Who Should I Draft?

Aaron Nola or Trevor Bauer (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Trevor Bauer
SP - CIN
Trevor Bauer
Expert
Recommendation
78%
Recommended by
46 of 59 experts
22%
Recommended by
13 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 7# 10
Best Rank# 3# 1
Worst Rank# 13# 17
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 25# 31
Best Rank# 23# 30
Worst Rank# 31# 46
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts210218
Wins1414
Saves00
ERA3.213.33
WHIP1.141.19
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 7# 15
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 9# 15
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 5# 9
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 5# 8
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 6# 8
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 6# 10
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 8
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 6# 11
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 6# 11
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 8# 9
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 6# 7
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 3# 14
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 7# 8
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 6# 9
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 3# 17
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 6# 10
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 7# 8
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 8# 11
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 11
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 9# 11
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 4# 11
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 6# 10
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 7# 11
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 7# 10
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 7# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 8# 9
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 6# 7
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 4# 11
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 13# 17
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 7# 10
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 6# 10
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 10# 11
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 4# 9
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 7# 8
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 4# 10
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 11
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 6# 8
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 6# 12
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 4# 11
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 6# 11
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 6# 9
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 11
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 4# 8
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 10
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 4# 10
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 6# 9
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 5# 1
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 8# 7
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 8# 7
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 7
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 8
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 9# 8
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 9# 5
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 10# 8
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 10# 5
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 9
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 10# 5
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 10# 9
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 12# 11
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Trevor Bauer
SP - CIN
Trevor Bauer
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3328
   
Games Started3327
   
Innings Pitched212.2175.1
   
Wins1712
   
Losses66
   
Saves01
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed149134
   
Earned Runs5643
   
Home Runs Allowed179
   
Strikeouts224221
   
Walks5857
   
ERA2.372.21
   
WHIP0.971.09
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Trevor Bauer
SP - CIN
Trevor Bauer
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3231
   
Games Started3230
   
Innings Pitched196.5187.0
   
Wins1414
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed169160
   
Earned Runs7069
   
Home Runs Allowed2019
   
Strikeouts210218
   
Walks5562
   
ERA3.213.33
   
WHIP1.141.19
   
  Aaron Nola
SP - PHI
Aaron Nola
Trevor Bauer
SP - CIN
Trevor Bauer
News 
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in Thursday's loss to the Atlanta Braves. The loss drops him to 12-6 on the season.
Mike Maher
Fri, Sep 20th
Trevor Bauer (2-4) earned the win Sunday against the Diamondbacks, allowing one run on four hits and one walk over eight innings. He struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Sep 16th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed four earned runs on six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings in Monday's loss to the Braves. The loss drops him to 12-5 on the season.
Mike Maher
Tue, Sep 10th
Trevor Bauer did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Mariners, allowing two runs on three hits and three walks over 6.1 innings. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Sep 11th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed five earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out six over four innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday.
Mike Maher
Thu, Sep 5th
Trevor Bauer did not factor into the decision in Wednesday's win over the Phillies, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 5th
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed three earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Sunday's loss to the Marlins. The loss drops him to 12-4 on the season.
Mike Maher
Mon, Aug 26th
Trevor Bauer (10-12) took the loss in game one of Saturday's double header against the Cardinals, allowing six runs on seven hits and three walks over four innings. He struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Aug 31st
 Phillies starter Aaron Nola allowed two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in Tuesday's win over the Red Sox. The win brings him to 12-3 on the season.
Mike Maher
Wed, Aug 21st
Trevor Bauer will not make his scheduled start Friday against the Cardinals due to inclement weather.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Aug 30th
Notes 
 Nola took another major leap forward last year, and while he may never be a 300 or even 250 strikeout guy like the handful of pitchers being drafted above him, 220+ with a sub 1.00 WHIP and 2.50 ERA will certainly warrant a third round pick
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Prior to an injury in the second half, Bauer was among the top pitchers in baseball. He still struck out 221 batters in 175 innings, but with health, those numbers could easily climb to 270 in 215 innings
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 While Nola's 2018 surface numbers suggest a big breakthrough, the advanced metrics show that he has been largely the same pitcher over the last three seasons, just in more innings. His strikeout and walk rates remained nearly identical, and he generated a similar amount of soft contact, but the difference was that his left-on-base percentage rose and his BABIP allowed dropped in a big way. As a result, his ERA was much lower than his FIP and xFIP, after lagging behind those metrics in 2016 and 2017. Nola's peripherals have consistently indicated that his true skill is that of a pitcher with a low-3.00s ERA and WHIP in the 1.10-1.20 range, so that' should be our baseline expectation for 2019.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Bauer took a big step forward as a pitcher in 2017, and then last year he finally put it all together and performed like an ace. The big increase in his strikeout rate over the last two seasons is the biggest ingredient in his success, but he was also somewhat fortunate in terms of his home run rate last year after being unlucky in that regard the previous season. His walk rate is still a bit high, and he is a little risky just based on the fact that he had never produced a sub-4.00 ERA or sub-1.30 WHIP before last year, but the skills are certainly there for another strong season.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Nola won't sustain a pristine 2.37 ERA, but only nine starters posted a higher FIP than his 3.01. He yielded the second-lowest hard-hit rate (25.1%) behind Zack Wheeler and should keep striking out more than a batter per frame with support from his 12.4% swinging-strike rate. Although 2018 represents his ceiling, the 25-year-old's regression should still represent a lower-level ace.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
A viable Cy Young Award contender before suffering a stress fracture in his right fibula, Bauer boasted a 2.21 ERA and 221 strikeouts over 175.1 spectacular frames. Only Jacob deGrom bested him in FIP (2.44), and he leaned more on a slider that yielded a -8 wRC+. If the injury depresses his value, pounce on a top-10 stud.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros