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Who Should I Draft?

Carlos Carrasco or Edwin Diaz (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
Expert
Recommendation
75%
Recommended by
18 of 24 experts
25%
Recommended by
6 of 24 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 23# 28
Best Rank# 12# 14
Worst Rank# 57# 39
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 68# 85
Best Rank# 57# 78
Worst Rank# 100# 99
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts194101
Wins123
Saves030
ERA3.502.97
WHIP1.181.14
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 25# 34
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 30
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 21# 38
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 18# 35
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 20# 30
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 19# 30
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 33# 36
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 27
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 17# 24
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 23# 30
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 26# 31
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 19# 24
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 20# 28
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 19# 32
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 27# 33
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 15# 27
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 23# 39
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 22# 38
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 24# 23
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 30# 20
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 35# 25
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 42# 27
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 48# 14
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 57# 33
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1226
   
Games Started120
   
Innings Pitched68.226.2
   
Wins32
   
Losses41
   
Saves06
   
Blown Saves04
   
Holds01
   
Hits Allowed5518
   
Earned Runs225
   
Home Runs Allowed82
   
Strikeouts8250
   
Walks2714
   
ERA2.911.75
   
WHIP1.211.25
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2964
   
Games Started290
   
Innings Pitched166.262.8
   
Wins123
   
Losses83
   
Saves030
   
Blown Saves012
   
Holds03
   
Hits Allowed14646
   
Earned Runs6521
   
Home Runs Allowed227
   
Strikeouts194101
   
Walks5025
   
ERA3.502.97
   
WHIP1.181.14
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Edwin Diaz
RP - NYM
Edwin Diaz
News 
 Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco won’t pitch the first time through the rotation in the Grapefruit League.
Brad Camara
Sat, Feb 27th
Mets manager Luis Rojas says Edwin Diaz "may be the guy that gets the most chances" in the closer role this year.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Feb 24th
 Carlos Carrasco was absent from the Mets' first full-squad workout on Monday due to a "non-injury related issue," per manager Luis Rojas.
Jon Mathisen
Mon, Feb 22nd
Edwin Diaz avoids arbitration with the New York Mets, agreeing to a deal worth $7 million.
Ryan Evans - Baseballogy
Fri, Jan 15th
 The Indians traded RHP Carlos Carrasco and SS Francisco Lindor to the Mets in exchange for INF Andres Gimenez, RHP Josh Wolfe, OF Isaiah Greene and SS Ahmed Rosario.
Brad Camara
Thu, Jan 7th
 
Notes 
 Carrasco returned strong from his battle with leukemia in 2019 to post a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2020. Pretty much everything was back to normal with Carrasco's production other than his walk rate, where he went from several years under 6% to a 9.6% mark in 2020. That's likely just the oddities of a shortened season, however, and now that Carrasco is with the Mets, his stock should only go up. Not only should the Mets provide him with a better chance at wins, but their infield defense should be above average and Carrasco will play in a more favorable park. In other words, it's all gravy for Carrasco, and he can be drafted as an SP2.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Diaz's overall numbers bounced back in a monstrous way last season. He dropped his ERA from a bloated 5.59 in 2019 to a 1.75, and upped his strikeout rate to a career-best 45.5%. He was among the league leaders in nearly every expected statistic (batting average, slugging percentage wOBA, and ERA), and he cut his HR/9 rate from 2.33 to just 0.70. Diaz's walk rate actually regressed, however, as he issued free passes to nearly five batters per nine innings. That's not often a recipe for success from a closer, but Diaz can survive at that rate if he continues to keep the strikeouts up and limit the long balls. In the end, Diaz does carry some risk given his history, but he should be drafted as one of the upper echelon closers in the game, if not a touch behind the truly elite options.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 10.8 - 3.35 - 1.20
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
16 - 2.00 - 1.15
Jordan Eisen - Field of Vision Sports
 We can completely write off Carrasco's 2019 season as the right-hander was going through a battle with leukemia. The 33-year-old heroically bounced back last summer, posting a 2.91 ERA to go along with a 1.21 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 64 innings. A 9.6% walk rate is mildly concerning, but Carrasco misses enough bats that he should still be viewed as a reliable SP2/3. The perception around him seems to be that he isn't durable, but Carrasco started 30 games three times from 2015-18.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros