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Who Should I Draft?

Bryce Harper or Manny Machado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Expert
Recommendation
90%
Recommended by
46 of 51 experts
10%
Recommended by
5 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 11# 14
Best Rank# 7# 11
Worst Rank# 24# 25
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 20
Best Rank# 17# 16
Worst Rank# 18# 21
   
Projections 
   
Runs10392
Home Runs3635
RBI104105
Stolen Bases1410
Batting Average.266.278
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 14
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 12# 14
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 14# 19
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 14# 15
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 11# 14
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 11# 12
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 7# 17
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 12
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 11# 13
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 12# 14
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 13# 14
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 12# 13
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 16# 17
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 21
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 11# 13
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 11# 14
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 12# 14
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 13# 14
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 11# 14
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 10# 13
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 13# 14
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 11# 13
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 11# 14
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 11# 16
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 14
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 11# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 12# 13
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 11# 14
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 13# 15
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 16
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 11# 15
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 11# 17
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 10# 13
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 7# 25
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 11# 12
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 11# 21
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 12# 14
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 18# 22
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 8# 13
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 12# 13
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 11# 13
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 11# 14
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 9# 16
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 11# 13
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 12# 14
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 11# 13
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 12# 11
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 12# 11
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 13# 12
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 12
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 24# 13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats190224
   
Runs4144
   
Hits5168
   
Singles2739
   
Doubles912
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs1316
   
RBI3347
   
Stolen Bases86
   
Caught Stealing23
   
Walks4926
   
Strikeouts4337
   
Batting Average.268.304
   
On Base Pct.420.370
   
Slugging Pct.542.580
   
On-base Plus Slugging.962.950
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats536587
   
Runs10392
   
Hits141162
   
Singles7396
   
Doubles3029
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs3635
   
RBI104105
   
Stolen Bases1410
   
Caught Stealing44
   
Walks11165
   
Strikeouts155113
   
Batting Average.266.278
   
On Base Pct.394.350
   
Slugging Pct.527.510
   
On-base Plus Slugging.920.860
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
News 
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 3-for-4 with two doubles, a home run, three runs scored, four RBI, and two walks in Thursday's win over the Cubs.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 17th
Manny Machado went 2-for-4 on Wednesday, highlighted by his two-run homer in the third inning. He also singled, drew a walk, and scored a second time later in the game.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Thu, Sep 30th
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk, a run scored, and a stolen base in Wednesday's win over the Cubs.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Sep 16th
Manny Machado went 2-for-5 in the game, hitting two singles, scoring once and driving in a run in the process. He also struck out once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Thu, Sep 23rd
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 1-for-3 with an RBI, a run scored, and a walk in Tuesday's loss to the Chicago Cubs.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Wed, Sep 15th
Manny Machado went 3-for-5 on Tuesday, hitting two solo home runs and a single.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Wed, Sep 22nd
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 2-for-4 with a home run in Thursday's loss to the Rockies. The homer was his 30th of the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Fri, Sep 10th
Manny Machado went 3-for-4 on Saturday, hitting two singles and a double, scoring twice and driving in a run in the process.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 12th
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper went 1-for-1 with a home run, two RBI, and three walks in Wednesday's loss to the Brewers. The homer was his 29th of the season.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Thu, Sep 9th
Manny Machado was 2-for-4 on the day, hitting a double and a homer, driving in two runs and scoring once.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
Notes 
 In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Harper's 2020 Statcast data wound up being better than his 2015 unanimous MVP campaign. The 28-year-old has become somewhat of a saber-metric darling as his batting average, RBIs, and runs don't also jump off the page. Of course, those stats are pretty relevant for fantasy purposes. While Harper has been running more since his arrival to Philadelphia (15 steals in '19 and eight stolen bases last summer), he just isn't as valuable in traditional 5x5 roto as he is in points leagues or category leagues that utilize OBP. The Statcast data is STRONG, however, and public perception hasn't seem to catch on just yet. Harper is going to be an early-round target of mine, particularly in points and OBP leagues.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Being picked at his ceiling, which is always a no-no for me. Was all over him last season with his depressed ADP, now it is too high, and I will have very little shares.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
  Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros