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Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Max Scherzer (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
Expert
Recommendation
67%
Recommended by
34 of 51 experts
33%
Recommended by
17 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 8# 9
Best Rank# 3# 4
Worst Rank# 13# 14
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 22# 23
Best Rank# 22# 21
Worst Rank# 25# 25
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts222232
Wins1313
Saves00
ERA3.563.36
WHIP1.171.11
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 10
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 9# 10
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 5# 10
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 13
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 8
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 8
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 8
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 8
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 8# 9
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 7# 9
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 7# 11
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 7# 9
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 6# 9
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 7# 9
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 6# 10
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 8# 9
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 9
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 3# 11
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 4# 13
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 7# 8
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 7# 9
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 12
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 7# 8
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 6# 10
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 4# 8
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 9# 11
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 7# 9
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 7# 10
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 9# 12
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 8# 9
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 8# 14
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 5# 11
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 8# 12
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 6# 4
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 6
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 7
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 7
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 6
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 8# 7
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 9# 4
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 9# 8
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 4
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 6
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 10# 7
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 10# 6
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 11# 7
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 12# 7
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 12# 11
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 12# 7
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 13# 10
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1212
   
Games Started1212
   
Innings Pitched71.267.1
   
Wins55
   
Losses54
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed5470
   
Earned Runs2628
   
Home Runs Allowed910
   
Strikeouts9692
   
Walks2323
   
ERA3.283.74
   
WHIP1.081.38
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3130
   
Games Started3130
   
Innings Pitched190.0179.4
   
Wins1313
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed161152
   
Earned Runs7567
   
Home Runs Allowed2425
   
Strikeouts222232
   
Walks6047
   
ERA3.563.36
   
WHIP1.171.11
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Max Scherzer
SP - LAD
Max Scherzer
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on six hits and no walks while striking out six over five innings in Tuesday's loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Sep 8th
RHP Max Scherzer blanked the Reds on Saturday when he allowed just two hits with two walks and seven strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in the Dodgers' 5-1 win.
Jon Mathisen
Sun, Sep 19th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed six earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 3rd
Max Scherzer went eight innings on Sunday, seven of them being perfect before giving up a hit in the eighth inning. He also struck out nine batters on his way to the 3,000 strikeout milestone.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on three hits and no walks while striking out seven over 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Aug 28th
RHP Max Scherzer earned his 13th win of the season on Monday when he surrendered one unearned run on six hits with 13 strikeouts over eight innings as the Dodgers beat the Cardinals 5-1.
Jon Mathisen
Mon, Sep 6th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on two hits and two walks while striking out 11 over 8 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Saturday.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sun, Aug 22nd
RHP Max Scherzer was dominant on Wednesday, allowing just three hits with zero walks and nine strikeouts over six innings as the Dodgers took out the Braves by a score of 4-3.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Sep 2nd
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and three walks while striking out four over 4 1/3 innings in Sunday's loss to the Reds. The loss drops him to 7-7 on the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Aug 16th
RHP Max Scherzer earned the win on Thursday when he allowed just two hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings as the Dodgers blanked the Padres 4-0.
Jon Mathisen
Fri, Aug 27th
Notes 
 Nola bounced back from his disappointing 2019 campaign, and looked much closer to the 2018 breakout version of himself last year. His set a career mark in strikeout rate (33.2%, which ranked in the top nine percent in the league) and swinging strike rate (13.4%), and brought his walk rate down to just eight percent. Nola also got batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate of 38.1%, far better than he had ever done in his career, and they made contact less than ever, at a rate of only 59.1%. The reason for the change was Nola relying far less on his fastball and more on his changeup, which kept hitters off balance and made both pitches more effective. Nola doesn't throw particularly hard, so his success relies much more on command and finding the right pitch mix, both of which he excelled at in 2020. If he can keep that going in 2021, and it's a good bet he will, he should be considered a fantasy ace.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Scherzer had a decent season for a mortal, but for someone with his career track record, it was a major disappointment. His 3.74 ERA was his highest since 2012, his 1.38 WHIP the highest of his career, and his 7.8% walk percentage his worst in a decade. Scherzer still struck out plenty of batters but entering his age-37 season and with a ton of mileage on his arm, it's only fair to accept that the old Scherzer is gone for good. But though he may not be a consensus top-three starter anymore, he's still perfectly capable of being a fantasy ace. After all, Scherzer's velocity hasn't declined much, and his 31.2% strikeout rate was tied for 10th among starters. Scherzer likely won't reach 200 innings pitched again and his ERA seems destined to remain above 3.00 going forward, but he's far from someone to avoid in fantasy drafts.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Scherzer's 4.21 xERA from the 2020 season was the first time that he didn't rate out well since Statcast began tracking this data in 2015. His surface level numbers didn't suffer all that much, especially when it came to strikeouts, which makes this a dangerous profile to bet on. And that's before we mention the fact that Scherzer will turn 37 this summer. Can we trust him to stay healthy over the course of a full season? It never feels good betting against Scherzer, but there are some safer options going around his ADP right now.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros