing more than an ancillary piece — 3 targets (13.0% official/12.5% adjusted), 54.2% route participation and a healthy 19.1% air-yard share at a 14.9 aDOT. He left with an injury but is expected to play in Week 2.

Strange was not used near the red zone. He had 3 targets (13.0%/12.5%) and a 62.5% route participation rate, including both an end-zone target and a red-zone target, which he converted into a 14-yard touchdown — a legitimate scoring-role tight end worth rostering in touchdown-driven formats.

Josh Cameron. Purely situational, scoring-driven usage — 2 targets on a 33.9% snap share and modest 29.2% route participation, but both looks came inside meaningful real estate (1 end-zone target, 1 red-zone target), and he converted one into a 4-yard touchdown

Travis Hunter‘s usage has flipped hard toward defense: 27 defensive snaps against just 4 offensive snaps and 1 target, a sharp reversal from 35+ offensive snaps in each of his first seven contests of 2025. Treat him as a non-factor on offense until his snap distribution proves otherwise.

Bhayshul Tuten was the clear lead back by snaps and carries (48.2% snap share, 15 carries) with a modest receiving role — officially 1 target, though his true target count is 2 (a 7-yard catch was wiped by Jacksonville’s own holding penalty, restoring real receiving production the box score doesn’t show). Totaled 88 yards from scrimmage in a decent showing as the team’s lead back.

Ameer Abdullah worked in as a change-of-pace piece (4 carries on just 5 snaps) but isn’t a real committee threat yet.

Veteran Chris Rodriguez Jr. played 40% of the snaps but only saw six touches (all carries) for 23 yards (and the team’s lone red-zone touch inside the 5-yard line). Shockingly, Rodriguez also saw zero targets.

All in all, I think this was relatively a win for Tuten. Jaguars coaches praised him post-game, and he averaged 4.3 yards after contact per attempt and forced 9 missed tackles.

The schedule isn’t ideal for anybody in particular for the Jaguars – but it might not matter if this team is a wagon on offense like they were in Week 1. Keep in mind the Broncos just got embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs’ rushing attack. And the Jaguars beat Denver 34-20 last season in Denver.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at DEN (Road) | Week 3 vs. NE (Home) | Week 4 at CIN (Road) | Week 5 vs. PHI (Neutral – London)

Denver Broncos

Sell J.K. Dobbins, Add Pat Bryant, Buy Jaylen Waddle & Sell Courtland Sutton

So new offensive coordinator Davis Webb‘s first game calling plays for Denver’s offense… not great, fam.

Per NGS, Denver was held to just 176 total yards in Webb’s debut as the team’s offensive play-caller — the fewest yards in Sean Payton’s tenure as head coach and the franchise’s fewest since a Drew Lock-led 158-yard game in Week 16, 2021.

Denver’s offense was defined by pressure. Bo Nix was sacked 4 times and pressured on 45.5% of his dropbacks (his second-highest pressure rate in a career game) — a clean-pocket-versus-pressure split (15-of-18/126 yds/1 touchdown clean; 2-of-10/5 yds/interception/2 strip-sacks under pressure) that explains almost the entire box score. Denver’s offense also went cold as the game slipped away. An efficient first half (12-of-17, 98 yards, 1 touchdown) was followed by a nearly empty second half (5-of-11, 33 yards, 0 touchdowns).

Denver’s own personnel cost itself twice in the running game. Pat Bryant was flagged for offensive holding on two separate occasions — once erasing a real J.K. Dobbins carry and once erasing a real RJ Harvey carry.

The second-year wideout smashed the over on his receptions prop and was very productive, and had a team-high 21% target share. Bryant led Denver in targets (6, 4 catches, 42 yards), but nearly all of it came before halftime (5 targets, 4 catches, 42 yards in the first half) — he barely saw the ball again after intermission. And he got banged up late in the game (questionable to return), so something to monitor. Bryant has a bit of a history of getting hurt in his NFL career.

Clearly, I am burying the lede, though… Jaylen Waddle. Woof. He had 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 targets despite a team-high 27 routes run — his 11.1% target rate was the 5th-lowest of his career, and he didn’t draw a single deep target. He also had a drop. Bryant and Courtland Sutton combined for 11 targets to his 3. A down night for the whole Denver passing game, more than a Waddle-specific problem, but it was definitely shocking to see so little involvement from him after what Denver gave up to acquire him. I’d buy low. Route participation and snaps were still high.

Not the same for Sutton. Just 2 catches for 11 yards on 5 targets.

Dobbins led Denver backs in carries (8 of the team’s 15 rushing attempts) but drew zero targets, capping his ceiling in this offense — 36 yards on 8 carries (4.5 yards per carry). Without receiving work, he’s touchdown-or-bust for fantasy purposes. His true workload ran a carry higher (9 attempts, 39 yards) after a real 3-yard gain was erased by Denver’s own holding penalty.

Meanwhile, Harvey was the clear passing-down complement to Dobbins: 4 targets (4 catches, 23 yards) plus return duty (4 kickoff returns for 111 yards, a 27.8 average, long of 31) gives him a real weekly PPR floor even on limited rushing volume (3 carries, 18 yards, though his true workload was 4 carries and 20 yards after a Denver holding penalty erased a real 2-yard gain). Harvey also came close to scoring in this game, as the team loves to feature him around the red zone.

Harvey played 26 snaps (51%) and had 7 touches for 41 total yards; Dobbins played 22 snaps (43%) and had 8 touches for 36 total yards. They have a tough matchup in Week 2 versus the Jaguars’ run defense.

Evan Engram scored Denver’s only touchdown of the game — a 19-yard catch on the opening scoring drive — on decent volume (5 targets, 4 catches, 43 yards). Revenge game next week at home versus the Jaguars. He’s an interesting tight end flier if Bryant is out.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. JAX (Home) | Week 3 vs. LAR (Home) | Week 4 at SF (Road) | Week 5 at LAC (Road)

Seattle Seahawks

Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Sell Jadarian Price

Seems like forever ago the Seahawks kicked off the season versus the New England Patriots.

Sam Darnold started and went 2-of-2 for 13 yards before being sacked and injured on Seattle’s opening drive. Drew Lock played every snap the rest of the way, finishing 22-of-24 for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions. Darnold was later ruled out. He is expected to miss close to four weeks with a glute injury.

Lock is the Week 2-and-beyond starter (pending another injury or a colossal implosion).

Therefore, you take advantage of this to buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Anytime a wide receiver’s starting quarterback gets hurt, the wide receiver’s value takes a dip. And there are cases where it doesn’t work out (Justin Jefferson in 2025). But after doing these trade articles for so many years, I am firmly in the camp that you just buy these elite wideouts at 75 cents on the dollar when their QB1 goes down. More often than not, you’ll be glad you bought low on the elite talent. Wide receiver is the fantasy position I believe is most dependent on player talent.

And in the case of Smith-Njigba… it’s not as if Darnold is out for the entire season. If Smith-Njigba continues to see absurd target shares and movement in the Seahawks’ formation, he will continue to produce at an extremely high level. Smith-Njigba is a clear target hog (11 targets, 45.8% share, 100% route participation), and showcased on Wednesday night the damage he can do when he gets the ball in his hands. He finished Week 1 with 8 catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Smith-Njigba was targeted on exactly half of Lock’s 22 pass attempts.

It was noted by NGS that the Seahawks’ No. 1 WR was dominant against zone coverage but 0-for-3 when targeted against man (0-for-2 specifically versus Christian Gonzalez). He had a career-high +35 yards after catch over expected. His target-volume floor looks safe every week, regardless of whoever is under center.

Rookie Jadarian Price started because Zach Charbonnet (knee) is out. He played well on 50% of the snaps, with a 50% success rate and forced missed tackles on roughly half his carries, finishing with 10 carries for 52 yards (added two catches as well).

George Holani, not the rookie, owned Seattle’s confirmed red-zone touches, however. Where have we seen this story before? Last year in Seattle. Fantasy football nightmare fuel.

Holani earned 2 carries inside the 15 on the same drive that ended with Cooper Kupp‘s called-back touchdown. He added 8 carries for 29 yards but played 91% of the third-down snaps.

I’m concerned that Seattle will continue to deploy a committee and reintroduce Charbonnet when he returns to the lineup. As good as Price looked, you can’t disregard this team’s love affair with Charbonnet.

Kupp operated as the No. 2 WR, ahead of Rashid Shaheed (one catch on 3 targets).

Romeo Doubs and Rashid Shaheed combined for:

1 catch for 4 yards
1 interception
1 drop

On 6 targets pic.twitter.com/S8TYcrgvRT

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 10, 2026

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at ARI (Road) | Week 3 at WSH (Road) | Week 4 vs. LAC (Home) | Week 5 vs. SF (Home)

Arizona Cardinals

Sell Marvin Harrison Jr. & Buy Jeremiyah Love

Jacoby Brissett had a tight, efficient, mostly mistake-free day: 27-of-37 for 277 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions, a 103.1 rating. Per NGS, he was especially sharp pushing the ball downfield — 6-of-9 for 113 yards, +23.9% completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on throws of 10+ air yards and 8-of-9 for 70 yards and a touchdown (+29.9% CPOE) when targeting out-breaking routes. He also handled pressure well relative to his own recent history. A year after facing the NFL’s highest quarterback pressure rate (41.6% in 2025), he went 6-of-11 for 94 yards (+9.4% CPOE) while taking just one sack this week (30.8% pressure rate faced).

Trey McBride‘s monster day (13 targets, 9 catches, 95 yards, 1 touchdown — all team highs) held up directly against Los Angeles’ top coverage matchup. Derwin James covered him on 19 of his 34 routes (including man coverage on 10 of those 19). McBride still went 4-of-6 for 20 yards and a touchdown against that coverage. The bulk of his production came from the slot (6 receptions, 72 yards, touchdown on 25 slot routes), with only 7 routes run from tight alignment (2 receptions, 17 yards).

McBride is operating as an every-week target monopoly, and his production against Los Angeles’ best coverage piece is the more telling signal than the raw volume. A team-high 13 targets is one thing; going 4-of-6 for 20 yards and a touchdown specifically against Derwin James (who shadowed him on 19 of 34 routes) shows he’s winning real matchups, not just accumulating garbage-time looks — with most of the damage coming from the slot rather than in-line.

McBride’s 4 red-zone targets and 2 end-zone targets were both team highs.

Jeremiyah Love‘s NFL debut was smaller in volume than explosive in quality. He forced 6 missed tackles on just 11 carries, with 38 of his 41 rushing yards coming after a forced missed tackle — real man-would-be-tackled production even though he was out-snapped (41-32) and out-touched (19-13) by starter Tyler Allgeier, Arizona’s clear early-down workhorse (34 carries, 116 yards, 1 touchdown). Love’s best work came on outside runs to the right side of the formation (28 yards on 6 carries), versus just 2 carries between the tackles.

Note that Arizona’s lone rushing touchdown this week was scored by Love, not Allgeier. The rookie punched in a score from the 5-yard line. Great for his season-long outlook that the team is not automatically using the veteran in goal-line situations. And most importantly, he showed no lingering effects from his ankle sprain injury from the preseason.

Michael Wilson‘s box score (7 targets, 5 catches, 56 yards) undersells a genuinely bigger role — a true 9 targets once both penalty-erased looks are credited back, including a 24-yard DPI shot that’s a real explosive-play opportunity missing from the official record.

Wilson posted the highest route-participation rate of any pass-catcher in this game (94.7%), even ahead of McBride — full-time usage that lines up with his true 9-target workload (after the two penalty additions logged above).

Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s lack of volume is worth flagging. He played 79% of Arizona’s offensive snaps but only 3 official targets (4 true targets) — one of the bigger snap-to-target gaps this project has logged, and a name to track for target growth if the route/coverage usage holds.

Harrison had a drop on the opening drive. Being buried in Week 1 in the target pecking order is a major red flag. Kendrick Bourne, who played with Jacoby Brissett in New England, is very bad for Harrison. To his credit, Harrison did make a great over-the-shoulder catch down the left sideline, but that’s better in real life than in fantasy football. No projected layup targets for Harrison make him a fringe fantasy football receiver. Especially with Seattle’s defense on deck.

Kendrick Bourne quietly delivered a real 21.6% target share (8 targets, second-most on the team) but on a shallow, possession-based profile — 5.0 aDOT, 13.8% air-yard share, just 1 red-zone target and 0 end-zone targets.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. SEA (Home) | Week 3 at SF (Road) | Week 4 at NYG (Road) | Week 5 vs. DET (Home)

Miami Dolphins

Add Caleb Douglas & Add Malik Willis

Miami’s rookie linebacker corps had a standout day defensively, per NGS, even in a loss. Green dot wearer Jacob Rodriguez logged 10 run tackles (third-most by a rookie in a single game since 2016) and 7 run stops (second-most), both team highs on 37 run snaps. Teammate Chris Johnson matched him with 7 run tackles, tied for the most by a rookie cornerback in a single game over that span. Miami played single-high safety looks on 67.7% of dropbacks, a two-season high.

A late Miami fumble effectively ended the game against the Raiders. With the Dolphins driving inside the 2-minute warning, Malik Washington caught a 26-yard pass to midfield before fumbling — closing the door on any Miami comeback bid.

Washington led the way with 9 targets — good for a 30% target share. Volume didn’t translate into scoring — 53 yards on 3 catches and zero end-zone/red-zone targets. Translation for the coaches? Maybe we should get somebody else the ball.

Passing volume concentrated hard on two receivers. Caleb Douglas (8 true targets, 94 yards on just 7 official looks) combined for the large majority of Miami’s adjusted pass attempts, with De’Von Achane‘s receiving work a distant third and no real No. 3 WR behind them.

The rookie seized a game-high 96.9% route participation with a healthy 16.7 aDOT and 36.0% air-yard share — a legitimate downfield piece. Exploding for nearly 100 yards in his first NFL action is a great sign of things to come for Douglas. Chris Bell operated as the No. 3 WR but wasn’t involved. Imagine he gets more ramped up, coming off a season-ending ACL injury in his final college season.

RIP Greg Dulcich TE1 SZN. Or is it? Let me dream. He led Miami tight ends in snaps (74.0%) and routes, but volume was non-existent — just 2 targets (7.4% official / 6.7% adjusted share) and a negligible 0.6 aDOT, pointing to a blocking/underneath role rather than a real receiving weapon. Not fantasy-relevant unless target volume grows. I hate life.

Still, there’s hope for Achane. Workhorse snap share (88.0%, 44 of 50 snaps), but a meh box score shows just 11 carries for 36 rushing yards, plus an official 5 targets (4 catches, 30 yards). His true target count was 6. He had a 16-yard catch wiped away by one of Miami’s own penalties, understating his receiving-down role. Considering Achane’s target share was pronounced dead on arrival after the Dolphins acquired the mobile Malik Willis, I’d actually think Achane’s six targets are a pretty strong signal.

Miami’s only touchdown depended on a favorable replay ruling. Miami’s own challenge overturned a ruled-incomplete pass to rookie Caleb Douglas into a 13-yard completion, two plays before Malik Willis‘ 14-yard touchdown scramble — the Dolphins’ lone score of the game. Willis totaled six carries for 39 yards (the team’s leading rusher), which makes him fantasy-viable across all matchups. He totaled 36 dropbacks, tying for 15th among all quarterbacks in Week 1. Willis tossed 220 scoreless yards and 1 interception. But because of the rushing, he was still fantasy’s QB14 in Week 1.

A modest-volume passing game overall — just 27 official / 30 adjusted team pass attempts in a game Miami trailed by two scores, not the high-volume trailing script the final margin might suggest. We could see that change in future weeks against better teams than the Raiders.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at SF (Road) | Week 3 vs. KC (Home) | Week 4 at MIN (Road) | Week 5 vs. CIN (Home)

San Francisco 49ers

Add Deebo Samuel, Add 49ers D/ST & Add Kaelon Black

San Francisco led 17-7 at halftime against the Rams in Week 1 and pulled away with 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. L.A. never got closer than 10 points.

Deebo Samuel finished Week 1 with 7 targets / 6 catches / 48 yards / 1 touchdown, plus a 12-yard carry. He had one additional target that was erased by a penalty — bumping his true targets to 8, tying for the team high. His touchdown (15-yard pass) was a clean, designed look — no red-zone target competition story, no penalty involvement on either side of that score. The only concern is that Samuel played just 26 snaps (40.6% snap share — the lowest among San Francisco’s core weapons). He ran 18 routes (52.9% route participation), had a 21% target share, 2.5 aDOT, 1 end-zone target and 3 red-zone targets (tied with Mike Evans for the team’s most red-zone looks).

A total of 62.5% of his receiving yards (30 of 48) came after the catch, and half of his catches came on quick throws from Brock Purdy (under 2.5 seconds). Usual yards-after-the-catch-heavy, quick-game identity in San Francisco, not a new or different usage pattern from what we have seen from Samuel in this offense.

But the fact that rookie first-rounder De’Zhaun Stribling is expected to miss close to a month with an ankle injury suggests Samuel has plenty of fantasy football appeal off the waiver wire heading into Week 2.

Also bodes well for Mike Evans to keep doing what he does… score touchdowns. In his 49ers debut: 7 targets (20.6% share) on a 75.0% snap share and 67.6% route participation, capped by a third-quarter touchdown on a fade/go route at the goal line after being featured from the opening drive (3 catches, all first downs). A 39.8% air-yard share plus 2 red-zone targets point to a continued high-ceiling role in the 49ers’ high-octane offense.

George Kittle was not in a full-time role (13 routes run across 30 snaps, 38.2% route participation despite a 46.9% snap share), but this should increase in coming weeks. The concern is how reliable that role can be in potential blow-out game scripts in upcoming matchups. He’s a boom-or-bust option.

The 49ers’ schedule is very good; the next two weeks are against Miami and Arizona. Make sure to add their D/ST this week off waivers. This defense is much healthier than it was last year, and they shut down last year’s MVP in Week 1.

And speaking of waiver additions, running back Kaelon Black needs to be rostered everywhere.

There’s no telling exactly whether he will see as much work as he did alongside a healthy Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, but the upside is immense if McCaffrey suffers an injury.

Black played well in his first NFL action and could offer value even as the No. 2 RB, as the 49ers look to lighten McCaffrey’s load and keep him fresh throughout the 2026 NFL season. He might see plenty of work given the 49ers will be heavy favorites in the next two games (Dolphins, Cardinals). The first-year back totaled a team-high 14 carries for 65 rushing yards, plus a 5-yard catch — 15 total touches, tied with Christian McCaffrey for the 49ers’ team lead in touches.

Black’s 44% snap share is the highest any non-McCaffrey 49ers back has posted in a game McCaffrey started and finished since McCaffrey joined the team in 2022, per NGS. Of his 28 snaps, 26 came on first/second down — he has the potential for a defined early-down role to spell McCaffrey while also adding upside for additional mop-up work in any future blowout (like Week 2).

McCaffrey still led the team in targets with 8 (a mark he hit eight times in 2025), and he carried a real goal-line volume (1 goal-line attempt / 2 red-zone attempts on the ground), but converted the looks into just 20 receiving yards, and his 55% snap share was his lowest in a game he started and finished since Week 17 of 2023.

The dip tracks directly with Kaelon Black‘s emergence. One blowout game isn’t enough to call this a real committee (given McCaffrey was also dealing with cramps), but it’s the top item to re-check in Week 2 before assuming McCaffrey’s workload is untouchable in 2026.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. MIA (Home) | Week 3 vs. ARI (Home) | Week 4 vs. DEN (Home) | Week 5 at SEA (Road)

Washington Commanders

Buy Terry McLaurin, Add Kaytron Allen

The Eagles-Commanders game came down to the final minute, and none of it required a penalty adjustment. Washington scored a touchdown with 1:05 left (Antonio Williams, 1-yard catch) that was reviewed and upheld — not reversed — then failed the ensuing 2-point conversion attempt (ruled complete to John Bates on the catch, but the attempt still failed, presumably short of the goal line) to stay down 24-22. An onside kick attempt came up empty, sealing the Eagles’ win

Williams had a real NFL-debut moment: 4 targets, 4 catches, a team-leading 64 yards and a touchdown. Per NGS, he’s just the second Washington rookie in the Super Bowl era to record 60+ receiving yards and a touchdown in his debut — joining teammate Terry McLaurin, who did it against the same Eagles back in 2019. All on just 37% of Washington’s snaps on 10 routes run.

But that’s the concern. His snaps and 29% route participation were too low to chase. Have to imagine McLaurin doesn’t get blanked two weeks in a row with Dallas up next. However, the injury to Chig Okonkwo does at least increase the odds that Williams can carve out the No. 3 role in this pass attack.

Jayden Daniels played behind an offensive line that couldn’t protect him. He was pressured on 19 of 38 dropbacks (50.0%), tying his career high. Filling in at left tackle for the injured Laremy Tunsil, Brandon Coleman allowed a team-high 9 pressures (including a sack) across 37 pass-blocking snaps — Tunsil never allowed more than 4 pressures in a single game all of last season. Jalyx Hunt alone got to Coleman for 6 pressures across 19 matchups (31.6% rate).

McLaurin was shut down for almost the entire game. Per NGS, he failed to secure his lone target when matched up against either Riq Woolen (13 matchups) or Quinyon Mitchell (9 matchups), and was held without a reception through his first 30 routes before finally catching an 8-yard pass with 4:40 left in the fourth quarter. He finished with 2 catches for 14 yards on 4 official targets despite running a team-high 35 routes. He aligned out wide left on just 17 of 58 snaps (29.3%) — the second-lowest such alignment rate in his career. His true target line (5, not 4, once a penalty-erased incompletion is credited back) doesn’t change the overall story of a game largely lost to shadow coverage.

McLaurin’s Box score (4 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards) badly undersells the role. He ran a route on 100.0% of his 58 snaps (team-high 35 routes), and a true 5th target — a deep incompletion erased by an Eagles illegal contact penalty — pushes his adjusted target share to a team-high 14.3%.

Stefon Diggs led in official volume, but McLaurin remained the clear No. 1 WR by role, and Williams instantly became a name to add in deeper formats. Diggs commanded a team-high 9 targets (26.5% official / 25.7% adjusted target share) on 71.4% route participation (25 routes, 61% of snaps), with a shorter, high-floor 9.2 aDOT, 33.1% air yard share and 1 red-zone target. Diggs paced the team with 9 targets; McLaurin ran a route on literally every snap despite a shadow-coverage-suppressed box score; Williams was perfect on 4 targets in his debut. Expect all three to matter going forward, for different reasons.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the clear early-down/goal-line back (49% snap share, 16 carries, the team’s lone rushing touchdown), with Rachaad White in a lighter complementary/passing-down role (41% snap share, 2 targets, 7 carries for 22 yards). White also added two catches. The one blemish for Bill was that he fumbled (recovered by Washington). But after he put the ball on the ground, Kaytron Allen immediately had three more carries (had one carry up to that point in the game).

Okonkwo will miss time with a hamstring injury. He posted a real route-running floor (62.9% route participation, 38 snaps) and 3 targets (8.8% share), but failed to haul in any of his targets. Maybe it’s Ben Sinnott SZN (26% snap rate in Week 1). He’s a super deep add.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at DAL (Road) | Week 3 vs. SEA (Home) | Week 4 vs. IND (Neutral – London) | Week 5 vs. NYG (Home)

Dallas Cowboys

Sell Jake Ferguson

On 2nd-and-1 from the Giants’ 1-yard line in the second quarter, Javonte Williams was initially ruled to have broken the plane for a rushing touchdown. On review, the replay official reversed the ruling to no gain — Dallas did not score on that snap. It cost Dallas nothing in the standings sense — Dak Prescott hit CeeDee Lamb for the touchdown on the very next snap.

Even so, Williams had a legitimate 3-touchdown-opportunity game. He scored a real 1-yard rushing touchdown later in the third quarter and added a 17-yard receiving touchdown in the fourth quarter. Combined with the reversed goal-line carry, that’s three distinct scoring chances in one game for a player who caught only 5 official targets and had just 12 carries (71% snap share).

New York’s secondary was flagged for defensive pass interference four separate times, all against Dallas’ top three pass-catchers, for a combined 69 penalty yards. Lamb was flagged twice, which brought his total target number on Sunday Night to 10 (26% adjusted target share).

Offensive tackle Tyler Guyton‘s complete shutdown of Brian Burns (0 pressures allowed across 20 matchups) kept Prescott’s pocket clean on that edge all game, per NGS.

George Pickens‘ official 6-3-28-0 was a quiet box score, but his true target count (7, 17.9% adjusted share) was closer to Lamb and Williams than it looks, and he drew the single biggest penalty of the game — a 38-yard DPI on a deep shot that was the closest thing to a signature play he didn’t get credit for. He also failed to catch another deep pass from Prescott, which we have seen him make routinely. Posted a team-high 16.1 aDOT and 37.9% air-yard share on 84.6% of snaps, marking him as Dallas’ clear vertical/boundary threat — a name to watch for a big weekly ceiling as soon as Week 2.

Jake Ferguson (two catches for six yards) was a non-factor, despite a 75.0% snap share (well clear of Brevyn Spann-Ford‘s and Luke Schoonmaker‘s 22% each). He is Dallas’ clear No. 1 TE, and his true target count (3, 7.7% adjusted share) plus a red-zone target solidifies his low-volume role when Cowboys receivers are healthy. I bet his under on 3.5 receptions for Sunday night because he simply does not produce (unless he scores) when Lamb/Pickens are in the lineup.

One of Ferguson’s two targets was erased by a DPI penalty, setting up the goal-to-go sequence that ended in Lamb’s score.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. WSH (Home) | Week 3 vs. BAL (Neutral – Rio de Janeiro) | Week 4 at HOU (Road) | Week 5 vs. TB (Home)

Indianapolis Colts

Buy Josh Downs

The Colts’ passing game was a genuine committee — Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, and Tyler Warren each carried a near-identical ~19% official target share, with Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs close behind.

Warren had the clearest true-role signal on this offense — a team-high 92.5% snap share and 90.9% route participation, with 6 true targets (18.8% adjusted target share) after his DPI-erased deep incompletion is counted. Officially just 5-3-13-1, but the box score undersells a near every-down role. His touchdown came on the very same drive that opened with his own erased DPI target.

Allen tied for the team’s official target lead (6, 19.4%) but on a very short-range diet — 3.8 aDOT and just 12.1% air yards share. Expected output for the long-time veteran.

Pierce (in his first action back since his ankle surgery) also had 6 targets (19.4% share) but the polar opposite usage profile from Allen — a 16.9 aDOT and a team-high 53.0% air yard share, though 50 of his air yards came on incompletions, making this an inefficient week on the actual catches.

A low-key winner for the Colts was Josh Downs. He tied Warren for the team’s highest route-participation rate (90.9% on an 88.7% snap share) but converted that into only 4 targets (12.9% share). Worth watching as a buy-low candidate if Indianapolis starts feeding its highest-route-participation players more consistently. We know the talent and target-earning ability is there. And if Week 1 is any indication, the increase in snaps/routes is a great sign.

Indianapolis’ offensive line, specifically left tackle Bernhard Raimann, was a clear weak point — Trey Hendrickson generated all 8 of his pressures against Raimann individually, and Baltimore’s team pressure rate nearly tripled (58.6% vs. 20.0%) with Hendrickson on the field.

On defense, Sauce Gardner was playing elite, shutdown-level man coverage (career-high 67.7% man rate, just a 6.5% target rate allowed) — useful context for judging opposing No. 1 WRs in future Colts matchups.

Taylor was the clear every-down back profile: 88.7% snap share, 19 carries and a true 4 targets, with both of Indianapolis’ rushing touchdowns (1-yard, 3-yard) going through him — the clean goal-line back on this roster. Backup Seth McGowan saw only token, non-competitive work (11.3% snap, 0 carries).

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at KC (Road) | Week 3 vs. HOU (Home) | Week 4 at WSH (Neutral – London) | Week 5 at PIT (Road)

Kansas City Chiefs

Add Emmett Johnson & Sell Travis Kelce & Add Chiefs DST

Kansas City controlled this game from start to finish — 392 total yards to Denver’s 176, 19 first downs to 9, a 9-of-17 third-down clip to Denver’s 2-of-12 and a 33:42-to-26:18 time-of-possession edge — in Patrick Mahomes‘ first game back from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season in Week 15.

Kenneth Walker III‘s debut was a true workhorse, career-best performance, and it’s the headline fantasy storyline of Week 1’s Monday night slate. A 71.7% snap share — his highest since November 2024, and well above his career-high single-season mark of 52.8% — with 26 total touches, 2 touchdowns and elite underlying efficiency (detailed in the NGS section below) points to top-five fantasy running back upside as long as this role holds. Both halves were productive (14 carries for 89 yards through halftime, then 9 more for 84 yards — including the long touchdown — after the halftime break), so this wasn’t a garbage-time or one-drive outlier; it was a sustained, every-quarter bell-cow role. I am feeling great about my Walker 30-1 ticket to lead the NFL in rushing yards. Fingers crossed.

Patrick Mahomes showed zero lingering effects from his torn ACL, and the addition of a real, trusted rushing floor (23 official yards and a rushing touchdown, plus a “wash” called-back second rushing touchdown that cost him nothing given he scored after that rushing score was wiped off the board) gives him a legitimately higher fantasy floor than his 184 passing yards alone would suggest. The passing game was lackluster overall, but I think the encouraging thing for fantasy managers is that Mahomes didn’t look immobile after the knee injury.

Mahomes’ box score (15-of-27, 184 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, plus 23 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown) undersells how comfortable he looked. He averaged his fastest time-to-throw of his career (2.27 seconds) and was dominant in the quick game specifically — 11-of-16 for 139 yards and both touchdowns on throws under 2.5 seconds, against just 4-of-11 for 45 yards and an interception on anything slower.

Walker obviously stole the show on Monday night, but rookie Emmett Johnson also flashed big-time upside. He had 8 carries for 24 yards plus 2 catches for 44 yards (a 25-yard reception doing most of the work). He’s a clear-cut No. 2 RB and handcuff to Walker; given the latter’s injury history, I am going out of my way to ensure all my Walker reams have Johnson seated comfortably on my bench.

Travis Kelce had a very quiet first half (2 targets, 1 catch, 6 yards) but turned in a signature moment in the third quarter: a 59-yard catch-and-run — his third-longest reception ever — which pushed him past Jason Witten to second place all-time in receiving yards among tight ends. Great accomplishment, but don’t overstate the yardage totals on a day when Denver couldn’t bring down a tackling dummy. The Chiefs tight end still commanded just 5 targets on the day (18.5% target share). This could be one of his highest-yardage games of the year.

Xavier Worthy led Chiefs pass-catchers in targets (6) but converted them into only 18 yards (3 catches, a 6.0 average) — a very inefficient day. Shout-out to Welsh for betting the under on Worthy in this matchup. We need to see something dramatically different before getting Worthy anywhere near fantasy lineups. More unders? Yes please.

Rashee Rice posted a very low target count (2), but converted a clean, real red-zone conversion — a 13-yard touchdown catch on the two-minute-drill scoring drive to close the first half after bouncing off Broncos’ defenders (the theme of Monday Night Football). It wasn’t a great matchup for him, but his touchdown equity is real given how much the Chiefs like to use him in the red zone. He has a much better matchup in Week 2.

Denver’s defense missed 28 tackles, allowing 247 yards after missed tackles — the most yards allowed by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Eight different Denver defenders missed multiple tackles, per NGS.

Rookie Mansoor Delane intercepted Bo Nix on the first defensive drive of his NFL career, but left the game with a shoulder injury.

In his first career start, Kahlil Benson allowed just one pressure on 32 pass blocks (3.2% pressure rate) — including just 1 pressure on 15 one-on-one-heavy matchups against Broncos EDGE rusher Nik Bonitto (93.3% of those snaps were one-on-one). He was one of four rookie tackles across the league (Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Spencer Fano) to log at least 29 pass blocks in Week 1, and recorded the lowest pressure rate of the group without allowing a sack — a strong pass-protection day that stands in contrast to his costly run-blocking hold on Mahomes’ called-back touchdown.

Schedule is great for the Chiefs DST over the next three weeks. Add them.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. IND (Home) | Week 3 at MIA (Road) | Week 4 at LV (Road) | Week 5 – BYE

New York Giants

Buy Malik Nabers

A back-and-forth primetime game that the Giants controlled on volume and clock, not just explosiveness. New York out-snapped Dallas 68-52, held the ball for 36:40 to Dallas’ 23:20 and finished with 29 first downs to 21 — but both teams were a perfect 4-of-4 in the red zone and 2-of-2 on goal-to-go, so this wasn’t a red-zone-efficiency story either. The Giants simply generated more possessions and more plays per possession.

Jaxson Dart was in full command on Sunday Night: 23-of-29 for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 5 scrambles for 34 yards, a 22-yard designed run and 2 sneak conversions — his first career 3+ touchdown/0 interception game, and per NGS the youngest player to do so in a Week 1 primetime game.

The split is the real story for game-planning purposes: 17-of-19 for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns (+15.3% CPOE) against four or fewer rushers, but pressured on 9 out of 16 blitz snaps (56.3%). A legitimate weekly ceiling exists as long as opponents don’t blitz him heavily — worth watching whether opposing defenses adjust.

Isaiah Likely‘s Giants debut was perfect: 8-for-8, two touchdowns on just a 50.0% snap share and 27.6% target share. Team-high marks in both red-zone targets (4) and end-zone targets (1). Per NGS, he beat both zone (4 catches, 40 yards, 1 touchdown) and man (career-high 4 catches, 38 yards, 1 touchdown) coverage for scores in the same game — a matchup-proof profile. Two touchdowns already exceed his entire 2025 Baltimore output. This is a buy-in given his route participation was still strong at 74%.

Cam Skattebo led the Giants with 18 carries on a 60.3% snap share, but zero targets. That was really his only blemish, given he ran half the routes compared to Devin Singletary. He also had a 3-yard touchdown run and a separate 3-yard carry wiped out by a Dallas defensive offside penalty on an early drive. All 4 of Devin Singletary‘s targets/catches came in the fourth quarter (37% snap share with six carries for 16 yards). Tyrone Tracy Jr. was a distant No. 3 RB but fumbled. I imagine he continues to fall on the depth chart behind Najee Harris.

Malik Nabers earned a team-high 9 targets (31.0% share, 38% target rate per route run) despite a 52.9% snap share, which is notably light for a true No. 1 WR workload — a strong per-snap priority signal. Also posted a team-high 40.3% air yard share and 44 incomplete air yards on an 11.1 aDOT, and drew Dallas’ lone red-zone target charged to a Giants receiver besides Likely. The fact that Nabers played and looked like himself in Week 1 is extremely encouraging for him for the rest of 2026. His 6-69 line doesn’t seem like a massive win, but it is when you consider the full context of Nabers’ situation. He’s a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1 for the rest of the season.

Rookie wideout Malachi Fields commanded 4 targets on a 72.1% snap share but only 58.1% route participation — a downfield-only role (16.9 aDOT, team-high-tying 27.0% air-yard share) that came with some heavy incompletion (58 incomplete air yards on just 4 targets).

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 at LAR (Road) | Week 3 vs. TEN (Home) | Week 4 vs. ARI (Home) | Week 5 at WSH (Road)

Los Angeles Rams

Buy Blake Corum & Hold Terrance Ferguson

The Rams’ offense stalled in exactly the spot that matters most for fantasy — the red zone. Their best drive of the day reached 4th-and-1 from the 49ers’ 1-yard line and came away with zero points on a stuffed Matthew Stafford sneak; notably, KyrenWilliams (not Blake Corum) got both called runs inside the 10-yard line before Stafford kept the ball himself on the decisive snap — the goal-to-go carry never actually went to a back.

Matthew Stafford went 17-of-25 for 155 yards before exiting in the fourth quarter to make way for backup Stetson Bennett IV, with the game out of reach.

Passing efficiency to his top two targets was poor across the board — a 43.1 passer rating (with an interception) to Puka Nacua, and no completions to Davante Adams until the third quarter. Rough overall day for the reigning MVP.

Kyren Williams operated as the confirmed 1A lead-back and at the goal line: 3 goal-line attempts / 4 red-zone attempts, including the scoring carry from the 49ers’ 5-yard line and both called runs inside the 10-yard line on the Rams’ other red-zone trip. All 3 of his targets were caught for 24 yards, while he chipped in a modest 10 carries.

A 63.2% snap share (vs. Corum’s 22.8%) plus this usage make him the highest-priority/ranked Rams back going forward. But Corum might continue to close the gap if he keeps impressing. Even in a limited role, he was extremely efficient. He rushed for a team-high 54 yards on 10 carries and a 20.0% explosive-run rate, the second-best mark of his career (minimum 10 carries).

Puka Nacua led L.A. in every box-score category (9 official targets, 5 catches, 74 yards), and his true workload is even stronger: 11 true targets (2 erased by defensive penalties on deep shots) for a 35.5% adjusted target share. He was also tackled just short on a red-zone look

Davante Adams was quietly the most concerning pass-catcher in this matchup — official 3-of-6 for 26 yards (6 true targets, 19.4% adjusted target share), no completion with Stafford until the third quarter, a -9.9% catch rate over expected (his fifth-worst since joining L.A.) and zero red-zone or end-zone targets despite a 71.4% route participation rate matching Nacua’s. If Stafford’s passing touchdown rate comes crashing down in 2026, Adams is expected to feel the biggest impact.

The missing red-zone looks matter most for touchdown equity given a chunk of his 2025 value came from short-yardage scores.

Colby Parkinson was buried in the box score (2 official targets), but a chop-block penalty by his own team wiped out a real, executed 10-yard catch, bringing his true line to 3 targets / 2 receptions / 16 yards and a 9.7% adjusted target share. Worth tracking against Terrance Ferguson for the No. 1 TE role. Ferguson played 53% of the snaps (43% route participation) but only saw one target. Parkinson played the larger role (75.4% snap share, 60.7% route participation).

Wish I could be more optimistic about Ferguson’s role in the offense after Week 1. But he is still a stash in deeper formats. Davis Allen also got hurt in Week 1, so that could create more opportunities for Ferguson.

Next Four Matchups: Week 2 vs. NYG (Home) | Week 3 at DEN (Road) | Week 4 at PHI (Road) | Week 5 vs. BUF (Home)

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