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Who Should I Draft?

Chris Paddack or Joe Musgrove (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
Expert
Recommendation
59%
Recommended by
30 of 51 experts
41%
Recommended by
21 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 38
Best Rank# 17# 16
Worst Rank# 67# 77
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 97# 130
Best Rank# 89# 115
Worst Rank# 116# 140
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts146158
Wins1011
Saves00
ERA3.893.92
WHIP1.131.19
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL10-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 38
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 35# 56
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 41
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 43
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 34# 40
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 37# 42
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 34# 42
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 34# 39
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 35# 51
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 44
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 50# 61
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 36# 40
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 21# 39
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 35# 38
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 21# 40
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 35# 57
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 34# 54
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 34# 77
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 36# 40
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 43# 45
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 26# 55
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 30# 55
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 39# 44
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 17# 43
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 27# 52
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 51# 66
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 32# 43
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 34# 38
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 30# 38
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 32# 43
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 28# 16
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 29# 28
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 29
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 38# 28
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 39# 26
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 39# 38
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 32
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 41# 38
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 41# 34
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 41# 33
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 40
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 43# 34
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 43# 31
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 43# 33
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 44# 29
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 44# 37
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 49# 37
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 52# 33
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 62# 34
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 64# 19
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 67# 30
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played128
   
Games Started128
   
Innings Pitched59.240.1
   
Wins41
   
Losses55
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed6033
   
Earned Runs3117
   
Home Runs Allowed145
   
Strikeouts5855
   
Walks1216
   
ERA4.733.86
   
WHIP1.221.24
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2629
   
Games Started2629
   
Innings Pitched139.4154.4
   
Wins1011
   
Losses78
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed127145
   
Earned Runs6067
   
Home Runs Allowed2221
   
Strikeouts146158
   
Walks3139
   
ERA3.893.92
   
WHIP1.131.19
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Joe Musgrove
SP - SD
Joe Musgrove
News 
 Padres pitcher Chris Paddack has been placed on the 10-day IL with inflammation in his right elbow. The move is retroactive to Sept. 12, meaning Paddack will be eligible to return on Sept. 22.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
Joe Musgrove went just 5.2 innings on Tuesday, allowing five earned runs on eight hits and three walks. He did salvage some of his day with six strikeouts and two hits of his own in the game.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Wed, Sep 22nd
 Chris Paddack went six innings on Sunday, allowing three earned runs on six hits. He didn't walk any batters but he also didn't record a strikeout.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 6th
Joe Musgrove went six innings on Friday, allowing three earned runs on four hits and five walks. He did still manage to strike out seven batters though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Sep 11th
 Chris Paddack went 4.2 innings on Monday, allowing one earned run on three hits and no walks. He also struck out five batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 31st
Joe Musgrove went 5.1 inning on Saturday, allowing two earned runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out four batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
 Padres RHP Chris Paddack (oblique) will return from the IL for Monday's start against the Diamondbacks.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Aug 30th
Joe Musgrove only allowed three hits and two walks in his nine innings of work while also striking out nine batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Aug 28th
 San Diego Padres pitcher Chris Paddack (oblique) is expected to throw off a mound soon.
Brad Camara
Wed, Aug 18th
Joe Musgrove pitched six innings of one-run ball, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out nine batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Aug 22nd
Notes 
 Paddack followed up his stellar rookie campaign with a subpar sophomore season, as his ERA rose to 4.73 and his WHIP to 1.22, while his strikeout rate dipped below one per inning. Paddack's bread and butter changeup was as good as ever in 2020 (and even better than in 2019), but his usually outstanding fastball just fell apart. After batters hit .204 with a .391 slugging percentage and .275 wOBA against the pitch in 2019, they hit .308 with a .658 slugging percentage and .407 wOBA against it in 2020. Paddack added a cutter in 2020, and it's possible that the addition of the pitch impacted the way he threw his fastball, as the vertical movement of it fell significantly. Either way, Paddack has too much talent to see his ERA hover around 5.00. There's risk given what we saw last year, but it's baked into his draft price.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Musgrove has been a popular sleeper the last two seasons and now that he's been traded to the Padres, his ADP is surely going to rise. In 2019, Musgrove continued to improve as a pitcher, upping his strikeout rate and adding velocity. But his 2020 season looked like a step back, until he returned from the IL strong, including finishing his season with back-to-back scoreless outings while getting back some of the lost zip on his fastball. Overall, Musgrove's 2020 numbers suggest a breakout waiting to happen, as he built significantly on his gains in 2019, increasing his strikeout rate to 33.1%. His chances for wins should improve dramatically in San Diego, and he's a fine fourth starter with upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  Over his final four starts of the 2020 season Musgrove posted an exceptional 34:5 K:BB ratio in just 22 innings. In 34 starts from the beginning of 2019 through August 2020 his swinging strike rate sat at 11.9%. In September 2020 that figure jumped to 16.3%. So here we are again. Musgrove is an annual breakout candidate among fantasy analysts, and last year's hot finish combined with the move to San Diego won't temper expectations at all. Musgrove is an upside starting pitcher option come draft day.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros