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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice: Running Backs
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer. Here’s fantasy football lineup advice for Week 1.
Start’Em
Bucky Irving has dealt with a number of injuries in his short career with a foot sprain and a shoulder/ AC joint sprain last year. Rewinding to 2024, he also dealt with hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues. When he was on the field last year, he averaged 20.3 touches and 86.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. His efficiency suffered massively from the injuries last year after being a wondrous per-touch monster in 2024. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, he was 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackle rate, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. Those dips are explainable, but they are still concerning for a back that is on the smaller side and has been banged up quite often over the last two seasons. Yes, Rachaad White is gone, but Irving will still have to contend with Kenneth Gainwell in what I’m projecting to be a split backfield. It’s tough projecting this matchup with all of the moves the Cincy made this offseason to overhaul their defensive line with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, and Cashius Howell. I’m treating it as a neutral matchup with the ability to be a positive one for Irving. Last year, Cincy allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and rushing success rate and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt to backs.
Kenneth Gainwell was an integral part of the Pittsburgh backfield last year for the entire season, but he really hit his stride in Weeks 11-18 as the RB7 in fantasy points per game with 13.3 touches and 85 total yards per game. His passing game usage was robust during this stretch as he was third in target share (17.5%), second in receiving yards per game (45.4), fourth in yards per route run (2.10), and first in first downs per route run (0.116). That also isn’t to say that he wasn’t also fantastic on early downs, ranking 14th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate overall for the season among backs. All of the reports out of camp are that Gainwell will split the work with Bucky Irving this season, much like Rachaad White has in previous seasons. It’s tough projecting this matchup with all of the moves the Cincy made this offseason to overhaul their defensive line with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, and Cashius Howell. I’m treating it as a neutral matchup with the ability to be a positive one for Gainwell on the ground. Last year, Cincy allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and rushing success rate and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt to backs. Even if Cincy is improved as a defense against the run, they didn’t massively overhaul their linebacker room, so Gainwell could eat through the air. Last year, Cincy allowed the sixth-most yards per target, the second-most YAC/reception, and the third-most yards per route run to backs.
MarShawn Lloyd looks primed to enter Week 1 as the Packers’ workhorse back with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner-exempt list. Just to remind everyone about Lloyd’s talent. During his final two collegiate seasons, he was 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, third and 18th in breakaway rate, and fourth and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). Lloyd can take advantage of a run defense that lost some parts but added Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Jake Golday this offseason. Minnesota could field an improved run defense in 2026, but I have to see it to believe it at this point. Last year, Minny ranked 16th in explosive run rate and 15th in yards after contact per attempt while giving up the sixth-highest rushing success rate and the fourth-lowest stuff rate.
Jonathon Brooks is a nice flex with upside in Week 1. He should at least split the work with Chuba Hubbard to open the season, with the upside to be the clear lead runner from the jump. Just to remind everyone about the talent that Brooks has, in 2024 (his final collegiate season), he ranked 21st in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in elusive rating, and 21st in yards per route run (per PFF). The Bears’ run defense struggled to close last season, and they didn’t make any massive additions this offseason to give any hope that they’ll be improved this year. Last season, in Weeks 12-18, Chicago allowed the highest rushing success rate, the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest EPA per rush.
Breece Hall had a tough time last year despite finishing as the RB20 in fantasy points per game. New York’s quarterback play was dreadful, and the offense overall was a mess, which led to them ranking 29th in points per game and red zone scoring opportunities per game. The good news is that despite those factors, he ran behind an offensive line that ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. New York’s offensive line remains largely intact while adding Dylan Parham to the mix to replace the often-injured and departed Alijah Vera-Tucker, so they could easily be a top-shelf unit in 2026. This is great news for a back that was also fourth in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackle rate last year. The Titans added to their defensive unit this offseason with John Franklin-Myers, Keldric Faulk, and Jermaine Johnson. I expect them to again be a solid run defense that could take a step forward and be a top-12 unit. Last year, Tennessee allowed the 13th-lowest rushing success rate and missed tackle rate while ranking 15th in explosive run rate. This feels like a battle of the trenches in Week 1, and I like the Jets’ offensive line to come out on top, with Hall having a solid day.
I don’t want to read too much into the preseason usage for the Titans’ backfield. Brian Daboll has a long history of utilizing one workhorse back in his offenses, so I’m still projecting Tony Pollard to be that guy. Could I be wrong and this is a 50/50 committee? Yep. Last year, Pollard ranked 15th in snap share, 17th in opportunity share, and 16th in weighted opportunities, but because of the putrid offensive situation he found himself in, he was only the RB29 in fantasy points per game. This can be traced to his five total touchdowns, which were a result of an offense that was 30th in points per game and 32nd in red zone scoring attempts per game, so it makes sense that he also ranked 49th in red zone touches. Pollard was still solid on a per-touch basis. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 25th in explosive run rate and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Jets added defensive firepower to their defensive line and linebacker room this offseason, so I project that their run defense will take another step forward in 2026. They were already a strong unit last season. Last year, New York allowed the sixth-lowest rushing success rate, the sixth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and had the tenth-highest hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage. Pollard is hopefully a volume play with RB2 upside in Week 1.
Last season, Jaylen Warren had arguably his most productive season for fantasy purposes as the RB18 in fantasy points per game. He was his usual incredibly efficient self on a per-touch basis. In 2025, Warren ranked sixth in missed tackle rate, ninth in yards after contact per attempt, 12th in rushing success rate, third in yards per route run, and seventh in first downs per route run. He set career highs in carries (211), rushing yards (958), and total touchdowns (eight). Kenneth Gainwell moved on from Pittsburgh in the offseason, but Mike McCarthy brought in his favorite son, Rico Dowdle. Warren’s role for Pittsburgh has evolved over the years from preferred passing-down back to lead back, but his role could be in flux in 2026 with the arrival of a new head coach and backfield mate. Warren can’t be counted on for more than a flex play for Week 1, with his usage up in the air. If Warren does get into the end zone in Week 1, he could easily pay off as a flex, though. Atlanta was a middle-of-the-road run defense last year to close the season. In Weeks 12-18, Atlanta was 15th in stuff rate and rushing success rate allowed while also ranking 16th in yards before contact per attempt.
Rico Dowdle did it again last season. Dowdle fought to get to the top of the Carolina running back depth chart as he wrestled the starting job away from Chuba Hubbard. In Weeks 5-18, Dowdle averaged 18.6 touches and 87.7 total yards as the RB10 in fantasy points per game. Dowdle also excelled last season on the ground and in the receiving game. He ranked 23rd in explosive run rate, 17th in missed tackle rate, tenth in yards after contact per attempt, 17th in yards per route run, and 16th in first downs per route run. After that strong season, Dowdle now finds himself reunited with Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh as a backfield complement to Jaylen Warren. Dowdle can’t be counted on for more than a flex play for Week 1, with his usage up in the air. If Dowdle does get into the end zone in Week 1, he could easily pay off as a flex, though. Atlanta was a middle-of-the-road run defense last year to close the season. In Weeks 12-18, Atlanta was 15th in stuff rate and rushing success rate allowed while also ranking 16th in yards before contact per attempt.
I’m not buying the offseason narratives that the Texans backfield will be a 50/50 split. David Montgomery will likely operate as the team’s workhorse. Last year, he was phased out of the Lions’ offensive plans as the season moved along, which led to his RB32 finish in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 12-18, he was the RB43 in fantasy points per game with a 32.1% snap rate, 8.2 touches per game, and only 42.8 total yards per game. Montgomery still has the juice to produce as a workhorse this season. Last season, he ranked 30th in missed tackle rate, but he was 12th in yards after contact per attempt. His receiving chops are also still alive and well, as he was also 22nd in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Last season, Montgomery bested Marks in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, rushing success rate, yards after contact per attempt, and yards per route run. Legit, every per-touch metric that I care about. Montgomery is the superior back, even at this stage of his career. Montgomery should have a successful Week 1 against a run defense that last season (in Weeks 12-18) allowed the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the 14th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate.
Sit’Em
Chris Rodriguez reunited with Liam Coen this offseason as he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Rodriguez and Coen spent time together during Coen’s one-year tenure as Kentucky’s offensive coordinator during the 2021 collegiate season. In that season, Rodriguez ran for 1,379 yards with 6.1 yards per carry and 12 total touchdowns. Rodriguez will look to build upon his brief run as Washington’s starter last season. In Weeks 10-18, he drew six starts while averaging 12.7 touches and 57.7 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Rodriguez could be an early down and short yardage option for the Jags this year, as he won’t be contributing much in the passing game. Last season, he had only four targets and 30 receiving yards with Washington. He was quite good as a rusher, though, ranking 12th in missed tackle rate and second in yards after contact per attempt. It’s difficult to consider Rodriguez as anything more than a touchdown-dependent flex until we see how the workload is divided up for the Jags early this season. The Browns should field a solid run defense again this season. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Cleveland allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest rushing success rate, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Chuba Hubbard followed up his big breakout 2024 season with a stinker in 2025. Last year, Chuba Hubbard fell apart as the RB40 in fantasy points per game. Yes, he dealt with a calf injury for part of the season, but he also lost his starting job during the season to Rico Dowdle. Hubbard was arguably the most inefficient running back in the NFL last year. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked dead last in missed tackle rate and explosive run rate (zero explosive runs) while also sitting at 47th in yards after contact per attempt. I expect Jonathon Brooks to lead the backfield this season, but Hubbard should still be a sizable portion of the rushing attack to open the season. This gives him flex value with some upside for Week 1. The Bears’ run defense struggled to close last season, and they didn’t make any massive additions this offseason to give any hope that they’ll be improved this year. Last season, in Weeks 12-18, Chicago allowed the highest rushing success rate, the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the 11th-highest EPA per rush.
Bhayshul Tuten will compete with Chris Rodriguez to be the lead back for the Jaguars in 2026. I want to bet on Tuten this year and his talent. Last year, Tuten was unfortunately robbed of the stretch run of his rookie season as he was sidelined by a finger injury. Before the injury, he was starting to make some noise. This could be the big breakout season for Tuten, who, on a per-touch basis, flashed the immense talent that I really liked when he was in college. Last season, among 55 qualifying backs, he ranked fifth in rushing success rate, 11th in missed tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez will remain a worry for Tuten at the goal line and for his overall touch count until we see his role fleshed out this season. That uncertainty makes it tough to count on Tuten as an RB2 in Week 1. He could ultimately produce like one this week, but it’s tough to project that at the moment. The Browns should field a solid run defense again this season. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Cleveland allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the 12th-lowest rushing success rate, and the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Quinshon Judkins had off-the-field and contract issues last year, entering his rookie season, which caused him to miss training camp and not start the season until Week 2. Once he was on the field, he was Cleveland’s workhorse back until suffering an ankle and fibula fracture in Week 16. In Weeks 2-15, he was the RB26 in fantasy points per game (RB22 in expected fantasy points per game), averaging 18.7 touches and 72.8 total yards. I wasn’t high on Judkins as a prospect, as his per-touch efficiency in college wasn’t amazing. He didn’t debunk that trend in his rookie season, either. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 40th in explosive run rate, 33rd in missed tackle rate, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. In his defense, Judkins’ offensive line didn’t do him any favors last season. Among those 49 backs, Judkins had the fifth-highest mark of yards after first contact, with 62.2% of his rushing yards coming after first contact, and he had the fourth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, with only Cam Skattebo, Ashton Jeanty, and Zach Charbonnet seeing less runway with the ball in their hands. With a rebuilt offensive line to run behind in 2026, hopefully Judkins has more room to run. That will be put to the test in Week 1 against a run defense that last year, in Weeks 12-18, allowed the sixth-fewest yards after contact per attempt, the seventh-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-lowest EPA per rush.
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