Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 1)

Fantasy Football is back. With the return comes the inevitable lineup conundrums. Just because you drafted a player highly, it doesn’t mean they need to be in your lineup for Week 1.

Each week we’ll talk through some of the riskiest and safest starts for fantasy football. Aiming to give you more confidence in your fantasy football start sit decisions.

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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Week 1

Week 1 Risky Fantasy Football Starts

Carnell Tate (WR – TEN) vs. New York Jets

Much as it was a relief to see the Titans surround Cam Ward with better options than he had last season, we might want to be cautious about starting Carnell Tate in Week 1.

Tate was the first receiver taken in this year’s draft, coming off the board with the fourth overall pick, and let’s be clear: He deserved to be taken that high after an excellent season for Ohio State, where he averaged a ridiculous 18.0 yards per reception.

Tate gives Ward a legitimate field-stretcher, who, when paired with Wan’Dale Robinson, should allow Ward to get the ball out much quicker than the 2.9 seconds he averaged in 2025.

The problem, though, is that all offseason reports out of Tennessee haven’t exactly been glowing for this offense under new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Pro Football Focus currently projects the Titans to have the fourth-worst offensive line, and even with this being a home game, the Titans are only favored by 1.5 points with the week’s lowest projected total (39.5).

In games where the Titans are forced into pass-heavy scripts, it should be easier to start Tate, but for now it might be nice to take a week and see what we have in this offense.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last season, Kyle Pitts finished as the TE2 in total fantasy points. He opens the season with a matchup against a Steelers defense that allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the tight end position, yet it still feels like a risk to start him in Week 1.

The Falcons had a pathetic quarterback competition this offseason, with Tua Tagovailoa defaulting to starter reps while Michael Penix Jr. recovered from his third career ACL injury. It remains to be seen whether Tagovailoa can keep the starter job beyond Week 1, as the preference seems to be Penix, but uncertainty about his recovery persists.

Tagovailoa was dreadful in preseason games and joint practices, leaving us with very little faith in him, and another factor remains that might be even more noteworthy.

In the 12 games Pitts played with Drake London, he averaged a mediocre 9.63 fantasy points, 4.42 receptions and 0.17 touchdowns per game. In the five games London missed, Pitts boomed, averaging 19.04 points, 7.0 receptions and 0.6 touchdowns. Those stats are massively inflated by an 11-catch game against Tampa Bay, where he went for 166 yards and three touchdowns.

Yes, Pitts was the TE2 last season, but Brock Bowers was injured. Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta also missed significant time. Everything about Pitts screams risky.

Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Even bad teams can sometimes give us dependable options at certain positions, but we might want to exercise some caution with Quinshon Judkins and the Browns’ backfield.

The Browns handed Deshaun Watson the starter role, with the widely held belief outside the building that it would be easier to move off him as the starter than Shedeur Sanders. Which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for a player who frankly has been awful ever since he arrived in Cleveland.

If the Browns are as bad as we expect them to be in the passing game, they’re likely not going to be in as many situations where they can choose to run the ball outside of first downs. Plus, Myles Garrett and former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz are no longer around to aid in keeping the score close.

If the Jaguars, who were an excellent run defense last year, ranking second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per attempt, can keep the rushing attack nullified and force the Browns into more dropbacks, it’s likely to favor Dylan Sampson more, who has a clear edge as a receiving back:

• 2.01 yards per route run vs. 1.17 for Judkins
• 7.13 yards per target vs. 5.03 for Judkins
• 8.21 yards per reception vs. 6.58 for Judkins

Judkins likely has weeks where volume alone gets him into relevancy. This matchup, however, feels very risky.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC) vs. Denver Broncos

The first Monday Night Football game of the year is a divisional matchup with plenty on the line, but you might not wish to leave your matchup down to Rashee Rice’s fortunes in this one. Last season against the Broncos, Rice managed only 38 yards on six catches. In PPR leagues, that’s 9.8 points — not disastrous but not ideal either. Plenty has changed since that Week 11 game.

Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is now with the New York Giants, and it’s fair to say he had a decisive say in Rice’s fantasy returns over the last few years.

Last season alone, Rice ranked third in total designed plays, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, despite playing only eight games. Nagy drew up an absurd amount of designed plays for Rice, resulting in him having the highest percentage rate among wide receivers with 75+ targets at 33.8%.

If you remove those plays, Rice ranked 21st in points per game and 31st in target share and yards per game. Eric Bieniemy is likely smart enough not to ignore how good Rice was on those types of plays, but we don’t know if he’ll lean on him as heavily. This is all before we mention that Rice had to rehab from knee surgery in jail not long ago and didn’t look great in training camp.

Week 1 Safe Fantasy Football Starts

Javonte Williams (RB – DAL) at New York Giants

Coming off a career year in Dallas, everything points to another strong season for Javonte Williams. The main competition Williams faced for backfield touches was Jaydon Blue, Phil Mafah and Malik Davis. Blue and Mafah are no longer with the team.

Williams has played 16+ games in each of the last three seasons. Had the eighth-highest success rate among running backs and finished with career highs in attempts, rushing yards, touchdowns and longest career rush. Williams is far enough removed from his injuries to shed the injury-prone label and start believing in his talent and the situation.

Focusing purely on Week 1, that situation looks ripe for Williams. The Giants were dead last in rushing EPA allowed last season, and that was with Dexter Lawrence in the middle of that unit, who is no longer on the team.

Reports during training camp suggest Jaxson Dart has struggled to pick up the offense. If the season starts off bumpy, and most likely without Malik Nabers, it should allow the Cowboys to easily dictate this game. That starts with a solid rushing attack from Williams.

Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV) vs. Miami Dolphins

It’s another new era for both the Miami Dolphins and the Las Vegas Raiders, with both teams sporting new starting quarterbacks, new coaching staffs and wide receiver rooms that won’t make anyone jealous. This new era, though, gives Ashton Jeanty a fresh start after what some labeled a disappointing start to his NFL career, though that might have been a somewhat harsh view.

The Raiders’ issues last season started firmly with the offensive line, which finished the season dead last in PFF’s offensive line rankings, and gave up a league-high 47 sacks and waved through anyone who wanted to tackle Jeanty. He ranked 48th out of 49 running backs in yards before contact when filtering for 100+ rush attempts.

Still, Jeanty did admirably well, ranking 17th in yards after contact and finishing with 975 rushing yards. Not a bad result given the environment. The Raiders have tackled this issue by signing Tyler Linderbaum and resetting the center market. With left tackle Kolton Miller healthy, the Raiders will have enough pieces on this offensive line to be a marked upgrade.

Miami’s defense is likely to struggle again this season, and the Raiders should feel good about starting their season at home with a positive result.

Chris Olave (WR – NO) at Detroit Lions

If you have Chris Olave on your roster, you should feel very good about your chances of starting the fantasy football season with a win. Olave finished 2025 as the fantasy WR3 in points per game from Week 10 onwards, trailing only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Olave had a 28% target share and earned 2.47 yards per route run during this stretch and should start similarly hot this year. Jordyn Tyson will miss at least the first four games, likely more. Tyler Shough will have had the offseason catered to him, unlike last season when reps were split heavily between him and Spencer Rattler, who started the season as the Saints’ QB1.

With another year of familiarity in Kellen Moore’s play-fast scheme, and no increased competition, it’s hard not to feel confident, especially when you consider the Saints play the Lions in Week 1. Two of Detroit’s best pass defenders, Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, are on injured reserve (IR), leaving a secondary wafer-thin after it was already in a bleak way following Terrion Arnold‘s release in July.

This game is projected to be a shootout, and currently sports the highest projected total of any Week 1 game (49.5).