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Who Should I Draft?

Chris Paddack or Lance McCullers Jr. (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
31 of 51 experts
39%
Recommended by
20 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 34# 37
Best Rank# 17# 22
Worst Rank# 67# 67
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 97# 124
Best Rank# 89# 109
Worst Rank# 116# 132
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts146152
Wins1010
Saves00
ERA3.893.72
WHIP1.131.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL10-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 46
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 35# 44
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 45
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 24# 32
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 28# 43
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 34# 51
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 37# 49
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 34# 41
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 39# 44
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 34# 40
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 35# 43
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 51
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 36# 37
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 21# 34
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 35# 37
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 48
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 21# 48
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 35# 52
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 34# 44
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 34# 49
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 36# 38
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 29# 36
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 26# 43
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 30# 32
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 39# 40
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 17# 67
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 27# 32
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 32# 44
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 34# 40
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 30# 32
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 32# 37
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 31# 22
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 38# 36
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 39# 28
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 40# 39
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 41# 32
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 41# 40
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 41# 28
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 43# 39
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 43# 36
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 43# 35
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 43# 39
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 44# 30
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 44# 25
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 49# 31
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 50# 41
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 51# 49
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 52# 41
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 62# 47
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 64# 23
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 67# 44
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1211
   
Games Started1211
   
Innings Pitched59.255.1
   
Wins43
   
Losses53
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed6044
   
Earned Runs3124
   
Home Runs Allowed145
   
Strikeouts5856
   
Walks1220
   
ERA4.733.93
   
WHIP1.221.16
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2626
   
Games Started2626
   
Innings Pitched139.4144.2
   
Wins1010
   
Losses77
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed127126
   
Earned Runs6060
   
Home Runs Allowed2216
   
Strikeouts146152
   
Walks3148
   
ERA3.893.72
   
WHIP1.131.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Chris Paddack
SP - SD
Chris Paddack
Lance McCullers Jr.
SP - HOU
Lance McCullers Jr.
News 
 Padres pitcher Chris Paddack has been placed on the 10-day IL with inflammation in his right elbow. The move is retroactive to Sept. 12, meaning Paddack will be eligible to return on Sept. 22.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed three runs over six innings of work against the Angels on Thursday. His final line included two hits, four walks, five strikeouts, and the loss. Houston ultimately fell to Los Angeles by a score of 3-2.
Andersen Pickard
Fri, Sep 24th
 Chris Paddack went six innings on Sunday, allowing three earned runs on six hits. He didn't walk any batters but he also didn't record a strikeout.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 6th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed three runs (two earned) over six innings of work against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. His final line included seven hits, two walks, eight strikeouts, and the no-decision. Houston ultimately fell to Arizona by a score of 6-4 in 10 innings.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Sep 19th
 Chris Paddack went 4.2 innings on Monday, allowing one earned run on three hits and no walks. He also struck out five batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 31st
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed one run (a solo homer) over six innings of work against the Angels on Sunday. His final line included three hits, two walks, seven strikeouts, and the win. Houston ultimately defeated Los Angeles by a score of 3-1.
Andersen Pickard
Sun, Sep 12th
 Padres RHP Chris Paddack (oblique) will return from the IL for Monday's start against the Diamondbacks.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Aug 30th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed two runs over six innings of work against the Mariners on Sunday evening. His final line included four hits, four walks, and seven strikeouts. Houston ultimately defeated Seattle by a score of 11-2.
Andersen Pickard
Tue, Sep 7th
 San Diego Padres pitcher Chris Paddack (oblique) is expected to throw off a mound soon.
Brad Camara
Wed, Aug 18th
Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. threw five scoreless innings en route to earning the no-decision against the Mariners on Tuesday. His final line included four hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Houston ultimately fell to Seattle by a score of 4-0.
Andersen Pickard
Wed, Sep 1st
Notes 
 Paddack followed up his stellar rookie campaign with a subpar sophomore season, as his ERA rose to 4.73 and his WHIP to 1.22, while his strikeout rate dipped below one per inning. Paddack's bread and butter changeup was as good as ever in 2020 (and even better than in 2019), but his usually outstanding fastball just fell apart. After batters hit .204 with a .391 slugging percentage and .275 wOBA against the pitch in 2019, they hit .308 with a .658 slugging percentage and .407 wOBA against it in 2020. Paddack added a cutter in 2020, and it's possible that the addition of the pitch impacted the way he threw his fastball, as the vertical movement of it fell significantly. Either way, Paddack has too much talent to see his ERA hover around 5.00. There's risk given what we saw last year, but it's baked into his draft price.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
McCullers made a successful return from Tommy John surgery after missing the 2019 season and looked almost exactly like the 2018 version of himself. His ERA (3.93) and WHIP (1.16) were within seven-tenths of a point of his 2018 numbers, and his walk and strikeout rates fell just slightly. McCullers relied a bit more on his sinker and less on his curveball than in past years, but the two work well together and he continued to throw them in combination about 80% of the time. In short, what you thought of McCullers heading into 2018 is pretty much what you should think of him now. Unfortunately, that includes concerns about his innings, because after a missed year and 55 innings last year, the chances of him topping 150 innings this season are remote. Buy him at his production, but understand that there's likely a hard cap on his innings total.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros