The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2026 Fantasy Football)

Offseason? What offseason? WE ARE BACK, FAM! Week 1 is here, and Fantasy Football is back.

Lazy Sundays curled up on the couch for hours. Sweating DFS lineups, prop bets, and fantasy scores all day. Wild waiver wire Wednesday mornings. All of it. I’m absolutely ready for ALL OF IT.

Before we get to all of the games and matchups to discuss, I have to hand out some appreciation. If you’re reading this Primer, thank you. Whether it’s the first time that you’re looking to this weekly article to help you with your lineup decisions or you’ve been consuming this content from yours truly for years, thank you.

Without your support, I wouldn’t be able to live this dream. I wouldn’t be able to support my family by analyzing the NFL and talking about this game about a game that we love so much. From the bottom of my heart, thank you.

Ok, that’s enough preamble. Let’s talk ball. Welcome to the Week 1 Primer. Enjoy.

NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC

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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 1

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -3.5, O/U 44.5
• New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake Maye
• A.J. Brown
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jadarian Price (RB)

Jadarian Price was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Seahawks to be their new Kenneth Walker (and maybe more). Walker led the backfield last year for Seattle, but they limited his usage in the red zone and in the passing game. Price remains an unknown in the passing game after only 13 targets over the last two collegiate seasons at Notre Dame. Price is a wonderful rushing talent ranking 25th and fifth in yards after contact per attempt, 31st and 3rd in breakaway rate, and 15th and 39th in elusive rating over the last two seasons in college (per PFF). Price could find plenty of running room in Week 1 with a Seattle rushing attack that was seventh in zone rushing rate last year. Last season, New England held backs to the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, but they also gave up the ninth-highest rushing success rate, had the 11th-lowest stuff rate, and surrendered the fourth-highest zone rushing success rate.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Sam Darnold (QB)

The last time we saw Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl against this Pats’ pass defense, he completed 50% of his passes with 202 passing yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, and one passing touchdown. Yeah, not great, Bob. The Pats fielded one of the best pass defenses in the league last year, so we’ll give Darnold a pass here while also stating he had a wonderful season last year. It was much better from a “real-life football” perspective than fantasy one. Among 38 qualifying passers last year, he ranked second in yards per attempt, seventh in success rate, first in highly accurate throw rate, and fourth in hero throw rate. All of that efficiency didn’t translate into fantasy production, though, in Seattle’s run-centric offense. Last season, Darnold was the QB22 in fantasy points per game. He had only seven weekly finishes as a QB1 in fantasy while finishing as the QB24 or lower in weekly scoring eight times. Against a pass defense that returns most of its backbone from a year ago (especially in the secondary), it’s tough to consider Darnold as anything more than a mid-range QB2 for Week 1. Last year, New England allowed the tenth-fewest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest passing success rate, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points via passing.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Rhamondre Stevenson was the Pats’ lead back last year as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. With TreVeyon Henderson out for Week 1, Stevenson should operate as New England’s bell cow. Stevenson was amazing on a per-touch basis, and he bested TreVeyon Henderson in EVERY discernible metric that I care about. Last year, Stevenson was fifth in explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, and yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Stevenson also surpassed Henderson in yards per route run (1.41 vs. 0.98) and pass protection. Unless Stevenson falls off in 2026, he should remain the lead back for New England after playing at least 57% of the snaps in nine of his 14 games played in 2025. Stevenson should have a productive day, but it won’t be easy sledding in the rushing department. Last year, Seattle allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest rushing success rate, and had the fifth-highest stuff rate. Stevenson will have to get it done as a receiver, which he should be able to. Last year, among 52 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranked 15th in yards per route run and first in yards per target. Seattle allowed backs to “run through the air” all season, giving up the eighth-most receiving fantasy points per game, the ninth-most receiving yards, and the most receptions to the position.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Romeo Doubs should be A.J. Brown‘s running mate this season. Last year, Doubs was the WR43 in fantasy points per game with five weeks in weekly scoring as a top-25 fantasy wideout while having only a 72.8% route share. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers, Doubs was 36th in target per route run rate, 31st in yards per route run, 18th in first downs per route run, and 27th in fantasy points per route run. Also among those 109 receivers, Doubs was 23rd in separation and fifth in route win rate. Last year, Seattle had the sixth-highest rate of two-high (55.9%). Against two high Doubs had a strong 23% target-per-route run rate and 1.86 yards per route run. Doubs should see solid volume in Week 1, but make no mistake..this is a horrible matchup lining up against Devon Witherspoon and Josh Jobe for most of the game. Last year, Seattle allowed the fewest yards per target and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Last year, Cooper Kupp was the WR58 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 14.9% target share with 1.53 yards per route run, 37.1 receiving yards per game, and a 17.6% first-read share. Kupp had more than 50 receiving yards in only three regular-season games last season. Kupp ran only 48.6% of his routes last year from the slot, but I expect that number to climb this year with Rashid Shaheed on the team from the jump. Kupp is a sit this week against a secondary that allowed the ninth-fewest yards per target and the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers last year.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Last year, after becoming a Seahawk, Rashid Shaheed had only a 61.9% route share, an 8.8% target share with 20.9 receiving yards per game, 1.05 yards per route run, and a 12.3% first-read share. This type of usage isn’t conducive to fantasy success. Yes, could it trend upward in 2026 with a full offseason to learn the ropes? Sure, but that doesn’t mean that I’m rushing to plug Shaheed into a flex spot to open the season. Last season, New England utilized single high with 51.8% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high with Seattle, Shaheed posted only an 11% target-per-route run rate and 0.74 yards per route run. Last year, against perimeter wide receivers, New England was 15th in yards per target and 18th in fantasy points per opportunity allowed. Those aren’t horrible numbers for Shaheed, but I’m sitting him until we see what his usage looks like for 2026.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Last year, Hunter Henry was the TE12 in fantasy points per game while setting a new career high in receiving yards (768) and finishing with the second-most receiving touchdowns in a season in his career (seven). Among 54 qualifying tight ends, he was 15th in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, 17th in yards per route run, and 14th in first-read share and first downs per route run. I expect Hunter Henry to take a step back in the target pecking order in New England this season with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs on the depth chart. This opening matchup isn’t kind to Henry. Last year, Seattle utilized two high at the sixth-highest rate. Against two high last year, Henry had only a 16% target-per-route-run rate and 1.08 yards per route run. Add on top that Seattle held tight ends to the 14th-fewest yards per target and ranked 15th in fantasy points per opportunity, and Henry is an easy sit this week.

AJ Barner (TE)

Last year, AJ Barner was the TE20 in fantasy points per game while finishing as a TE1 in weekly scoring six times. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, he was 27th in target share, 25th in receiving yards per game, 26th in yards per route run, 33rd in first-read share, and 26th in first downs per route run. Last year, he was fifth in total touchdowns among tight ends while also ranking 12th in red zone targets. Barner will have streamable moments in 2026, but this isn’t a week where it’s likely worth going this direction for your fantasy lineups. Last year, New England allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points per opportunity while ranking 15th in yards per target permitted to tight ends.

NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

• LAR -3.5, O/U 48.5
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Christian McCaffrey
• Puka Nacua

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Matthew Stafford had arguably the best season of his NFL career last year, taking down the MVP award. Stafford finished with a career-high passing touchdown rate (7.7%) as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. It was easily his best season since his first year with the Rams, when he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Stafford was seventh-best in yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback, 25th in adjusted completion rate, second in hero throw rate, and 13th in catchable target rate. Stafford should have time to operate from the pocket this week. Yes, San Francisco will have an improved pass rush with Nick Bosa back (limited to three games last year) and the addition of Osa Odihizuwa, but this is still a defense that had the third-lowest pressure rate and the fewest sacks in the NFL last season. Last year, the 49ers gave up the 11th-most passing touchdowns, the tenth-highest passing success rate, and the tenth-most passing yards. Stafford should have a nice Week 1. Last year, in his two games against the 49ers, he was the QB8 and QB2 in weekly fantasy scoring with at least three passing touchdowns in each game.

Kyren Williams (RB)

Last year, Kyren Williams was the RB10 in fantasy points per game after seasons as the RB10 and RB2 in fantasy points per game. Williams had to deal with more work for Blake Corum last year, but he still retained his lead role overall and in the red zone. In Weeks 7-18, Williams still saw 63% of the red zone rushing attempts while Corum helped him with the heavy lifting on early downs in between the 20s. With the workload lightened a tad, Williams did post improved rushing efficiency metrics, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 25th in missed tackle rate, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Williams should enjoy a wonderful Week 1 against the 49ers. Last year, San Francisco allowed the highest rushing success rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and had the seventh-lowest hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Blake Corum (RB)

Blake Corum is a viable touchdown-dependent flex this week with a good matchup. Last year, in Weeks 7-18, Corum helped Kyren Williams with the heavy lifting on early downs, averaging 10.5 rushing attempts and 53.6 rushing yards. He didn’t offer much through the air during that stretch with only seven targets and 27 receiving yards. If you’re looking to flex Corum this week, he’ll have to pay off in the rushing department and (hopefully) fall into the end zone. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Corum ranked sixth in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackle rate. Last year, San Francisco allowed the highest rushing success rate, the tenth-most yards before contact per attempt, and had the seventh-lowest hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Davante Adams (WR)

Last season, Davante Adams was a fantasy monster before succumbing to a hamstring injury in Week 15 that forced him to miss the rest of the regular season. In Weeks 1-14, Adams (among 86 qualifying receivers per Fantasy Points Data) was 16th in target share (23.8%), 26th in receiving yards per game (55.2), 18th in yards per route run (2.02), 23rd in first-read share (27%), and fifth in first downs per route run (0.132). He was scoring touchdowns at an insane clip with 14 in those 13 games while leading all receivers with 30 red zone targets (the closest receiver to him during that span had 19). During those 13 games, Adams was the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Adams didn’t show any falloff in his separation skills, ranking first in separation score and route win rate among 109 qualifying receivers last year. Last year, in his two games against the 49ers, he was the WR22 and WR12 in weekly scoring, averaging 9.5 targets and 82.5 receiving yards. Adams should have a strong start to the season against a secondary that allowed the 12th-most yards per target to perimeter wide receivers last season.

Mike Evans (WR)

Mike Evans is practicing, so I’m projecting him to be active in Week 1. Evans might be older, but he hasn’t slowed down when you look at his metrics. Last year, during his seven full games played, he had a 24.4% target share, a 30.6% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run. Among 109 qualifying receivers last year, those numbers would have ranked 13th-best across the board. Yes, during that sample, he had only 1.86 yards per route run and 52.6 receiving yards per game, which would have ranked 31st and 33rd among the same group of receivers, but that was more related to Baker Mayfield‘s inaccuracy than Evans slowing down. In his full games played, Evans had only a 70.9% catchable target rate, which among those 109 receivers would have ranked 84th. Evans’ on-field production didn’t match his deeper analytics and target-earning ability, as he was also second-best in separation and route win rate last season. Last year, the Rams did allow the 14th-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but they also added Trent McDuffie (2025: 66.7% catch rate and 93.0 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (2025: 63.8% catch rate and 89.1 passer rating) this offseason to address this issue. If you have Evans on your team, you’re likely starting him this week. Evans still has the talent to succeed in a tough matchup.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Over the last three seasons, Brock Purdy has finished as the QB5, QB10, and QB6 in fantasy points per game. In his four years in the NFL, he has only once finished with a passing touchdown rate lower than 7.0%. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy was sixth in passing yards per game, ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Last year, he didn’t face the Rams as he missed time with injuries. This year, he’ll have a tough matchup facing this defense. Last year, the Rams were a solid pass defense, and that’s before they added Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Myles Garrett, and Aaron Donald unretired. Last year, Los Angeles allowed the 11th-fewest yards per attempt, the ninth-lowest passer rating, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Purdy could still post QB1 numbers this week, but it won’t be easy.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Deebo Samuel rejoins the San Francisco 49ers on a one-year deal after a one-year dalliance with the Commanders. Last year, Samuel was the WR29 in fantasy points per game while putting up a varied stat line. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Samuel was 18th in target share (22.4%), ninth in yards after the catch per reception (6.6), 21st in first-read share (27.3%), and ninth-best in missed tackles forced per reception. Unfortunately, though, among the same sample of receivers, he was also 38th in yards per route run and 53rd in first downs per route run (0.076) while seeing his usual bevy of underneath targets (5.3 aDOT, 103rd out of 109 qualifying receivers). Last year, the Rams utilized zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate (76.4%). Over the last three seasons, against zone, Samuel has had a 23% target-per-route run rate and 2.06 yards per route run. Samuel is a viable PPR flex for Week 1, but the matchup is tough. Last year, the Rams allowed the 14th-fewest yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to receivers.

De’Zhaun Stribling (WR)

De’Zhaun Stribling should operate as the third or fourth option in the 49ers’ passing attack in Week 1 with Mike Evans and George Kittle playing. I love Stribling’s season-long outlook for 2026 because I worry about the rest of the pass catchers on this team, not named Stribling, staying healthy for the entire season, but that doesn’t mean that I love Stribling’s Week 1 outlook. Stribling had a solid collegiate career, with his skill set fitting what the 49ers want from their receivers. During his final two collegiate seasons, he posted 2.15 and 2.44 yards per route run with 7.3 and 6.7 yards after the catch per reception (17 missed tackles forced across both seasons, per PFF). I’m sitting him in Week 1. I need to see what his role is with all of the other talent around him.

Terrance Ferguson (TE)

I have no clue what to expect for Terrance Ferguson‘s Week 1 usage for the Rams. Last year, Ferguson had only a 34.2% route share, a 5.5% target share, a 15% target-per-route run rate, and a 7.6% first-read share. The reports out of camp and during this offseason were that he should see an expanded role in year two, but the Rams can be truthful in that estimation without having a high bar to clear. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, he was 48th in target-per-route-run rate and 32nd in yards per route run. He was essentially their deep threat with a wild 18.3 aDOT. I would have to be desperate in a DEEP league to start Ferguson for Week 1. Last year, the 49ers allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target to tight ends, but they also surrendered the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. Ferguson is likely a touchdown-or-bust dart throw for Week 1.

George Kittle (TE)

It seems like George Kittle will be ready to rock for Week 1. Now, if he’s active, will he play a full-time role for the 49ers? I doubt it, but he could still easily have a 50-60% snap rate and be heavily involved when they are passing and around the goal line. When Kittle was on the field last year, he didn’t show any signs of slowing down. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, he ranked fourth in target share (20%) and yards per route run (2.30), third in receiving yards per game (57.1) and first-read share (24.3%), and second in first downs per route run (0.139). Kittle could have another amazing season in 2026 for fantasy, but I’m willing to sit him in Week 1 with the playing time concerns and a tough matchup. Last year, the Rams allowed the third-fewest yards per target and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.

NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -3.5, O/U 50.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Baker Mayfield had a tough fall from grace in 2025 as the QB17 in fantasy points per game after a wondrous QB4 campaign in 2024. Mayfield dealt with injuries to his receiver room and his offensive line while also struggling with injuries himself. In 2025, Mayfield had a bruised and battered throwing arm while also suffering a sprained MCL/PCL, a bicep tendon strain, and left shoulder issues. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 11th-worst in turnover-worthy throw rate. In a contract year, I’m expecting a big bounce-back season from Mayfield if he can stay healthy all season, which I know is a big if for Mayfield with his play style. Mayfield should have a strong Week 1 performance, but I will also say that we need to throw every Cincy defensive statistic in the trash from 2025. The Bengals completely overhauled their defense this offseason with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger, and Bryan Cook. Mayfield will be forced to chuck it this week to keep up with Cincy’s high powered offense assuming that they come out firing on all cylinders and don’t look like the middling version of this offense that we’ve seen stumble out of the gate early in the season.

Bucky Irving (RB)

Bucky Irving has dealt with a number of injuries in his short career with a foot sprain and a shoulder/ AC joint sprain last year. Rewinding to 2024, he also dealt with hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues. When he was on the field last year, he averaged 20.3 touches and 86.5 total yards as the RB17 in fantasy points per game. His efficiency suffered massively from the injuries last year after being a wondrous per-touch monster in 2024. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, he was 43rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackle rate, and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. Those dips are explainable, but they are still concerning for a back that is on the smaller side and has been banged up quite often over the last two seasons. Yes, Rachaad White is gone, but Irving will still have to contend with Kenneth Gainwell in what I’m projecting to be a split backfield. It’s tough projecting this matchup with all of the moves the Cincy made this offseason to overhaul their defensive line with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, and Cashius Howell. I’m treating it as a neutral matchup with the ability to be a positive one for Irving. Last year, Cincy allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and rushing success rate and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt to backs.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB)

Kenneth Gainwell was an integral part of the Pittsburgh backfield last year for the entire season, but he really hit his stride in Weeks 11-18 as the RB7 in fantasy points per game with 13.3 touches and 85 total yards per game. His passing game usage was robust during this stretch as he was third in target share (17.5%), second in receiving yards per game (45.4), fourth in yards per route run (2.10), and first in first downs per route run (0.116). That also isn’t to say that he wasn’t also fantastic on early downs, ranking 14th in explosive run rate and missed tackle rate overall for the season among backs. All of the reports out of camp are that Gainwell will split the work with Bucky Irving this season, much like Rachaad White has in previous seasons. It’s tough projecting this matchup with all of the moves the Cincy made this offseason to overhaul their defensive line with the additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, and Cashius Howell. I’m treating it as a neutral matchup with the ability to be a positive one for Gainwell on the ground. Last year, Cincy allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate and rushing success rate and the fourth-most yards before contact per attempt to backs. Even if Cincy is improved as a defense against the run, they didn’t massively overhaul their linebacker room, so Gainwell could eat through the air. Last year, Cincy allowed the sixth-most yards per target, the second-most YAC/reception, and the third-most yards per route run to backs.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Last year, Chris Godwin had a slow ramp-up in 2025, coming off a horrific ankle fracture in 2024. After coming back in Week 5, he had a fibula injury that delayed his return to a full-time role until Week 13. Once he was back, in Weeks 13-18 (59.7% slot), he had a 16.8% target share, 49.8 receiving yards per game, 1.88 yards per route run, a 21.2% first-read share, and 0.107 first downs per route run. The yards per route run and first downs per route run in that stretch loudly state that Chris Godwin isn’t washed or over the hill, as he was also the WR32 in fantasy points per game. Baker Mayfield could lean heavily on Godwin if Emeka Egbuka is being followed by DJ Turner all day. The coverage matchup for Godwin could also work in his favor. Last year, Cincy utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (56.7%). In Weeks 13-18, Godwin had 1.71 yards per route run and a 21.3% first-read share against single high. Cincy was also horrible at defending the slot, giving up the fifth-most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to the position.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Over the last two seasons, Tee Higgins has been the WR13 and WR5 in fantasy points per game. Last season, with Joe Burrow under center in Weeks 14-18, Higgins had an 18.8% target share with 67.8 receiving yards per game, 2.20 yards per route run, a 25.6% first-read share, and 0.106 first downs per route run. Those are all incredibly impressive per-route metrics. For context, if Higgins had kept up that pace for an entire season with Burrow, he would have ranked 12th in receiving yards per game, 19th in yards per route run, 28th in first-read share, and 17th in first downs per route run among wideouts (minimum 200 routes). If this offense doesn’t look stuck in the mud for Week 1, Higgins should get off to a nice start against a secondary that allowed the tenth-most yards per target and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Cade Otton (TE)

Last season, Cade Otton was the TE24 in fantasy points per game with only three weeks as a TE1 in weekly scoring. Otton had a 15.3% target share, 1.27 yards per route run, and a 14.9% first-read share. He drew only six red zone targets all season (39th among tight ends). He’s a viable streaming option for Week 1 against a Cincy defense that was ripped in half by tight ends last year. Last season, Cincy allowed the third-most yards per target and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Emeka Egbuka (WR)

Emeka Egbuka faded after Week 5 last year after he sustained a hamstring injury, and Baker Mayfield‘s injury severely impacted his ability to feed catchable targets to the receiving options in Tampa Bay. In Weeks 1-5, Egbuka was the WR3 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22.1% target share with 89 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, a 26.1% first-read share, and 0.104 first downs per route run. Had Egbuka kept up that pace all season, he would have ranked 19th in target share, third in receiving yards per game, fourth in yards per route run, 26th in first-read share, and 20th in first downs per route run. Sadly, he didn’t keep up that pace. In Weeks 6-18, despite still drawing a 23.1% target share with a 28.9% first-read share, Egbuka had only 41.1 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and 0.052 first downs per route run as the WR55 in fantasy points per game. Egbuka has dealt with a toe injury in camp, which is concerning, but his coverage and possible shadow matchups in Week 1 concern me more. Last year, Egbuka ran 63.5% of his routes from the perimeter, which means he could see D.J. Turner for most of Week 1. Last year, Turner was one of the best shutdown corners in the NFL, following D.K. Metcalf (twice), Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, Zay Flowers (twice), and Gabe Davis on at least 60% of their routes. In those matchups, he allowed only one receiving touchdown, and only Jefferson surpassed 70 receiving yards in his coverage. An added worry is also Cincy’s usage of single high (sixth-highest last year, 56.7%). Last year, when Egbuka was at the height of his powers (Weeks 1-5), against single high he only had 1.36 yards per route run. Egbuka could get by in Week 1 with volume and some timely slot usage to get him away from Turner, but I don’t think it’ll be a blow-up game.

NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -7, O/U 49.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Chris Olave

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Over the last four years, Jared Goff has passed for at least 4,438 yards and 29 passing touchdowns yearly, with finishes as the QB13, QB7, QB11, and QB14 in fantasy points per game. Goff hasn’t added anything with his legs (hasn’t had more than 99 rushing yards in any season since 2019, but he will pile up the stats through the air. Last year, among 38 qualifying passers, he was sixth in yards per attempt, second in adjusted completion rate, fourth in highly accurate throw rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Goff could have a tough matchup in Week 1 if the Saints pick up where they left off as a pass defense last year. In Weeks 12-18, New Orleans allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback, the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, and the lowest passing success rate. The counterpunch for Goff is that he was electric last year against single high coverage (Weeks 12-18 last year, New Orleans had the second-highest single high rate). Against single-high, Goff had the eighth-highest fantasy points per dropback and passer rating. I think Goff will get it done in Week 1.

Tyler Shough (QB)

Tyler Shough will get to attack a Detroit secondary in Week 1 that will be without both its starting safeties (Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch). Shough could be in line for a big day if he can pick up where he left off last year. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Shough was the QB6 in fantasy points per game while averaging 25 rushing yards per game. That rushing yardage mark per game would have placed him at 12th-best last year had he kept it up for the entire season. In Weeks 12-18, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Shough was 12th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, ninth in hero throw rate, and seventh in passing yards per game. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Detroit ranked 15th in passing success rate allowed while giving up the fifth-most yards per attempt and the 14th-highest CPOE. Shough could post QB1 numbers in Week 1.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Travis Etienne excelled last year as the Jags’ RB1 with an RB13 finish in fantasy points per game. He was 11th in snap share, 13th in opportunity share, tenth in weighted opportunities, and fifth in red zone touches. Etienne soaked up 296 touches, producing 1,399 total yards. He’s set to see a similar workload in 2026 with the Saints. Etienne was disappointing on a per-touch basis, ranking 37th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackle rate, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Those metrics are worrisome, but Etienne should see enough volume that it won’t matter, especially with Alvin Kamara sidelined. Etienne could begin his Saints career with a nice game in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Detroit allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt, and the eighth-most EPA per rush.

Devaughn Vele (WR)

Last season, in his final five games of the season, Devaughn Vele showed signs of life with two top-36 weeks in fantasy scoring (WR7, WR32). During that stretch, he had a 15.9% target share, 1.64 yards per route run, 0.097 first downs per route run, and a 16.2% first-read share. Vele isn’t the sexiest name, but in deeper leagues he’s a viable flex play for Week 1. Last year, Detroit allowed the 12th-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers.

Bryce Lance (WR)

With Jordyn Tyson injured to begin the season, I expect Bryce Lance to be in the starting trio of receivers for the Saints. Lance could see a limited role in Week 1 as the team’s field stretcher, but he could walk away with a strong stat line. In Lance’s final collegiate season, among all FBS/FCS wide receivers with at least 50 targets, he ranked sixth in yards per route run, eighth in yards per reception, and eighth-best in receiving grade. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Detroit struggled to defend the deep ball, giving up the second-most deep passing yards per game, the sixth-highest passer rating to deep passes, and the third- highest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. Lance is a deep league flex that could pay off handsomely in Week 1.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Last year, Juwan Johnson finished with a career high in targets, receptions, and receiving yards as the TE11 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Johnson was 13th in target share, seventh in receiving yards per game, 15th in yards per route run, 11th in first-read share, and 23rd in first downs per route run. Johnson could easily post TE1 numbers in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, Detroit ranked 15th in yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity allowed to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Jameson Williams had a tale-of-two-halves season in 2025. There are a lot of reasons why it worked out that way that I’ll dive into shortly. In Weeks 1-9, he was the WR46 in fantasy points per game with a 14.9% target share (15.2 aDOT), 44.4 receiving yards per game, 1.54 yards per route run, a 14.9% first-read share, and 0.074 first downs per route run. During this stretch, Williams was just the low-volume field-stretching option while Sam LaPorta was healthy. John Morton was still calling plays, and it looked like Williams was on his way to a bust season. Then Sam LaPorta was lost for the season in Week 10, and Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, and everything changed for the Detroit speedster. In Weeks 10-18, Williams was the WR11 in fantasy points per game while seeing an 18.5% target share (11.5 aDOT) with 84.7 receiving yards per game, 2.34 yards per route run, a 21.1% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run. Williams’ target share and first-read share put him in the WR2/3 bucket, while his per-route efficiency and three 100-yard receiving games vaulted him higher. His aDOT came down, and he was more involved weekly as a central cog of the offense. So the question is which version of Williams will we see in 2026? Well, that’s tough to say because Drew Petzing will be calling plays, and he has had his own struggles in previous seasons putting wide receivers in the best spot to produce (hello, Marvin Harrison Jr.). If this game against the Saints turns into a shootout, Williams could have a strong Week 1, but I wouldn’t trust him as more than a WR3/flex to open the season. The Saints secondary was stout to close last season. In Weeks 12-18, they allowed the second-lowest yards per target and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to perimeter wide receivers.

Sam LaPorta (TE)

Before his 2025 season was lost to a back injury, Sam LaPorta was the TE7 in fantasy points per game. The back has healed up well over the offseason. Despite the injury-shortened season, LaPorta was still one of the most explosive tight ends in the NFL on a per-route basis. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he ranked tenth in target share (17.8%), sixth in receiving yards per game (54.3), fifth in yards per route run (2.14), and eighth in first downs per route run (0.100). LaPorta doesn’t have the best matchup to open the season, but he could still get in the end zone and finish as a TE1 in Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 12-18, New Orleans allowed the ninth-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends.

NE vs. SEA | SF vs. LAR | TB vs. CIN | NO vs. DET | NYJ vs. TEN | BAL vs. IND | ATL vs. PIT | CHI vs. CAR | CLE vs. JAC | BUF vs. HOU | MIA vs. LV | GB vs. MIN | WAS vs. PHI | ARI vs. LAC | DAL vs. NYG | DEN vs. KC