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Who Should I Draft?

Corbin Burnes or Craig Kimbrel (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
Expert
Recommendation
98%
Recommended by
50 of 51 experts
2%
Recommended by
1 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 20# 61
Best Rank# 14# 35
Worst Rank# 46# 108
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 56# 164
Best Rank# 51# 153
Worst Rank# 60# 233
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts17479
Wins93
Saves024
ERA3.633.65
WHIP1.201.21
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 108
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 17# 55
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 24# 61
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 42# 52
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 24# 72
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 24# 58
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 55
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 76
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 16# 54
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 24# 83
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 38# 69
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 22# 58
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 20# 54
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 26# 74
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 26# 54
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 23# 63
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 19# 63
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 21# 71
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 20# 48
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 25# 65
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 14# 86
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 21# 73
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 32# 89
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 19# 59
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 20# 64
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 19# 63
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 16# 68
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 18# 68
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 18# 98
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 22# 51
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 27# 50
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 40# 63
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 23
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 18# 62
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 14# 58
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 70
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 25# 47
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 18# 58
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 18# 61
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 22# 64
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 20# 42
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 17# 75
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 14# 80
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 20# 67
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 20# 58
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 20# 58
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 15# 39
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 24# 87
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 19# 103
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 16# 98
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 38# 35
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1218
   
Games Started90
   
Innings Pitched60.315.0
   
Wins40
   
Losses11
   
Saves02
   
Blown Saves01
   
Holds03
   
Hits Allowed3710
   
Earned Runs149
   
Home Runs Allowed22
   
Strikeouts8828
   
Walks2412
   
ERA2.115.28
   
WHIP1.021.43
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2956
   
Games Started270
   
Innings Pitched142.154.1
   
Wins93
   
Losses72
   
Saves024
   
Blown Saves011
   
Holds04
   
Hits Allowed12040
   
Earned Runs5722
   
Home Runs Allowed188
   
Strikeouts17479
   
Walks5126
   
ERA3.633.65
   
WHIP1.201.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Corbin Burnes
SP,RP - MIL
Corbin Burnes
Craig Kimbrel
RP - CWS
Craig Kimbrel
News 
 Corbin Burnes (11-4) earned the win Saturday against the Mets, allowing one run on five hits in seven innings. He walked one and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 25th
Craig Kimbrel had a rough ninth inning, allowing a one out double followed by two walks and a sacrifice fly that scored a run. He did chip in two strikeouts though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Mon, Sep 13th
 Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Saturday against the Cubs, allowing three runs on six hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out 11.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 19th
Craig Kimbrel pitched the seventh inning on Saturday, allowing one hit while striking out three batters.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sun, Sep 5th
 Corbin Burnes (10-4) earned the win in a masterpiece Saturday against Cleveland. He threw eight no-hit innings while issuing one walk and striking out 14.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Craig Kimbrel came into the ninth with a seven run lead but ended up giving up three earned runs on two hits and a walk. He would strike out two batters though.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Sat, Aug 28th
 Corbin Burnes did not factor into the decision Sunday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on six hits across five innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
Craig Kimbrel pitched one inning, allowing one hit while also striking out one batter to earn his 24th save of the season and first with the White Sox.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Fri, Aug 27th
 Corbin Burnes (9-4) picked up the win Monday against the Giants, allowing one run on four hits across six innings. He walked none and struck out nine.
Connor Rooney
Tue, Aug 31st
Craig Kimbrel didn't allow a ball to leave the infield on Monday, but lost the game after an infield hit, a wild pitch, a sacrifice ground ball, and another wild pitch. He would also walk a batter and strike out two.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Aug 24th
Notes 
 Burnes's raw stuff was apparent to anyone who saw him pitch in 2019, but he simply couldn't stop giving up home runs (17 in 49 innings). The culprit was largely his four-seam fastball, which he threw more than half of the time and against which batters hit .425 with an .823 slugging percentage. In 2020, however, Corbin cut his four-seam fastball usage from 52.5% to just 2.5%. In its place, he relied heavily on a sinker and cutter, both of which worked better for the natural action on his pitches and which were highly effective. Considering that his slider, changeup, and curveball are also huge swing and miss pitches, Burnes's 36.7% strikeout rate from last year shouldn't be considered fluky. Even coming off a Cy Young-caliber season, there's still upside for the 26-year-old, and you should ignore entirely his 2019 disaster.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
As a whole, Kimbrel's 2020 numbers were abysmal. A 5.28 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a walk rate of 17.4%. And yet, there were some encouraging signs. Not only did his strikeout rate bounce back to 40.6%, but he was actually an elite pitcher after his first four outings. How elite? He pitched to a 1.42 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP, and stuck out 53.1% of the batters he faced. It wasn't perfect, as Kimbrel still walked five batters per nine innings over that stretch. But he showed that he still has some has left in the tank. Although he never reclaimed the closer's job despite his strong finish, it's a good bet that the Cubs hand him the ninth-inning role to start, as they try to rebuild his trade value in the final year of his deal. That means Kimbrel should at least get save chances for the first several weeks of the season, and, as such, should be drafted as low-end second closer with just a modicum of upside.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Similar to Zach Plesac, Burnes completely altered his pitch mix en route to a breakout season. The right-hander ditched his four-seam/slider combo in exchange for a plethora of sinkers and cutters. The decision worked to perfection as Burnes' 2.11 ERA was backed up by a 2.99 xFIP and a 3.18 xERA. His HR/FB rate appears to be wildly unsustainable, but Burnes has always been talented and he now has the blueprint to excel with. He's an exciting SP2 entering draft season.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Over his final 14 appearances (12 2/3 IP) Kimbrel registered a 27:7 K:BB ratio to go along with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. I'd like confirmation from the Cubs that he's entering the season as the closer before going "all in" on drafting him, but as long as he gets the ninth inning I'll be interested. Kimbrel has likely turned off many fantasy managers with some ugly blowup performances the past two years. This creates a buying opportunity. Kimbrel is a perfect candidate to draft for those who prefer to wait on saves.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros