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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Quarterbacks
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer. Here’s fantasy football lineup advice for Week 1.
Start’Em
Baker Mayfield had a tough fall from grace in 2025 as the QB17 in fantasy points per game after a wondrous QB4 campaign in 2024. Mayfield dealt with injuries to his receiver room and his offensive line while also struggling with injuries himself. In 2025, Mayfield had a bruised and battered throwing arm while also suffering a sprained MCL/PCL, a bicep tendon strain, and left shoulder issues. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 11th-worst in turnover-worthy throw rate. In a contract year, I’m expecting a big bounce-back season from Mayfield if he can stay healthy all season, which I know is a big if for Mayfield with his play style. Mayfield should have a strong Week 1 performance, but I will also say that we need to throw every Cincy defensive statistic in the trash from 2025. The Bengals completely overhauled their defense this offseason with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger, and Bryan Cook. Mayfield will be forced to chuck it this week to keep up with Cincy’s high powered offense assuming that they come out firing on all cylinders and don’t look like the middling version of this offense that we’ve seen stumble out of the gate early in the season.
Over the last four years, Jared Goff has passed for at least 4,438 yards and 29 passing touchdowns yearly, with finishes as the QB13, QB7, QB11, and QB14 in fantasy points per game. Goff hasn’t added anything with his legs (hasn’t had more than 99 rushing yards in any season since 2019, but he will pile up the stats through the air. Last year, among 38 qualifying passers, he was sixth in yards per attempt, second in adjusted completion rate, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff could have a tough matchup in Week 1 if the Saints pick up where they left off as a pass defense last year. In Weeks 12-18, New Orleans allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, and the lowest passing success rate. The counterpunch for Goff is that he was electric last year against single high coverage (Weeks 12-18 last year, New Orleans had the second-highest single high rate). Against single-high, Goff had the eighth-highest fantasy points per dropback and passer rating. I think Goff will get it done in Week 1.
Tyler Shough will get to attack a Detroit secondary in Week 1 that will be without both its starting safeties (Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch). Shough could be in line for a big day if he can pick up where he left off last year. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Shough was the QB6 in fantasy points per game while averaging 25 rushing yards per game. That rushing yardage mark per game would have placed him at 12th-best last year had he kept it up for the entire season. In Weeks 12-18, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough was 12th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, ninth in hero throw rate, and seventh in passing yards per game. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Detroit ranked 15th in passing success rate allowed while giving up the fifth-most yards per attempt and the 14th-highest CPOE. Shough could post QB1 numbers in Week 1.
Last year, after taking over as the Giants’ starter, Jaxson Dart was the QB7 in fantasy points per game. If you remove the wet fart game that he had in Week 16 against Minnesota, where he scored only one fantasy point and had 13 pass attempts and 33 passing yards, he averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game. That points-per-game mark would have made him the QB1 in fantasy points per game last year. Dart showed off his rushing ability, averaging seven rushing attempts and 40.6 rushing yards per game. He had the second-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks last year, behind only Justin Fields. Dart also wasn’t a lackluster passer last year. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 23rd in CPOE, 19th in highly accurate throw rate, and tenth in hero throw rate. Dart was also fifth in fantasy points per dropback while dealing with the 12th-highest drop rate among quarterbacks. The Giants’ second-year signal-caller will face a revamped Dallas pass defense that added Rashan Gary, Cobie Durant, Jalen Thompson, and Caleb Downs this offseason. They’ll be a much improved unit for 2026, but the question is how much? Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Dallas’s pass defense was almost non-existent as they allowed the most fantasy points per dropback, the second-most yards per attempt, and the fifth-highest CPOE. Dallas should be viewed at least as a league-average matchup for Dart, with the upside to be a very good one.
Last year, Bo Nix regressed as a passer, and with his overall production, he was still the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Nix saw his passing touchdown rate fall from 5.1% to 4.1%, and his rushing yards per game dip from 25.3 to 20.9 (16th). Nix still directed a passing offense that was fifth in neutral passing rate and tenth in neutral pace. I don’t see either of those figures changing in 2026. If anything, Denver could easily be top five in neutral pace this season with all of the news coming out of the Broncos’ camp this offseason about new playcaller Davis Webb. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 31st in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, 19th in hero throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Last year, in his two regular season meetings with Kansas City, Nix was the QB19 and QB10 in weekly fantasy scoring. He could easily be a QB1 this week against a pass defense that allowed the 13th-highest passer rating last year while ranking 19th in passing success rate and 18th in EPA per dropback allowed.
I can’t wait to see Malik Willis in his first start for the Dolphins. I know the starting resume for Willis is limited. I get it. What we have seen in limited doses over the last two years has been outstanding, though. Over the last two seasons, Willis has posted a 5.6% big-time throw rate (118 dropbacks, per PFF), 10.9 yards per attempt, and averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game. Last year, among all quarterbacks with at least 110 dropbacks, that big-time throw rate would have ranked eighth-best behind Caleb Williams, and his yards per attempt mark would have led the NFL. That rushing yardage mark per game over the last three years would have ranked first, fourth, and third among quarterbacks. Willis is facing a remade Raiders’ defense that added Quay Walker, Kwity Paye, Nakobe Dean, and Taron Johnson (just to name a few). Last year, the Raiders allowed the tenth-highest passer rating, the ninth-highest passing success rate, and the tenth-highest EPA per dropback. I don’t know if the Raiders’ pass defense will be that much of a pushover in 2026, but I also don’t know if they hit the ground running immediately out of the gate. Willis’ rushing ability gives him an incredibly high ceiling and floor for Week 1.
Last year, Bo Nix regressed as a passer, and with his overall production, he was still the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Nix saw his passing touchdown rate fall from 5.1% to 4.1%, and his rushing yards per game dip from 25.3 to 20.9 (16th). Nix still directed a passing offense that was fifth in neutral passing rate and tenth in neutral pace. I don’t see either of those figures changing in 2026. If anything, Denver could easily be top five in neutral pace this season with all of the news coming out of the Broncos’ camp this offseason about new playcaller Davis Webb. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 31st in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, 19th in hero throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback. Last year, in his two regular season meetings with Kansas City, Nix was the QB19 and QB10 in weekly fantasy scoring. He could easily be a QB1 this week against a pass defense that allowed the 13th-highest passer rating last year while ranking 19th in passing success rate and 18th in EPA per dropback allowed.
Sit’Em
Injuries crushed Jayden Daniels‘ 2025 season. Daniels dealt with a knee sprain, a right hamstring injury, a dislocated elbow, and an elbow sprain. Daniels still managed to flash the upside in his four full games played last year to remind people why they fell in love with him in the first place. In those four games, Daniels averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game, nine rushing attempts, and 44 yards on the ground. If he had kept up that pace all season, he would have been the QB7 in fantasy points per game and averaged the second-most rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. With all of the injuries he sustained last year, his stats are a muddied mess that are better off tossed in the trash, but for the sake of doing my due diligence among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 42nd in highly accurate throw rate, 38th in catchable target rate, and 25th in hero throw rate. Daniels’ rushing ability will have to carry his Week 1 fantasy production because he’ll be under duress when dropping back to throw against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Last year, Philly was fifth in pressure rate while allowing the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the third-lowest passing success rate. I hope Washington’s patchwork offensive line can give him time to throw, but I have my concerns.
Patrick Mahomes saw his season end in Week 15 last year with a torn ACL. Prior to that horrible injury, he was the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, he averaged a career-high 6.6 rushing attempts per game and 30.1 rushing yards per game. He was first in scrambles per game and 14th in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. I don’t expect those numbers to repeat this season coming off the ACL injury. Mahomes will work from the pocket more in 2026, especially to open the season. Last year, outside of the immense passing volume he saw, it was an uninspiring year for Mahomes as an accurate passer. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 18th in yards per attempt, 24th in adjusted completion rate, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate. Denver is a tough test out of the gate for Mahomes. Last year, Denver allowed the second-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, the second-lowest passing success rate, and the sixth-fewest EPA per dropback.
Last year, we only got to see Kyler Murray for five games. In the previous six seasons, he had never finished lower than QB12 in fantasy points per game. Last year, in his limited starting sample before being sidelined with a foot injury, Murray had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest aDOT, and the fifth-lowest hero throw rate. None of those numbers will make you feel warm and fuzzy, but maybe Kevin O’Connell can sprinkle some of his Minnesota magic glitter on Murray and his level of quarterbacking improves in 2026. We shall see. I’m not hopeful that Murray begins the 2026 season with a monster game, though. Last year, Green Bay allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest passing success rate, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback to quarterbacks. Also, looking at Jonathon Gannon’s coverage structure gives me worries for Murray without even stating that Gannon has innate knowledge of what Murray excels at and what he struggles with. Since 2023, Gannon has utilized two high at the third-highest rate (57.6%). Over the last two seasons, among 31 qualifying passers, against two high, Murray has had the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest highly accurate throw rate, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback against two high.
Last year, Trevor Lawrence finally had the breakout season that everyone had been waiting for as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. It was the first season in which he had eclipsed 18 fantasy points per game. Yes, part of this magical season included nine rushing touchdowns, which is probably not a sustainable mark to expect him to repeat in 2026, but he was fifth in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks, so maybe there is some carryover in his rushing touchdown production to this season. Lawrence really caught fire to close last season (Weeks 12-18) as the QB1 in fantasy points per game. During that seven-game stretch, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Lawrence was excellent as a passer, ranking third in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards per game, third in hero throw rate, 11th in catchable target rate, and second in passing touchdowns. The Browns lost Myles Garrett during the offseason, but they added Jared Verse. I know it’s a downgrade, but not by a ton. Cleveland’s pass defense was stout to close last season and could be again in 2026. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, they allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the 11th-lowest passing success rate, and the third-lowest EPA per dropback. Lawrence could rise above a tough on-paper matchup for Week 1, but it’s ok if you have some worries.
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