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Who Should I Draft?

Bryce Harper or Cody Bellinger (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Cody Bellinger
1B,CF,RF - LAD
Cody Bellinger
Expert
Recommendation
62%
Recommended by
31 of 50 experts
38%
Recommended by
19 of 50 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 11# 12
Best Rank# 7# 5
Worst Rank# 24# 25
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 15
Best Rank# 17# 12
Worst Rank# 18# 19
   
Projections 
   
Runs103100
Home Runs3637
RBI104106
Stolen Bases1414
Batting Average.266.279
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertDTDIL10
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 13
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 11# 13
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 24
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 16
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 11# 12
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 12# 13
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 12
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 11# 12
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 12# 13
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 11# 12
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 11# 12
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 11# 25
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 11# 12
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 12
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 11# 12
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 11# 12
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 13
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 11# 13
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 11# 12
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 10# 12
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 7# 9
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 11# 13
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 11# 12
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 8# 17
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 12# 14
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 12# 17
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 11# 20
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 11# 12
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 9# 10
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 11# 14
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 11# 12
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 10# 9
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 11# 9
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 12# 8
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 12# 11
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 11
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 12# 11
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 12# 11
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 12# 7
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 12# 7
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 13# 11
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 13# 12
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 13# 11
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 13# 8
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 14# 10
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 11
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 14# 10
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 5
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 18# 12
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 24# 7
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Cody Bellinger
1B,CF,RF - LAD
Cody Bellinger
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats190213
   
Runs4133
   
Hits5151
   
Singles2729
   
Doubles910
   
Triples20
   
Home Runs1312
   
RBI3330
   
Stolen Bases86
   
Caught Stealing21
   
Walks4930
   
Strikeouts4342
   
Batting Average.268.239
   
On Base Pct.420.333
   
Slugging Pct.542.455
   
On-base Plus Slugging.962.789
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Cody Bellinger
1B,CF,RF - LAD
Cody Bellinger
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats536552
   
Runs103100
   
Hits141153
   
Singles7381
   
Doubles3031
   
Triples24
   
Home Runs3637
   
RBI104106
   
Stolen Bases1414
   
Caught Stealing44
   
Walks11182
   
Strikeouts155123
   
Batting Average.266.279
   
On Base Pct.394.373
   
Slugging Pct.527.546
   
On-base Plus Slugging.920.919
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Cody Bellinger
1B,CF,RF - LAD
Cody Bellinger
News 
 Bryce Harper (back) is in Sunday's lineup against the Cardinals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Apr 18th
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed on Friday that a recent scan revealed a hairline fracture in Cody Bellinger's leg.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Apr 16th
 Phillies star Bryce Harper could return to the lineup Sunday, according to manager Joe Girardi. The outfielder did not play on Saturday after waking up with lower back tightness.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Apr 18th
The Los Angeles Dodgers placed Cody Bellinger on the injured list with a left calf contusion and recalled Luke Raley on Friday, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Apr 9th
 Bryce Harper is currently day-to-day with lower back tightness, according to Phillies beat reporter Matt Breen.
Ari Koslow
Sat, Apr 17th
Cody Bellinger (calf) is absent from Friday's lineup against the Nationals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Fri, Apr 9th
 Bryce Harper is absent from Saturday‚Äôs lineup against the Cardinals.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Apr 17th
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Cody Bellinger won't play in Friday's home opener after Thursday's off day and that a stint on the injured list has not been ruled out. Bellinger was spiked on Monday but tests revealed no structural damage or stress fractures.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Apr 7th
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Sunday's win over the Braves. The homer was his second of the season and his second in as many days.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Mon, Apr 12th
Cody Bellinger (calf) is absent from Wednesday's lineup against the Athletics.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Apr 7th
Notes 
 In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Bellinger was unable to replicate the magic of his 2019 breakout during last year's shortened season. His average dipped to .239, the worst mark of his career, his power dropped significantly, and he didn't make the same quality of contact. But although he slid backwards in his walk and strikeout rates, his regression there was minimal, and his expected batting average was .284. In other words, Bellinger got worse in 2020, but it wasn't quite as bad as the surface numbers suggest. He did have offseason shoulder surgery after getting injured during a post-season celebration, and that's always a bit worrisome for a hitter. But given that a "down" year for Bellinger at this point is a 30-15 season, he warrants being selected early in the second round.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Harper's 2020 Statcast data wound up being better than his 2015 unanimous MVP campaign. The 28-year-old has become somewhat of a saber-metric darling as his batting average, RBIs, and runs don't also jump off the page. Of course, those stats are pretty relevant for fantasy purposes. While Harper has been running more since his arrival to Philadelphia (15 steals in '19 and eight stolen bases last summer), he just isn't as valuable in traditional 5x5 roto as he is in points leagues or category leagues that utilize OBP. The Statcast data is STRONG, however, and public perception hasn't seem to catch on just yet. Harper is going to be an early-round target of mine, particularly in points and OBP leagues.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Bellinger has begun playing in spring games, so concerns over his offseason shoulder surgery have lessened. Now it's time to figure out if we can rely on him as a fantasy star following an underwhelming 2020. It's worth noting that Bellinger finished strong, posting a 12.5% barrel-rate over his final 37 contests. This was very close to the 13% barrel-rate mark from his MVP-winning 2019. Over these final 37 games Bellinger hit 10 homers with a .960 OPS. 2019 could very well go down as the best season of his career, but that doesn't mean Bellinger can't be a fantasy star for years to come. Don't let him fall too late into Round 2 come draft day.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
  The injury is obviously concerning, but if it winds up being nothing, Bellinger is going to make second round ADP look very silly. Don't forget how great of a player he is, in the middle of the best lineup in the league.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy