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Who Should I Draft?

Anthony Rizzo or Nick Castellanos (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Anthony Rizzo
1B - CHC
Anthony Rizzo
Expert
Recommendation
72%
Recommended by
18 of 25 experts
28%
Recommended by
7 of 25 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 49# 56
Best Rank# 26# 40
Worst Rank# 65# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 85# 99
Best Rank# 67# 75
Worst Rank# 90# 105
   
Projections 
   
Runs9287
Home Runs2927
RBI8687
Stolen Bases26
Batting Average.269.267
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 49
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 59# 61
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 55# 59
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 48# 58
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 51# 56
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 58# 74
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 42# 54
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 51# 59
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 44# 48
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 42# 63
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 63# 66
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 40# 66
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 59# 78
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 58# 65
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 38# 52
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 26# 47
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 41# 52
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 48# 57
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 50# 40
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 63# 48
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 51# 49
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 56# 54
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 65# 55
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 57# 56
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 59# 56
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Anthony Rizzo
1B - CHC
Anthony Rizzo
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats218203
   
Runs3726
   
Hits4945
   
Singles2228
   
Doubles116
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs1411
   
RBI3424
   
Stolen Bases03
   
Caught Stealing21
   
Walks1928
   
Strikeouts6938
   
Batting Average.225.222
   
On Base Pct.298.342
   
Slugging Pct.486.414
   
On-base Plus Slugging.784.755
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Anthony Rizzo
1B - CHC
Anthony Rizzo
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats587553
   
Runs9287
   
Hits157146
   
Singles8289
   
Doubles4127
   
Triples42
   
Home Runs2927
   
RBI8687
   
Stolen Bases26
   
Caught Stealing23
   
Walks4875
   
Strikeouts15898
   
Batting Average.269.267
   
On Base Pct.322.351
   
Slugging Pct.501.469
   
On-base Plus Slugging.823.820
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nick Castellanos
LF,RF - CIN
Nick Castellanos
Anthony Rizzo
1B - CHC
Anthony Rizzo
News 
 Reds OF Nick Castellanos is expected to return to the Reds lineup on Friday.
Jack Mannis
Thu, Mar 4th
 
 Reds OF Nick Castellanos (finger) remains out of the lineup Thursday against the Royals.
Brad Camara
Thu, Mar 4th
 
 Cincinnati Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos was scratched from Tuesday's Cactus League game vs. the Angels with a sore right middle finger. He's been replaced in the lineup by TJ Friedl.
Jon Mathisen
Tue, Mar 2nd
 
Notes 
 Castellanos hit for plenty of power last season with the Reds, but it was far from the full breakout season many expected. His strikeout rate jumped to 28.5%, his batting average cratered to a career-low .225, and his wOBA was his worst mark since 2015. But Castellanos was also the victim of some pretty terrible luck, given that he had an expected batting average of .273 and a strong 46.7% hard-hit rate. With a full year in Great American Ballpark, Castellanos should fully live up to the hype he had coming into the 2020 season if he can just have even normal luck. Draft him with confidence as a likely strong four-category contributor.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Rizzo's average dropped to just .222 last year and his counting stats waned, though the latter failing was much more due to the lack of production from the rest of the Cubs lineup. His walk and strikeout rates, however, stayed mostly in line, and his BABIP was an artificially low .218 (career mark of .289), which is partly why there was such a gap between his xBA of .266 and his actual batting average. With that said, Rizzo didn't hit the ball nearly as hard last year, as he saw career worsts in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. He likely won't ever be the player he was at his peak, but there's still plenty in his bat that can help fantasy managers, including the handful of steals he will throw in each year. He's a starting-caliber first baseman still, without question, and he'll go at a discount because of last year's numbers.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 280 - 35 - 0
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
275 - 30 - 5
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
 Castellanos posted a career-high ISO in 2020, but it hardly mattered due to a career-worst .257 BABIP. His previous career-low was .294 back in 2013. That number was above .300 in every other season of his career. We saw a glimpse of what he looked like when everything was clicking, and Castellanos appeared to be one of the best hitters in baseball early on in 2020. The expected stats still look great, which makes him someone to invest in come draft day.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros