Remember being a kid around Christmas? Christmas Eve was a restless night as the excitement bubbled and frothed. Sleep was barely an option as the anticipation of the wonderment built. I’ve always said that the “current week of DFS is my favorite week of DFS,” and it is true. Fresh slate, new matchups and designing new rosters just butters my biscuit, as they say back home. Week 1, however, remains truly special every season. As so many NFL and fantasy fans eagerly await each season’s opener, so do DFS players. And it is finally here; the main slate we have waited so long for has arrived. And we will be going over the top NFL DFS values for Week 1.
NFL DFS Values: Week 1
To open the 2026 NFL DFS season, we get a 12-game slate with some really exciting-looking games.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential for DraftKings and FanDuel, based on various factors.
Let’s get into it.
Quarterbacks
Tyler Shough (QB – NO) @ DET | $5,600 (DraftKings)
Games with higher over/under totals are typically the ones to target for DFS. This game features a 49.5 implied total, making it one of the higher totals on this slate. Travis Etienne Jr. is in the RB2 conversation ($5,900), Chris Olave is the fifth-highest-priced wide receiver on the slate ($6,700) and Juwan Johnson is someone we will discuss later. With a projected WR1, RB2 and tight end value all on this slate, why leave the quarterback who is operating the offense out of the conversation in a high projected point total matchup?
Shough impressed last season and improved the further he got into the season. Over his last six starts, he averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game. During that span, his worst weekly positional finish was QB16. Each of those games ended with a total of 35+ points. This game is projected for over 49 points. Pieces of this game should be in lineups.
Dan Campbell’s Lions will score points and do not typically let up. This will put Shough in a more pass-heavy scheme. During the aforementioned six-game stretch last season, Shough averaged 259.2 passing yards and 25.5 rushing yards per contest.
With that in mind, Shough is a solid value pick for GPP contests for multiple lineup players, and this is a good game to stack players from both teams.
Malik Willis (QB – MIA) @ LV | $6,500 (FanDuel)
Good fantasy quarterbacks and good real-life quarterbacks are not always the same thing. Justin Fields is a recent example of this. When starting, Fields puts up numbers that have little to do with his ability as a passer. His fantasy scoring is heavily reliant on his legs. Malik Willis has above-average mobility but isn’t the most accurate or efficient passer, despite his ability to make big throws.
The Dolphins and their new quarterback open the season in Las Vegas against a Raiders team that was middle of the pack against opposing quarterbacks last season. As a defensive unit, they allowed 214.4 passing yards and 15.6 rushing yards per game to the position last season. Meanwhile, Willis has averaged just over 44 rushing yards per contest as a starter.
The over/under for this game is set at 40.5, with the Raiders favored. Willis will have the opportunity to perform under center, but his rushing ability could make him a sneaky start for GPP contests on this slate. He represents value from a floor and ceiling perspective due to his mobility.
Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell (RB – TB) @ CIN | $5,200 (DraftKings)
Kenneth Gainwell opens his first season as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer in a good matchup to put up some serious fantasy points. The Buccaneers travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals and are listed as the 3.5-point underdog. This game overall has shootout potential scribbled all over it.
Last season as an Eagle, Gainwell saw the fifth-most targets, fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards among all running backs. He also averaged 13.0 PPR points per game and had seven weekly top-12 finishes at the position.
The Bengals’ defense is improved on paper, but surrendered the most fantasy points to running backs last season. They allowed 42.9 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving touchdowns to running backs last season. Bucky Irving is expected to see the bulk of the carries, including the short-yardage and goal-line work. However, obvious passing situations will heavily favor Gainwell, and the Bucs are expected to be trailing in this game. At a $500 discount over his teammate and in a full PPR scoring setting, the better value is Gainwell.
This matchup features a 50.5 over/under. Players from both sides should be heavily considered for DFS this week. Gainwell looks like a strong value play in a potential negative game script. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests for this slate.
MarShawn Lloyd (RB – GB) @ MIN | $4,900 (FanDuel)
MarShawn Lloyd sneaks in as a value this week as a blessing of early pricing. Teammate Josh Jacobs is through the legal side of his off-field issues, but remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List while the league decides what punishment potentially awaits him. That thrusts Lloyd into a heavier expected workload. Lloyd had a good camp and a healthy preseason, leading to expectations of a heavier workload for Green Bay’s backfield.
Lloyd has seven career touches, so there is not much to reference statistically. It is a divisional matchup against the Vikings, with an over/under of 46.5 points. Lloyd, while healthy, is expected to see the bulk of the backfield work in a game where the Packers are narrow favorites.
Due to his expected role and cost, Lloyd will be a chalky pick. He is better suited for cash contests due to his projected high rostership. Lloyd is a good chalk-type selection for this slate, with all the factors at play.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – PIT) vs. ATL | $4,900 (DraftKings)
Michael Pittman Jr. enters his first season as a Steeler and in an offense that has not generated much buzz leading up to the season. Pittman sneaks in as a very under-the-radar receiving option in PPR formats. Pittman joins a wide receiver room with DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson. Metcalf has also generated very little in the way of fantasy excitement, earning more attention for his underground civilization theory than for his big-play chops downfield. Wilson, who is averaging 1.6 receptions over his last five starts, is trying to hold off rookie Germie Bernard.
Aaron Rodgers has become increasingly downfield-throw averse over the last couple of seasons. This favors a short-area, possession-style receiver that Pittman can operate as. Pittman has 100+ targets in every season he has played since his rookie year.
The Falcons allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season. While more susceptible to outside receivers, Rodgers may not have to push the ball as much in this contest, with Cooper Rush stepping in as the starter in a very last-minute change. The Falcons will be leaning heavily on Bijan Robinson, who, in all fairness, can (and will be asked) to shoulder a lot of the offensive work.
This game features a 41.5 over/under. Rodgers will lean more on Pittman than any other receiver to move the offense, setting up Pittman as a safe-floor pick with touchdown upside in this matchup.
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – TEN) vs. NYJ | $5,300 (FanDuel)
This is the gross pick for the week. It feels like there always has to be a cringe-worthy player on a winning DFS lineup. Wan’Dale Robinson saunters in from stage left. Let’s clear the air about this play and the matchup itself.
Is the Titans versus the Jets a sexy matchup? No, but one of these teams is going into Week 2 with a 1-0 record. Points shall occur, though to a less-than-expected amount based on the rest of the slate. What makes Robinson a solid play here is cost versus targets. Robinson has back-to-back 140-target seasons under his belt. He also has familiarity with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who pursued Robinson very quickly during free agency.
Robinson could easily end the season leading the Titans in targets, starting as early as Week 1. Carnell Tate is a rookie who still has plenty to prove. Cam Ward will need a safety-blanket type of receiver to overcome the less-than-ideal press out of the preseason and camp. That over-the-middle option will largely be directed at Robinson. The Jets allowed the 17th-most fantasy points to receivers last season, so they are middle of the road as an opponent.
Robinson is a GPP play, best used for multi-lineup managers. He’s a floor play with volume upside in this matchup.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) vs. DET | $3,700 (DraftKings)
We have already covered the matchup and know Chris Olave is the stronger option to stack with Tyler Shough. I still like Juwan Johnson for this slate, however. The only thing better than nearly guaranteed production is cheap production. Last season, Johnson had the seventh-most targets, fifth-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards among tight ends. The lack of touchdowns was disappointing, with only four scores coming from 111 total targets. That number strongly suggests positive regression.
Again, this matchup is stackable, has a high over/under and shootout potential. Johnson is a cost-efficient upside volume play in GPP contests.
Michael Mayer (TE – LV) vs. MIA | $4,600 (FanDuel)
The biggest surprise leading up to the main slate was the Raiders dropping the Brock Bowers news. After being aggressively drafted in redraft leagues and being talked up by basically the entire industry, Bowers had a clean-up procedure on his knee days before the start of the new NFL season — news that came out of nowhere. While not expected to be a long-term recovery, the community is trusting Klint Kubiak’s words about as much as they would trust John Wayne Gacy to babysit after a birthday party.
This thrusts a very capable Michael Mayer into a larger role in a good matchup. The Dolphins allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last season. This was an expected smash-spot for Bowers to open his season with. Mayer now has that opportunity at a heavily discounted salary.
Mayer, due to his increased role and cost, will be a chalky play this week, better used for cash games but certainly viable in GPP contests as well.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
