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Who Should I Draft?

Brandon Woodruff or Nolan Arenado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Brandon Woodruff
SP - MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
64%
Recommended by
35 of 55 experts
36%
Recommended by
20 of 55 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 40# 43
Best Rank# 18# 12
Worst Rank# 87# 80
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 37# 33
Best Rank# 32# 30
Worst Rank# 50# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs85
Home Runs2031
RBI97
Stolen Bases2
Batting Avg.274
Strikeouts19195
Wins11
Saves0
ERA3.45
WHIP1.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 43# 45
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 29# 44
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 38# 52
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 44# 70
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 37# 46
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 39# 42
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 52
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 41# 42
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 37# 80
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 36# 48
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 26# 38
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 46# 53
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 22# 45
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 38# 66
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 38# 51
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 31# 45
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 25# 41
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 43
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 18# 44
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 41# 58
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 32# 43
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 25# 42
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 41# 45
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 35# 55
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 25# 63
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 27# 58
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 21# 80
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 33# 34
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 48# 56
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 39# 55
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 39# 44
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 35# 74
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 39# 63
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 40# 47
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 30# 59
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 32# 19
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 32
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 42# 41
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 43# 19
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 43# 42
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 43# 40
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 44# 23
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 46# 39
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 46# 36
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 46# 44
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 47# 27
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 48# 40
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 48# 29
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 53# 41
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 54# 35
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 58# 45
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 59# 22
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 70# 56
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 82# 44
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 87# 12
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Brandon Woodruff
SP - MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs23
   
Home Runs98
   
RBI26
   
Stolen Bases0
   
Batting Avg.253
   
Strikeouts9120
   
Wins3
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.05
   
WHIP0.99
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Brandon Woodruff
SP - MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs85
   
Home Runs2031
   
RBI97
   
Stolen Bases2
   
Batting Avg.274
   
Strikeouts19195
   
Wins11
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.45
   
WHIP1.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Brandon Woodruff
SP - MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Brandon Woodruff (2-1) took the tough-luck loss Thursday against the Phillies, allowing one run on two hits and two walks in 6.2 innings. He struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Thu, May 6th
Nolan Arenado came to the plate in the third inning on Monday, trailing 5-2 with two on and two out, and unloaded a three-run home run to left field off of Mets starter Joey Lucchesi to tie the game. Arenado finished the evening 1-for-3 with a walk as well.
Lucas Spence
Tue, May 4th
 Brandon Woodruff pitched to a no-decision Saturday against the Dodgers, allowing two runs on six hits and one walk across six innings. He struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, May 2nd
Nolan Arenado went 3-for-4 with a walk, a single, a double, a triple, two runs scored, and three RBI in a 12-5 win over the Pirates on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, May 1st
 Brandon Woodruff (2-0) earned the win Sunday against the Cubs, tossing six scoreless innings while allowing two hits and two walks. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Apr 25th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-5 with two doubles and two RBI in a 7-3 win over the Pirates on Friday.
Lucas Spence
Fri, Apr 30th
 Brandon Woodruff (1-0) allowed one run on one hit and three walks while striking out seven over six innings against the Padres on Monday, earning the win.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Apr 20th
Nolan Arenado made his presence felt all over the field on Tuesday, going 2-for-4 with two doubles and an RBI while also making a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in foul territory to retire Bryce Harper.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Apr 28th
 Brandon Woodruff allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk while striking out six across six innings Tuesday against the Cubs. He did not factor into the decision.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Apr 14th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-4 with an RBI single in a win over Cincinnati on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Apr 24th
Notes 
 There were some skeptics after Woodruff succeeded in 2019 based largely on one pitch - his devastating fastball - but he put those concerns to rest in 2020. His ERA (3.05) and WHIP (0.99) were incredibly strong, particularly when you consider that he struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings. Woodruff's fastball hits rests at 96 MPH and is one of the better pitches in baseball, but his slider and changeup both made strides last year. The Brewers are reportedly planning to add about 100 innings to their starter's workloads last season, so pencil Woodruff in for roughly 175 extremely strong frames. You can survive with him as your fantasy ace, though he's best as an incredibly strong number 2.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Woodruff's 2020 season ranked in the 90th percentile in both xERA and xwOBA. He rates out well according to both FIP and Baseball Savant. It's fair to call him a good-to-great starting pitcher. The question becomes what kind of workload can we expect from Milwaukee's No. 1? Woodruff logged 73 2/3 innings last summer after posting a career-high 121 2/3 frames in 2019. The Brewers plan to add on 100 innings to each of their SP's workloads from last year. If you believe Woodruff will hold up then he's a wildly exciting SP2 in fantasy.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros