Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Players To Buy, Sell or Hold (2026)

One of the hardest — and most important — things in every fantasy football season is correctly reacting (or not reacting) to Week 1’s results. Those first 16 games are simultaneously both the only real data we have to analyze and nowhere near a large enough sample to confidently draw conclusions from. With this in mind, I like to focus my post-Week-1 fantasy football trade advice on things that are at least hopefully likely to be sticky throughout the rest of the season.

The most important of these is how players are deployed by their coaches: Prepare to see a lot of discussion of route participation rates. Without further ado, here are the top players to buy, sell or hold on the fantasy football trade market following Week 1.

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Fantasy Football Trade Advice

Fantasy Football Players to Buy

Josh Downs (WR – IND)

Josh Downs’ final Week 1 stat line — two receptions on four targets for 37 scoreless yards — was mediocre. But there’s one encouraging number that should be far more predictive of his long-term results — route share.

Downs led the Colts’ offense with an 85% route share against Baltimore. That is higher than any single week he posted last season and 20% above his season average. Of note, Downs stayed on the field for three of the Colts’ five passing plays in 1-WR or 2-WR sets. If this keeps up, Downs’ long track record of excellent per-route stats should translate into a solid weekly play.

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

If Zay Flowers didn’t exit Week 1 early with a hamstring injury, it would already be too late to buy him. But that injury has perhaps opened one final window to acquire someone who could be the story of the season.

Flowers racked up five catches for 150 yards on just 11 routes on Sunday, absurd efficiency. He also hit pay dirt, already matching 20% of his total touchdown production from last season. This confirms my priors that Flowers is a truly elite talent who has just been unlucky on the touchdown front and is now primed for a monster year in Baltimore’s new offense.

Kaelon Black (RB – SF)

The third-round rookie led the 49ers’ backfield with 14 carries in their shocking upset Down Under on Thursday, and he looked good doing it. It is worth noting that Christian McCaffrey was reportedly dealing with cramps during the contest — this isn’t going to be a true timeshare any time soon. But Kaelon Black’s performance establishes him as — at the very least — one of the league’s most valuable handcuffs, with potential to carve out standalone value like Blake Corum. Black should be rostered in every league.

Matthew Golden (WR – GB)

Christian Watson posted the gaudy stat line, but Matthew Golden operated as the Packers’ No. 1 WR on Sunday. The second-year speedster led the team in route share (87%) and target share (26%), and he barely trailed Watson with a still-impressive 109 air yards. Especially given that the Packers’ offense actually posted a positive pass rate over expected (PROE) — a huge departure from Matt LaFleur’s usual tendencies — Golden is poised to dominate as long as this usage continues.

Makai Lemon (WR – PHI)

Makai Lemon recorded three catches in his NFL debut… for negative-five yards. The 20th overall pick was used exclusively at the line of scrimmage against the Commanders, somehow posting a negative average depth of target (aDOT) on his four targets.

But Golden was also on the field far more than we might have expected, ranking second to DeVonta Smith with a very respectable 85% route rate. Given Lemon’s exciting prospect profile, those routes should turn into actual downfield targets sooner rather than later. Combine that with the easy-button usage he already saw, and we could have a solid weekly starter by the time the season really gets going.

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

Historically, the only thing standing between Dalton Kincaid and consistent TE1 production has been his route rate. In Week 1, he posted a nice (although admittedly still not elite) 69% route share. Unsurprisingly, this turned into a good fantasy day — five catches on six targets for 130 yards. Going forward, Kincaid is a set-and-forget TE1 until proven otherwise.

Denzel Boston (WR – CLE)

Given that he’s on the Browns, it’s hard to see how Denzel Boston’s NFL debut could have gone better. He led the team in route share (90%), tied for the lead in target share (18%) and lapped the field in air yards share (58%).

Boston finished with a solid fantasy day, too, although that was admittedly almost entirely thanks to a 46-yard touchdown in the smelliest of garbage time. There’s a real chance Cleveland’s overall ineptitude keeps Boston from ever emerging as a weekly starter, but I’ll always recommend buying into a rookie flashing upside while they’re still cheap.

Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN)

Normally, I prefer buying high after Week 1 rather than attempting to buy low, which is usually easier said than done. But Jaylen Waddle’s Denver debut was so bad — one catch for two yards on just three targets — that his early-round investors may already be panicking. Denver’s offense looked terrible all around on Monday night, but Waddle still led the team with a respectable 79% route share. More importantly, I simply believe in his talent eventually winning out. If you do too, now is the time to send an offer.

Antonio Williams (WR – WSH)

Antonio Williams isn’t likely to be startable any time soon — he only ran 11 routes on Sunday. But he racked up four targets on those 11 routes, catching all four for 64 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t actually pay anything of real value to acquire the third-round rookie, but he’s a must-add. It’s better to be early than late when a young player is flashing target-earning ability, especially when they’re on a potentially exciting offense with non-elite competition.

Bucky Irving (RB – TB)

After an offseason of worrying about Bucky Irving’s role, things were great for the third-year back on Sunday. Kenneth Gainwell did see the team’s only two short-yardage carries, but Irving took the lone tote within the 10-yard line (Sean Tucker was sidelined by injury, but reports indicate he isn’t headed for much of a role even when healthy).

More importantly, Irving racked up a whopping seven targets and a 58% route participation rate. Gainwell, whose receiving ability may have been overrated thanks to playing with Aaron Rodgers last season, saw just one target on a 33% route rate. Especially given Irving also passed the eye test with the juice he showed as a rookie, he’s looking set to outperform his draft cost for the rest of the season.

DK Metcalf (WR – PIT)

A couple of close calls meant it didn’t show up in the box score, but DK Metcalf’s role was excellent on Sunday. The veteran wideout racked up 194 air yards, the second most of any player in the league.

Metcalf also ran more in-breaking routes than last season — 54% of his routes were in-breaking, up from just 34% in 2025. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ offense as a whole was shockingly pass-happy. Put these facts together, and Metcalf should easily rebound from this relatively slow start.

Fantasy Football Players to Sell

Kyle Monangai (RB – CHI)

The Bears ran absolutely wild in Week 1, and Kyle Monangai was a huge part of it. The second-year back racked up nearly 20 half-PPR points, largely thanks to a massive 61-yard touchdown run. However, Monangai’s role wasn’t all that encouraging: He saw just a 36% share of the running back carries, with 10 carries to D’Andre Swift‘s 18. Swift also saw all three of the team’s goal-line attempts.

Monangai did outpace his veteran counterpart in targets (2) and route rate (40%), but it’s hard to imagine him ever being a consistent part of this loaded Chicago passing offense. Unless he keeps ripping off huge runs and the Bears keep scoring 50 points a game, Monangai is likely to be an inconsistent, frustrating option in redraft leagues. If you can cash in on the big week and general Bears hype to trade him for weekly starter value, I’d do it.

Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG)

In the interest of full disclosure, Isaiah Likely was one of my biggest fades this offseason, so there’s a chance I’m simply doubling down on a bad take here by recommending selling him. But the underlying metrics genuinely don’t support Likely keeping up anywhere near the TE1 overall performance he just posted.

Likely’s 70% route rank was just 16th among tight ends, and his 50% snap share was all the way down at 43rd. Likely’s target and production numbers were very impressive, but he’ll be hard-pressed to maintain them unless his overall playtime increases… and defenses keep forgetting to cover him in the end zone.

Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)

Saquon Barkley averaged a 50% route participation rate in 2025. His season-low mark was 27%. On Sunday, he tied that low, running nine routes while Will Shipley ran seven. Meanwhile, Barkley failed to find any room to run behind a Philadelphia offensive line that is a far cry from the top-tier unit that helped him dominate in 2024.

Barkley’s average draft position (ADP) this offseason was a bet on a bounce-back; one week in, that bounce-back doesn’t look likely. If you can still cash in on his name brand for legit RB1 value, I’d do it.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – NO)

The Saints signed Travis Etienne Jr. to a big contract this offseason, presumably to be a workhorse in Kellen Moore’s offense. With Alvin Kamara sidelined for Week 1, the veteran should have dominated New Orleans’ backfield.

Instead, he found himself in an ugly timeshare. Kendre Miller tied Etienne in carries (nine), and undrafted free agent (UDFA) CJ Donaldson served as the team’s third-down back. Etienne’s final fantasy numbers don’t look too bad thanks to a whopping seven receptions, but this isn’t good.

Davante Adams (WR – LAR)

If you paid any attention to fantasy football discussions this offseason, you probably heard that Davante Adams’ 2025 success was largely driven by his unique role as the Rams’ go-to goal-line back. Although his numbers were otherwise down across the board, 14 touchdowns, 11 of which came from within the 10-yard line, carried his season.

With this in mind, it’s an absolutely massive red flag that Adams played just one of the Rams’ nine snaps inside the 20-yard line in Melbourne. Nine snaps (only six of which were inside the 10-yard line) is a small sample, but given how touchdown-dependent Adams’ profile is at this point, I’d recommend overreacting rather than underreacting to this change in usage.

Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)

Don’t sell low on Luther Burden III, who still has massive upside. Kalif Raymond isn’t suddenly the Bears’ No. 1 WR. However, it is undeniably concerning that Burden posted just a 68% route participation rate against the Panthers.

With Rome Odunze dealing with a calf injury, that was actually the highest among Chicago’s receivers, but it’s far lower than we normally expect from starting wideouts, which is legitimately concerning. While everyone else argues about Colston Loveland‘s donut, try to quietly sell Burden at his draft-day cost, which he should fall from at least a little given what we just saw.

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

This one is simple. Jayden Reed’s price was inflated this offseason because some fantasy managers were holding out hope he would finally see real usage outside of 3-WR sets. That didn’t happen, as his four routes in heavier personnel were good for just a 24% participation rate. This translated to an overall participation rate of just 63% for the slot specialist, right in line with his career norms. This massively caps Reed’s upside (again), making him a clear sell candidate.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB – TB)

Another player whose Week 1 role failed to live up to offseason hype was Kenneth Gainwell. He saw just one target on a 33% route participation rate against the Bengals. Combined with just five carries, his role won’t provide standalone value. If you can sell him at his draft-day cost, assuming there’s a chance that standalone value materializes, you should do it.

Pat Bryant (WR – DEN)

Pat Bryant was the only Broncos receiver to do anything on Monday, catching four of a team-leading six targets for 42 yards. As a second-year breakout candidate, he’s worth adding in all formats. But we have to keep expectations in check: Bryant was still the Broncos’ clear No. 3 WR in terms of routes, with an unusably low 58% participation rate. If someone in your league wants to buy the upside at a high price, take that deal.

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

This is a sell-high so obvious it might be impossible to actually execute. But it’s worth a try, as Week 1 will almost certainly be Chuba Hubbard’s best fantasy game of the season. Jonathon Brooks played just 13 snaps on Sunday, but he will likely only get more involved as long as he stays healthy. And even with Brooks mostly a non-factor, Hubbard’s actual usage — 10 carries and three targets — was nothing special.

Fantasy Football Players to Hold

Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)

On the one hand, Colston Loveland dropped a donut while the Bears racked up 59 points. On the other hand, he still easily led the team with an 84% route participation rate. Personally, I was out on Loveland at cost coming into the year for exactly this reason: The Bears’ offense is crowded enough that the second-year tight end is unlikely to emerge as a consistent enough option to pay off his early-round ADP.

But we shouldn’t overreact in the other direction, either. Loveland’s role was fine, and this offense is elite. He should be a TE1 this season, so I recommend simply holding him and waiting for better days if he’s already on your roster.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Rookie Kaelon Black leading the 49ers’ backfield in carries obviously isn’t what fantasy managers who spent a first-round pick on Christian McCaffrey wanted to see. But the veteran back was reportedly dealing with cramps; he still racked up his customary elite number of targets (eight). And, although his volume was lower, McCaffrey was actually more efficient on the ground and showed more juice in Week 1 than he did in 2025. Don’t overreact to Black’s usage — hold McCaffrey and expect elite RB1 production.

Tucker Kraft (TE – GB)

Tucker Kraft posted just a 48% route participation rate on Sunday, running only five more routes than Jonnu Smith. If this had come out of nowhere, it would be time to panic. However, Kraft is coming off a torn ACL suffered last November. He himself said this offseason that the team’s plan is to ease him into the season. Find another tight end to start until Kraft’s role ramps up (hopefully sooner rather than later), but don’t give up on the explosive young tight end entirely.

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

Jameson Williams’ 2026 season debut was one to forget. He tied for the league lead with two drops, and added a near-fumble on an end-around for good measure. But Williams’ actual role was elite — nine targets (23% share) and 128 air yards (56% share). As long as that usage continues, some huge fantasy days are in his future.

MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB)

MarShawn Lloyd played his second career NFL game on Sunday; it didn’t go well. The 2024 third-rounder was outsnapped by Chris Brooks (37 to 30), who also led the backfield in routes (10 to seven).

However, Lloyd led the backfield with 13 carries (Brooks saw 7). Former Steeler Kaleb Jonson did not play a snap. Green Bay’s rushing offense should bounce back when not facing Brian Flores’ blitz-happy defense. If there’s upside to be found here while Josh Jacobs remains sidelined, it’s Lloyd. Don’t give up on him just yet.

Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)

Although he wasn’t on the final injury report, Jonathon Brooks dealt with a groin injury in the lead-up to the Panthers’ season-opener. Especially given his injury history, it’s not surprising that he played just 13 snaps against the Bears. But the former second-round pick still managed to flash in his limited role, with a 48-yard sideline reception showing the upside that tempted fantasy managers this offseason. Brooks might not be the Panthers’ No. 1 RB any time soon (or ever), but he’s absolutely worth holding for at least a few more weeks.

Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)

The Raiders won’t get to play the Dolphins every week. But Ashton Jeanty’s usage in Week 1 was excellent, including six targets for an elite 20% target share. Las Vegas’ offense also looked competent overall, a huge improvement from last season. With the preseason prayer circle firmly in the rearview mirror, Jeanty is a locked-in RB1 and a steal for anyone who got him at a discount thanks to his ankle injury.

Emmett Johnson (RB – KC)

Obviously, Kenneth Walker III was the story of the Chiefs’ win over the Broncos. But he wasn’t the only Kansas City running back to flash, as fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson made the most of his eight carries and two targets. Especially with the Chiefs’ offense looking healthier— and more run-heavy — than in recent years, Johnson is a must-add as a top-tier handcuff.

Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)

The Chiefs’ passing offense didn’t accomplish much on Monday (not that they needed to), as Travis Kelce was the only player to record more than 20 receiving yards. But under the hood, Xavier Worthy was the team’s top wideout.

The speedster led or tied for team highs in route share (82%), target share (22%) and air yards share (39%). Even if we are in for a new-look, run-heavy Kansas City offense, being Patrick Mahomes‘ top option should eventually pay fantasy dividends for Worthy.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.