Who Should I Draft?

Blake Snell or James Paxton (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
58 of 59 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 59 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 8# 14
Best Rank# 3# 11
Worst Rank# 16# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 28# 49
Best Rank# 27# 47
Worst Rank# 30# 55
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts216196
Wins1413
Saves00
ERA3.153.46
WHIP1.181.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 12# 19
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 7# 22
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 10# 28
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 11# 15
   
Brad Richter
DailyOverlay
# 7# 15
   
Michael Beller
The Athletic
# 7# 16
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 7# 12
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 9# 15
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 12# 22
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 5# 18
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 8# 15
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 11# 15
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 10# 16
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 7# 12
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 14# 24
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 9# 11
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 6# 16
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 3# 13
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 6# 15
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 8# 16
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 7# 27
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 9# 15
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 9# 14
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 8# 14
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 9# 16
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 9# 16
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 10# 12
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 7# 12
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 8# 15
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 10# 17
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 9# 21
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 12# 31
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 8# 13
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 8# 19
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 8# 17
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 9# 16
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 11# 13
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 7# 19
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 6# 17
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 7# 15
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 7# 14
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 5# 18
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 9# 14
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 9# 28
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 8# 20
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 8# 16
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 6# 12
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 10# 13
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 18
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 11# 15
   
Bart Wheeler
Hail to Fantasy Football
# 9# 15
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 8# 16
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 7# 16
   
Jason Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 6# 21
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 9# 19
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 8# 13
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 5# 18
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 8# 13
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 16# 12
   
  Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3128
   
Games Started3128
   
Innings Pitched181.1160.1
   
Wins2111
   
Losses56
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed112134
   
Earned Runs3867
   
Home Runs Allowed1623
   
Strikeouts221208
   
Walks6442
   
ERA1.893.76
   
WHIP0.971.10
   
  Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3228
   
Games Started3228
   
Innings Pitched182.9166.2
   
Wins1413
   
Losses87
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed145144
   
Earned Runs6464
   
Home Runs Allowed1921
   
Strikeouts216196
   
Walks7245
   
ERA3.153.46
   
WHIP1.181.14
   
  Blake Snell
SP - TB
Blake Snell
James Paxton
SP - NYY
James Paxton
News 
 Blake Snell allowed one run on two hits and three walks while striking out three through 1 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 24th
An MRI on James Paxton's left glute revealed nerve irritation.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Sep 28th
 Blake Snell's arm felt good following Tuesday's two-inning start against the Dodgers, leaving him on track for Monday's turn against the Red Sox, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 19th
James Paxton was removed from Friday’s start versus the Rangers with a tight left glute.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 27th
 Blake Snell did not factor into the decision against the Dodgers on Tuesday, pitching two perfect innings and striking out four.
John Aubin
Wed, Sep 18th
James Paxton struck out seven and allowed one run (none earned) on three hits and zero walks across six innings while earning a victory in a 7-2 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 22nd
 Blake Snell (elbow) is scheduled to return on Tuesday versus the Dodgers.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Sep 13th
James Paxton allowed one run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts across five innings while earning a win against the Blue Jays on Saturday.
John Aubin
Sun, Sep 15th
 Blake Snell (elbow) is joining the Rays in California for their upcoming series against the Angels and Dodgers, MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM reports.
John Aubin
Fri, Sep 13th
James Paxton gave up four hits and three walks while striking out seven through 6 2/3 scoreless innings to take the win over the Red Sox on Monday.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 10th
Notes 
 Snell may have posted the single greatest second half of any pitcher in the last 50 years with a 1.17 ERA, .155 BAA and 12.7 K/9. There is a chance he finishes as the #1 fantasy pitcher this season, but both Scherzer and Sale are safer bets because of their sustained reliability
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted back-to-back seasons with an excellent strikeout rate and WHIP, but his ERA grew by nearly a run last year thanks to a spike in his home run rate. Under normal circumstances that could be chalked up to an outlier season, but Paxton is moving to a much more homer-friendly home park this season so it is possible the long ball issue could linger. Last season's 160 1/3 innings also represented a career-high for Paxton, who is not exactly known for his durability. Expect him to be quite good when he's on the mound, but don't expect more than about 150 innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Snell experienced a massive breakout in 2018, establishing himself as a bonafide fantasy ace. It's fairly obvious that his 1.89 ERA is due for some regression, but the question is how much. He cut his walk rate, but it is still a bit higher than most of the top-tier starters, and his .241 BABIP allowed and 88 percent left-on-base percentage are highly unlikely to happen again. Pitching in the AL East also remain a tough assignment, although at least his home park is pitcher-friendly. Snell may see his ERA and WHIP rise to over 3.00 and 1.15, respectively, but he can still be a legit number one starter in 12-team mixed leagues.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Paxton has posted the fifth-best K% (30.4) and FIP (2.95) among all starters with at least 200 IP in the past two seasons. Yet last season's 160.1 IP comfortably set a personal high. He holds a career 3.87 ERA away from Safeco Field, so pitching in Yankee Stadium could offset the potential wins boost. Know your league before deciding whether to sacrifice quantity for quantity from a top-20 starter.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 Snell is going to regress. That's not necessarily a cause for panic, as his ERA could rise a full run and remain a resounding 2.89. His control (9.1 BB%) is lacking for a top-tier ace, but Tampa Bay's southpaw also permitted the lowest contact rate (66.6%) of all qualified starters while sporting the fourth-best swinging-strike rate (15.1%). He could approach 240-250 strikeouts with an innings uptick, so don't flea as long as his price factors in some regression.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
Paxton was excellent last year with a whopping 208 Ks in just 160 innings, but this is also the first time he ever pitched above 140 innings. While the ceiling is clearly exciting with Paxton, re-injury is a significant risk, but he is moving from one of the best pitching parks in Seattle to one of the worst at Yankee Stadium.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros